Linking current vulnerability with

WEAP

Bill Dougherty, SEI-Boston

9-13 May 2005Akosomba, Ghana

Overview • Structure of the

vulnerability component of the WEAP+ training workshop

• Basic concepts• Framework for vulnerability

assessment for use in WEAP

• The first of two working group exercises

Structure of Vulnerability Training Component

• Aims: to provide a methodology

for analysis of stakeholder perspectives

to indicate how vulnerability assessment links with WEAP & MCA-WEAP

• Approach: presentations and two working group exercises

Basic Concepts (1)

• Vulnerability: degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of environmental change

Basic Concepts (2)

• Vulnerability to climate change is determined by two major factors Character, magnitude and

rate of climatic variation Adaptive capacity, or

ability to cope, of system

Basic Concepts (3)• Vulnerability to climate

change of water resources focuses on: Spatial changes in

precipitation Temporal changes in

precipitation• Water stress: demand for

freshwater > 20% supply• Water scarcity: consumption

< 1,000 m3/cap-yr

Basic Concepts (4)• Vulnerability dimensions are

simply concerns for wellbeing and basic needs

• Vulnerability indicators are aspects of the vulnerability dimensions which can be quantified

Framework for Vulnerability Assessment

among Stakeholders What affects ability to cope? What are the dimensions of

vulnerability? How do vulnerability

dimensions relate to vulnerability indicators?

How is stakeholder output linked to WEAP and MCA-WEAP?

How might vulnerability change?

-Biophysical diagnostics-Socio-ecnomic diagnostics-Institutional diagnostics-Analysis of legal framework

-Analysis of extreme events-Probability of occurence-Trends-Use of climate variability to project future climates

W H E N ?

WHAT HAZARDS?

CLIMATICHAZARDS

ACTORAll users of water

resources

-Identification of actors-Identification of level of vulnerability-Roles and functions

RISK

Action

AREA OF IMPACT

-Evaluation of impacts-Autonomous adaptation

Integrated vulnerability index-Analysis of vulnerability -Indicators-Profiles

WHO AREVULNERABLE

WHERE ARE THE HAZARDS?

What affects ability to cope?

What are the dimensions of vulnerability?

• Possible examples Water: drinking water,

washing water Health: medicine, doctor,

school education Land and resources: land,

food Domestic: clothes, income

source, housing

How do vulnerability dimensions relate to

vulnerability indicators?Vulnerable

groupsData source

Dimension Indicator Unit PeriodTime series

Working Group Exercise Aim

• Simulate processing of information from stakeholder group

• Use and/or translate stakeholder information into inputs useable by WEAP and MCA-WEAP

Working Group Exercise Context

• Location: semi-arid water basin in Country N

• Current climate: low rainfall, recurrent drought

• Socioeconomic: mix of villages and small towns, income stratification

• 5 types of stakeholders: smallholders, pastoralists, traders, village council members, extension workers

Working Group Exercise Steps

• Single large group with individual discussion groups

• In individual discussion groups:•Discuss basic needs•Classify whether met or

unmet•Identify relevant climatic

hazards• In large group:

•Develop vulnerability dimensions

•Construct initial indicators

What affects ability

to cope?