understanding ecosystem thresholds in global change living with climate change: are there limits to...
TRANSCRIPT
Understanding Ecosystem Thresholds in Global
Change Living with climate
change: are there limits to adaptation?
Tyndall Centre and GECHS 2008
Dennis OjimaRobert Corell
THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FORSCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT
•Global Climate Change and Impacts
•Impacts to Ecosystems•Adaptation Strategies
OUTLINE
THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR
SCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT
Warming Warming greatest at greatest at
high latitudeshigh latitudes
• 5 warmest years: 1998, 5 warmest years: 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004, 20052002, 2003, 2004, 2005
• Amplification of warming Amplification of warming due to decrease of albedo due to decrease of albedo (melting of snow and ice)(melting of snow and ice)
IPCC 2007IPCC 2007
Signals from nature
THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FORSCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE
ENVIRONMENT
Lara Hansen / WWF
Jeremy Little / University of Washington
Source: Camille Parmesan
Spring comes about 2 weeks earlier
• Across the USA, tree swallows are nesting 9 days earlier than 40 years ago
• Laying date is highly correlated with May temperature
PINE BARK BEETLE OUTBREAKPINE BARK BEETLE OUTBREAK
(1) Predator – aggressive Bark Beetle
(2) Co-evolution – host defenses Small weak predator / large dangerous prey Mass Attack strategy
(3) Required synchrony of emergence at appropriate time of year
(4) No diapause – direct Temperature Control of Seasonality
MPB BASIC ECOLOGY
Interesting question: Focus of seasonal temperature triggers for overwintering populations and synchronous emergence without diapause J. LoganJ. Logan
Now
385 ppm
Now
385 ppm
650 ppm3.5 oC
650 ppm3.5 oC
450 ppm2 oC
450 ppm2 oC
550 ppm3 oC
550 ppm3 oC
Ocean Acidification
Pine Bark Beetles
Sea Level Rise
Biosphere Vulnerabilities
Coral Bleeching
A Concept for a Adaptation/Impacts Multi-SpaceA framing within which coping strategies are addressed
Time Scale: This Century
ADAPTATION DESIGNADAPTATION DESIGN• Adaptive Management practices are local and
need to take into account the complex, non-linear behaviour of socio-ecological systems
• Use of appropriate scenarios and downscaling techniques of climate change effects
• Full risk/uncertainty assessments• Projects need to be linked to capacity building
& technology transfer• Co-development of an integrative
management plan should treat the system as a socio-ecological system
Downscale Key Parameters at needed Scale
Downscale Key Parameters at needed Scale
Develop the 4 Quad Scenarios with Drivers
Tease out Key Projections with Multi-Stresses
Tease out Key Projections with Multi-Stresses
Set the Time Scales visa Climate Conditions
Craft and Implement Long-Range Plan
Frame the
Downscale
4 Quad Scenarios
Set Time Scale
Controlling Projections
Frame the Context and Scale (cities, water, etc.)
Frame the Context and Scale (cities, water, etc.)
25-40 yr. Implementation Plan
Key Tracking Indicators and Evaluate ProgressKey Tracking Indicators and Evaluate Progress
Track
Progress
A Coping/Adaptation Cascade
A Process to Craft a Long-Term (i.e., 25-40 years) Continuously Up-datable Adaptation Plan Focused on Climate Change with Exacerbating Stresses
Problem
Governance and Policy Actions
So
cio
-Env
iron
me
nta
l
P
roce
sse
s
GWGConc.GWGConc.
Processes Respond Rapidly
These Processes Respond very Slowly
Ag
gre
ssiv
e P
oli
cy A
ctio
n
Wea
k to
Lit
tle
Po
licy
Act
ion
“Lots” of Luck Scenario1.Scenario Details2.3...n
Easy Street Scenario 1. Scenario Details2.3...n
“Get with it” Scenario1. Scenario Details
2.3...n
“Well just Delay” Scenario1. Scenario Details2.3...n
4 Quad Scenario Framework
Infrastructure
Household Decision-making
Political Economy, Institutions
Change Scenarios
Climate and other Environmental Influences
Land Use
Economy
Land Tenure
Ecosystem services
Cooperation/Enabling Mechanisms
Demography
Mitigation
Adaptation Strategies (long-term)
Coping Tactics (short-term)
T1 Household goals, Initial conditions
Resilience / V
ulnerability
Galvin et al
DECISION MAKING FRAMEWORK
• Application of Adaptation Cascade in partnership with local communities, states, and other resource management entities
• Development of Adaptive management strategies to deal Ecological Thresholds
• Developing technological, scientific, socio-economic tools for addressing adaptation needs
SUMMARY
THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR
SCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT
A Survey of Climate Change Adaptation
Planning
http://www.heinzctr.org/NEW_WEB/PDF/Adaptation_Report_October_10_2007.pdf
THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR
SCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT