London’s Housing Challenge 2062

Will McKee

Chair Outer London Commission

50 Year Predictions

• I think there is a world market for maybe five computers - Chairman of IBM 1943

• Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality in 10 years – CEO Vacuum Cleaner Company 1955.

50 Year Predictions

• We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out - Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.

• We can close the books on infectious diseases – USA Surgeon General 1969.

Key Influences on Forecasting

• Demand

• Supply

• Other

Key Influences - Demand

• Population trends (birth rate + net in/out)

• Household formulation (size, numbers)

• Tenure preferences (rent or own)

• Ageing population?

• Locational preferences (urban/suburban)

• Mortgage availability (LTV, cost of deposit)

• Ratio between rents and incomes

Key Influences - Supply

• LU policy (density, brownfield, new towns)

• Infrastructure provision (travel, utilities)

• Capacity to build homes at net increase pa

• Cost (affordability, green requirements)

• Systemised building techniques

• Obsolescence of housing (age, floods)

• Public finance availability (grant, benefits)

Key Influences - Other

• Environmental issues (climate change)

• Technological advances (computers)

• Social acceptability (neighbours, density)

• Political structures (will housing stay local)