low carbon london - ofgem...wholesale price (£/mwh) • supplier needs and dno needs are unlikely...

Low Carbon London Influencing Customer Profiles and New Interactions

Adriana Laguna

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2011. UK Power Networks. All rights reserved

• Introduction of Low Carbon London

• Time of Use tariffs

• Results from the trials

• Deployment of Time of Use tariffs

• Customer reaction to dToU tariffs

• What did we learn?

Low Carbon London Influencing Customer Profiles and New Interactions

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Low Carbon London Overview

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Demand Side Response &

Distributed Generation

Network planning &

operation

Electrification

of heat &

transport

Present a holistic view of the smart distribution network - grounded in

extensive real world data and experience, and justified through cost-

benefit analysis and implementation strategies

Smart meters Instrumenting

a smart grid

Electrification of

heat & transport

Demand side

response

Dynamic Time

of Use Tariffs

Active Network

Management

Thre

e

them

es

Six

tria

l are

as

One

obje

ctive


Low Carbon London Smart meters and dynamic tariffs

• Unique smart meter trial in Great Britain

• Statistically robust results: control group of c. 4,500 households

• First appliance survey of this magnitude: survey data from 2,500

households

• Insight to customer perception: 37 semi-structured in-depth interviews

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5,600 customers

with a SMART METER

1,100 under dToU

4,500 Control Group

2,500 Appliance

Survey








Low Carbon London

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Time of Use Tariffs

• Static time of use tariffs can present network benefits

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Duke Street Clapham Park Road

8am - 8pm Time Slot 8am - 8pm Time Slot

Substation Peak - Top 5% load Substation Peak - Top 5% load


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pri

ce (

£/M

Wh

)

Wholesale price (£/MWh)

• Supplier needs and DNO needs are unlikely to be sufficiently

aligned for network benefits to be realised as a result of a wholesale

price-driven ToU tariff.

Dynamic Time of Use Tariffs Wholesale price-driven tariffs

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Dynamic Time of Use Tariffs The Low Carbon London approach

• ToU initiatives in GB have been focused on static tariffs; this is the

first time a large scale dynamic ToU domestic tariff has been

tested in GB

• Three price bands:

• Two applications tested: Constraint Management and Supply

Following

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1,100 on

dToU

4,500 Control

Group

—High: 67.20 p/kWh

Default: 11.76 p/kWh

Low: 3.99 p/kWh

Fixed rate: 14.23 p/kWh








Low Carbon London

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• The results demonstrate a robust reduction in average load of

approximately 0.05 kW/household

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Dynamic Time of Use Tariffs Low Carbon London Results

Household performance rank against measured DSR, by price band

Rank of households

High price Default price Low price

Me

an

DS

R (

kW

)








Low Carbon London

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Dynamic Time of Use Tariffs How can DNOs deploy such a tariff?

We have looked at two scenarios:

• Voluntary

– Based on LCL uptake from LCL trial:

• Assumes 24% uptake

• Costs of £207/customer

• Mandatory

– Where the tariff is imposed (i.e. assuming 100% response)

– mandating suppliers to pass through a dToU price signal through DUoS

charges

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Dem

and

/Cap

acit

y (M

W) Forecast Load - Winter

Capacity withreinforcement - Winter

Post-interventioncapacity - Winter

Dynamic Time of Use Tariffs Whiston Road Case Study

• Whiston Road case study: 19,500 domestic customers

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Dynamic Time of Use Tariffs Whiston Road Case Study

• Whiston Road case study: 19,500 domestic customers

• Up to £25 contribution to costs could be funded by network benefits

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Voluntary Mandatory

Uptake 24% 100%

Deferral No deferral 1 year

Cost per household £207 based on trial costs Viable only if <£25


• A dToU price signal could be used to defer reinforcement spend at

some substations

• The value of dToU may triple if the average response improved

• High costs and low benefits mean that voluntary uptake of dToU

tariffs is unlikely to be of value to the DNO

• The benefits of applying dToU to manage outages are outweighed

by the costs

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£k (real 2012/13) NPV Totex impact

ED1

Totex impact

ED2

Reinforcement deferral

Whiston Road case study 333 1,059 (1,074)

Dynamic Time of Use Tariffs Cost Benefit Analysis


£0

£100,000

£200,000

£300,000

£400,000

£500,000

0% 1% 2% 3% 4%

NP

V

Unconstrained ToU as proportion of site capacity

0 year deferral

1 year deferral

2 year deferral

3 year deferral

• The benefit available from a dToU price response will be higher

where there is a higher domestic consumer population signed up

• Before considering implementation costs, £2.13m of benefits could

be available to the DNO through deferring reinforcement

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Dynamic Time of Use Tariffs Extrapolative Analysis

Increasing ToU

response

availability as

domestic load

increases allows

for greater

deferral and value

for the DNO








Low Carbon London

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• Highly engaged households (low rank index) tend to decrease their

consumption in response to high price signals and increase in response to low

price signals

• Customers appear to be keen to participate in Time of Use tariffs

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Dynamic Time of Use Tariffs Low Carbon London Results

Appliances for which households reported flexibility in

avoiding high prices on the tariff








Low Carbon London

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Time of Use tariffs Lessons Learned

• The trial results suggest that on average dToU customers provided a

response of c. 50 W, and that the best responders provided a

response of three times this size

• Customers understand and engage with Time of use tariffs

• However, for DNOs, the use of dToU tariffs to realise network

benefits is also likely to be less cost-effective than using I&C

Demand Side Response

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Network benefits of supplier led tariffs

• There is potential for peak load to be reduced by static ToU tariffs at

many substations in the sample

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

GSPSuper-urban Urban Sub-urban

Sampled substations 0800-2000h 1600-2200h

Substation peak reduction (%) if peak is shifted outside of targeted time slice


Dynamic Time of Use Tariffs When would a dToU tariff work for a DNO?

In future, the business case for DNO applications of dynamic ToU tariffs

might be revisited, if at least some of the following criteria were met:

• Uptake of dToU tariffs is close to 100%

• Regulation allows for cross-supplier coordination of DNO ToU price events

• In-home automation leads to higher levels of response

• Other stakeholders (e.g. the SO) are also able to apply ToU price signals

through the tariff

• Suppliers already have dToU-ready billing systems in place

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Trial outcomes of Low Carbon London

We have analysed driving

and charging behaviour

for 72 residential and 54

commercial charging

points

We have end to end

network monitoring of 3

Engineering

Instrumentation Zones

by monitoring 106 LV pot

end locations

Winter I&C DSR trial

completed: 130 MWh

contracted - 120 unique

events (119 MWh from

generation / 11MWh from

demand turn-down.

Residential dynamic

time of use trial

completed in February:

Over 1,100 people on the

‘dToU’ trial with a further

4,900 control group.

We secured £420,000 of

external revenue by

licensing the programme’s

central trial database and

ANM systems for use on

another project

We created the biggest

smart meter dataset in

the UK: 5,510 EDFE +

10,000 British Gas smart

meters across London

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ukpowernetworks.co.uk/innovation

Thank you

low carbon london - ofgem...wholesale price (£/mwh) • supplier needs and dno needs are unlikely...

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