lotlinx covid-19 market analysis 04.30 · 3 insights & recommendations...
TRANSCRIPT
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LOTLINX COVID-19 MARKET ANALYSIS
04.30.20
2 OVERVIEW
At times of crisis, all dealers and automotive partners need to be armed
with the data necessary to make the smartest decisions for their business.
This market overview analyzes current government, OEM, and consumer
responses to the COVID-19 outbreak, as well as predictions for the future
impact of the pandemic.
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3 INSIGHTS & RECOMMENDATIONS
● TV/Radio/Internet/Streaming is being consumed at the home.
○ More in home: Video, desktop traffic, streaming music and TV.
● Market Presence: We are advising our dealers to consider carefully any adjustments to their marketplace
presence, and to maintain a strong bias toward preserving all low funnel traffic to SRP, VDP or service pages.
○ These types of marketing are the lowest funnel customers and typically the most likely to buy a vehicle or to
schedule a service campaign. We recommend dealers to reassess their current marketing efforts and
consider reducing spend on branding campaigns and third-party listing sites.
● Consumer behavior has changed during these turbulent times, but they still expect you to offer them insight
into your brand.
● Digital Retailing: Dealers offering Free Home Delivery, Online Checkout, Over the Phone Sales, Delivery in the
Parking Lot will garner more business over the next few months. We believe this will also speed up the Digital
Retailing portion of your business after the market recovers as explained in “Just Faster” by Brian Pasch.
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4 WHAT NEXT?
1.Schedule a walk through
of recommendations
designed to maximize
your outcomes with a
dedicated LotLinx
inventory strategist
2.Evaluate the
opportunities, not just
problems, in your current
market
3.Find ways to leverage your
existing services that will
provide long-term support
for current and potential
customers
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5 AREAS TO SPOTLIGHT FOR NEAR TERM RECOVERY
Marketing
➔ Assess your current marketing strategy
➔ Avoid removing all ads, especially
anything that is low funnel traffic to SRP,
VDP or service
➔ Analyze and re-prioritize marketing
channels during the outbreak
➔ Consider reducing marketing spend on
branding campaigns and third party
listing sites
Branding
➔ Adjust marketing message
➔ Communicate how your dealership is
being responsible and responding to the
pandemic
➔ Align your messaging with Tier I and Tier
II to have a consistent, strong brand
statement
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6 KEY CONSIDERATIONS
Maintain an online presence:
Consumers are still shopping for
cars, and right now, they’re online
more than ever. Businesses that
stop advertising in times of crisis
are likely to lose share of mind and
market. Stay present, but
acknowledge the issue at hand.
Expand your current services:
Get your finger on the pulse of
what consumers need in these
turbulent times. Free at home
deliveries and online check-outs are
just some offerings that can go a
long way in a consumer’s mind.
Stay informed and inform your consumers:
Inform shoppers of in-stock
inventory and available services.
Transparently communicate how
your business is being responsible,
including statements about your
strict adherence to CDC guidelines
and your commitment to the
community.
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7 EXAMPLE OF EFFECTIVE DEALERSHIP MESSAGING
Focusing on services they do offer to help customers stay home and employees stay busy:
➔ Over-the phone and online service appointments
➔ Complimentary vehicle pick-up and drop-off
services for service appointments
Adhering to social distancing guidelines:
➔ Fresh pair of gloves, protective seat covers and
disinfectant wipes
➔ Frequent sanitation and additional hand
sanitizing dispensers
➔ Six feet of distance between all customers and
employees © 2002, 2009, 2012, 2016-2020 LOTLINX, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
© 2002, 2009, 2012, 2016-2020 LOTLINX, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
LOTLINX COVID-19 MARKET OVERVIEW
1. ECONOMIC IMPACT
2. CONSUMER BEHAVIOR IMPACT
3. AUTOMOTIVE MARKET IMPACT
4. OEM IMPACT
5. INDUSTRIES BEHAVIOR IMPACT
6. COMMUNITY IMPACT
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ECONOMICIMPACT
10 GOVERNMENT RESPONSE
Self-Quarantine Event Cancellations
COVID-19 Testing
Non-Essential Business Closures School Closures
Resources (food, supplies) Economic Relief Healthcare Capacity
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11
● Signed into law 3/27/20
● Highlights:
○ Direct payments: One-time direct deposit of up to $1,200 to taxpaying Americans. Restrictions apply.
○ Unemployment: $250 billion for an extended unemployment insurance program
○ Small business relief: $350 billion dedicated to preventing layoffs and business closures. Companies with
500 employees> that maintain payroll can receive up to 8 weeks of cash-flow assistance.
○ Large corporations: $500 billion will be allotted to provide loans, loan guarantees, and other investments.
○ Hospitals and health care: $140 billion+ in appropriations to support the U.S. health system, provide
personal and protective equipment for health care workers, testing supplies, increased workforce and
training, accelerated Medicare payments, etc.
○ Coronavirus testing: All testing and potential vaccines for COVID-19 will be covered at no cost to patients.
○ States and local governments: $150 billion to state, local and tribal governments. $30 billion for states and
educational institutions, $45 billion for disaster relief, and $25 billion for transit programs.
○ Agriculture: Agriculture Department bailout program increased to $50 billion
CARES - Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act
Source: The CARES Act Has Passed: Here Are The Highlights
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12
What it means for dealers:
▪ $349 billion dedicated to Small Business Administration (SBA) loans
▪ Available for companies with no more than 500 employees at the franchise level
▪ Be sure your OEM is registered with the SBA
▪ The maximum loans are 2.5 times the average monthly payroll for the preceding 12
months, or $10 million
▪ Loan proceeds may only be used for payroll, health benefits, mortgage interest, rent and
utilities
Source: CARES Act Contains SBA Loan Provisions Favorable to Most Dealerships
CARES ACT - SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION LOANS
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13 CURRENT CASES
Source: World Health Organization
Current stages of the impact of COVID-19 around the world:
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14 HOW LONG WILL IT LAST?
China started seeing reversal of cases as early as
4 weeks post quarantine &
8 weeks post initial panic.
Source: Mapping the spread of the Coronavirus in the U.S. and worldwide, The Washington Post
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15 SIGNS OF RECOVERY
As of April 7th, the number of cases
has started to decline in most major
nations.
However, the U.S. still has the highest
number of confirmed cases in the
world.
Source: Coronavirus Map Tracking, The New York Times © 2002, 2009, 2012, 2016-2020 LOTLINX, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
16 SIGNS OF RECOVERY
China is showing several areas of recovery, with daily new cases, active
cases, and newly infected cases rapidly decreasing.
DAILY NEW CASES ACTIVE CASESNEWLY INFECTED VS.
NEWLY RECOVERED
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Source: World O Meters
17
Optimistic that a potential global economic
downturn could be short-lived, mitigating negative
impacts on the worldwide ad market.
Most likely scenario: “V-Shape” A classic economic
shock, where growth eventually rebounds.
Source: What Coronavirus Could Mean for the Global Economy, HBR
U.S. GDP PREDICTIONS COMPARED TO PAST EPIDEMICS
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18 U.S. GDP PREDICTIONS COMPARED TO PAST EPIDEMICS
Past epidemics have all been “V-Shaped”:
Source: What Coronavirus Could Mean for the Global Economy, Harvard Business Review
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19 EQUITY MARKETS
As fears of recession increased, equity
markets plunged in March with
most exchanges losing
around ⅓ of their value.
Source: An instant economic crisis: How deep and how long? McKinsey & Company
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20 EQUITY MARKETS
In China, where the pandemic has subsided, equity markets have suffered less in recent weeks.
Source: An instant economic crisis: How deep and how long? McKinsey & Company
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21 VOLATILITY INDEXES
Volatility indexes have generally spiked,
hitting readings not seen since the 2008/2009 financial crisis.
Source: An instant economic crisis: How deep and how long? McKinsey & Company
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22 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Source: Assessing the near-term impact of COVID-19 on US workers
U.S. initial unemployment
claims reached an all-time
high of 6.6 million
between March 21-28.
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CONSUMER BEHAVIORIMPACT
24 REMINDER FOR CASH CLUNKERS
Cash for Clunkers showed the power of incentives to drive sales
9.6 millionSales pace before Cash for Clunkers
10.7 millionSales pace following
Cash for Clunkers
Source: Did 'Cash-for-Clunkers' work as intended?
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25 PREDICTED GLOBAL AD SPEND
In 2020, we expect total media ad
spending worldwide will reach
$691.7 billion up by 7.0% from 2019.
Source: How COVID-19 Has—And Has Not—Affected Global Ad Spending, E-Marketer
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26 CONCERNS
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Overall concern about the outbreak is back on the rise, with 62% of adults concerned about the spread.
Source: Tracking Public Opinion on the Coronavirus, The Morning Consult
27 CONSUMER CONCERNS
35% of respondents believe people should shelter in place until further notice.
Source: Daily COVID-19 Update: Concern + Media Consumption, Nuvoodoo
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28 BEHAVIOR CHANGES
43% of respondents report feeling extremely concerned and significantly impacted by the virus.
Source: Daily COVID-19 Update: Concern + Media Consumption, Nuvoodoo
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29 BEHAVIOR CHANGES
Source: The Weekly Consumer Pulse, William Blair
U.S. consumers have been adjusting their leisure activities since the outbreak.
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30 SPENDING CHANGES
Consumers have greatly
increased their
spending on groceries
and have cut back in all other
areas.
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Source: How the Virus Transformed the Way
Americans Spend Their Money
31 SHOPPING TRENDS
Various industries have seen extreme increases or decreases in consumption due to social distancing necessities.
Source: How the Virus Transformed the Way Americans Spend Their Money
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32 SHOPPING TRENDS
Source: COVID-19: TRACKING THE IMPACT ON FMCG, RETAIL AND MEDIA, Nielsen
Online shopping trends continue to be on the rise, especially for
household cleaning essentials.
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U.S. WEEKLY COVID-19 CATEGORY TRENDS % sales growth vs year ago
33 SHOPPING TRENDS
Source: COVID-19 Ecommerce Impact Report, Steelhouse
Purchase and consumer growth for
fitness and furniture verticals continue to rise.
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34 INCREASED TIME SPENT ON ONLINE ACTIVITIES
Reading more
news stories
Source: Coronavirus: how news consumption is changing across the U.S. and UK, Global Web Index
Watching more
live videos
Sharing more
photos/videosSharing more memes
↑ 48% 28%
18% 18%
↑
↑ ↑
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Sharing more news
Started following
more journalists
27%
17%
↑
↑
35 CONSUMPTION OF NEWS & MEDIA
Source: McKinsey & Company Implications for Business
Consumption of news and media is
evolving toward television, online, & social,
while moving away from print.
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36 CONSUMPTION OF NEWS & MEDIA
Source, Media Consumption during the Coronavirus Pandemic, Comscore
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37 CONSUMPTION OF NEWS & MEDIA
Source: Media Economy: How Far Down is Down? The Myers Report
The Myers Report predicts an
increase in Broadcast Network TV, Social Media, PR, Video Game Advertising, & Content Marketing consumption.
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38 CONSUMPTION OF NEWS & MEDIA
Source: Daily COVID-19 Update: Concern + Media Consumption, Nuvoodoo
85% of users report using at least one media source more since the outbreak.
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39 CONSUMPTION OF TELEVISION
TV viewing levels are up, especially during the evening news:
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People watch the
evening news per week
Increase in people
watching the evening news
from the year before
32.2m 42%↑Increase among young
adults aged 25-54
67%↑
Source: The New York Times, The Evening News Is Back
40 CONSUMPTION OF TELEVISION
The top 25 local markets saw, on average, an 11 percent increase in daily households viewing local news.
Source, Media Consumption during the Coronavirus Pandemic, Comscore
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41 CONSUMPTION OF RADIO
Radio listenership is trending up, as 29% of users report using it more since the outbreak,
and 31% are using it to keep informed about local cases.
Source: Daily COVID-19 Update: Concern + Media Consumption, Nuvoodoo
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42 CONSUMPTION OF STREAMING VIDEO
During two previous crises that kept people housebound, consumers watched 61% more streaming video content. Predictions
show that Coronavirus will have consumers follow a similar trajectory, expecting streaming video content to rise by over 60%.
Source: Self-Isolating Because of Coronavirus? You’re Probably Watching TV, AdWeek
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43 CONSUMPTION OF VIDEO
Source: Video on Demand Transactions Increase in Month of March, Comscore
Comscore has reported video on demand subscription increases in nearly every category.
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44 CONSUMPTION OF SOCIAL MEDIA
Twitter has seen that COVID-19 related content is
shared every 45 milliseconds and #coronavirus is
now the second most used hashtag of 2020.
Source: Brand communications in times of crisis, Twitter
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45 LONG-TERM SHIFTS IN CONSUMPTION HABITS
Education
Shift from offline to online
E-Commerce
Continued growth, attracting
older generations
Service Delivery
Transformation from
IRL to virtual
Traditional Businesses
Accelerated digital
transformation efforts
Source: What do consumers expect from brands? Kantar
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46 LONG-TERM SHIFTS IN CONSUMPTION HABITS
© 2002, 2009, 2012, 2016-2020 LOTLINX, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Source: The Weekly Consumer Pulse, William Blair
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AUTOMOTIVE MARKETIMPACT
48
Immediately we have seen a huge and expected drop in sales volume, but
are now seeing rises in shopper engagement. Shoppers are now sitting at home and spending more time looking at the cars they plan to buy in the future.
NATIONWIDE SHOPPER METRICS AND SALES
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49
Across the board, sales volumes are down,
but many models are enjoying higher shopper volumes and engagement.
NATIONWIDE PERFORMANCE OF VINS
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50 DEALERSHIP CLOSURES BY STATE
States issuing nonessential business closures:
AlaskaCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMissouri
States impacted by dealership sales bans
Montana Nevada New MexicoNorth CarolinaOhioOklahomaPennsylvania Rhode IslandTennesseeTexasVermontVirginiaWashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsin
Source: COVID-19 Updates for the U.S. Retail and Real Estate Industry Source: Automotive News COVID-19 Headlines
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OEM IMPACT
52
1 MILLION+
AUTO WORKERS
people employed in automobile parts and manufacturing in the U.S.
1.3 MILLIONpeople work for auto dealerships
in the U.S.
The United Auto Workers union has been pressuring major manufacturers to continue
to adhere to CDC guidelines.
Source: The New York Times
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53
GENERAL MOTORS
U.S. Manufacturing Suspension:No official date for restart. Plants making face masks.
Consumer Aid: - Flexible payment extensions and
deferrals for current customers.- Providing 0% interest on 84-month
loans and 120-day deferred payments on new-vehicle purchases for select customers.
OEM BREAKDOWN
FORD MOTOR COMPANY
U.S. Manufacturing Suspension:No official date for restart. Michigan plant making respirators.
Consumer Aid: - Flexible payment extensions and
deferrals for current customers.- 90-day first payment deferral and
payment relief for first three payments.
General Aid:The Ford Fund is donating $500,000 to nonprofit groups and food delivery.
FIAT CHRYSLER AUTOMOTIVES
U.S. Manufacturing Suspension:Through 5/3.
Consumer AId: - Flexible payment extensions and
deferrals for current customers.- Interest-free financing for 84 months
and deferred payment for 90 days on select models.
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54
HONDA
U.S. Manufacturing Suspension:Resumes 5/11.
Consumer Aid: - Current customer payment extensions
and deferrals. - 90-Day Deferred Payment on new
vehicle sales financed by Honda Financial Services for qualified customers.
- $1,000 cash toward new models. - Low-APR financing for certifies
models.
OEM BREAKDOWN
NISSAN
U.S. Manufacturing Suspension:Resumes mid-May.
Consumer Aid:- Case-by-case payment rescheduling
for current customers. - 0% APR financing- 90 day payment deferral and two
months of payment relief
HYUNDAI
U.S. Manufacturing Suspension:Resumes 5/4.
Consumer Aid: - 90-day deferred payments for current
customers. Extended warranty protection through June.
- 0% financing for 84 months- 120-day payment deferrals on select
models. - Assurance Job Loss Protection will
make up 6 months of payments for customers who buy before 4/30 and lose their jobs.
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55
TOYOTA
U.S. Manufacturing Suspension:Resumes 5/11. Plants making face shields, masks, and ventilators.
Consumer Aid: - Flexible payment extensions and
deferrals for current customers.- Deferred payments for 90 days on
select new vehicles.
OEM BREAKDOWN
VOLKSWAGEN
U.S. Manufacturing Suspension:No official date for restart.
Consumer Aid:- 90-day payment deferrals and
6-month lease extension for current customers.
- 180-day payment deferrals- 0%, 72-month financing for new-car
buyers.
SUBARU
U.S. Manufacturing Suspension:Through 5/11.
Consumer Aid:- 90-day payment extensions and
6-month lease extensions for current customers.
- 0 interest financing for 63 months on select models
- 90-day payment deferrals
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INDUSTRIES IMPACT
57
UBER
Changes in Service:
- Suspending “pool” rides
- Free Uber Eats delivery from local businesses
Messaging:
RIDE SHARES
LYFT
Changes in Service:
- Suspending shared rides
- Offering compensation to sick drivers
Messaging:
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58
AMERICAN AIRLINES
Changes in Service:
- Waiving flight change feed through 4/30
- Changing flight schedules to eliminate unnecessary travel
Messaging:
TRANSPORTATION EXAMPLES
DELTA
Changes in Service:
- Assisting with flight cancellations and waiving fees
- Addressing proper cleaning procedures
Messaging:
AMTRAK
Changes in Service:
- No change fees for cancellations- Updates on suspended services- Guides for cancelling reservations
Messaging:
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59
Changes in Service:
- Small and medium-sized businesses receiving $340 million in Google Ad credits.
- $250 million in ad grants for government organizations
SERVICES EXAMPLES
DEALERSOCKET
Changes in Service:
- Giving test drive technology free for 100 days
- Consumers can request test drives at any location
Messaging:
DIGITAL AIR STRIKE
Changes in Service:
- Retailing platform can conduct sales and vehicle servicing through video and virtual messaging
- Free for 30 days
Messaging:
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POSITIVE IMPACT
61
Social distancing in areas like China and Italy has resulted in
decreased traffic and industrial business pollution and reduced the amount of nitrogen dioxide emissions in the air.
AIR POLLUTION DECLINE
Source: Earth Observatory
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62
Dozens of research organizations across the globe are on
the hunt to uncover a vaccine for the virus, with U.S. researchers already administering a trial study in Washington state.
VACCINE TESTING
Source: PBS
Bill and Melinda Gates have started
backing seven of the most promising vaccines in production.
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63
1.DIGITAL RETAILING
As trends continue to shift toward digital, it is more important than ever to be advertising online.
SUGGESTIONS FOR AUTO RETAILERS
2.
HOME DELIVERY & ONLINE ORDERS
Now is the time to expand services to appeal to online-focused consumers.
3.INVENTORY DRIVEN MARKETING
The sales approach is shifting toward targeting individual consumers. To do this, advertising must focus on your must-sell inventory as opposed to general messaging.
4.UTILIZING DATA
Dealers need to continue to stay informed of fluctuating market data to make informed marketing decisions.
Drawing attention to expanded consumer services can be as easy as adding badges to your digital advertisements.
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YOURIMPACT
65
“If a window of opportunity appears, don't pull down the shade.”
- Tom Peters
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