maine workforce trends...more recently, job growth has been slower than the nation in the recovery...
TRANSCRIPT
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Maine Workforce Trends
Veteran’s Conference Point Lookout, Northport
September 24, 2015
Glenn Mills
Chief Economist Center for Workforce Research
Maine Dept. of Labor www.maine.gov/labor/cwri
[email protected] 207-621-5192
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Maine has had no real GDP growth in the last decade
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
225%
250%
19
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Ind
ex o
f G
DP
in 2
01
3 $
(1
97
5 =
10
0)
United States
Maine
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More recently, job growth has been slower than the nation in the recovery from the 2008-09. Maine still has fewer jobs
than before the recession.
92%
94%
96%
98%
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Maine U.S.
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This the slowest recovery since the 1930s depression
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Maine’s labor force participation rate is at a 29 year low
Labor force participation rate is the share of the population age 16+ working or actively seeking work.
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On the other hand, the unemployment rate is lower than the U.S. average
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And the share of employed population is higher and has increased faster than the nation in the last five years
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How can we have slower job and GDP growth and declining labor force participation, but a better unemployment rate and faster rising, higher share of employed population than the nation? Underlying these trends is different population dynamics and age structure
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After consistently rising for generations, the population in Maine has been virtually unchanged the last six years…
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This is because the number of births per year is way down and the number of deaths is rising. We no longer have
natural population growth.
8,000
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16,000
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20,000
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24,0001
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Bir
ths
& D
eath
s
Births
Deaths
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And net-migration is down to near zero per year
-4,000
0
4,000
8,000
12,0001
97
0
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
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Net
Ch
ange
in M
igra
tio
n f
rom
Pri
or
Year
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Plunging births in the 1990s caused the median age in Maine to surge from close to the U.S. average 25 year ago to the highest in the nation…with NH & VT right behind us.
25
30
35
40
45
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014
Med
ian
Age
MaineNew HampshireVermontFloridaUnited States
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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Birth rates are down throughout the nation, but much more in Maine and northeastern states than other regions... Why?
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We now have a very advanced age structure with a high share of population in their 60s, soon to exit the workforce,
and the low share of young people to replace them
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Workforce Outlook
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Through 2022, the total population is not expected to change, but the number of seniors is expected to rise significantly
while the prime working-age population declines
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Pro
ject
ed N
et P
op
ula
tio
n C
han
ge, 2
01
2 t
o 2
02
2
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This is important because labor force participation differs by age. The 25 to 54 age group that has the highest
attachment to the workforce is declining.
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
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16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
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Lab
or
Forc
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ion
Rat
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Pro
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2
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As a result, for the first time we forecast that the size of the labor force will decline through 2022
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The labor force peaked in the middle of 2013
475,000
525,000
575,000
625,000
675,000
725,000
Jan
-78
Jan
-80
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-82
Jan
-84
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Civ
ilian
Lab
or
Forc
e
Baby boomers beginning to exit workforce
Baby boomers entering workforce
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75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
225%
250%
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
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19
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05
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11
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13
Ind
ex o
f G
DP
in 2
01
3 $
(1
97
5 =
10
0)
United States
Maine
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Aging is constraining our growth potential for jobs, GDP, and total income as well. The tightening labor market will create a more competitive landscape for employers to attract staff. This should lead to rising wages – and a very favorable situation for young people.
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Industry Job Trends & Outlook
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Employment has long been shifting from businesses that produce goods to those that provide services
44% 56%
1950
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
32%
68%
1975
18%
82%
2000
13%
87%
2022, projected
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1953 1983 2013
Total 276 425 602
Manufacturing 115 109 50
Manufacturing Share of Jobs 42% 26% 8%
Lumber 20 13 8
Paper 18 18 7
Textiles 24 7 2
Leather 20 20 2
4 Heritage Mfg Industries 82 59 18
Heritage Share of Jobs 30% 14% 3%
Healthcare ? 35 101
Healthcare Share of Jobs ? 8% 17%
Jobs (in thousands)
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Growth is primarily expected in healthcare, professional services, and hospitality, offset by declines in manufacturing and government.
Little net job change is expected in most other sectors.
-4,400
-2,900
-800
-200
0
200
200
300
300
500
500
1,200
2,400
3,500
13,100
Manufacturing
Government
Information
Utilities
Natural Resources & Mining
Financial Activities
Other Services
Transportation & Warehousing
Wholesale Trade
Educational services
Construction
Retail Trade
Leisure & Hospitality
Professional & Business Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Projected change in jobs by sector, 2012-2022
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Occupational Job Trends & Outlook
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The occupational structure of employment has shifted away from blue-collar jobs
Blue collar
Mgmt, pro/tech
Office, sales, service
1950 2012
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Skill Demands are Changing
• High Skill Occupations – Functions require analytical ability, critical thinking, problem solving, reasoning, and creativity. Most require post-secondary education.
• Middle Skill Occupations – Routine and repetitive tasks that tend to be procedural. Often require on the job or other forms of training.
• Low Skill Occupations – Physical work that cannot be (or has not yet been) automated. Limited educational requirements.
Automation
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Growth is expected to continue to be concentrated in occupations that require post-secondary education
that pay well and in low-skill, low-paying occupations
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The work attributes valued in growing occupations are very different from those in declining occupations
Examples of knowledge, skill, and ability requirements: Growing Occupations
Critical thinking, problem solving, decision making, mathematics, reading comprehension, deductive reasoning, processing information, analyzing data
Declining Occupations
Machinery operation, equipment inspection, tool selection, physical strength, following instructions, manual dexterity, clerical functions
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Veterans
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51% 52% 51%
53%
49%
68% 68% 68% 68% 67%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Veterans Nonveterans
Labor force participation of Veterans is lower than for non-Veterans
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Though participation of Vets is higher in most age groups. The average is lower because a much larger
share of Vets are retirement age.
85% 84%
60%
19%
79% 82%
68%
17%
18-34 35-54 55-64 65+
Veterans Nonveterans
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Unemployment rates continue to trend lower for Vets and non-Vets. Estimates for Vets are based on small
data samples, so there is more variability.
8.7%
7.5%
5.7%
6.6%
5.0%
7.9% 7.7% 7.5%
6.4%
5.5%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Veteran Nonveteran