November 2016

Green SquareAn evidence-based policy brief: high density livings impact on climate change

The Green Square Renewal Area is a redevelopment plan informed by the City of Sydney which seeks to transform Alexandria, Zetland, Waterloo and

Beaconsfield with sustainable design and approaches. Overall, the aim of this policy brief supported by relevant evidence, is to assess the effect that high

density living has on climate change. The integral aspects which will inform this brief directly correlate to the Infrastructure and Strategy Plan whereby redevelopment will consist of mitigation and adaptation techniques to

decrease adverse effects that city living can pose on the climate.

The brief herein is for the City of Sydney and the Sydney Local Health District. Policy recommendations will be provided through-out as to what the best methodologies in mitigating environmental distress caused by high density

living is.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3

The Problem 3

Policy Options 3

Policy Recommendations 4

REVIEW OF EVIDENCE 5

Background 5

Methods 5

Sydney’s Coastal Environment 6

The Urban Heat Island Effect 6

Urban Green Space 7

Ventilation (External and Internal) 7

Public Transportation 8

Healthy Equity 8

Discussion 10

IMPLICATIONS FOR INCORPORATION INTO INFRASTRUCTURE AND STRATEGY PLAN 11

APPENDIX 13

REFERENCES 19

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe Problem:

It is an irrefutable fact that the Earth’s climate is fluctuating due to human activities. These changes

include increased temperatures on land and in oceans resulting in the melting of polar ice caps

which inherently raises sea levels. The aforementioned is important because Sydney is located in a

coastal zone putting it an increased risk for extreme weather events related to sea level rise (NSW

has experienced sea level rise by 2.1 millimetres per year) and flooding. Extreme heat events are

also likely to increase as a direct result of climate change. This would contribute to heat related

illness and death, increased mosquito-borne diseases, food-borne disease and increased air

pollution.

There are several tactics which can mitigate adverse climate change impacts to protect the health of

Australians, one of which is the proper design of human settlements like Green Square. Evidence

reveals that high density environments have the potential to mitigate climate change events if built

with proper sustainable construction designs.

Policy Options:

Economic incentives and disincentives incorporated into building standards will likely encourage

businesses, homeowners and contractors to incorporate sustainable approaches into design plans.

Below are policy options:

Market Based: These would include cap-and-trade schemes which place a cap on the permitted level

of emissions, credit schemes which grant credits to those who reduce overall emissions beyond

baseline and carbon taxes which creates tax structures relating to greenhouse gas emissions.

Regulatory Programs: Incorporation of energy standards into the design of buildings.

Subsidisation or Grant Programs: The NSW or Commonwealth government could subsidise

contractors, businesses and home owners when buildings are built with sustainability in mind.

Reporting Requirements: This would include minimum energy efficiency requirements and the

disclosure of energy rating systems whereby buildings would be rated based off energy

performance.

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Policy Recommendations:

A cumulative approach is likely to be most effective when creating sustainable design policies and

below are recommendations:

Policy Option 1: Statutory Enforcement of NSW Environmental Policy Building Sustainability Index; BASIX 2004

Require developers to submit design plans which meet the State Environmental Planning Policy

(SEPP) guidelines by implementing a carbon tax or cap-and-trade schemes thereby limiting

greenhouse gas emissions.

Policy Option 2: Non-Statutory Enforcement of Green Star Tools Program

Demonstrate compliance with sustainable development strategies, this would include: improving

indoor air quality, decreasing energy use, increasing public transport, reusing water, employing

environmentally sustainable materials, efficiently using land, and incorporating urban green space.

Policy Option 3: Financial Incentives for Implementation of Sustainable Construction Designs

This would include rebates for use of specific materials in construction designs (solar panels, water

systems and cooling/heating systems), grants provided to schools and towns to incorporate

renewable energy use, and waiving planning permit fees when there is demonstrated commitment

towards environmental efficiency.

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REVIEW OF EVIDENCE Background

Scientists have long grappled with the idea that humans, mostly in developed countries, are

negatively impacting the earth’s climate through various lifestyle factors. This tension is further

exacerbated with a rapidly increasing world population. Therefore, to ease our carbon footprint,

new bodies of evidence with regard to adaptation and mitigation strategies in our built environment

are arising [1]. While there is no “one size fits all” approach to ease climate change impacts in built

environments with different geographical contexts, there is evidence to support that high density

living designs, if done with proper construction techniques, are more sustainable than low density

living dwellings.

The synthesis of scientific evidence below reveals the primary areas of concern with regard to high

density living and its impact on the environment. Further, the evidence seeks to reveal the best-

practice methodologies for overall construction techniques to inform sustainable approaches to ease

climate change impacts [2]. Effective sustainable design is dependent upon geographical location,

i.e. Sydney is considered a humid, subtropical environment and its weather is highly influenced by

the ocean. Therefore, evidence which supported construction designs in climates comparable to

Sydney were given more clout than those of drastically different environments.

The overall purpose of this review is to inform best practice methodologies to mitigate climate

change through sustainable development. Green Square should be planned with attention paid not

only to Sydney’s climate but, also to construction techniques which maximise health promotion

principles by decreasing carbon footprint impacts through sustainable designs.

Methods:

The research questions which I attempted to answer through a systematic search on Scopus were: Is

high density living sustainable and what are the best approaches to mitigate high density living’s

impact on climate change? Next, I developed five keyword searches to properly encapsulate the

evidence base; these included high density living AND climate change (144 results, 18 relevant), high

density living AND urban heat islands (14 results, 7 relevant), high density living AND ventilation (37

results, 6 relevant), high density living AND green space (39 results, 13 relevant) and high density

living AND transportation (151 results, 19 relevant). I also searched databases to better inform my

research, these included: City of Sydney (Green Square), Green Building Council Australia (Green Star

Rating), Sustainable Cities Collective (Urban Density and Sustainability), IPCC, Smart Growth Online

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and International District Energy Association. I excluded literature which had a primarily theoretical

focus, studies which focused on wildlife (trees, birds, insects, and coral reefs), studies which did not

focus on built environment techniques to mitigate climate change in high density living and studies

which had a primarily medical focus. Therefore, case studies produced in New York, Hong Kong,

Toronto and Melbourne were valuable in this search to illuminate the evidence base on adaptation

and mitigation strategies. Lastly, I did not limit my research to a specific timeframe; some evidence

was outdated therefore, studies were excluded. I only searched literature in English and I did not

limit my focus to any geographical location; however some studies were more relevant than other

based off climate settings.

Sydney’s Coastal Environment

Sydney is susceptible to the urban heat island effect and droughts in hot summer months. In the

winter months, storm surges which have the ability to produce floods based on Sydney’s close

proximity to the ocean are of concern [3, 4]. Green Square, more specifically, is located in a flood

plain therefore flood mitigation techniques are pivotal to the overall construction design plan. In

2005 the NSW government provided a policy as part of the Floodplain Development Manual 2005

with overall aims to reduce loss in times of flooding. Planning is pivotal in environments which are

susceptible to flooding and incorporated into the design plans is a 2.5 km stormwater drain [3, 4].

Further, there are plans to redevelop existing drainage systems which fall in the Green Square flood

plain. The design plans seeks to efficiently recycle water whereby excess stormwater runoff will be

recycled for human consumption. The incorporation of urban green space also decreases flooding

effects; however a more exhaustive solution to dealing with flooding should be considered when

construction takes place in a known flood plain [5].

The Urban Heat Island Effect

Given that Sydney is already susceptible to the urban heat island effect from a geographical

perspective, sustainable planning which reduces high density livings impact on urban heat islands is

pivotal. Research shows that, while high density living does undoubtedly produce more heat than

lower density areas, if design plans incorporate the sustainable design of roofs, roadways, walkways

and vegetation then the heat effect will substantially decrease [6,10]. Simply put, using the albedo

technique (also known as reflective coatings) when designing buildings effectively reduces the urban

heat island effect. Evidence suggests the incorporation of white roofs and green roofs will mitigate

overall greenhouse gas effects while also remaining cost effective; recommendations for specific

roof designs are shown below:

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Low Sloped Roofs: Use single-ply membranes, built-up roofs, bitumen sheet membranes,

spray polyurethane foam roofs;

Steep Sloped Roofs: Use shingles and/or tiles;

Low and Steep Sloped Roofs: Use metal and/or green roofs [11-14].

Hot and humid climates, like Sydney, will need to pay close attention to the overproduction of algae

and mould on green roofs [13]. Next, roadways and walkways are correlated to the urban heat

island effect when darker materials such as asphalt are used. Therefore, white cement fixtures are

suggested to decrease heat output. Further, effective ways to decrease heat is the incorporation of

urban green space into design plans [9, 14].

Urban Green Space

The incorporation of urban green space such as parks, trees, shrubs, grass and flowers have a

significant effect on cooling high density living environments [5]. The addition of urban green space

not only eases climate change impacts but also maximises public health principles through stress and

violence reduction; further, physical activity rates increase thereby decreasing obesity rates [15].

Simply put, the implementation of greenspace is pivotal to maximising sustainable practices because

it regulates microclimates and biophysical processes through the absorption of excess carbon

emissions [16]. Urban green space cools environments through shade production while also

mitigating stormwater runoff issues [4].

Ventilation (External and Internal)

The incorporation of sustainable internal and external ventilation systems can mitigate climate

change impacts in high density settings. Implementation of natural ventilation techniques are

preferred to air conditioning and heating system since they produce high carbon emissions; i.e.

implementation of windows, patios, brick and wood in construction plans can reduce carbon

emissions by keeping premises cooler in summer months [17]. Intrinsically, high density premises

are not exposed to natural lighting as effectively as low density premises. Therefore, the

incorporation of district cooling and heating systems are necessary, especially in tropical and humid

climates such as Sydney [18]. Three notable advanced natural ventilation strategies are:

Cross Ventilation;

Stack Ventilation;

Single-Sided Ventilation [20].

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The incorporation of these systems will maximise public health principles by ensuring that thermal

comfort is met; essentially, in hot summer months it is pivotal to have proper systems which

mitigate overheating in older populations [19]. The management of these systems in terms of proper

duct cleaning is pivotal when ensuring that population health is not thwarted as these systems have

the potential to create pathways for harmful pathogen growths; an example of this it the SARS

outbreak that took place in Hong Kong [17-20].

The proper alignment of buildings can decrease wind stagnation thereby cooling high density

environments and this in turn will maximise public health principles. Incorporation of the Air

Ventilation Assessment Systems in a hot and humid climate like Sydney is encouraged. This includes:

Breezeways/air paths: prevailing winds should travel with breezeways;

Building layout: building morphology with alignment of building heights into rows will move

air around more efficiently;

Building disposition: height arrangement should decrease with the direction of the

prevailing winds and tall buildings should be spaced out properly as to not block natural air

flow (also known as street grid orientation);

Building permeability: gaps/voids in building construction at the pedestrian level will

increase air flow thereby decreasing heat discomfort [21, 22].

The ultimate concern with high density living and external ventilation is air quality. Building

orientation which decreases wind stagnation will improve the thermal comfort for pedestrians and

more effectively cool high density environments [21, 22].

Public Transportation

High density living can decrease overall carbon emissions when cities are properly planned around

public transit systems [23-26]. A main concern when dealing with high density living is traffic

congestion therefore, if cities are planned efficiently around transit systems then vehicle miles

travelled will decrease. Compact design also encourages increased walking and biking for civilians

which further maximises public health principles. The city of Sydney very efficiently employs public

transit systems through the incorporation of the light rail, train and bus systems and Green Square

has been designed with incorporation of all the above principles [4, 32].

Healthy Equity

When conducting Health Impact Assessments it is important to ensure that health equity principles

are incorporated. Ultimately, scientific evidence generally proves that those of lower socio-economic

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status will be more negatively impacted by extreme weather events due to climate change [27-30].

Generally, this is because they reside in socially disadvantaged areas which were not developed with

sustainability principles in mind. Therefore, while the sustainable design systems mentioned above

can decrease adverse climate change effects and increase health, if they only appeal to those of

higher socio-economic status (SES), then design plans should evolve to fit a range of people from

multiple SES backgrounds.

Table 1: Analysis of Health Equity Data from ABS Census of Population Housing 2006-2011

Equity Analysis for Green

Square

Percentages based on Census

of Population and Housing

Age Structure

18-24 18.7%

25-34 37.5%

35-49 22.9%

Travel Methods

Train 12.8%

Bus 22.1%

Car-as Driver 35.5%

Weekly Individual Income

None 13.6%

$1,000-2,000 or more 50.4%

Weekly Household Income

$1500-2,999 40%

The table above is a brief synopsis of relevant census information provided in the Green Square

Urban Renewal Area Profile and its relation to climate change [31]. First, extreme weather events

are more likely to affect older populations more negatively than younger people; the data above

reveals the prominent age structures which will reside in Green Square whereby 37.5% of people will

be aged 25-34. Second, transportation directly correlates with climate change therefore, analysis of

data with regard to peoples main travel methods reveal that the highest percentages of people

travel by train, bus and car. Third, weekly incomes on an individual and joint level is important when

discussing equity; overall, 13.6% people have no income and 50.4% make $1,000 a week or more.

50.4% of people residing in Green Square have joint income levels of $1,500 to $2,999. The 13.6% of

people with no income are likely full-time students. Overall, this data seeks to expose inequities with

specific attention paid to climate change. The majority of inhabitants are younger and therefore

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more apt to deal with extreme weather changes than older people. 70.4% of inhabitants have access

to a car, train or bus; increasing the number of people traveling by train and bus will decrease

climate change impacts. Lastly, the data shows that generally people residing in Green Square are of

higher SES and therefore, construction plans and costs should appeal to those from all ranges of SES;

not just higher SES.

Discussion

The evidence above reveals that high density living, if done with proper adaption and mitigation

construction practices, can have a protective effect on climate change [33, 34]. However, the

scientific literature has some notable limitations: studies do not address what the ideal size for

compact/high density living is and studies need to specifically address certain geographical areas

(coastal, dry, land-locked, tropical, temperate zones) with regard to most efficient sustainable

construction designs. Overall, there is a general lack of systematic reviews on what the “best”

designs are and further research to succinctly bring the science and ideas together is needed.

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IMPLICATIONS FOR INCORPORATION INTO INFRASTRUCTURE AND STRATEGY PLAN The Draft Green Square Infrastructure Strategy and Plan comprehensively outlines strategies which

seek to guide sustainable development in the Green Square Urban Renewal Area [4]. This section

will outline the strategies offered in the design plans and extrapolate on recommendations to

improve sustainability.

1: Does the infrastructure plan use frameworks and regulation techniques to mitigate the effect that high density living has on climate change?

Sustainable development is acknowledged however, incorporation of sustainable construction

designs are voluntarily proposed [pg. 60]. The State Environmental Planning Policy (BASIX SEPP) lies

the foundation for residential developments to achieve minimum sustainable development

standards. The plan seeks to exceed recommendations provided by the BASIX SEPP program by using

the Ecologically Sustainable Development (ESD) framework but, the overall limitation lies in the fact

that there is no statutory regulation which mandates developers to build with sustainability in mind.

Recommendation: Require that developers and contractors not only use the BASIX SEPP and

ESD standards but, incorporate a carbon tax structure associated with excess emissions.

2: Does the infrastructure plan offer sustainable design methods for contractors?

The plan discusses the City’s Decentralised Energy Master Plan, Tri-generation 2010-2030, which

encourages the use of “low carbon electricity, hot water to heat buildings and chilled water to cool

buildings” [pg.61]. There are recommendations for solar photovoltaic panels to increase energy

efficiency and private wires which will reduce network charges thereby increasing efficiency [pg. 61].

There are also plans for Decentralised Water Master Plans, Water Sensitive Urban Design, Reducing

Mains Water Demand and Improving Stormwater Quality [pg. 62-65].

Recommendation: Incorporate further sustainable design methods for contractors to use.

This would include the incorporation of sustainable roof designs, indoor and outdoor

ventilation systems and the incorporation of Air Ventilation Assessment Systems [these

options are discussed on pg. 7 and 8 herein].

3. Does the infrastructure plan offer incentives to contractors for the incorporation of sustainable design plans?

There is no evidence of this in the design plans.

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Recommendation: Waive planning permit fees when sustainable design plans are submitted.

Recommendation: Encourage developers to employ the Green Star Rating tool methodology

and provide subsidies and rebates to developers which use sustainable methodologies.

Recommendation: Provide grants to townships to adapt or mitigate climate change through

the use of sustainable designs.

Recommendation: Offer incentives to people who use public transport systems as opposed

to using automobiles. This recommendation is founded on the claim that traffic congestion

contributes a significant amount to greenhouse gas emissions.

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APPENDIXTable 1: High Density Living and Climate Change

HDL and climate change effect categories

Results/ Strengths Study type and Limitations

References

Coastal Environments Sydney resides in a coastal plain thereby making it more susceptible to sea level rise/excess rainfall as climate change worsens. Incorporation of urban green space such as grass and trees which can absorb excess runoff can ease climate change effects.

Strengths: Advice as to how to used sustainable urban drainage “swales, infiltration, detention, and retention ponds in parks”.

Case study: Greater Manchester (population of 2.5 million) which offered a great range of environmental characteristics; especially in relation to living near bodies of water. Surface runoff model. Regional space strategies, local development frameworks.

Limitations: Runoff in high density living will still be at least 65 percent higher than low density regardless of green space implementation. Green space alone is not as effective if not used in conjunction with the surface runoff model.

Gill et al. (2007)

Urban Heat Island Effect

Urban area has a greater temperature (.25 Celsius) than the countryside (.08 Celsius).

Strengths: Highlights health inequity for those who can/cannot afford air ventilation systems. Adverse effects on elderly populations.

Ecological time series analysis: Hong Kong (urban) observatory 1947 to 2005 and contrasted with Ta Kwu Ling and Lau Fau Shan (country side) 1989-2005.

Limitations: Evidence to support an urban heat island effect with no evidence as to how to do that.

Lam, C.Y. (2010)

Lower density Ecological: Atlanta, Stone et al. (2001)

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dwellings emitted greater heat than high density dwellings. Overall, this research challenges speculations that high density living emits greater heat.

Strengths: Creation of methodology to measure land use and heat production. Efficient use of land in terms of green space can reduce heat island effects.

Georgia metropolitan Limitations: The heat island effect differs based on ecological environments.

Extrapolation on urban morphological designs and overall the positive and negative side effects of high density living.

Strengths: Found that using district ventilation systems, vertical zoning and multifunctional and multi-level clusters can be more efficient. Emphasis on the education of low energy buildings.

Case Study: Hong Kong

Limitations: There is no “right” way to create low energy buildings to decrease urban heat island effect.

Hui et al (2001)

Emphasis on mitigation strategies: rooftops, roadways, parking lots, vegetation as well as examples of mitigation initiatives.

Strengths: Effective and statistically significant ways to reduce urban heat island effect

Meta-analysis: Heat island mitigation processes

Limitations: Cost-benefit analysis as per what is suitable for each environment will differ in terms of what the best ways to adapt or mitigate the heat island effects are for that geographical region.

Sailor et al (2006)

Cost savings structures in direct relation to cool

Ecological: Sacramento, Florida, White Sands National

Rosenfeld et al. (1995)

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surfaces and shade trees program.

Strengths: Policy steps to implement (p263) the above to mitigate heat island effect.

Monument, New Mexico

Limitations: Standards for new construction of buildings are not universal and costs to environment and monetary savings are case dependent.

Urban Green Space Green space and its ability to decrease urban heat islands, flooding, reduce energy consumption.

Strengths: Development of questions and frameworks as to inform policy processes (ecosystem services, drivers of change, green space pressures, social processes, goals of provision).

Delphi Technique: Multidisciplinary approach/discussion to urban green space incorporation.

Limitations: Lack of understanding as to what the best way to plan/design/manage urban greenspace is. Greenspace functionality is geographically and socially complex.

James et al. (2009)

Incorporation of vegetation can decrease climate change effects caused by high density living.

Strengths: Surface area of tree cover, building height impacts the overall success of urban green space.

Parametric Case Study using ENVI-met: 33 simulations based in Hong Kong

Limitations: Not effective in cooling pedestrian environments, building-height-to-street-width ratios and vertical greening techniques need to be studied.

Ng et al. (2012)

External Ventilation Building design and its importance on external ventilation in high density living.

Strengths: Recommendations of street grid orientation (arranged along the

Computational Parametric Study Mong Ok in Hong Kong: Thermal Comfort assessments through Physiological Equivalent Temperature

Yuan et al. (2012)

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prevailing winds), wind permeability (building distances), air passages close to ground.

Limitations: Only considers the wind environment in an urban settings, also scope is limited with regard to building disposition and various heights.

Specified and succinct culmination of efficient ventilation systems: Breezeways, Podium coverage, building disposition, building heights, building permeability to increase ventilation.

Strengths: Development of the Air Ventilation Assessment and policy recommendations

Meta-Analysis: Air Ventilation Assessment in Hong Kong

Limitations: Geography specific

Ng et at (2006)

Internal Ventilation Focus on hospital ward natural ventilation systems while also extrapolating on evidence to support natural ventilations effect on decreasing carbon emissions.

Strengths: Development of stack ventilation system: Edge in Centre out, Edge in Edge out, Centre in Edge out and Centre in Centre out (Fig 1).

Case Study: UK locations single sided ventilation and edge in and out natural ventilation

Limitations: Night time ventilation control

Lomas et al. (2009)

Transportation Automobile usage is the largest contributing factor to GHG emissions; lower in high density dwellings due to decreased need for automobile use.

Case Study: Toronto comparison between high density and low density dwellings. Life-Cycle Assessment used.

Limitations: Traffic congestion and more

Norman et al. (2006)

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Strengths: Evidence to show that policies which reduce automotive transportation, increase public transit.

research dedicated to life cycle analysis to examine the overall policy implications with regard to high density v low density living.

Transportation accounts for 28% of GHG emissions in U.S.

Strength: Vehicle miles travelled; therefore shorter travel will reduce GHG emissions.

Review of practices to minimise climate change impacts (LEED U.S. Green Building Councils Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design rating systems).

Limitations: Cost-benefit analysis of GHG emissions and the built environment.

Younger et al. (2008)

Importance of planning cities effectively to increase public transit use; i.e. higher density cities are typically more efficient.

Strengths: Downward trend with 32 cities showing that as densities increase transport energy decreases.

Case Studies: Analysis of UK built environment; urban form implications.

Limitations: Overall techniques in design plans and effective coordination between all stakeholders to inform policy effectively.

Steemers et al. (2003)

Decreased GHG emissions with compact development.

Strengths: Policy recommendations for reduction in transport sector; compact development is directly correlated to lower GHG footprint.

Systematic Review: Urban Development, travel and emissions from automobiles in US.

Limitations: Travel emission reduction is not enough to reduce GHG alone.

Ewing et al. (2007)

Research supports Case Study: Eight Holden et al. (2005)

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that proper urban planning does matter; i.e. that as density increase, energy use decreases.

residential areas in Greater Oslo Region; urban form and household consumption.

Limitations: Energy use decreases in high density situations to a certain point but then actually increases. More research for threshold is needed. Total Studies: 16

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