lme warehousing presentation at arabal conference 2013
DESCRIPTION
Nick Madden, Novelis Senior Vice President and Chief Supply Chain Officer, presented his take on the recent LME warehousing issues at the 2013 Arabal Conference.TRANSCRIPT
©2013 Novelis Inc.
Nick Madden, SVP and Chief Supply Chain Officer
Arabal Conference 2013
How did this situation develop?
Three Questions
What are the key problems?
What are the potential solutions?
Novelis in One Slide!
3 Source: Novelis estimates, 2012 data
33%in 2010
50% by
2015
80% by
2020
39% in 2012
43% in 2013
80%GOAL
14%
10%
5%
4%4%
4%
57%
Novelis #1 Rolled Products Supplier Worldwide
World’s largest recycler of aluminum
4
Why has Novelis been so vocal about the LME warehousing issue?
Today we are sourcing about 3 million tonnes
of primary and recycled aluminum.
We are the world’s largest buyer of aluminum.
How did the warehousing situation develop?
5
$3300 to
$1300/t 20% decline in global consumption
Issue of Over-Supply
Consumption
Production
Australia
W. Europe
N. America
L. America
Africa
Asia China
E. Europe/CIS
7
Oswego, New York2 New Automotive
Finishing Lines
Detroit, MI
LME had rules which required the warehouse to ship a minimum of 1,500 tonnes per dayDetroit Stock Depletion and Revenue Jan/2012
8
Problem Number One: Inflated Premiums
Rise in MWP from 7c/lb to over 12 c/lb
9
Problem Number Two: Supply Chain Risk
September 2011 Wait Time: 5 months
June 2013 Wait Time: 19 months
10
Consumers over paying for metal by $3 billion per year
“[Al Producers] Are Beneficiaries of Warehouse Logjam”October 24, 2013
11
What are the potential solutions?
Aluminum Users Group
There should be no queue.
There should be no queue.
12
“You consumers should be careful what you wish
for…”-Former Senior LME Executive
blog.novelis.com
13
Competition from warehouse incentives was a significant driver of premium escalation
LME warehouses should not charge rent once a warrant is cancelled
There should be no queues