los angeles 4 regional investor conference - …cao.lacity.org/debt/invconf2018/lacounty.pdflos...
TRANSCRIPT
Los Angeles 4th Regional Investor Conference
March 19-20, 2018
Joseph Kelly, Treasurer and Tax Collector
Hollywood Hills MLK JR Community Hospital LA Financial District
Table of Contents
I. Tax Reform Update – Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (H.R.1)
II. County Economic Overview
III. State of The County
IV. Strategic County Investments
a) Homeless Initiative
b) Vermont Corridor Project
c) LACMA Expansion
d) Future County Financings
V. Closing Remarks
Tax Reform and Impacts to the County Although the immediate effect of tax changes are not yet apparent, the impact to assessed valuations and social services for the County appears to be moderate
$10,000 SALT Deduction Cap
1.5 million County residents claim a SALT deduction, averaging $18,649
Of the 2.4 million parcels in LA County, 300,000 (13%) have tax bills greater than $10,000
Limitation on deductibility of mortgage interest
Tax reform could impact property sales in the near term, at the median market value and greater
Reduction of individual tax rates
Property owners could be impacted in other areas, which may offset lost deductions for property taxes or mortgage interest
Key Provisions
1
Tax Reform: Year-End Payment Frenzy LA County experienced unprecedented property tax collections in December following the passing of the H.R.1 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
First installment Secured Property Tax Roll collections of $10 billion (55.6%) through December 10, 2017 were in line with previous years’ rates
Residents rushed to pre-pay the April 2018 installment early in order to get the full SALT deduction prior to the December 31 cut-off
From December 22 to 31, the County collected a record $1.1 billion in property taxes
Combined collections totaled $11.1 billion, or 62% of the fiscal year 2017-18 Secured Property Tax Roll
LA County’s stored value remains strong despite unknown impacts of Tax Reform and a record level of property tax payments at year end
Southern California is a very competitive real estate market with limited housing inventory
While consumer behavior could be impacted in the short term, longer term this may simply be viewed as the new norm and part of the cost of home ownership
3
Strong Real Estate Market Continues to Bolster Economy
For FY 2017-18, the County Assessor reported the largest revenue-producing valuation in the history of the County
– A net assessed value of $1.416 trillion
– An increase in assessed value of 6.0% compared to FY 2016-17
The County has experienced seven consecutive years of assessed value growth (FY 2011-12 to FY 2017-18)
Significant "stored value" as a result of Proposition 13 helped minimize the impact to property tax rolls from falling home values during the economic downturn
914
998
1,068 1,062 1,042 1,056 1,080
1,130
1,192
1,265 $1,336
1,416
$750
$850
$950
$1,050
$1,150
$1,250
$1,350
$1,450
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Net Assessed Valuation, YoY Growth Rates ($Millions)
4
Source: Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation *Projection
Larger economy than 43 states and all but 20 nations
Gross product of $669.9 billion represents 28% of the economic output in California and nearly 4% of US GDP
Population of over 10 million with total personal income of $585 billion
Highly diversified economy with major components in manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, leisure and hospitality, entertainment, healthcare and education
Ports of LA/Long Beach encompass largest port complex in the U.S. by container volume and annual cargo tonnage
Economic Overview: Los Angeles County The County’s robust economy has been a catalyst for regional economic expansion, job creation, and improving wealth indicators
Select Economic Indicators (2017)*
State of
California
Los Angeles County
County as a % of the
State Gross Domestic Product ($b) 2,379 669.9 28%
Population (000) 39,613 10,278 26%
Personal Income ($m) 2,300 585 25%
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.8% 4.6% -
GDP Growth of Los Angeles County ($ in Billions)
$453 $481
$515 $534
$551 $566
$582 $595
$616 $629
$670
450
500
550
600
650
700
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
5
County Employment Base is Vibrant and Diverse
Major Firms and Universities Headquartered in LA Average unemployment rate decreased 63.5% from 12.6% in 2010 to 4.6% in 2017
The County is a leading national research center and home to 120 colleges and university campuses including Caltech, UCLA, and USC
Largest manufacturing center in the U.S.
Largest customs district in the U.S.
County Average Unemployment Rate (2004-2017)
6.5%
5.4% 4.8%
5.1%
7.5%
11.6%
12.6% 12.3%
10.9%
9.8%
8.2%
6.6%
5.2% 4.6%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: State of California Employment Development Department
6
Improving Wealth Levels Steady Growth in Consumer Spending
The County has benefited from consistent growth, increased assessed valuations, and higher wealth levels, which have spurred consumer spending
Population Continues to Grow Assessed Valuation Growth
$455 $487 $484
$513 $544 $557 $585 $602
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*
Tota
l Per
sona
l Inc
ome
(Bill
ions
) Strong Economic Trends in Los Angeles County
9,897 9,970
10,045 10,109
10,170 10,240
10,278 10,328
9,600
9,700
9,800
9,900
10,000
10,100
10,200
10,300
10,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*
Thou
sand
s
126 135 140 147 151
160 171
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Tota
l Tax
able
Sal
es (B
illio
ns)
1,042
1,056
1,080 1,130
1,192 1,265
1,336 1,416
950
1,050
1,150
1,250
1,350
1,450
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation *Projection
7
Board Priorities:
The Supervisors are united in the development of programmatic priorities aligned with three strategic goals:
− Make Investments That Transform Lives
− Foster Vibrant and Resilient Communities
− Realize Tomorrow’s Government Today
Strong Financial Management:
− Demonstrated fiscal prudence and long term strategic planning
Strategic Investments:
County Action Plan to Prevent and Combat Homelessness: Measure H approved by 69.3% of voters and expected to generate $355 million in annual sales tax revenue
Continued Investment in Infrastructure and Environment: Measure A raises $94 million per year for the County’s local parks, beaches, and open space areas
State of the County The Board of Supervisors is focused on strategically investing capital resources to enhance infrastructure and to improve delivery of social services throughout the County
8
Homeless Initiative – The Action Plan The County has engaged stakeholders across the region to implement an action plan of 47 interlocking strategies involving more than 100 community groups, 30 cities, and a diverse group of leaders to effectively combat and prevent homelessness
Case Management and Services
Coordinated System
Affordable Housing
Prevention
Subsidized Housing
Increase Income
9
Vermont Corridor Project
State of the art facility accommodates 2,064 County staff from Departments of Mental Health and Workforce Development Aging and Community Services
Employee consolidation improves services for residents
Facility will provide valuable social services to residents
Department of Mental Health Headquarters (Development Site 1)
10
LACMA’s Innovative Expansion With the new Permanent Collection building, the LACMA campus will be a world-class destination and an asset to the community
387,500 sq foot building will replace four deteriorating buildings with an environmentally sustainable structure
Design embraces state-of-the art resource management and technology that seamlessly integrates with the existing park
3.5 acres of new public outdoor space
Construction anticipated to begin at end of 2018 and be completed in 2023
11
Future County Financings The County expects to be in the market with several financings during 2018
County expects to issue approximately $700 million of 2018-19 Tax and Revenue Anticipation Notes
Future County Lease Revenue Bond Financings Include:
− Lease Revenue Bonds (Vermont Corridor Project)- $300 million Par (Aug 2018)
− LACMA Project- $125 million County contribution (Oct 2018)
− Consolidated Correctional Treatment Facility (Jail Replacement Project) - $1.5 to 2 billion Par (TBD)
Current lease revenue bond ratings are as follows:
− Standard & Poor’s: AA
− Moody’s Aa2 (recently upgraded in 2017)
− Fitch AA-
12
The County’s economy is larger than all but 7 U.S. states and has a $1.40 trillion property tax base
Consistent with the County’s long history of responsible, fiscally conservative practices, Board Priorities and Initiatives are being funded with new revenue streams
The County has developed a robust action plan to tackle homelessness
Targeted revitalization projects (i.e. Vermont Corridor Project)
Investment in art and public space (i.e. LACMA expansion)
Closing Remarks
13