living and working in downtown louisville, 2013 · downtown medical services establishments, 2010...
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Living and Working in Downtown Louisville, 2013
Janet Kelly, Ph.D. Executive Director, Urban Studies Institute
Michael Price, State Demographer Associate Director, Kentucky State Data Center
with
Barry Kornstein, Sarah Ehresman, and Tom Sawyer
University of Louisville
5325 2719
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
Greensboro
Birmingham
Nashville
Columbus
Raleigh
Omaha
Dayton
Jacksonville
Louisville
Kansas City
Richmond
Memphis
Indianapolis
Cincinnati
Charlotte
In Households In Group Quarters2010 Downtown Population
Total Population 2010 Census Summary File 1
7th in total population and household population
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
Greensboro
Birmingham
Jacksonville
Nashville
Raleigh
Omaha
Louisville
Dayton
Columbus
Richmond
Kansas City
Memphis
Charlotte
Indianapolis
Cincinnati
Occupied Vacant2010 Downtown Housing
Number of housing units 2010 Census Summary File 1
4,185 total housing units
12.7%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
Cincinnati
Raleigh
Charlotte
Richmond
Indianapolis
Birmingham
Nashville
Dayton
Memphis
Omaha
Jacksonville
Kansas City
Louisville
Columbus
Greensboro
2010 Downtown Residential Vacancy Rates
Percent of total housing units not occupied 2010 Census Summary File 1
-20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0
Louisville
Cincinnati
Omaha
Dayton
Raleigh
Birmingham
Memphis
Indianapolis
Columbus
Kansas City
Jacksonville
Richmond
Greensboro
Nashville
Charlotte
Downtown Household Population Growth 2000-2010
Percent Change
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0
Cincinnati
Omaha
Louisville
Dayton
Raleigh
Indianapolis
Birmingham
Memphis
Kansas City
Columbus
Richmond
Greensboro
Nashville
Jacksonville
Charlotte
Downtown Change in Number of Households 2000-2010
Percent Change
Dosker Manor
Avenue Plaza
J. O. Blanton House
2000 2010 Population Housing Units Population Housing Units
City jail & other group quarters 1,336 *** 2,711 ***
Dosker Manor 748 693 866 793
Avenue Plaza 258 225 222 225
J.O. Blanton House & 550 Apts. 474 348 587 365
Clarksdale 1,837 743 *** ***
Total Non-Market 4,653 2,009 4,386 1,388 Percent of downtown 69.1 53.8 54.5 33.1
Downtown Louisville Non-Market Sector
Data source: 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census, Summary File 1, block-level data.
Downtown Housing 2000
Clarksdale
Dosker Manor
Avenue Plaza
Blanton House
Downtown Housing 2010
Waterfront Park Place
Fleur di Lis
Liberty Green
Downtown Residents 2000 In Group Quarters In Households
Clarksdale
Dosker Manor
Avenue Plaza
Blanton House
Jail
Downtown Residents 2010 In Group Quarters In Households
Dosker Manor
Avenue Plaza
Blanton House
Jail
Waterfront Park Place
Fleur di Lis
Liberty Green
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Population inhouseholds
Housing units Households
Non-Market Market
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Population inhouseholds
Housing units Households
Downtown Transformation
Downtown Louisville Market Sector Growth 2000-2010
1,505 persons
1,061 housing units
947 households
63.8%
141.8%
69.0%
60.9%
70.2%
Renter Occupied
Owner-Occupied
Occupied Housing Units
Total Housing Units
Population in Households
Downtown Louisville Market Sector Growth Rates 2000-2010
Percent Change
Source: 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census, Summary File 1, block-level data.
Peer Ranking
5th
5th
4th
2nd
4th
9.4%
46.1%
11.6%
7.8%
9.2%
Renter Occupied
Owner-Occupied
Occupied Housing Units
Total Housing Units
Population in Households
Downtown Louisville Growth Rates 2010-2011
Percent Change
Peer Ranking
5th
4th
3rd
1st
3rd
Source: 2010 and 2011 5-Year American Community Survey, block group level
Non-Market Housing Units
1,380 Market Housing Units
2,803
96.3% Occupied
82.9% Occupied
17.1% Vacant
Downtown Louisville Housing Units by Occupancy 2010
3.7% Vacant
Non-Market Households
1,337 Market Households
2,317
100.0% Renters
90.5% Renters
9.5% Owners
Downtown Louisville Households by Tenure 2010
Females 50.8%
Males 49.2%
Non-Market Population
4,386 Market Population
3,658
Males 70.6%
Females 29.4%
Downtown Louisville Population by Sex 2010
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Under 18 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 andabove
Non-Market Market Louisville Metro
Perc
ent
Downtown Louisville
Population by Age 2010
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
White Black Asian Other Hispanic
Non-Market Market Louisville Metro
Perc
ent
Downtown Louisville
Population by Race/Hispanic 2010
45.8%
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
Dayton
Kansas City
Birmingham
Memphis
Jacksonville
Raleigh
Greensboro
Indianapolis
Omaha
Nashville
Columbus
Richmond
Charlotte
Louisville
Cincinnati
Green Commuters Use public transit, walk, or bike to work, or work at home
Percent of employed persons living downtown
Source: 2011 5-Year American Community Survey, block group level
Typical Downtown Market Residents
Female or male
Young 25-34 years
Racial mix
Renter
Green commuter
54.2% 31.2%
6.1% 8.4%
Work to Home Distance of Downtown Workers, 2010
Less than 10 miles
10 to 24 miles
25 to 50 miles
Greater than 50 miles
63% of downtown workers live in the Metro. 7% commute from Indiana. The rest come from elsewhere in Kentucky.
Only 3% of downtown workers live downtown. The 97% “inflow” rate has been constant since 2002.
63,755 63,833
65,796
64,309
67,799 67,884
70,496 70,648
67,374
60,000
62,000
64,000
66,000
68,000
70,000
72,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Private and Public Sector Employment Downtown Louisville 2002-2010
-1,336
-1,411
-1,600 -1,400 -1,200 -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400
Administration & Support, Waste…
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Retail Trade
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Wholesale Trade
Management of Companies and…
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Other Services (excluding Public…
Manufacturing
Accommodation and Food Services
Construction
Professional, Scientific, and Technical…
Information
Health Care and Social Assistance
Finance and Insurance
Educational Services
Private Sector Job Gain (Loss) 2009-2010
Source: US Census Bureau, LEHD, using On the Map tool. Does not measure self-employed persons. People with more than one job in the geography are counted twice.
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Private Sector Growth Trends in Downtown Louisville 2002-2010 Goods
productionand relatedactivities
Wholesaleand retailtrade
Officesectors
Education,health careand socialassistance
Hospitalityand otherservices
Health care sector up 4% from pre-recession 2007
Office sector down 2% from pre-recession 2007
Source: US Census Bureau, LEHD, using On the Map tool. Does not measure self-employed persons. People with more than one job in the geography are counted twice.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Office Sector Employment Trends, Downtown and Louisville Metro, 2002-2010
Office sectorMetro
Office sectordowntown
The office sector includes information, finance and insurance, real estate, professional and technical services, management, and administration and support services. It does not include public sector office jobs.
The downtown office sector was relatively recession-proof; changes in employment more noticeable in Metro Louisville.
Source: US Census Bureau, LEHD, using On the Map tool. Does not measure self-employed persons. People with more than one job in the geography are counted twice.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Private Health Care and Social Assistance Sector Employment Trends, Downtown and Louisville Metro,
2002-2010
Metro
Downtown
Consists of ambulatory health care services, hospitals, nursing and residential care facilities, individual and family services, relief services, vocational rehabilitative and child day care. It does not include public sector health and social service jobs.
Health and social services jobs are growing faster outside the central business district.
Source: US Census Bureau, LEHD, using On the Map tool. Does not measure self-employed persons. People with more than one job in the geography are counted twice.
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Job Growth Downtown and Louisville Metro, 2002-2010
Metro jobs
Downtown jobs
Downtown jobs fell by about 1% from 2007-2010 while Metro jobs fell about 3% over the same period.
Source: US Census Bureau, LEHD, using On the Map tool. Does not measure self-employed persons. People with more than one job in the geography are counted twice.
Downtown Job Growth For Peer Cities
2002-2010 2008-2010
Greensboro 7% Louisville 6% Indianapolis 0% Columbus -1% Charlotte -3% Omaha -4% Cincinnati -8% Kansas City -9% Richmond -14% Nashville -15% Memphis -19% Birmingham -20% Jacksonville -23% Dayton -45%
Greensboro 28% Indianapolis 3% Nashville 1% Jacksonville 1% Columbus 0% Birmingham -1% Kansas City -3% Louisville -4% Cincinnati -6% Memphis -8% Omaha -10% Charlotte -13% Richmond -17% Dayton -29%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Jobs by Earnings, Downtown Louisville, 2002-2010
$1,250 per month or less
$1,251 to $3,333 permonth
More than $3,333 permonth
Note the growth in higher wage jobs over the period. Mid-range wage jobs declined.
Source: US Census Bureau, LEHD, using On the Map tool. Does not measure self-employed persons. People with more than one job in the geography are counted twice.
40%
41%
43%
45%
46%
49%
51%
54%
55%
55%
56%
57%
57%
58%
64%
Birmingham
Charlotte
Cincinnati
Columbus
Dayton
Greensboro
Indianapolis
Jacksonville
Kansas City
Louisville
Memphis
Nashville
Omaha
Raleigh
Richmond
Percent of Downtown Workers Who Earn More than $3,333 per Month, 2010
2000 2010 1 to 4 employees 807 733 5 to 9 employees 339 260 10 to 19 employees 259 218 20 to 49 employees 190 203 50 to 99 employees 85 84 100 to 249 employees 18 55 250 to 499 employees 6 18 500 to 999 employees 7 6 1,000 employees or more 7 7
Number of Private Sector Establishments by Employee Range, 2000 and 2010
Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, for Zip Code 40202
76 116
38
165
50
440
135
232
177 136
19
050
100150200250300350400450500
Downtown Establishments by Type, 2010
Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns for zip code 40202
280
30 18 20 11 25 18 10 19 6 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Downtown Professional Services Establishments, 2010
Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns for zip code 40202
150
41
14 8 6 5 5 3 0
20406080
100120140160
Downtown Medical Services Establishments, 2010
Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns for zip code 40202
Employment in the office and medical related occupations that are the backbone of the downtown economy is projected to grow by 18.2% countywide from 2010 to 2020 (compared to 16.5% overall employment growth). The median annual pay in those occupations is $50,558, which is 30% more than overall median annual pay in the county.
Projected
Growth
Median
Annual Pay
Management Occupations 10.9% $83,673
Examples
General and Operations Managers 5.3% $85,430
Computer and Information Systems Managers 22.6% $98,890
Financial Managers 8.3% $81,020
Medical and Health Services Managers 21.4% $81,810
Business and Financial Operations Occupations 21.2% $54,995
Examples
Human Resources, Training, and Labor Relations Specialists, All Other 24.7% $45,470
Management Analysts 24.7% $66,960
Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists 42.8% $45,240
Accountants and Auditors 17.6% $55,650
Computer Occupations 24.9% $69,251
Examples
Computer Systems Analysts 26.3% $78,700
Software Developers, Applications 30.6% $75,510
Software Developers, Systems Software 35.5% $82,790
Computer Support Specialists 19.8% $44,540
All Medical Related Occupations 24.4% $53,132
Examples
Physicians and Surgeons 21.4% $159,453
Registered Nurses 26.0% $60,580
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 19.0% $24,800
Medical Secretaries 37.2% $28,690
Insurance & Sales Reps and Office & Administrative Support Occupations 14.5% $34,856
Examples
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 14.1% $32,720
Receptionists and Information Clerks 22.5% $24,570
Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants 13.5% $36,990
Office Clerks, General 18.0% $26,860
Source: Kentuckiana Occupational Outlook, 2010-2020 and author's calculations.
Projected Growth in Jefferson County of Employment in Office and Medical
Related Occupations, 2010-20
14
.1%
10
.1%
8.9
%
8.4
%
8.4
%
8.8
%
13
.5%
15
.5%
27
.6%
27
.4%
18
.6%
14
.7%
15
.9%
14
.1%
14
.1%
16
.4%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Downtown Vacancy Rates, 2005-2012
Class A Class B
Source: CBRE Louisville
20.1% 19.6%
15.9%
12.9% 11.8%
12.7% 12.0%
13.8%
16.6%
18.7%
16.4%
18.2% 18.8%
17.8% 16.8%
15.0%
4Q 2005 4Q 2006 4Q 2007 4Q 2008 4Q 2009 4Q 2010 4Q 2011 4Q 2012
Louisville Office Market Vacancy Rates, 2005-2012 Central Business District and Suburban Locations
CBD Overall Vacancy Rate Suburban Overall Vacancy Rate
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Inc.
23.8%
21.0%
16.9%
15.3%
14.6%
13.8%
12.7%
7.3%
7.0%
Cincinnati
Indianapolis
Nashville
Columbus
Richmond
Louisville
Birmingham
Charlotte
Raleigh
Downtown Office Vacancy Rates, 4Q 2012 Louisville and Peer Downtowns
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Inc.
$25.36
$25.02
$22.36
$21.99
$21.18
$20.61
$20.40
$20.25
Charlotte
Richmond
Raleigh
Cincinnati
Nashville
Birmingham
Louisville
Indianapolis
Weighted Average Class A Gross Rental Rates Louisville & Peer Downtowns, 4Q 2012
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Inc.
Fiscal Impact: Tax Revenue to Metro and State in Millions of Dollars
2010 2011 2012
Metro Occupational Taxes $56 $59 $66
KY Personal Income Taxes** $131 $142 $146
State Sales/Use Taxes** $14 $15 $16
*Estimated based on 40202’s share of Kentucky payroll times annual income tax collections data. **Estimated based on percentage of retail sales for 40202 zip to Kentucky retail sales, imputed to sales and use data.