Low-carbon growth in Brazil?

Gilberto Câmara National Institute for Space Research

~230 scenes Landsat/year

Yearly detailed estimates of clear-cut areas

PRODES: Clear-cut deforestation mapping

15-day alerts of newly deforested large areas

DETER: Real -time Deforestation Monitoring

International credibility helps…

TerraAmazon

“Today, Brazil’s monitoring system is the envy of the world. INPE has its own remote sensing satellite, a joint effort with China, that allows it to publish yearly totals of deforested land that scientists regard as reliable.”

Transparency builds governance

Transparency builds governance

500.000 registrations46 million protests

Myth 1: The impact of deforestation

Deforestation is responsible for 20% of global carbon emissions (Sir David King)

How does he know?

Myth 1: The impact of deforestation

Brazil (1990s): 22.000 km2 average - about 8% of CO2 emissions Brazil (2005-2010 est): 12.000 km2 - about 5% of CO2 emissions

Myth 2: High cost of avoiding deforestationAvoided deforestation costs 30 € per tCO2

Does it really?

Myth 2: The high cost of avoiding deforestation

50.000 km2 of avoided deforestation from 2005-2008How much did it cost?

Myth 2: High cost of avoiding deforestation

cost of monitoring and enforcement (US$ 100 M-year)

Brazil grew on 2005-2008 at 3.5% average

Myth 2: High cost of avoiding deforestation

source: Imazon graphics: Mongabay

Avoiding deforestation in Amazonia has a negative cost

Myth 3: REDD is necessary and beneficial

Money to whom?

migrant workers?

big farmers? I need my SUV

REDD may induce leakages: counterproductive

ALAP BR 319Estradas pavimentadas em 2010Estradas não pavimentadasRios principais

0.0 -0.50Less:0.0 0.10More:

Differences:Protection areas

Sustainable areas

Myth 4: Developed countries are willing to do technology transfer

E2V CCD device CBERS-3 satellite

“E2V will no longer sell CCDs to Brazil because we are committed to ITAR regime” (2008)

Achieving targets = good governance + market incentives

Action Item 2: Brazil´s targets for deforestation

Action Item 2: Biofuels need fair markets

Action Item 3: Markets have a positive rôle

Open Globes

OpenForestMap WikiForest

Scientists, Citizens, Markets

National, int´l agencies

Angola

Congo DR

Action Item 4: Global Forest Information System

Data: INPE´s vision for the future

A constellation of satellites and sensors will provide free earth observation data for all countries on Earth

CBERS as a global satellite

CBERS ground stations will cover most of the Earth’s land mass between 300N and 300S

“A few satellites can cover the entire globe, but there needs to be a system in place to ensure their images are readily available to everyone who needs them. Brazil has set an important precedent by making its Earth-observation data available, and the rest of the world should follow suit.”