Lisa B. Beever, James W. Beever, Whitney Gray, Dan Trescott, Judy OttSouthwest Florida Chapter of the Audubon SocietySouthwest Florida Chapter of the Audubon Society

January 20, 2011

Climate Ready Estuaries –Partnership with 15 NEPs and EPAPartnership with 15 NEPs and EPA

Barnegat Bay NEP

www.epa.gov/cre

Why Charlotte Harbor NEP?y C a otte a bo

• Host SWFRPC 2• Host SWFRPC 2 decades of storm surge modeling & g ghurricane planning.

• 2001 500-yr & 2008 100 d ht100-yr droughts.

• 2004 Category 4 land-falling storm; Hurricanefalling storm; Hurricane Charley.

• Climate-awareClimate aware population.

North Captiva Island breach

USGS photo Mote Marine LaboratoryBrad Robbins, Michelle Gitfler, Anamari Boyes

ComprehensiveComprehensive Conservation and Management PlanManagement Plan

SG-Q: Build capacity for communities and their local leadership totheir local leadership to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change through joint efforts.

Projects in support of SG-Q• Regional Vulnerability Assessment (2007-2009)• Punta Gorda Adaptation Plan (CRE 2008-2009)Punta Gorda Adaptation Plan (CRE 2008 2009)• Vulnerability Assessment Lite (2009-2010)• CC Environmental Indicators (CRE 2009-2010)CC Environmental Indicators (CRE 2009 2010)• Model Ordinances/Comp Plan (CRE 2009-2010)• Punta Gorda Comp Plan amend (2009 2010)• Punta Gorda Comp Plan amend (2009-2010)• Salt Marsh Adaptation (2009-2012)• Seagrass response to SLR (2009)• Seagrass response to SLR (2009)• Lee County Resiliency Plan (2009-2010)

C t l E l i l M d l (CRE 2010 2011)• Conceptual Ecological Models (CRE 2010-2011)• Bonita Springs Adaptation Plan (Battelle pilot)

Significant Potential Climate Changes & Grouped EffectsChanges & Grouped Effects

• Air Temperature and ChemistryW t T t d Ch i t• Water Temperature and Chemistry

• Climate Instability• Altered Hydrology• Altered Hydrology• Sea Level Rise• Geomorphic Changesp g• Habitat and Species Changes• Land Use Changes

H E• Human Economy• Human Health• Infrastructure• Infrastructure• Variable Risk

Potential Impacts of Climate ChangeCritical Facilities Cultural ResourcesCritical FacilitiesEmergency servicesCommunicationsSolid wasteWater supply and wastewater Transportation

Cultural ResourcesHistoric districtsLighthouses

TransportationEnergy supply Human Health

Weather-related mortalityInfectious diseasesAir Quality: respiratory illnesses

Climate ChangeWater ResourcesChanges in water supplyWater qualityIncreased competition for water

Climate Change Drivers and Stressors

Coastal ResourcesErosion of beaches

Increased competition for water

Wildlife and

Erosion of beachesInundate coastal landsCosts to defend communitiesEconomic

ActivitiesAgricultureForestry

EcosystemsShift in ecological zonesLoss of habitat and speciesDamage to habitats

yTourismBuildingOcean economyMining

NOAA Tide Station in Fort MyersNOAA Tide Station in Fort Myers Rate of change = approximately 1 inch per decade

Mean Sea Level Trend 1965 – 2006 from NOAA Tide Station at Fort Myers

In the last 100 years SW Fl has:In the last 100 years, SW Fl has:

• Increased avg air temp 1.2o F, Arcadia 0.• Increased annual # days >90o F by 12Increased annual # days >90 F by 12.• No change in total rainfall.

I d % i i i b 6• Increased % rain in rainy season by 6.• Increased sea level by 8 inches.

David Zierden, State Climatologist

Patterns of Average TemperaturePatterns of Average Temperature

1961-1979 from cool period1961 1979 from cool period

USGCRP 2009

Adaptation Plan for a small city,Punta Gorda

Objective 2.4.2: Address the impacts of sea level rise, and seek strategies to

b t it ff t thcombat its effects on the shoreline of the City.

Policy 2.4.2.1: The City will work with the SWFRPC to d t i t ti ldetermine potential sea level rise impacts on the Coastal Planning Area.

Measurement: Completion d i l t ti fand implementation of

developed coastal studies or development of model scenarios.

April 9, 2009 Public Workshop• Card Game (brainstorm & prioritize vulnerabilities)

www.thiagi.com/games.html Group Scoop

April 9, 2009 Public Workshop• Envelopes Game (brainstorm adaptation options)

April 9, 2009 Public Workshop• Thumbs up/down (Consensus on vulnerabilities)

Vulnerabilities

Altered Hydrology Habitat Degradation

SWFRPC Grouped Vulnerabilities Citizen Priority Vulnerabilities

Vulnerabilities

Altered HydrologyStorm Severity/Climate InstabilityWater Temperature & Chemistry

Habitat Degradation

Inadequate Water Supply

FloodingHabitat and Species Changes

Sea Level RiseGeomorphic (Landform) Changes

Flooding

Unmanaged Growth

Water Quality Degradation

Air Temperature & ChemistryInfrastructure

Human Economy

Education

Lack of Money/FinanceHuman Economy

Human HealthLand Use Changes

Economy

Fire

InsuranceVariable Risk Insurance

June 2, 2009 Public Workshop• Board Game (Locate, prioritize, discard adaptations)

Prioritized Vulnerabilities The top consensus adaptations for each area of vulnerability include:

1. Fish and Wildlife Habitat Degradation; 1. Seagrass protection and restoration

2. Inadequate Water Supply; 2. Xeriscaping and native plant landscaping.adequa e a e Supp y; e scap g a d a e p a a dscap g

3. Flooding; 3. Explicitly indicating in the comprehensive plan which areas will retain natural shorelinesshorelines.

4. Unchecked or Unmanaged Growth; 4. Constraining locations for certain high risk infrastructure

5. Water Quality Degradation; 5. Restrict fertilizer use.

6. Education and Economy and Lack of F d

6. Promote green building alternatives th h d ti t i i tiFunds; through education, taxing incentives, green lending.

7. Fire; 7. Drought preparedness planning

8. Availability of Insurance. 8. Implementation of the other adaptations, particularly 3 and 4.

Alternative Rolling Bulkhead with Gradual Sand Elevating the Armored Dike

A hypothetical comparison of relative costs of various sea-level rise adaptations for the City of Punta Gorda

Alternative Rolling Easement

Bulkhead with Fill to 6 feet (The Galveston Solution)

Gradual Sand Filling to Keep Pace (Volk 2008)

Elevating the Infrastructure (The Venice Solution)

Armored Dike with 4 Major Pumps (The New Orleans  Solution)

h lShoreline

Less than total: set at the boundary between current uplands with freshwater wetlands 

d tid l t l tl d

$58,332,852 $1,530,358,919 $76,500,000 $1,269,520,000 $2,157,450,984

and tidal coastal wetlands. Total: with irregular outer mangrove shoreline without overwash mangrove islands or many convoluted embayments

$69,770,641 $1,554,071,794 $91,500,000 $1,269,520,000 $3,773,093,875

y yTotal: with irregular outer mangrove shoreline with convoluted embayments but not the overwash mangrove  islands with canals open to navigation

$77,777,108 $1,569,436,395 $102,000,000 $1,269,520,000 $3,868,536,601

with canals open to navigation

Charlotte County- Punta Gorda Metropolitan Planning OrganizationMetropolitan Planning Organization

Hazard Mitigation StrategyHazards Addressed

Mitigation Options Storm Surge

Sea Level Rise

ErosionRainfall Flooding

Hurricane Force Wind

Wildfire

Accommodation Mitigation Options

Mitigation and Recovery Planning Elevation Stormwater Drainage Design and Material Modifications Protection Mitigation Options

Structural Shoreline Protection Non‐Structural Shoreline Protection Relocation/Retreat Mitigation Options

Relocation and Right of Way Acquisition Monitor and Eventual Retreat

City of Punta GordaW t T t t Pl t

• Replace 45 year-old dam structureWater Treatment Plant

• Add groundwater supply and membrane process (instead of reservoir expansion)E d f iliti f th• Expand facilities for growth.

City of Punta Gorda4 Comp Plan Major Issues

1 Transportation Concurrency Exemption Area1. Transportation Concurrency Exemption Area2. Energy Efficiency Alternatives 3. Climate Adaptation/SLR Strategies3. Climate Adaptation/SLR Strategies4. Declining Tax Revenues & Budget Cutbacks

Goal 1: Temporal and Spatial ContextGoal 2: Armoring Filling Diking (Protection)Goal 2: Armoring, Filling, Diking (Protection)Goal 3: Redesign (Accommodation)Goal 4: Planned Relocation (Managed Retreat)

Source of Graphic: Micheal Volk, UF

Lee Co. Resiliency Strategy

• Outlines the essential elements of a resiliency strategyS i l biliti• Summarizes vulnerabilities

• Summarizes input received from Lee County leadership and constitutional officersleadership and constitutional officers

• Identifies strategies that Lee County could pursue to increase resiliency to the identified vulnerabilitiesincrease resiliency to the identified vulnerabilities

• Identifies ways to incorporate climate change resiliency into the Comprehensive Plan

• Outlines monitoring and evaluation strategies.

Online SurveyYears in Florida

Years in Lee CountyImpacts of Hurricane Charley on

department assets personnel

Online SurveyYears in Lee County

Perceptions of changes in weather, water quality, fishing

and wildlife

department assets, personnel and processes

County CommissionersDivision Heads

Age & location of facilities What is the most important thing

Constitutional Officers

Age & location of facilities Potential for facilities to be

storm-hardenedPotential energy-saving

for Lee County to do to prepare for climate change?

What is the worst thing Lee County could do to prepare forPotential energy saving

measures for facilities and staffCounty could do to prepare for

climate change?

InterviewsReaction to online survey

Reaction to draft Potential effects of climate change on the department

Did we leave out anything important?

Who else should we talk to?

change on the departmentLee County’s greatest

vulnerability to climate change

County CommissionersDivision Heads

C tit ti l Offi

How important do you think it is for Lee County to try to deal with

Avoidance, minimization, mitigation and adaptation ideas

Constitutional Officers

for Lee County to try to deal with climate change in an organized

manner?

mitigation and adaptation ideas

Vulnerabilities identified by IntervieweesBuildings and County InfrastructureBuildings and County Infrastructure•Impacts to roads from increased creek and stream flows•More frequent replacement of materials

Coastal Protections•Impacts to beaches and the demand for beach renourishment•More frequent storm events with associated erosionCoastal Economies associated erosion•Declining property values impacting the County’s

ability to maintain infrastructure and provide adequate services•Impact on tourism.•Hotter temperatures will increase the cost of

Health and Human Services•Increased impact on the economically disadvantaged•Possible modification of work hours due to hotter

•Hotter temperatures will increase the cost of workers’ compensation.

temperatures.

Land Use Planning and Growth Management•Possible reduction of migration into the area and a possible increase in migration out of the

Water and Wastewater•Could experience strains on our freshwater aquifers•Surface water management issuesarea.

•Residents may experience increased response times for emergency services

Surface water management issues

Economic Development•Higher utility bills

Natural Systems and Resources•Concerns regarding Lake Okeechobee flows•Could experience impacts to landscaping and plantsHigher utility bills

•More frequent adverse working conditions for outdoor workers

•Could impact sea life and the estuary•Destruction of ecological systems which could severely impact our tourism industryEducation and Outreach

•Could impact nearly every area of how the County functions impacting the budget and demandingfunctions impacting the budget and demanding more interdepartmental and intergovernmental coordination•Potential for increased variability of weather –more rainfall during and longer periods of drought

Multiple Public Water Suppliers

“An often overlooked consumer of energy isconsumer of energy is the municipal potable water service.”

• Acquire land for flood/water supply. • Acquire land for recharge.• Agricultural water reuseAgricultural water reuse.• Reduce local GHG emissions.• Build climate-friendly landscaping into codes and educate

homeowners and require in County landscapinghomeowners and require in County landscaping.• Capture digester gases from wastewater reclamation plants and use

them to produce electricity.Ch di th t i t f t• Change ordinances that require turf grass, etc.

• Charge more for treated water similar to Sarasota (Sliding scale.)• Use and encourage use of cisterns/rain barrels.• Conservation education• Consider climate change in water supply planning.• Control fertilizer use (see www fertilizesmart com)Control fertilizer use. (see www.fertilizesmart.com)• Control invasive exotic species.• Create redundancy in water supply

M i t i d i ki t t d d Page 1 of 2

• Maintain drinking water standards.• Engage in drought preparedness planning =Already Implementing Measure

g

• Encourage composting and mulching to reduce irrigation. • Identify alternative water sources, including Desalinization.

Id tif fli ti li i b t• Identify conflicting policies between programs.• Improve plant efficiency through the installation of more energy

efficient motors and variable frequency drives on water pumps.• Improve water distribution systems and leak detection.• Improved system of retaining rainwater.• Increase stormwater management capacity.g p y• Increase tree cover to reduce evaporation from ground.• Install rainfall sensors to reduce automatic irrigation.• Minimize impervious surfaces to increase recharge• Minimize impervious surfaces to increase recharge.• Minimize use of potable water for irrigation. • Protect groundwater sources. • Reduce runoff into streams.• Reinforce existing infrastructure.• Restore natural accretion processes. Page 2 of 2p• Use native plants in landscaping. • Use of reclaimed water for irrigation.

g

Existing Env. Indicators

• EPA RequiredEPA Required• 54 named

12 i it b t• 12 priority, but gaps in info

• No SG indicators.

General ProcessGeneral Process

• Inventory potential indicators (vulnerabilities)Inventory potential indicators (vulnerabilities)• Survey scientists and interested people

S l t t i di t f f th t d• Select top indicators for further study• Identify monitoring data sources, etc.• Survey scientists and interested people• Select top indicatorsSelect top indicators• Prepare one-page sheets to amend report

Ad t th h itt• Adopt through committee

Climate Change IndicatorsClimate Change Indicators

• Changes to precipitation trend/patternsChanges to precipitation trend/patterns, including extreme precipitation

• Sea level rise• Sea-level rise• Water temperature• Phenology (biological life cycle events)• Habitat migrationg

172 Individual Candidate Indicators

2020Respondents

1953

2009

Landward Migration of seagrass in Charlotte Harbor East/West

Range Expansions?Range Expansions?

Longnose Killifish (Fundulus similis) Florida White, male (Appias drusilla)g ( )Audubon Guide to Fishes 2002Northern extent, Marco IslandFound at Sanibel Causeway 2010

Butterflies thru binocs, Glassberg et al 2000Northern extent, Monroe CountyFound at Estero Bay 2010

Citrus Phenology-Lake Alfredgy

250

300

200

er 1

150

ys fr

om O

ctob

50

100Day

0

50

59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09

195

196

196

196

196

196

197

197

197

197

197

198

198

198

198

198

199

199

199

199

199

200

200

200

200

200

Year

First Differentiation First Bloom Wave

Conceptual Ecological Modelsp g• Organize thought in graphic way

L t k h th• Lay out key hypotheses• Identify important linkages which tie

management to natural responses• Provide a strategy for researchgy• Communicate complex ideas to managers,

citizens and decision-makerscitizens and decision makers• Managers use CEMs to crystallize large

amounts of science and place projectamounts of science and place project decisions into context.

Other Related EffortsOther Related Efforts

• Everglades Restoration ScienceEverglades Restoration Science Coordination Group Climate Change CEM

• NOAA Marine and Estuarine Integrated• NOAA Marine and Estuarine Integrated Conceptual Ecological Model for Florida Shelf areasShelf areas.

• We are leveraging each of these efforts.• Using some lessons learned.

CEM HierarchyDri er Th j t l d i i f th t hDriver - The major external driving forces that have large‐scale influences on natural systems. Drivers can be natural forces (e.g., sea‐level rise) or anthropogenic .Stressors - The physical or chemical changes that occur within natural systems that are brought about by the drivers, and which are directly responsible for significant changes in the biological components, patterns and relationships in natural systemspatterns and relationships in natural systems.Ecological Effects – The responses caused by the stressors. The links between stressors, effects and attributes are diagrammatic representations of the working hypotheses that explain changes.Attributes - A parsimonious subset of all potentialbiological elements or components of natural systems, which are representative of the overall ecological

Number of Roseate

Spoonbills

which are representative of the overall ecological conditions of the system.Measures - The specific feature(s) of each attribute to be monitored to determine how well that attribute is

di j d i d h dSpoonbills responding to projects designed to correct the adverse effects of the stressors (i.e., to determine the success of the project).

CEM HierarchyDri er Th j t l d i i f th t hDriver - The major external driving forces that have large‐scale influences on natural systems. Drivers can be natural forces (e.g., sea‐level rise) or anthropogenic .Stressors - The physical or chemical changes that occur Canals

within natural systems that are brought about by the drivers, and which are directly responsible for significant changes in the biological components, patterns and relationships in natural systems

FW confined time/space

Scour SAV, FW timing patterns and relationships in natural systems.

Ecological Effects – The responses caused by the stressors. The links between stressors, effects and attributes are diagrammatic representations of the

e/spacep gg

working hypotheses that explain changes.Attributes - A parsimonious subset of all potentialbiological elements or components of natural systems, which are representative of the overall ecological

Prey BaseLoss of

Prey Base

Number of Roseate

Spoonbills

which are representative of the overall ecological conditions of the system.Measures - The specific feature(s) of each attribute to be monitored to determine how well that attribute is

di j d i d h dSpoonbills responding to projects designed to correct the adverse effects of the stressors (i.e., to determine the success of the project).

CEM HierarchyDri er Th j t l d i i f th t hI thDriver - The major external driving forces that have large‐scale influences on natural systems. Drivers can be natural forces (e.g., sea‐level rise) or anthropogenic .Stressors - The physical or chemical changes that occur

Improve the water mgmt

practice,

iwithin natural systems that are brought about by the drivers, and which are directly responsible for significant changes in the biological components, patterns and relationships in natural systems

increases sheetflow,

patterns and relationships in natural systems.Ecological Effects – The responses caused by the stressors. The links between stressors, effects and attributes are diagrammatic representations of the

decreases salinities & Increases

SAVworking hypotheses that explain changes.Attributes - A parsimonious subset of all potentialbiological elements or components of natural systems, which are representative of the overall ecological

SAVs

increases waterfowlPop lation

Number of Roseate

Spoonbills

which are representative of the overall ecological conditions of the system.Measures - The specific feature(s) of each attribute to be monitored to determine how well that attribute is

di j d i d h d

Population

increases # of rosettespoonbillsSpoonbills responding to projects designed to correct the adverse

effects of the stressors (i.e., to determine the success of the project).

spoonbills

Rainfall Sea Level Storm i t it

Air Land Use P ti

H d l

Rainfall Rise intensityTemperature

Coastal

Practices

HabitatHydrology regimes, drought

Storm surge

Saltwater Intrusion

Coastal Sedimen

tation

Shoreline Hardening

Water Quality

HabitatExtent/Composition

Bio-Diversity & community

Timing of Life-Cycle

EventsLocation/Extent of Wetland/ Submerged/E

Canal Construct

ion &

Economic Losses

ychangesPhysical 

stress on/failure of infrastructureIntroduction

and Survival of Invasive

gmergent Habitats

Dredgingof Invasive Species

Climate Change Planning• Provide tools to explain and track local climate

change to citizens and decision-makers• Have staff & citizens identify climate vulnerabilities

and adaptation options• Build on personal experiences with climate

challenges• Rely on local creativity for addressing challenges• Use existing processes to build climate resiliency

in local government• Give “credit” for existing good practices• Provide options for elected officials

Director: Lisa B. Beever, PhD, AICPDirector: Lisa B. Beever, PhD, AICPDirector: Lisa B. Beever, PhD, AICPDirector: Lisa B. Beever, PhD, AICPDeputy Director: Liz Donley , esq.Deputy Director: Liz Donley , esq.

Communications Manager: Maran HilgendorfCommunications Manager: Maran HilgendorfProgram Scientist: Judy Ott, MSProgram Scientist: Judy Ott, MS

1926 Vi t i A F t M FL 339011926 Vi t i A F t M FL 33901 341434141926 Victoria Ave, Fort Myers FL 339011926 Victoria Ave, Fort Myers FL 33901--34143414239/338239/338--2556, Toll free 866/8352556, Toll free 866/835--57855785

Fax 239/338Fax 239/338--2560 chnep@swfrpc org2560 chnep@swfrpc orgFax 239/338Fax 239/338 2560, chnep@swfrpc.org 2560, chnep@swfrpc.org www.CHNEP.orgwww.CHNEP.org