llad phillips1 jobs and crime. llad phillips2 how best to learn in a lecture class that does not...

Llad Phillips 1

Jobs and CrimeJobs and Crime

Llad Phillips 2

How best to Learn in a Lecture classThat does notHave a Section?

We RecommendGoing to class.The questionsOn the examsAre from topicsDiscussed inClass.

How much math does 160 require?

1.Descriptive Graphs2. AnalyticalGraphs (exams)3. Notation e.gOF=f(CR,SE,SV)

Llad Phillips 3

OutlineOutline Seriousness SurveySeriousness Survey

What can we learn from the survey?What can we learn from the survey? Crime FileCrime File

VictimsVictims Jobs and CrimeJobs and Crime

Jobs and CrimeJobs and Crime Why do some people get involved with crime?Why do some people get involved with crime?

Llad Phillips 4

Class Survey 2006Class Survey 2006

Scoring Ten BehaviorsScoring Ten Behaviors 61 responses61 responses

Llad Phillips 5

SERIOUSNESS SURVEY

RATE THE SERIOUSNESS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING BEHAVIORS ON A SCALE FROM ZERO( LEAST SERIOUS) TO TEN( MOST SERIOUS):

MEDIAN ‘06 ‘051. HOMICIDE _10 10__2. MASS POISONING ( e.g. TYLENOL) _ 10 8__ 3. FORCIBLE RAPE _ 9 9__4. ARSON: SET FIRE TO A GARAGE _ 7 7__5. SELLING HEROIN _ 7 6__6. AUTO THEFT _ 6 6__7. EMBEZZLEMENT OF $1,000 _ 5 4__8. PROSTITUTE IN A HOUSE OF PROSTITUTION _ 3 3__9. POSSESSION OF MARIJUANA _ 1 2__10. SNIFFING GLUE _ 2 1__

Llad Phillips 6

Homicide, W 06, 61 Respondents

0 0 0 0 1 0 0 07

53

0102030405060

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Seriousness

Fre

qu

ency

Mode = 10, largest number of responsesMedian = 10, score of 31st person

Llad Phillips 7

Homicide, W 05, 98 Respondents

1 2 0 1 0 0 1 3

16

74

0

20

40

60

80

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Seriousness

Fre

qu

ency

Mode = 10, largest number of responsesMedian = 10, score of 49th person

Llad Phillips 8

Number of Responses Versus Score for Homicide 2004

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Score

Res

po

nse

s

1 1 3

14

73

Llad Phillips 9

Rape, W 06, 61 Respondents

0 0 0 0 0 02

14 15

30

0

5

10

1520

25

30

35

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Seriousness

Fre

qu

en

cy

Mode = 10Median = 9

Llad Phillips 10

Rape, W 05, 98 Respondents

0 0 1 0 1 4 7

19

39

27

0

10

20

30

40

50

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Seriousness

Fre

qu

en

cy

Mode = 9Median = 9

Llad Phillips 11

Possession of Marijuana, W 06, 61 Respondents

33

96

25

2 2 1 0 10

10

20

30

40

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Seriousness

Fre

qu

en

cy

Mode = 1Median = 1

Llad Phillips 12

Possession of Marijuana, W 05

47

17

117 6 4 3

1 1 105

101520253035404550

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Seriousness

Fre

qu

en

cy

Mode = 1Median = 2

Llad Phillips 13

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

23

31

27

10

7

4 4 5

2

0 00

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Fre

qu

enc

y

Score

Number of Responses Vs. Possession of Pot Score ‘02

Llad Phillips 14

SERIOUSNESS SURVEY


Minimum, Maximum1. HOMICIDE _5, 102. MASS POISONING ( e.g. TYLENOL) _0, 1010 3. FORCIBLE RAPE _7, 104. ARSON: SET FIRE TO A GARAGE _3, 105. SELLING HEROIN _0, 106. AUTO THEFT _2, 107. EMBEZZLEMENT OF $1,000 _1, 108. PROSTITUTE IN A HOUSE OF PROSTITUTION _0, 109. POSSESSION OF MARIJUANA _0, 1010. SNIFFING GLUE _0, 8

Llad Phillips 15

Center of the Scores DistributionCenter of the Scores Distribution

Mode: most likelyMode: most likely Median: middle personMedian: middle person Average: sum of scores divided by total Average: sum of scores divided by total

number of peoplenumber of people

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Dispersion of Scores DistributionDispersion of Scores Distribution

Measures of dispersionMeasures of dispersion Standard deviationStandard deviation Inter-quartile rangeInter-quartile range Range: Maximum - MinimumRange: Maximum - Minimum

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Dispersion Versus Seriousness, W 06

Possession of Pot

Sniffi ng Glue

Prostitution

Embezzlement

Auto Theft

Heroin

Arson

Rape

Poisoning

Homicide

0.000

0.500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Median

P

Policy is easier

Policy is more difficult

Llad Phillips 18

Disagreement Versus Seriousness, 02

Arson

Selling Heroin

Auto Theft

Embezzle

Mass Poisoning

Rape

Homicide

Prostitute

Possess Pot

Sniff Glue

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Score

Dis

per

sio

n (

Sta

nd

ard

Dev

iati

on

)

Homicide2004

Seriousness Scores, Spring 2001 .

Auto Theft

Arson

Selling Heroin

PoisoningMarijuana

Prostitute

Sniffing Glue

Rape

Homicide

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Average

Embezzlement

Sta

ndar

d D

evia

tion

or

Dis

pers

ion

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Average scores 2001 and 2002

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Score 2001

Sco

re 2

002

Llad Phillips 21

Bureau of Justice Statistics,Report to the Nation

The Alternativep.173

One more step: converting seriousness scores to a metric (years of sentence or Loss rate of $)

The Economics of Crime Control, Ch. 4

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Types of CrimeTypes of Crime

Motivation: self-interest, greedMotivation: self-interest, greed Street Crimes: robbery, burglary, auto theft, Street Crimes: robbery, burglary, auto theft,

larcenylarceny White Collar: embezzlement, tax evasion, White Collar: embezzlement, tax evasion,

check fraud, telephone fraudcheck fraud, telephone fraud Status Offenses: runaway, truant, vagrant, Status Offenses: runaway, truant, vagrant,

beyond control of parentsbeyond control of parents Black Market: gambling, prostitution,drugsBlack Market: gambling, prostitution,drugs

Llad Phillips 23

Types of CrimeTypes of Crime Motivation: Hate, RageMotivation: Hate, Rage

Street Crimes: homicide, aggravated assault, Street Crimes: homicide, aggravated assault, raperape

Crimes Against Public Order: vandalism, Crimes Against Public Order: vandalism, terrorismterrorism

Hate CrimesHate Crimes Columbine HighColumbine High James Byrd: dragging death in TexasJames Byrd: dragging death in Texas Jewish Community Center in Granada HillsJewish Community Center in Granada Hills

Llad Phillips 24

Jobs and CrimeJobs and Crime

Llad Phillips 25

Questions About CrimeQuestions About Crime

Does the Business Cycle Affect Crime Does the Business Cycle Affect Crime Rates?Rates?

Does an Individual’s Life Cycle Affect Does an Individual’s Life Cycle Affect Crime Rates?Crime Rates?

Why do some people live socially Why do some people live socially unproductive lives?unproductive lives?

Llad Phillips 26

Two Points About Economic Conditions and CrimeTwo Points About Economic Conditions and Crime Relationship of Crime to the Business CycleRelationship of Crime to the Business Cycle

Short RunShort Run: Business Cycle: Business Cycle Is Phil Cook wrong?Is Phil Cook wrong? California: the misery index and crimeCalifornia: the misery index and crime

misery index = unemployment rate + inflation ratemisery index = unemployment rate + inflation rate

Relationship of Crime to the Life CycleRelationship of Crime to the Life Cycle Long RunLong Run Investment in EducationInvestment in Education Role of the FamilyRole of the Family

Llad Phillips 27

California Unemployment Rate and Inflation Rate, 1952-2004

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Pe

r C

en

t

unemployment rate

inflation rate

misery rate

Llad Phillips 28

CA Crime Index Per 1000 and Misery Index (Percent), 1952-2004

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Ra

te

Misery index

CA Crime Index

Llad Phillips 29

CA Crime Index(t) = a +b*Misery Index(t)CA Crime Index(t) = a +b*Misery Index(t)

-0.015

-0.010

-0.005

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00

Residual Actual Fitted

CA Crime Index Per Capita Versus Misery Index

Llad Phillips 30

CA Crime Index Per 1000 Vs. Misery Index

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00

Misery Index

Cri

me

Ind

ex

2002

1952

1980

1954

California: Crime Index Versus Misery Index .

y = -0.1702x 2 + 6.0493x - 16.491

R2 = 0.7761

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00

Misery Index

Cri

me I

nd

ex

Observed Data

Quadratic Fit

US Unemployment Rates, Males, Seasonally Adjusted .

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14Ja

n-8

9

Jul-

89

Jan

-90

Jul-

90

Jan

-91

Jul-

91

Jan

-92

Jul-

92

Jan

-93

Jul-

93

Jan

-94

Jul-

94

Jan

-95

Jul-

95

Jan

-96

Jul-

96

Jan

-97

Jul-

97

Jan

-98

Jul-

98

Jan

-99

Jul-

99

Date

Rate

White, 20 plus

Black, 20 plus

Unemployment Rates, Seasonally Adjusted, Males 16-19 .

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Feb

-89

Au

g-8

9

Feb

-90

Au

g-9

0

Feb

-91

Au

g-9

1

Feb

-92

Au

g-9

2

Feb

-93

Au

g-9

3

Feb

-94

Au

g-9

4

Feb

-95

Au

g-9

5

Feb

-96

Au

g-9

6

Feb

-97

Au

g-9

7

Feb

-98

Au

g-9

8

Feb

-99

Au

g-9

9

Date

Rate

White Male 16-19

Black Male 16-19

Llad Phillips 34

An Individual’s Life Cycle for a Socially Productive LifeAn Individual’s Life Cycle for a Socially Productive Life Learning over the life cycleLearning over the life cycle Accumulating earning power or human Accumulating earning power or human

capitalcapital Earnings depend uponEarnings depend upon

abilityability knowledgeknowledge work experiencework experience

Llad Phillips 35

Productive Life Cycle

Social Institution

Family - PreSchool - School - College - Job - Retirement

Function

Learning: Accumulating Human Capital - Earning - Spending

Age Line

0 4 6 18 23 65

Llad Phillips 36

Accumulating Human Capital

Inflow OutflowStock

Llad Phillips 37


StockInflow +

-

OutflowNet Inflow

Llad Phillips 38


HumanCapital

Learning +

-

DepreciationInvestment

Llad Phillips 39

Allocation of Your Time

Human Capital

Build Capitalby Learning

Use Capitalfor Earning

Llad Phillips 40

Time Endowment

24 hours

Llad Phillips 41

24 hours0 hoursLeisure(learning)

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Allocation of Your Time

Human Capital

Build Capitalby Learning

Use Capitalfor Earning

Llad Phillips 43


Earnings

$480 Opportunities for trading leisurefor earnings (income) at a rate,$20 per hour, determined by yourstock of human capital

$ 0

Llad Phillips 44

Salaries by Education Level, CAFull Time* WorkersSalaries by Education Level, CAFull Time* WorkersEducation Salary WageNo HS Dipl. $26,115 $13.06 HS Dipl. $27,326 $13.69Bachelor’s $44,426 $26.39Master’s $52,787 $26.97Doctorate $59,348 $29.67Professional $77,877 $38.94

*Full Time: >35 hrs/wk, >48 wks/yr.; Source: LA Times, 1-10-93


Earnings

$480

$ 0

$240

dropout

college grad

Llad Phillips 46

Economists Assume You Can make ComparisonsEconomists Assume You Can make Comparisons For example: you can compare a high level For example: you can compare a high level

of your income and a low level of your of your income and a low level of your leisure leisure withwith a low level of your income and a low level of your income and a high level of your leisurea high level of your leisure


Earnings

$480

$ 0

Iso-Preference Curves:You value all points on a curve equally

high

low value

high value


Earnings

$480

$ 0

high

low value

high value

Optimum

15 hoursof leisure

$180for 9 hrsof work


Earnings

$480

$ 0

high

low value

slope of the iso-preference curve through the 24 hour endowment is the lowest wage at which you are willing to work


Earnings

$480

$ 0

high

low value


$96

dropout is unwilling to work for $4/hr

Llad Phillips 51

Participation in the Labor Force:Willing to look for workParticipation in the Labor Force:Willing to look for work If your market wage exceeds your If your market wage exceeds your

reservation wagereservation wage college grad, @$20/hr, participatescollege grad, @$20/hr, participates the junior high dropout, @ $4/hr, does notthe junior high dropout, @ $4/hr, does not

We assumed the college grad and the We assumed the college grad and the dropout both have the same values for dropout both have the same values for income and leisureincome and leisure

Only their learning histories differ Only their learning histories differ


Earnings

$480

$ 0

high

low value


$96

dropout is unwilling to work for $4/hr

Llad Phillips 53

Hazards to Personal SuccessHazards to Personal Success

Dropping outDropping out Joining gangsJoining gangs Anti-social behavior Anti-social behavior

Llad Phillips 55

Productive Life Cycle

Social Institution

Family - PreSchool - School - College - Job - Retirement

Function

Learning: Accumulating Human Capital - Earning - Spending

Age Line

0 4 6 18 23 65

Legal Work or Illegal Work? Choice with Uncertain Outcomes

Choice

Legal work

Illegal work


Choice

Legal work

Illegal work

Unemployed (fail)

Employed (succeed)

Apprehended (fail)

Not Apprehended(succeed)


Choice

Legal work

Illegal work

Unemployed (fail)

Employed (succeed)

Apprehended (fail)


0.1

0.9

$0

$12,000/yr

0.2

0.8

$0

$14,000

Expected legal Income = 0.9*$12,000 = $10,800


Choice

Legal work

Illegal work

Unemployed (fail)

Employed (succeed)

Apprehended (fail)


0.1

0.9

$0

$12,000/yr

0.2

0.8

$0

$14,000/yr

Expected illegal income = 0.8*$14,000 = $11,200



Choice

Legal work

Illegal work

Unemployed (fail)

Employed (succeed)

Apprehended (fail)


0.1

0.9

$0

$12,000/yr

0.2

0.8

$0

$14,000/yr


0.05

0.95

Llad Phillips 61

Social Measures to Reduce CrimeSocial Measures to Reduce Crime Maintain a full-employment economyMaintain a full-employment economy



Choice

Legal work

Illegal work

Unemployed (fail)

Employed (succeed)

Apprehended (fail)


0.1

0.9

$0

$12,000/yr

0.2

0.8

$0

$14,000/yr


0.3

0.7

Llad Phillips 63

Social Measures to Reduce CrimeSocial Measures to Reduce Crime Maintain an Effective Criminal Justice Maintain an Effective Criminal Justice

SystemSystem keep the probability of apprehension highkeep the probability of apprehension high



Choice

Legal work

Illegal work

Unemployed (fail)

Employed (succeed)

Apprehended (fail)


0.1

0.9

$0

$12,000/yr

0.2

0.8

-$3,000 (fine)

$14,000/yrExpected illegal income = 0.8*$14,000 - 0.2*$3,000 = $10,600

$0

Llad Phillips 65

Social Measures to Reduce CrimeSocial Measures to Reduce Crime Punish the criminalPunish the criminal

make crime less attractivemake crime less attractive

Llad Phillips 66

Social Measures to Reduce CrimeSocial Measures to Reduce Crime Maintain a full-employment economyMaintain a full-employment economy Maintain an Effective Criminal Justice Maintain an Effective Criminal Justice

SystemSystem keep the probability of apprehension highkeep the probability of apprehension high

Punish the criminalPunish the criminal make crime less attractivemake crime less attractive

Llad Phillips 67

SummarySummary

Your economic status affects your probable Your economic status affects your probable behavior: work or crimebehavior: work or crime

Earning power affects your probable Earning power affects your probable behaviorbehavior

When you are are a young teen you need a When you are are a young teen you need a parent or role model to motivate you to stay parent or role model to motivate you to stay in school and keep learningin school and keep learning

Llad Phillips 68

Llad Phillips 69

Number of Responses Versus Score for Homicide

1 30 0 0 0 1 2 1

15

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Score

Nu

mb

er2003

Llad Phillips 70

Class Survey 2003Class Survey 2003

Scoring Ten BehaviorsScoring Ten Behaviors 113 Responses113 Responses No two are the sameNo two are the same Two most similar responsesTwo most similar responses Two most different responsesTwo most different responses

Llad Phillips 71

Similar ScoringsSimilar ScoringsHomicide 10 10Poisoning 10 10Rape 10 10Arson 7 8Sell Heroin 7 5Auto Theft 4 7Embezzle 4 4Prostitute 5 2Possess Pot 3 1Sniff Glue 0 0

Llad Phillips 72

Different ScoringsDifferent ScoringsHomicide 10 1Poisoning 10 5Rape 10 2Arson 10 4Sell Heroin 8 3Auto Theft 9 6Embezzle 7 7Prostitute 7 8Possess Pot 5 9Sniff Glue 8 10

Llad Phillips 73

Number of Responses Versus Score for Homicide

1 30 0 0 0 1 2 1

15

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Score

Nu

mb

er2003

Llad Phillips 74

Dispersion Versus Median Score, 2003

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Median Score

Dis

per

sio

n

Llad Phillips 75

Econ 160 Fall 99 Class Ratings .

Sniff Glue

MarijuanaProstitute

Embezzlement

Sell HeroinAuto Theft

ArsonPoisoning

RapeHomicide

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00

Standard Deviation: Dispersion

Mea

n R

atin

g

Llad Phillips 76

SERIOUSNESS SURVEY


MEDIAN ‘03 ‘051. HOMICIDE _10 10__2. MASS POISONING ( e.g. TYLENOL) _ 9 8__ 3. FORCIBLE RAPE _ 9 9__4. ARSON: SET FIRE TO A GARAGE _ 7 7__5. SELLING HEROIN _ 6 6__6. AUTO THEFT _ 5.5 6__7. EMBEZZLEMENT OF $1,000 _ 4 4__8. PROSTITUTE IN A HOUSE OF PROSTITUTION _ 3 3__9. POSSESSION OF MARIJUANA _ 2 2__10. SNIFFING GLUE _ 1 1__

Llad Phillips 77

Misery Index, California 1952-2003

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

year

Rat

e

unemployment rate

inflation rate

misery index

Llad Phillips 78

California Misery Index and Crime Index, 1952-2002

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Ra

te

CA Misery Index

CA Crime Index Per 1000

California: Crime Index Versus Misery Index .

1970

1992

1975

1998

1980

1952

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00

Misery Index

Cri

me I

nd

ex

llad phillips1 jobs and crime. llad phillips2 how best to learn in a lecture class that does not...

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