mainstreet - ndp leadership

8/18/2019 Mainstreet - NDP Leadership

1/18

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 5,012 Canadians by Smart IVR™ from April 14-15, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones urveyed. Margin of error: +/- 1.38%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Atlantic (ATL): +/-4.2%; Quebec: +/-3.29%; Ontario: +/-3

Prairies: +/-3.75%; Alberta: +/-3.16%; British Columbia: +/-3.37%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender basehe 2011 Canadian Census.

METHODOLOGY

NDP LEADERSHIP


2/18

CULLEN, ‘SOMEONE ELSE’ LEAD NDP LEADERSHIP RACE

April 20, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the Liberal party continuingdominate the national landscape. With the NDP beginning their search for a new leader, Mainstreet po

NDP voters and among them Nathan Cullen leads a potential race with 17% - tied with ‘someone else’. Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.38%, 19 times out of 20.

The Liberals and Justin Trudeau continue to dominate with 48% of decided and leaning voters followedhe Rona Ambrose led Conservatives at 30%. Tom Mulcair and the NDP continue to plumb new depthust 14%, with the Greens at 5% and BQ at 3%,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research.

It looks like there might be room for a dark horse in the upcoming NDP leadership as Nathan Cullen is or the lead at 17% with "someone else". With over 25% of identified NDP supporters undecided on w

hey might support in what is yet an unknown field, this could open the door for one or more unknocandidates to enter the contest. There are some regional strengths for both Jagmeet Singh in Ontario

Niki Ashton in the prairies.

Among NDP supporters, Rachel Notley has the highest favourability score with +60, followed in a dis

econd by Nathan Cullen at +28 and a strong third for Jagmeet Singh at +27. This could be a factor inupcoming leadership as Notley's influence in the party grows.”

The Leap Manifesto is a hot topic among respondents, with 53% saying they are following this very clo

and another 27% somewhat closely. This compared to just 16% combined who said they were not followt closely or not at all. Approval is split with a majority saying they approve (58%) vs 31% who disappro

The breakdown among support is interesting with strong approval (17%) and strong disapproval (20%). ssue will continue to dominate headlines and the coming leadership contest,” finished Maggi.

About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levelgovernment, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of puopinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in BrColumbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling

n several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the o

polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

-30-

Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - [email protected]

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protecteby copyright. The information and/or data may onlybe rebroadcast or republished with full and propercredit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.


3/18

If a Federal Election were held today, which parwould you support?

40

35

30

25

20

5

0

5

0 4 4 %

2 7 %

1 3 % 2

%

4 %

1 0 %

LPC CPC NDP GPCBQ UD


4/18

If a Federal Election were held today, which parwould you support?

Liberal

Conservative

NDP

Bloc Québécois

Green

Undecided

Sample

18-34

48%

21%

18%

2%

5%

7%

604

35-49

38%

30%

12%

3%

5%

12%

1,233

50-64

45%

29%

10%

2%

3%

10%

1,550

65+

42%

29%

11%

3%

2%

13%

1,625

Male

44%

28%

13%

2%

4%

9%

2,457

Fema

44%

26%

13%

3%

4%

12%

2,555

Liberal

Conservative

NDP

Bloc Québécois

Green

Undecided

Sample

BC

40%

22%

12%

N/A

13%

13%

889

AB

29%

48%

8%

N/A

2%

13%

888

Prairies

42%

35%

10%

N/A

3%

10%

680

ON

50%

26%

12%

N/A

2%

9%

1,110

QC

41%

20%

18%

10%

2%

9%

900

ATL

46%

28%

11%

N/A

4%

11%

535

Nat.

44%

27%

13%

2%

4%

10%

5,012


5/18

Decided and Leaning

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0 4 8 %

3 0 %

1 4 % 3

%

5 %

LPC CPC NDP GPCBQ


6/18

Decided and Leaning

Liberal

Conservative

NDP

Bloc Québécois

Green

Sample

18-34

52%

22%

19%

2%

5%

576

35-49

43%

34%

13%

3%

6%

1,152

50-64

50%

32%

11%

3%

4%

1,463

65+

47%

34%

12%

3%

3%

1,528

Male

47%

31%

14%

2%

5%

2,347

Fema

49%

29%

15%

3%

4%

2,373

Liberal

Conservative

NDP

Bloc Québécois

Green

Sample

BC

45%

25%

15%

N/A

15%

830

AB

35%

53%

9%

N/A

3%

831

Prairies

47%

38%

11%

N/A

3%

645

ON

55%

29%

13%

N/A

3%

1,059

QC

45%

21%

20%

12%

2%

847

ATL

51%

32%

12%

N/A

5%

508

Nat.

48%

30%

14%

3%

5%

4,720


7/18

And which party are youleaning towards voting for?

20%

12%

8%

1%

4%

53%

LPC CPC NDP GPCBQ UD


8/18

NDP LEADERSHIPSAMPLE: 598

MoE: +/- 4.01

4

0

6

2

A s h t o

n

B o u l e r i c

e

C u l l e

n

J u l i a

n

L e w

i s

S i n g

h

S o m e o n e E l s

e

U n d e c i d e

d

4 %

4 %

1 7 %

1 0 %

1 1 %

1 1 %

1 7 %

2 6 %


9/18

NDP LEADERSHIP

[NDP VOTERS ONLY]

Niki Ashton

Alexandre Boulerice

Nathan Cullen

Peter Julian

Avi Lewis

Jagmeet Singh

Someone else

Undecided

18-34

4%

4%

15%

12%

6%

10%

13%

37%

35-49

3%

3%

20%

10%

12%

11%

17%

23%

50-64

4%

4%

16%

8%

16%

15%

20%

19%

65+

5%

5%

20%

9%

14%

9%

23%

15%

Male

3%

5%

16%

11%

11%

12%

18%

24%

Fema

5%

3%

18%

9%

11%

10%

16%

28%

N. Ashton

A. Boulerice

N. Cullen

P. Julian

A. Lewis

J. Singh

Someone else

Undecided

BC

4%

1%

30%

26%

10%

8%

5%

16%

AB

5%

2%

19%

19%

5%

9%

16%

26%

Prairies

39%

3%

9%

9%

9%

6%

9%

15%

ON

2%

0%

16%

8%

8%

20%

16%

29%

QC

1%

10%

14%

5%

15%

5%

24%

26%

ATL

3%

3%

16%

11%

11%

5%

16%

35%

Nat.

4%

4%

17%

10%

11%

11%

17%

26%


10/18

Favourability Ratings

[NDP VOTERS ONLY]

Ashton

Boulerice

Cullen

Julian

Lewis

Singh

Cardy

Horgan

Notley

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 10

32% 11% 14% 43%

17% 11% 15% 57%

55% 27% 5% 13%

21% 9% 17% 53%

41% 27% 5% 27%

33% 6% 27% 34%

35% 11% 7% 47%

28% 22% 20% 30%

71% 11% 13% 5

Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar With


11/18

How closely have you been following the Leap

Manifesto? [NDP VOTERS ONLY]

53%

27%

11%

5%

4%

Very Closely Somewhat Closely Not Too Closely Not At All Closely Not Aw


12/18

How closely have you been following the LeapManifesto? [NDP VOTERS ONLY]

Very Closely

Somewhat Closely

Not Too Closely

Not At All Closely

Not Aware

18-34

46%

37%

10%

4%

3%

35-49

63%

13%

13%

7%

5%

50-64

55%

26%

10%

5%

4%

65+

53%

28%

10%

5%

5%

Male

52%

26%

13%

5%

4%

Fema

54%

28%

9%

5%

4%

Very

Somewhat

Not Too

Not At All

Not Aware

BC

52%

26%

13%

5%

4%

AB

63%

23%

7%

5%

2%

Prairies

45%

27%

15%

9%

3%

ON

54%

26%

12%

4%

4%

QC

52%

29%

10%

5%

4%

ATL

54%

27%

11%

3%

5%

Nat.

53%

27%

11%

5%

4%


13/18

And do you approve or disapprove of the LeaManifesto? [NDP VOTERS ONLY]

58%

31%

11%

Approve Disapprove Not Sure


14/18

And do you approve or disapprove of the LeaManifesto? [NDP VOTERS ONLY]

Strongly Approve

Somewhat Approve

Somewhat Disapprove

Strongly Disapprove

Not Sure

18-34

19%

40%

6%

23%

12%

35-49

19%

40%

6%

23%

11%

50-64

13%

45%

5%

28%

9%

65+

15%

41%

7%

27%

10%

Male

18%

44%

5%

20%

13%

Fema

16%

38%

7%

29%

9%

Str Approve

SW Approve

SW Disapprove

Str Disapprove

Not Sure

BC

17%

43%

3%

25%

13%

AB

7%

9%

12%

67%

5%

Prairies

15%

42%

9%

21%

12%

ON

20%

41%

5%

23%

11%

QC

17%

45%

7%

20%

11%

ATL

14%

43%

8%

22%

14%

Nat.

17%

41%

6%

25%

11%


15/18

If a Federal Election were held today, which party would you support?

Conservative Party led by Rona AmbroseNDP led by Tom Mulcair

Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauBloc Québécois led by Rheal Fortin

Green Party led by Elizabeth MayUndecided

And which party are you leaning towards voting for?

Conservative Party led by Rona AmbroseNDP led by Tom Mulcair

Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauBloc Québécois led by Rheal FortinGreen Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided

The NDP will be holding a leadership race to choose a new leader. Of the following candidates, whowould you vote for if you could to be the next NDP Leader?

Niki AshtonAlexandre BoulericeNathan Cullen

Peter JulianMegan Leslie

Avi LewisJagmeet Singh

Someone elseUndecided

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Niki Ashton?And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Alexandre Boulerice?

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Peter Julian?And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Megan Leslie?

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Avi Lewis?And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Jagmeet Singh?And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Nathan Cullen?

FavourableUnfavourable

Not Sure

Not Familiar with [Candidate Name]

SCRIPT


16/18

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Rachel Notley?And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Dominic Cardy?

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of John Horgan?

FavourableUnfavourable

Not SureNot Familiar with [Candidate Name]

How closely have you been following the Leap Manifesto?

Very closelySomewhat closely

Not too closelyNot at all closely

Not aware of the Leap Manifesto

And do you approve or disapprove of the Leap Manifesto?

Strongly approve

Somewhat approve

Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapproveNot sure

SCRIPT


17/18

ONLY WE

CALLED

THELIBERAL

MAJORITY

Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East

| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

“I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interviewwith a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Pub

Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a weekbefore we voted.

Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 20in defiance of the majority of the polls.

His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanatiofor how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running

political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015


18/18

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all thrlevels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadi

public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liber

government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet h

been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoelection. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal major

government in the 2015 federal election.

CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITE

mainstreetresearch.ca

TWITTER

@MainStResearch

FACEBOOK

fb.com/mainstresearch

mainstreet - ndp leadership

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