Llad Phillips 1

The Family and DelinquencyThe Family and Delinquency

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NewsNews

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5 Most Addictive: Heroin, Cocaine, Amphetamine, Alcohol, Nicotine: Newsweek5 Most Addictive: Heroin, Cocaine, Amphetamine, Alcohol, Nicotine: Newsweek

Graph Source:Lancet

Pot

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Recovery/RehabilitationRecovery/Rehabilitation

Adult population

Sober

Toxic 13 % of Adult Population

In Need of Treatment,

Drug & Alcohol Addiction, NJ 2003

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Toxic

Transition ModelTransition Model

Sober

Toxic Sober

Toxic

Sober

Recovery rate

Recidivism rate

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Transition Model-2Transition Model-2

Ptoxic (t=1) PSober (t=1)

Ptoxic (t=2) PSober (t=2

Ptoxic = 0.80 Psober = 0.20

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Transition Model-3Transition Model-3Probability of Being Sober Given the Probabity of Recidivism (Relapse) Assuming a Probability of Recovery of

20%

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Probability of Recidivism

Pro

bab

ility

of

Bei

ng

So

ber

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NewsNews

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Pew Center on the StatesPew Center on the States

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The Family and DelinquencyThe Family and Delinquency

What is the role of the family in causing or What is the role of the family in causing or preventing delinquency?preventing delinquency?

How important is the family in considering How important is the family in considering possible causes of delinquency?possible causes of delinquency?

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The Importance of CausalityThe Importance of Causality

A theme in this courseA theme in this course

Crime Generation

Crime Control

OffenseRate PerCapita

ExpectedCost ofPunishment

Schematic of the Criminal Justice System

Causes ?!!

(detention,deterrence)

Expenditures

Weak Link

“The Driving Force”

Reference: Lecture Six

Source: Report to the Nation on Crime and JusticeReference: Lecture Four

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Expenditures per Capita

Offenses Per Capita

Crime Control Technology

South Dakota North Dakota

0.025 Index crimesper capita

$100

Total cost = expenditures per capita

Total cost = damages to victims

0.050

Total cost = $200 per capita = damages to victims = loss rate*0.05so loss rate = $4,000 per Index Crime in South Dakota

$200

$00

High loss rate state

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CJS Expenditure Per FBI Index Offense VS. Median Income, 2005

Haw aii

New JerseyWyoming

New York

y = 0.3686x - 2170.8

R2 = 0.2868

$0.00

$5,000.00

$10,000.00

$15,000.00

$20,000.00

$25,000.00

$30,000.00

$35,000.00

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000

State Median Income, 2005

CJS

$ P

er O

ffen

se

CJS $ Per FBI Index Offense Vs. IncomeCJS $ Per FBI Index Offense Vs. Income

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California Index Expenses and Criminal Justice System .Expenditures, Both Per Capita, 1967-68 to 1997-98 .

1997-98

1980-81

1967-68

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04 0.045

CA Index Offenses Per Capita

1992 $

Per

Capita

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Family

Education System

Community

Social Institutions Shaping Youth

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“The Rotten Kid Theorem”“The Rotten Kid Theorem”

Reference: Jack Hirshleifer, “The Reference: Jack Hirshleifer, “The Expanding Domain of Economics”Expanding Domain of Economics” Figure 1Figure 1

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Daughter’sIncome

Father’s Income

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Daughter’sIncome, YD

Father’s Income, YF

Daughter’s Selfish Preferences: UD = UD(YD)

Good

Better

Best

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Daughter’sIncome

Father’s Income

Family Joint Income Opportunities WhenBoth the Child and Parent Agree

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R

Short-sighted selfishdaughter prefers point R

Daughter’s Income

Father’s Income

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Daughter’sIncome

Father’s Income

Family Income = Daughter’sIncome + Father’s Income

Father’s Income

R

J

Daughter’sIncome

Family Income Is Maximum At Point J

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How Does the Parent Inducethe Selfish Child to Act in the Family Interest?

How Does the Parent Inducethe Selfish Child to Act in the Family Interest?

Did King Lear Have It Right?Did King Lear Have It Right?

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Daughter’sIncome

Father’s Income

Father’s Altruistic Preferences: UF = UF(YD , YF)

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Why Does The Parent Care For The Child?Why Does The Parent Care For The Child? Darwinian (evolutionary) motive: survival Darwinian (evolutionary) motive: survival

of the genesof the genes

Father’s Income

R

J

Daughter’sIncome

A

If the father is sufficientlyaltruistic, then the daughter’senlightened self-interest is to prefer point A, and she can be induced to behave in a cooperative way, allowing pointJ that leads to point A

Father’s Income

R

J

Daughter’sIncome

B

If the father is insufficientlyaltruistic, then the daughterwill prefer point R to point Band, as a result, family incomeand fortunes will be lower

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So, Love, Not Greed, Makes the World Go ‘RoundSo, Love, Not Greed, Makes the World Go ‘Round In what kind of environment does love and In what kind of environment does love and

caring flourish?caring flourish? both biological parents are presentboth biological parents are present educated, enlightened self-interesteducated, enlightened self-interest a family with enough time and resources to care a family with enough time and resources to care

for one anotherfor one another

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Trends Affecting FamiliesTrends Affecting Families

Changes in Family StructureChanges in Family Structure

Marriage and Divorce Rates Per 1000 Population, US .

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

19

50

19

53

19

56

19

59

19

62

19

65

19

68

19

71

19

74

19

77

19

80

19

83

19

86

19

89

19

92

Year

Rate

Marriages

Divorces

Source: US Statistical Abstract

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Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC

Marriage Rates

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Number of Divorces and Children Affected

Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC

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Age Specific Divorce Rates, men and Women

Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC

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Divorce Rates by Duration of Marriage

Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC

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US Marrige Rates Per 1000 Population, . Unmarried Women 15-44 Years Old

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

Year

Rate

Source: US Statistical Abstract

Median Age at First Marriage, US .

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

Year

Ag

e

Women

Men

Source: US Statistical Abstract

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US Families Headed By Women in Percent .

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1940 1950 1960 1970 1983

Year

Perc

en

t

White

Black

Source: Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families, Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, eds. James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury

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Post World War II PhenomenonPost World War II Phenomenon

““In 1925, approximately 85 perent of black In 1925, approximately 85 perent of black families living in Harlem were intact, and families living in Harlem were intact, and the teenage mother raising her children the teenage mother raising her children alone was virtually unknown...”alone was virtually unknown...”

Source: Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families, Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, eds. James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury

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July

Percentage of Births Occuring Out of Wedlock, . White Women by Age Group, US .

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980

Year

Perc

en

t

15-19

20-24

25-29

Source: Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families, Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, eds. James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury

Percentage of Births Occurring Out of Wedlock, . Black Mothers By Age Group, US

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980

Year

Perc

en

t

15-19

20-24

25-29

Source: Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families, Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, eds. James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury

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Birth Rates for Unmarried Women By Age of Mother

Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC

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Per Cent Low Birth Weight By Age of Mother

Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC

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National Longitudinal Survey of YouthNational Longitudinal Survey of Youth survey of 14-23 year oldssurvey of 14-23 year olds self-report information about contact with the self-report information about contact with the

criminal justice system for -1979criminal justice system for -1979 ever stopped by the policeever stopped by the police ever charged with a crimeever charged with a crime ever convicted of a crimeever convicted of a crime

family incomefamily income family structure when youth was age 14 family structure when youth was age 14

14-23 yearsof age

Report:never stopped

Report: ever stopped28.5%

Report: ever charged17.4%

Report:never charged Report:

neverconvicted

Report:ever convicted10.1%

National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY)

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NLSY: Family Structure, Age 14NLSY: Family Structure, Age 14Family Structure Frequency, % % Ever Charged

Father-Mother 69.1 15.0

Mother-No Man 16.0 19.6

Mother-Stepfather 6.4 28.9

Father-Stepmother 1.8 12.4

Father-No Woman 1.3 22.6

Other Strucures 5.4 24.7

4,927 boys and young men, ages 14-23

Source: William Comanor and Llad Phillips, “The Effect of Family Structure on Teen Delinquency”

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NLSY: Family Structure, Age 14NLSY: Family Structure, Age 14Family Structure Frequency, % %, Ever Given

BirthFather-Mother 66.5 3.5

Mother-No Man 18.8 10.6

Mother-Stepfather 6.8 7.1

Father-Stepmother 1.0 6.2

Father-No Woman 0.8 3.8

Other Structures 6.0 9.0

3119 girls and young women, ages 14-19, never married

Source: William Comanor and Llad Phillips, “The Effect of Family Structure on Teen Delinquency”

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Viewpoints About the Family and DelinquencyViewpoints About the Family and Delinquency Travis Hirschi: a weak child-parent bond or Travis Hirschi: a weak child-parent bond or

attachment explains delinquency(1969)attachment explains delinquency(1969) Joseph Rankin: homes with both biological Joseph Rankin: homes with both biological

parents missing explains running away, parents missing explains running away, truancy, and auto theft(1983)truancy, and auto theft(1983)

Sheppard Kellam, M. Ensminger, and R. J. Sheppard Kellam, M. Ensminger, and R. J. Turner: Being raised by a mother alone Turner: Being raised by a mother alone explains delinquency(1977)explains delinquency(1977)

Source: Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families, Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, eds. James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury

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Themes for this lectureThemes for this lecture

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So, Love, Not Greed, Makes the World Go ‘RoundSo, Love, Not Greed, Makes the World Go ‘Round In what kind of environment does love and In what kind of environment does love and

caring flourish?caring flourish? both biological parents are presentboth biological parents are present educated, enlightened self-interesteducated, enlightened self-interest a family with enough time and resources to care a family with enough time and resources to care

for one anotherfor one another

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The Importance of Social Institutions

The Importance of Social Institutions

Family: social control; human capital Family: social control; human capital School: social control; human capitalSchool: social control; human capital Religious organizations: moral complianceReligious organizations: moral compliance Community groups and centersCommunity groups and centers

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QuestionsQuestions

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Question: Why are people violent?Question: Why are people violent? Before the agricultural societies in Mesopotamia and Before the agricultural societies in Mesopotamia and

the Nile Valley, people were hunters and gatherers the Nile Valley, people were hunters and gatherers and shepherds and tended to fear strangers (And fight and shepherds and tended to fear strangers (And fight them) Paul Seabright, them) Paul Seabright, The Company of Strangers, A The Company of Strangers, A Natural History of Economic Life(2004) Natural History of Economic Life(2004) Princeton U.Princeton U.

After people settled down as farmers they needed After people settled down as farmers they needed social institutions to help them interact with strangerssocial institutions to help them interact with strangers Markets allowed people to deal productively with strangersMarkets allowed people to deal productively with strangers Legal systems and governments allowed settlement of Legal systems and governments allowed settlement of

disputesdisputes Adam Smith; Adam Smith; The Wealth of Nations(1776)The Wealth of Nations(1776)

““It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.”regard to their own interest.”

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THE UNITED STATES CONSTITUTION

THE UNITED STATES CONSTITUTION

We the People of the United States, in Order We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of AmericaUnited States of America

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What Leads to the Loss of Social Control?

What Leads to the Loss of Social Control?

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Social Control of CitizenrySocial Control of Citizenry

Civil law and authorityCivil law and authority First line of defense: moral compliance and good First line of defense: moral compliance and good

citizenshipcitizenship Second line of defense: deterrence (the threat of Second line of defense: deterrence (the threat of

punishment)punishment) Third line of defense: detentionThird line of defense: detention

Martial law and authorityMartial law and authority Fourth line of defense: National Guard and the ArmyFourth line of defense: National Guard and the Army

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PercentControl

MoralCompliance

Deterrence Detention

Riot

Civil LawMartialLaw

National Guard

SchematicSchematic

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Why Is the Imprisonment Rate So High in the USA?

Why Is the Imprisonment Rate So High in the USA?

0.74 %0.74 %

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The U.S. Incarceration Rate is Higher than for Russia, and South Africa; 7 times Italy and 8 times France

                      

        

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Is It Because the US Murder Rate Is So High?

Is It Because the US Murder Rate Is So High?

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#24 USA 0.04 per 1000

http://www.nationmaster.com/

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Is It Because the US Crime Rate Is So High?

Is It Because the US Crime Rate Is So High?

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What Are We Afraid Of?What Are We Afraid Of?

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PercentControl

MoralCompliance

Deterrence Detention

Riot

Civil LawMartialLaw

National Guard

0.74% Prison

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We Are In the Third Line of Defense: DetentionWe Are In the Third Line of Defense: Detention Are we close to the edge?Are we close to the edge? Are we in danger of slipping out of civil authority?Are we in danger of slipping out of civil authority?

Instances- 1992: LA riot: worse than the 1965 Watts Instances- 1992: LA riot: worse than the 1965 Watts riotriot

13 dead13 dead 192 injured 192 injured Governor Pete Wilson activated more than 2000 National Governor Pete Wilson activated more than 2000 National

Guardsmen, mostly military police, to secure areas in Los Guardsmen, mostly military police, to secure areas in Los AngelesAngeles

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That’s All FolksThat’s All Folks

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Probability of Ever Being Charged Vs. Family Income .

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000

Family Income

Pro

bab

ilit

y

Father Present

Father Absent