ma monthly gdp index

8/14/2019 MA Monthly GDP Index

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01/15/10 Phone: 314-721-4747 Fax: 314-721-6383

Dec.08 Jan.09 Feb.09 Mar.09 Apr.09 May.09 Jun.09 Jul.09 Aug.09 Sep.09 Oct.09 Nov.09

Monthly GDP Index 12,981 12,893 12,948 12,939 12,900 12,915 12,894 12,940 12,995 12,984 13,149 13,178

Percent change -2.0 -0.7 0.4 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.4 0.4 -0.1 1.3 0.2

Annualized % ch -21.4 -7.8 5.3 -0.9 -3.6 1.5 -2.0 4.4 5.1 -1.0 16.4 2.6

Contributions to Annualized %ch (approx) Monthly GDP Index: November 2009

Sep.09 Oct.09 Nov.09

Monthly GDP -1.0 16.4 2.6

Final Sales -8.8 5.9 2.1

Domestic -5.3 2.7 4.3

PCE -6.3 3.2 2.6

Capital goods 1.2 -0.4 1.1

Construction -0.2 -0.6 0.4

Other -0.1 0.5 0.2

Net Exports -3.5 3.1 -2.2

Nonfarm CIPI 7.7 8.6 -0.3 Monthly GDP Index: Short View

Not Covered 0.1 0.8 0.8

Contributions to Annualized %ch (approx)

Monthly GDP Index: Long View

Technical Note

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

Billions of chain-type (2005) dollars

O

November

Monthly GDP rose 0.2% in November following a sharp, 1.3% increase inOctober. Monthly GDP rose at an average annual rate of 5% over thesecond half of 2009 (through November), following a roughly flat trendover the first half of the year. The increase in monthly GDP in Novemberreflected gains in PCE and other components of domestic final salespartially offset by a decline in net exports. Inventory investment wasroughly unchanged. The level of monthly GDP averaged over Octoberand November was 6.0% above the third-quarter average at an annualrate. Our latest estimate of 5.6% GDP growth in the fourth quarterassumes a 0.4% decline of monthly GDP in December.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000


Copyright 2010 Macroeconomic Advisers, LLCSM The information provided herein is based upon sources believed by Macroeconomic Advisers, LLCSM,to be reliable. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLCSM, cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. Thisreport does not purport to disclose any risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice with regard to any

Macroeconomic Advisers index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistentwith real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the NIPAs. The consistency is derived from two sources. First, MGDP is calculated usingmuch of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive atMGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in theunderlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12Domestic Final Sales

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12 Net Exports

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12 Nonfarm Change in Private Inventories (CIPI)

12,700

12,800

12,900

13,000

13,100

13,200

13,300

13,400

13,500

13,600

Dec.06 Jun.07 Dec.07 Jun.08 Dec.08 Jun.09


O

November

Monthly GDP rose 0.2% in November following a sharp, 1.3% increase inOctober. Monthly GDP rose at an average annual rate of 5% over thesecond half of 2009 (through November), following a roughly flat trendover the first half of the year. The increase in monthly GDP in Novemberreflected gains in PCE and other components of domestic final salespartially offset by a decline in net exports. Inventory investment wasroughly unchanged. The level of monthly GDP averaged over Octoberand November was 6.0% above the third-quarter average at an annualrate. Our latest estimate of 5.6% GDP growth in the fourth quarterassumes a 0.4% decline of monthly GDP in December.

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

14,000

Dec.01 Dec.02 Dec.03 Dec.04 Dec.05 Dec.06 Dec.07 Dec.08


-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

Dec.08 Mar.09 Jun.09 Sep.09

Domestic Final Sales

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12


Net Exports

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12


Nonfarm Change in Private Inventories (CIPI)


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Monthly Nominal

GDP Index

Monthly Real

GDP Index

1992 - Jan 6137.265

1992 - Feb 6189.499

1992 - Mar 6245.337

1992 - Apr 6270.453 8217.2721992 - May 6250.093 8187.538

1992 - Jun 6365.054 8328.474

1992 - Jul 6384.058 8334.026

1992 - Aug 6379.873 8315.944

1992 - Sep 6405.169 8338.611

1992 - Oct 6452.466 8382.571

1992 - Nov 6483.005 8404.166

1992 - Dec 6545.329 8464.642

1993 - Jan 6530.809 8421.711

1993 - Feb 6548.933 8441.047

1993 - Mar 6553.759 8435.087

1993 - Apr 6586.972 8457.7491993 - May 6629.771 8491.986

1993 - Jun 6651.357 8509.786

1993 - Jul 6644.310 8487.783

1993 - Aug 6680.859 8520.780

1993 - Sep 6739.731 8585.029

1993 - Oct 6748.071 8577.963

1993 - Nov 6833.048 8664.441

1993 - Dec 6860.281 8689.255

1994 - Jan 6871.789 8692.126

1994 - Feb 6928.891 8741.858

1994 - Mar 6948.220 8749.993

1994 - Apr 6983.616 8783.772

1994 - May 7091.915 8901.2261994 - Jun 7057.369 8857.217

1994 - Jul 7101.781 8882.686

1994 - Aug 7156.945 8937.708

1994 - Sep 7136.674 8892.851

1994 - Oct 7224.862 8985.880

1994 - Nov 7230.478 8984.033

1994 - Dec 7289.259 9039.991

1995 - Jan 7330.165 9067.102

1995 - Feb 7273.955 8983.530

1995 - Mar 7318.981 9025.484

1995 - Apr 7316.191 9004.834

1995 - May 7338.186 9027.5381995 - Jun 7413.023 9102.133

1995 - Jul 7392.603 9059.585

1995 - Aug 7447.492 9114.460

1995 - Sep 7517.405 9188.447

1995 - Oct 7519.767 9161.318

1995 - Nov 7521.478 9160.789

1995 - Dec 7586.254 9231.317

1996 - Jan 7612.237 9228.415


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1996 - Feb 7622.590 9230.868

1996 - Mar 7679.774 9283.068

1996 - Apr 7795.711 9417.270

1996 - May 7779.019 9379.630

1996 - Jun 7825.269 9425.146

1996 - Jul 7860.898 9461.192

1996 - Aug 7885.206 9479.1501996 - Sep 7931.995 9526.891

1996 - Oct 8012.449 9598.369

1996 - Nov 8041.620 9610.267

1996 - Dec 8014.931 9569.248

1997 - Jan 8087.209 9631.527

1997 - Feb 8162.434 9695.779

1997 - Mar 8161.356 9671.563

1997 - Apr 8270.571 9800.588

1997 - May 8232.998 9764.424

1997 - Jun 8326.831 9864.024

1997 - Jul 8375.184 9909.782

1997 - Aug 8396.617 9918.6011997 - Sep 8457.899 9970.022

1997 - Oct 8491.160 9999.041

1997 - Nov 8474.921 9971.880

1997 - Dec 8551.019 10056.097

1998 - Jan 8504.103 9994.879

1998 - Feb 8635.308 10144.519

1998 - Mar 8662.389 10171.187

1998 - Apr 8652.939 10152.487

1998 - May 8676.063 10164.351

1998 - Jun 8766.798 10266.253

1998 - Jul 8769.729 10245.184

1998 - Aug 8826.215 10296.590

1998 - Sep 8945.656 10444.824

1998 - Oct 8996.496 10488.196

1998 - Nov 9042.166 10527.272

1998 - Dec 9043.838 10507.471

1999 - Jan 9087.867 10534.224

1999 - Feb 9151.546 10607.876

1999 - Mar 9206.388 10661.509

1999 - Apr 9220.716 10650.675

1999 - May 9262.178 10700.194

1999 - Jun 9274.906 10701.123

1999 - Jul 9378.006 10802.330

1999 - Aug 9383.289 10797.708

1999 - Sep 9454.005 10859.6791999 - Oct 9524.447 10927.792

1999 - Nov 9610.130 11018.338

1999 - Dec 9688.523 11096.734

2000 - Jan 9636.143 10984.966

2000 - Feb 9702.859 11038.791

2000 - Mar 9789.498 11105.212

2000 - Apr 9919.095 11241.125

2000 - May 9937.704 11250.635


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2000 - Jun 9990.501 11283.574

2000 - Jul 9935.206 11194.881

2000 - Aug 10045.521 11310.116

2000 - Sep 10071.773 11298.382

2000 - Oct 10132.884 11350.405

2000 - Nov 10140.731 11345.822

2000 - Dec 10115.785 11307.0652001 - Jan 10168.328 11323.654

2001 - Feb 10151.761 11283.282

2001 - Mar 10175.211 11284.533

2001 - Apr 10259.321 11348.049

2001 - May 10344.011 11420.195

2001 - Jun 10300.568 11345.531

2001 - Jul 10286.508 11312.045

2001 - Aug 10400.199 11432.657

2001 - Sep 10228.893 11275.457

2001 - Oct 10348.016 11356.778

2001 - Nov 10299.163 11297.774

2001 - Dec 10472.121 11485.9622002 - Jan 10500.457 11498.167

2002 - Feb 10451.079 11425.814

2002 - Mar 10544.564 11509.852

2002 - Apr 10575.648 11522.521

2002 - May 10584.624 11524.123

2002 - Jun 10645.428 11569.940

2002 - Jul 10718.013 11630.794

2002 - Aug 10672.815 11567.874

2002 - Sep 10714.271 11590.617

2002 - Oct 10711.949 11566.599

2002 - Nov 10760.265 11588.905

2002 - Dec 10828.487 11640.790

2003 - Jan 10829.363 11608.630

2003 - Feb 10935.804 11692.804

2003 - Mar 10900.033 11636.146

2003 - Apr 10974.121 11709.798

2003 - May 10960.986 11689.493

2003 - Jun 11089.193 11817.149

2003 - Jul 11169.220 11880.148

2003 - Aug 11244.029 11924.013

2003 - Sep 11353.851 12002.682

2003 - Oct 11369.068 12012.531

2003 - Nov 11425.536 12053.998

2003 - Dec 11454.896 12062.154

2004 - Jan 11476.632 12033.6702004 - Feb 11614.836 12145.795

2004 - Mar 11700.132 12203.572

2004 - Apr 11714.220 12184.524

2004 - May 11836.999 12275.758

2004 - Jun 11783.981 12181.346

2004 - Jul 11932.435 12290.451

2004 - Aug 11948.622 12311.650

2004 - Sep 11970.442 12308.542


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2004 - Oct 12105.551 12415.472

2004 - Nov 12141.005 12403.128

2004 - Dec 12188.144 12412.418

2005 - Jan 12361.115 12541.471

2005 - Feb 12350.509 12504.554

2005 - Mar 12426.875 12556.465

2005 - Apr 12472.105 12570.9212005 - May 12471.434 12541.759

2005 - Jun 12606.860 12649.873

2005 - Jul 12673.357 12661.316

2005 - Aug 12748.418 12700.110

2005 - Sep 12803.026 12688.074

2005 - Oct 12848.747 12708.570

2005 - Nov 12878.144 12713.604

2005 - Dec 13019.909 12823.783

2006 - Jan 13110.979 12881.342

2006 - Feb 13128.049 12867.317

2006 - Mar 13311.472 12998.697

2006 - Apr 13289.198 12929.8882006 - May 13362.830 12984.517

2006 - Jun 13391.373 12972.800

2006 - Jul 13395.281 12945.122

2006 - Aug 13452.894 12957.124

2006 - Sep 13510.526 12995.323

2006 - Oct 13542.541 13016.613

2006 - Nov 13642.915 13093.826

2006 - Dec 13649.044 13071.565

2007 - Jan 13706.509 13063.181

2007 - Feb 13857.715 13154.664

2007 - Mar 13822.576 13081.879

2007 - Apr 13955.519 13183.475

2007 - May 14006.270 13213.437

2007 - Jun 14029.812 13215.080

2007 - Jul 14089.836 13264.354

2007 - Aug 14158.664 13311.919

2007 - Sep 14291.200 13387.112

2007 - Oct 14261.264 13343.324

2007 - Nov 14355.586 13403.656

2007 - Dec 14396.849 13426.696

2008 - Jan 14377.392 13401.907

2008 - Feb 14352.438 13344.856

2008 - Mar 14391.871 13353.747

2008 - Apr 14438.087 13369.050

2008 - May 14437.278 13368.3582008 - Jun 14618.035 13507.522

2008 - Jul 14611.993 13406.551

2008 - Aug 14526.617 13325.829

2008 - Sep 14501.490 13241.107

2008 - Oct 14433.308 13201.132

2008 - Nov 14451.352 13244.504

2008 - Dec 14157.240 12981.014

2009 - Jan 14137.576 12893.177


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2009 - Feb 14217.456 12948.308

2009 - Mar 14178.967 12938.729

2009 - Apr 14142.839 12899.535

2009 - May 14149.972 12915.427

2009 - Jun 14160.789 12893.676

2009 - Jul 14193.913 12940.415

2009 - Aug 14277.991 12994.6582009 - Sep 14250.068 12984.160

2009 - Oct 14437.123 13149.067

2009 - Nov 14475.785 13177.500

ma monthly gdp index

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