london 2062 essletzbilcher
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London 2062: The Future of the London Economy Jurgen Essletzbichler Department of Geography UCL [email protected] • What makes cities grow? • What to do when confronted with uncertainty? • London’s economy now • Why growth is not enough? • How to develop a resilient and inclusive city? Overview What makes cities grow? • Path-dependent evolution at the intersection of novelty creation and lock-in – Specialization (Marshall-Arrow-Romer or MAR) – Competition (Porter) – Diversity (Jacobs)TRANSCRIPT
London 2062: The Future of the London Economy
Jurgen EssletzbichlerDepartment of [email protected]
Overview
• What makes cities grow? • What to do when confronted with uncertainty? • London’s economy now• Why growth is not enough? • How to develop a resilient and inclusive city?
What makes cities grow?
• Basic ideas go back to Alfred Marshall (1890) and Jane Jacobs (1969)
• Urbanization and localization economies• Externalities
– Specialization (Marshall-Arrow-Romer or MAR)– Competition (Porter)– Diversity (Jacobs)
• Path-dependent evolution at the intersection of novelty creation and lock-in
Externalities: Empirical results based on meta-analysis
Source: De Groot, H., Poot, J., Smit, M (2010) Cities and Growth: A Meta-Analysis
Diversity necessary to maintain adaptive capacity to uncertain future challenges
• Results depend on geography, time frame, choice of dependent variable, included control variables, etc.
• But: Studies focusing on long-run tend to result in positive and significant diversity effect
• This suggests portfolio-effect of diversity necessary to maintain the adaptive potential of an entity facing uncertainty (Stirling 1998; 2007)
• But probably at cost of short-term efficiency gains and innovativeness
• Possible solutions? Related diversity, clustered diversity, …(Frenken et al. 2007; Simmie et al. 2006, Neffke et al. 2011)
Related variety arguments
• New industries are most successful if cities branch into sectors that are related to existing knowledge base
• Branching into identical sectors results in lock-in• Branching into very different sectors impedes
spillovers
London’s economic structure, 2010
Source: ONS briefing note, BRES 2010: London
thousands PercentInner L. Outer L. UK Inner L. Outer L. UK LQ IL LQ OL
Primary and utilities 11.5 14.6 882 0.4 0.9 3.1 0.13 0.29Manufacturing 42.6 73.7 2,445 1.6 4.3 8.6 0.19 0.50Construction 64.3 85.3 1,395 2.4 5.0 4.9 0.49 1.02Wholesale 69.8 104 1,687 2.6 6.1 5.9 0.44 1.03Retail 191.1 188.1 2,955 7.2 11.1 10.3 0.70 1.08Transport & Storage 85.6 132.6 1,263 3.2 7.8 4.4 0.73 1.77Accommodation &Food Services 203.5 104.2 1,895 7.7 6.1 6.6 1.17 0.92Information & Communication 236.7 81.6 1,066 9.0 4.8 3.7 2.43 1.30Finance & Insurance 295 40.6 1,062 11.2 2.4 3.7 3.03 0.65Property 69.8 29.2 456 2.6 1.7 1.6 1.63 1.06Professional, Scientific & Technical 429.4 128 2,092 16.3 7.5 7.3 2.23 1.03Business Admin Services 262.4 189 2,217 10.0 11.1 7.8 1.28 1.42Education 160.3 169.9 2,603 6.1 10.0 9.1 0.67 1.10Health 213.3 190.5 3,678 8.1 11.2 12.9 0.63 0.87Public Admin 149.7 84.7 1,571 5.7 5.0 5.5 1.04 0.91Arts & Other Services 151.5 83 1,328 5.7 4.9 4.6 1.24 1.07Total 2,636.50 1,699.00 28,595.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Source: ONS briefing note, BRES 2010: London
Finance jobs
2526272829303132333435
Dec
-95
Dec
-97
Dec
-99
Dec
-01
Dec
-03
Dec
-05
Dec
-07
Dec
-09
Finance
Banking
Insurance, auxilliary
London as percent of UK
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
Dec
-95
Dec
-97
Dec
-99
Dec
-01
Dec
-03
Dec
-05
Dec
-07
Dec
-09
Employment trends, London
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Dec
-95
Dec
-97
Dec
-99
Dec
-01
Dec
-03
Dec
-05
Dec
-07
Dec
-09
Percentage of total London emp.
Source: Nomis, ONS
Result on inequality
Because of it’s economic structure, income inequality more pronounced in London
In addition: over 20% youth unemployment rate (especially among those without formal education)
Spatial inequality: Median household income 2006
Source: ONS
Usual practice
• Provide better education for individuals (human capital theory)
• Make individuals responsible to get jobs• Vilify those that fail • Gentrification as “solution” at borough level to initiate inflow
of “desirable” and outflow of “undesirable” residents• But: why not providing jobs for those without formal
education and re-value skills not based on university degrees?
• This could improve adaptability and reduce inequality (especially if coupled with bold re-distributive policies)
Diversification into related sectors
• Example: use I-O matrices to identify– Relatedness (which sectors require inputs that are
available in London)– Similarity of input structure of sectors may indicate
greater knowledge spillover potential
Relatedness based on industry input requirements
Demand from Manufacturing
LondonLQ>1
FinanceBanking
Renting ofmachinery
Dot meansColumn Industry requires>2% of totalInput from Row industry
Advertising,Management consultancy, architecture services
Bottom line• Even if London does not have a competitive advantage in
manufacturing at the moment, it has competitive advantages in some key inputs for a large number of manufacturing sectors
• Not all of those will require proximity of manufacturing companies to those services, but supplier-customer relations could be used to build up a manufacturing base (eg. financing green energy technology, flexible solar cells to be draped around skyscrapers, etc.)
• The service firms would get a better understanding of novel manufacturing sectors to make informed investment decisions
• Manufacturing companies obtain information about financing…
Normatively driven diversification
• Urban agriculture (example New York)
• Vertical gardens (example Mexico City)
Source: NYT• Development of energy
visions (eg. hydrogen city)
• Housing and transportation systems are obvious places to start
Complementary measures• London tax so companies contribute to infrastructure development
(could be in form of required investment in particular businesses)• Developing local visions (eg. energy visions) to galvanize businesses,
government and local communities around particular themes • Increase awareness of energy/waste/climate issues in primary schools
(to obtain long-term shifts in attitudes) and sell the strategy to companies (probably in conjuncture with carbon disclosure projects but also through participation in visioning process)
• Increase living wage and penalize companies who do not comply• Higher tax rates on incomes/bonuses (75-90% rates were common
during and after WWII)• Together with well paid jobs for non-university educated this could
lead to a re-appreciation of diverse skill sets
Conclusion
• An unknowable future requires economic diversity to increase/maintain the adaptive potential of a city (this would also increase resilience)
• Gradual diversification into related sectors and/or normative targets around local visions possible– Outer London is probably better positioned to attract manufacturing
activity• Could increase jobs for the less formally educated and,
together with fairer tax structure, could result in re-evaluation of diverse skills sets
• Economic survival, equality and inclusive development are not mutually exclusive
Appendix: London’s economic structure: SIC-2-digit level
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
44.5
5
01 :
Cro
p an
d an
imal
pro
duct
ion
02 :
Fore
stry
and
logg
ing
03 :
Fish
ing
and
aqua
cultu
re05
: M
inin
g of
coa
l and
ligni
te06
: Ex
tract
ion
of p
etro
leum
and
gas
07 :
Min
ing
of m
etal
ore
s08
: O
ther
min
ing
and
quar
ryin
g09
: M
inin
g su
ppor
t ser
vice
act
ivitie
s10
: M
anuf
actu
re o
f foo
d pr
oduc
ts11
: M
anuf
actu
re o
f bev
erag
es12
: M
anuf
actu
re o
f tob
acco
pro
duct
s13
: M
anuf
actu
re o
f tex
tiles
14 :
Man
ufac
ture
of w
earin
g ap
pare
l15
: M
anuf
actu
re o
f lea
ther
and
rela
ted
prod
ucts
16 :
Man
uf o
f woo
d (in
cl. p
rodu
cts,
exc
. fur
nitu
re)
17 :
Man
ufac
ture
of p
aper
and
pap
er p
rodu
cts
18 :
Prin
ting
and
repr
oduc
tion
of r
ecor
ded
med
ia19
: M
anuf
of c
oke
and
refin
ed p
etro
leum
pro
duct
s20
: M
anuf
of c
hem
ical
s an
d ch
emic
al p
rodu
cts
21 :
Man
uf. o
f bas
ic p
harm
aceu
tical
pro
duct
s22
: M
anuf
actu
re o
f rub
ber a
nd p
last
ic p
rodu
cts
23 :
Man
uf o
f oth
er n
on-m
etal
lic m
iner
al p
rodu
cts
24 :
Man
ufac
ture
of b
asic
met
als
25 :
Man
u. o
f fab
ricat
ed m
etal
pro
duct
s26
: M
anuf
. of c
ompu
ter,
ele
ctro
nic,
opt
ical
pro
duct
s27
: M
anuf
actu
re o
f ele
ctric
al e
quip
men
t28
: M
anuf
actu
re o
f mac
hine
ry a
nd e
quip
men
t n.e
.c.
29 :
Man
ufac
ture
of m
otor
veh
icle
s, tr
aile
rs
30 :
Man
ufac
ture
of o
ther
tran
spor
t equ
ipm
ent
31 :
Man
ufac
ture
of f
urni
ture
32 :
Oth
er m
anuf
actu
ring
33 :
Rep
air/i
nsta
llatio
n of
mac
hine
ry/e
quip
men
t35
: El
ectri
city
, gas
, ste
am/a
ir co
nditio
ning
sup
ply
36 :
Wat
er c
olle
ctio
n, tr
eatm
ent a
nd s
uppl
y37
: Se
wer
age
38 :
Was
te c
olle
ct.,
trea
t., d
ispo
s.; m
ater
ials
39 :
Rem
edia
tion
act./
was
te m
anag
emen
t ser
vice
s.
41 :
Con
stru
ctio
n of
bui
ldin
gs42
: C
ivil
engi
neer
ing
43 :
Spec
ialis
ed c
onst
ruct
ion
activ
ities
45 :
Who
les/
reta
il tra
de/r
epai
r ve
hicl
es/m
otor
cycl
es46
: W
hole
sale
trad
e, e
xc m
otor
47 :
Ret
ail t
rade
, exc
. mot
or v
ehic
les/
mot
orcy
cles
49 :
Land
tran
spor
t and
tran
spor
t via
pip
elin
es50
: W
ater
tran
spor
t51
: A
ir tr
ansp
ort
52 :
War
ehou
sing
/sup
port
act
. for
tran
spor
tatio
n53
: P
osta
l and
cou
rier a
ctiv
ities
55 :
Acc
omm
odat
ion
56 :
Food
and
bev
erag
e se
rvic
e ac
tiviti
es58
: Pu
blis
hing
act
ivitie
s59
: M
otio
n pi
ctur
e, s
ound
, vid
eo, t
elev
isio
n pr
od60
: Pr
ogra
mm
ing
and
broa
dcas
ting
activ
ities
61 :
Tel
ecom
mun
icat
ions
62 :
Com
pute
r pr
ogra
m.,
cons
ulta
ncy/
rela
ted
act
63 :
Info
rmat
ion
serv
ice
activ
ities
64 :
Fina
nc.s
erv.
act
., ex
insu
r./pe
nsio
n fu
nds
65 :
Insu
ranc
e, r
eins
uran
ce a
nd p
ensi
on fu
ndin
g66
: A
ct. A
ux. t
o fin
ance
. Ser
v, a
nd in
sura
nce
act.
68 :
Rea
l est
ate
activ
ities
69 :
Lega
l and
acc
ount
ing
activ
ities
70 :
Act
. hea
d of
fices
; mgm
t con
sulta
ncy
act.
71 :
Arc
hite
ctur
al a
nd e
ngin
eerin
g ac
tiviti
es72
: Sc
ient
ific
rese
arch
and
dev
elop
men
t73
: Ad
vert
isin
g an
d m
arke
t res
earc
h74
: O
ther
pro
fess
iona
l, sc
ient
ific,
tech
nica
l act
.75
: Ve
terin
ary
activ
ities
77 :
Ren
tal a
nd le
asin
g ac
tivitie
s78
: E
mpl
oym
ent a
ctiv
ities
79 :
Trav
el a
genc
y, to
ur o
pera
tor
80 :
Secu
rity
and
inve
stig
atio
n ac
tiviti
es81
: S
ervi
ces
to b
uild
ings
and
land
scap
e ac
tiviti
es82
: O
ffice
adm
in,
busi
ness
sup
port
activ
ities
84 :
Publ
ic a
dmin
istra
tion
and
defe
nce
85 :
Educ
atio
n86
: H
uman
hea
lth a
ctiv
ities
87 :
Res
iden
tial c
are
activ
ities
88 :
Soci
al w
ork
activ
ities
with
out a
ccom
mod
atio
n90
: C
reat
ive,
arts
and
ent
erta
inm
ent a
ctiv
ities
91 :
Libr
arie
s, a
rchi
ves,
mus
eum
s 92
: G
ambl
ing
and
betti
ng a
ctiv
ities
93 :
Spor
ts a
ctiv
ities
, am
usem
ent,
recr
eatio
n ac
t.94
: A
ctiv
ities
of m
embe
rshi
p or
gani
satio
ns95
: R
epai
r of c
ompu
ters
, per
sona
l, H
H g
oods
96 :
Oth
er p
erso
nal s
ervi
ce a
ctiv
ities
Location quotients
Agriculture/mining
Manufacturing
Electr/Gas supply
Waste
Airtransport