living with climate change are there limits to adaptation?
DESCRIPTION
Living with Climate Change Are there Limits to Adaptation?. Themes. Theme 1: Adapting to thresholds in physical and ecological systems Theme 2: The role of values and culture in adaptation Theme 3: Governance, knowledge and technologies for adaptation. Adaptation is necessary …. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Living with Climate Change
Are there Limits to Adaptation?
ThemesTheme 1: Adapting to thresholds in
physical and ecological systems
Theme 2: The role of values and culture in adaptation
Theme 3: Governance, knowledge and technologies for adaptation
Adaptation is necessary ….
450ppmv cumulative emission scenarios peaking in 2020
Year
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Em
issi
ons
of g
reen
hous
e ga
ses
(GtC
O2e)
0
20
40
60
80
Low ALow BMedium AMedium BHigh AHigh B
Bows and Anderson (2008) Phil Trans Roy Soc in press.
Global emissions growing at 2.7% p.a., 2000-08. They will have to drop like a stone after 2020 to meet any reasonable stabilisation level
Thinking behind the Themes
Adaptation may be limited by:• divergent goals of adaptation (diverse and
incommensurable values)• uncertainty in foresight• intrinsic current value of places and identities
Adaptation is constrained by:• social characteristics and individual behaviour
Adger, Dessai et al. (2008) – background paper
Theme 1 Adapting to thresholds in physical
and ecological systems
• Can limits be defined in physical parameters when adaptation involves biological and human adaptation?
• Irreversibility …..• …… of social, cultural and
ecological attributes?
Information is not the constraint
Year
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Sum
mer
tem
pera
ture
cha
nge
(ºC
)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Year
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Sum
mer
pre
cipi
tatio
n ch
ange
(%
)
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Dessai and Hulme (2008) GRL submitted
UK climate scenarios from 1990-2002 compare favourably to recent CET observations
Theme 2
Role of values and culture in adaptation
• Unique nature of places, societies, cultures• Identities bound to localities• Subjective, cultural and symbolic values• Continuous change and adaptation?
Theme 3
Governance, knowledge and technologies for adaptation
Scale
Agency
Diverse goals
Modes of governance
A priori thoughts
• Adaptation is happening now, but constrained by behaviour, inertia and contested values and aims
• Adaptation is absolutely necessary and resonates with sustainable development
• Adaptation will be painful for many
Living with Climate Change
Are there Limits to Adaptation?