majerowicz

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Introduction to Project Scheduling

NASA PM Challenge 2011Long Beach CaliforniaFebruary 9-10, 2011

Walt Majerowicz, MBA, PMPASRC Aerospace Corporation

Used with permission

© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010

Purpose of Today’s Presentation

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The purpose to today’s session is to provide a basic overview of project scheduling.


Agenda

• NASA Project Scheduling Perspectives

• Project Scheduling Processes

• Additional Project Scheduling Resources

3


NASA Project Scheduling Perspectives

4


NASA Projects Are Large, Expensive and Complex

NASA spends approximately 85 percent of its budget on procurements, while other project work is performed “in-house” at NASA facilities

5


NASA Project Life Cycle Simplified

Key Decision Points

FORMULATION IMPLEMENTATION

Major Reviews

A C D E

Project

PhasesConceptStudies

Concept &TechnologyDevelopment

PreliminaryDesign & Tech. Comp.

FinalDesign & Fabrication

Sys. Assembly,Test, & Launch

CloseoutOps. &Sustainment

A B

B

C

F

D E FPre-A

Mission Concept Review

Systems Requirements Review

Mission Definition Review (or System Definition Review)

Critical Design Review

Systems Integration Review

Operational Readiness Review

Flight Readiness Review

Post Launch Assessment

ReviewDecommissioning

Review

Preliminary Design Review

6


NPR 7120.5 Project Schedule Requirements

Project Phase Schedule Requirement

Pre-Phase A Draft Management Baseline that includes “a schedule”

Phase A Preliminary Project Plan that includes the “schedule baseline” / Integrated Master Schedule

Phase B Approved Project Plan that includes schedule baseline / Integrated Master Schedule

Phase C/D - Maintain a schedule baseline based on an approved joint cost and schedule confidence level- Notice and recovery plan if C/D phase life cycle milestone is estimated to be delayed 6 months or more

Formulation / Implementation Schedule margin . . . based on assessments of risks

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SOURCE: NM 7120-81: NID for 7120.5D


Integrated Master Schedule

Integrated Master Schedule“An integrated set of schedule data that reflects the total project scope of work as discrete and measurable tasks/milestones that are time-phased through the use of task durations, interdependencies, and date constraints and is traceable to the WBS.”

SOURCE: NM 7120-81: NID for 7120.5D

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Project Scheduling Processes

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Project Scheduling Processes

Process Primary Output

Activity Definition Task listing of project work scope

Activity Sequencing Project logic / activity dependencies

Activity Duration Estimating Approximation of working time (e.g. days) to accomplish each activity

Schedule Margin Planning Funded schedule allowance to account for risk and uncertainty

Schedule Development Schedule baseline / Integrated Master Schedule

Schedule Status Accounting, Data Maintenance & Updating

Current schedule (actual progress + forecast to complete)

Schedule Analysis & Assessment Insight and understanding

Schedule Performance Reporting Results, metrics and trends

Schedule Control Revisions, replans/rebaselines, management decisions

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Activity Definition

Activity DescriptionKDP-C ApprovalSpacecraft Development (NASA In-House)Instrument A Development (Contractor)Instrument B Development (International Partner)A-B Compatibility Test (at Partner 1)System I&T (NASA In-House)Integrate Instrument AIntegrate Instrument BEnvironmental TestingLaunch Site OperationsGround System Development (NASA Center "B")Launch VehicleLaunch

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Activity Definition is the process of identifying the tasks which must be performed in order to produce the project’s deliverables and meet it’s objectives.


Activity Sequencing

Instrument A Deve lopment (Contractor)

Start: 2/10/11 ID: 3

Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d

Res:

Instrument B Deve lopment (Inte rnational Partner)

Start: 2/10/11 ID: 4


Res:

System I&T (NASA In-House )

Start: 2/10/11 ID: 6


Comp: 0%

Schedule Margin

Start: 2/10/11 ID: 7


Res:

Integrate Instrument A

Start: 2/10/11 ID: 8


Res:

Launch Vehicle

Start: 2/10/11 ID: 14


Res:

Spacecraft Deve lopment (NASA In-House)

Start: 2/10/11 ID: 2


Res:

A-B Compatibility Test (at Partner 1)

Start: 2/10/11 ID: 5


Res:

KDP-C Approval

Start: 2/10/11 ID: 1


Res:

Activity Sequencing is the process of characterizing project logic by identifying and documenting the interdependencies between project activities

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Activity Duration Estimating

Activity Description Duration EstimateKDP-C Approval 0 dSpacecraft Development (NASA In-House) 600 dInstrument A Development (Contractor) 450 dInstrument B Development (International Partner) 400 d

A-B Compatibility Test (at Partner 1) 60 d

System I&T (NASA In-House) 930 d

Integrate Instrument A 25 d

Integrate Instrument B 15 d

Environmental Testing 100 d

Launch Site Operations 60 dGround System Development (NASA Center "B") 500 d

Launch Vehicle 764 d

Launch 0 d

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Activity Duration Estimating is the process of determining the realistic number of work periods required to accomplish each activity.


Activity Duration Estimating Methods

Estimating Method Approach Reliability

Expert Judgment Estimate is based on the expertise, knowledge or experience of someone familiar with the activity

Moderate

Analogous Actual duration from a similar activity used as the basis for the new activity duration

Moderate

Bottoms-Up / Grassroots Decomposition of activities into lower level tasks which are estimated and then aggregated at higher levels

High

Parametric Duration derived from a arithmetical relationship among variables Moderate-to-High

Brainstorming Project team guesses durations based on a combination of factors (gut feel, prior experience, historic actuals)

Low

Expected Value / 3-Point

Average of activity's most likely, optimistic and pessimistic duration estimates

High

Standards Application Well-established, historically validated durations for routine or procedurally-based activities or operations

High

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Schedule Margin Planning

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Planning Method Approach

Applied Percentage % of activity or overall project duration deducted OR added and established as

the schedule reserve

Fixed Standard Rule-of-thumb based on historic norms (e.g. one month of reserve for each year

between time-now and launch readiness date)

Risk-Based Expected Value Calculation of expected value of project risks (probability x impact)

3-Point Duration Estimate Derivation

Evaluation of tradeoffs among most likely, optimistic, pessimistic and expected value activity durations

Decision Tree Analysis Determine reserve based on calculation of expected value of decision

alternatives

Monte Carlo Analysis Difference between project completion date from the Critical Path Method

calculation and the completion date associated with the desired confidence level based on the Monte Carlo analysis

Expert Judgment Recommendation from those with expertise or experience appropriate for the

application, discipline or effort

Schedule Margin Planning Methods

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Schedule Development

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ID Task Name Duration FreeSlack

TotalSlack

1 KDP-C Approval 0 d 0 d 0 d

2 Spacecraft Development (NASAIn-House)

600 d 0 d 0 d

3 Instrument A Development(Contractor)

450 d 0 d 180 d

4 Instrument B Development(International Partner)

400 d 50 d 230 d

5 A-B Compatibility Test (at Partner 1) 60 d 180 d 180 d

6 System I&T (NASA In-House) 930 d 0 d 0 d

7 Schedule Margin 90 d 0 d 0 d

8 Integrate Instrument A 25 d 0 d 0 d

9 Integrate Instrument B 15 d 0 d 0 d

10 Environmental Testing 100 d 0 d 0 d


12 Launch Site Operations 60 d 0 d 0 d

13 Ground System Development(NASA Center "B")

500 d 230 d 230 d

14 Launch Vehicle 764 d 106 d 106 d

15 Launch 0 d 0 d 0 d

2/10

9/3

4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 12010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Schedule Development is the process of determining the planned start and finish dates for the project’s activities in order to establish the baseline schedule


Schedule Status Accounting, DataMaintenance & Updating

• Factors to consider for activities include– Status date– Actual start date– Actual finish date– Remaining duration– Physical percentage complete– Estimated completion date of

activities underway– Actual duration– Earned Value– Resource updates– Forecast start date, finish date or

planned duration for activities that have not started

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What Has Changed Since We Baselined the Schedule?

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TotalSlack



516 d 0 d 84 d


711 d 0 d -81 d


400 d 230 d 230 d

5 A-B Compatibility Test (at Partner 1) 60 d 0 d -81 d

6 System I&T (NASA In-House) 1011 d 0 d -81 d


8 Integrate Instrument A 25 d 0 d -81 d

9 Integrate Instrument B 15 d 0 d -81 d

10 Environmental Testing 100 d 0 d -81 d

11 Schedule Margin 40 d 0 d -81 d

12 Launch Site Operations 60 d 0 d -81 d


500 d 230 d 230 d


15 Launch 0 d 0 d -81 d

2/10

9/3

3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 42010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Schedule Analysis and Assessment

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24 Aug 10 13 Sep 10 03 Oct 10

Distribution (start of interval)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

Hit

s

0% 24 Aug 10

5% 31 Aug 10

10% 03 Sep 10

15% 04 Sep 10

20% 06 Sep 10

25% 08 Sep 10

30% 09 Sep 10

35% 11 Sep 10

40% 12 Sep 10

45% 14 Sep 10

50% 15 Sep 10

55% 17 Sep 10

60% 18 Sep 10

65% 19 Sep 10

70% 20 Sep 10

75% 22 Sep 10

80% 24 Sep 10

85% 26 Sep 10

90% 28 Sep 10

95% 01 Oct 10

100% 18 Oct 10

Cu

mu

lati

ve F

req

uen

cy

0 - Total Project : Finish Date SCHEDULE ASSESSMENT CHECKLIST

Yes No Criterion Description

1. ___ ___ Does the IMS reflect the total scope of work?

2. ___ ___ Is the correct WBS element identified for each task and milestone in the IMS?

3. ___ ___ Is the IMS used by all levels of management for project implementation and control?

4. ___ ___ Do all tasks/milestones have interdependencies identified to reflect a credible logical sequence?

5. ___ ___ Are task durations reasonable, measureable, and at appropriate level of detail for effective management?

6. ___ ___ Does the IMS include all contract and/or designated management control milestones?

7. ___ ___ Does IMS reflect accurate current status & credible start/finish forecasts for all to-go tasks and milestones?

8. ___ ___ Has the IMS been resource loaded and are assigned resources reasonable and available?

9. ___ ___ Is the critical path identifiable and determined by the calculated IMS logic network?

10. ___ ___ Is the critical path credible?

11. ___ ___ Has a Schedule Risk Assessment (SRA) been conducted on the IMS within the last three months?

12. ___ ___ Has adequate schedule margin been included and clearly defined within the IMS?

13. ___ ___ Has the IMS content been baselined and is it adequately controlled?

14. ___ ___ Is there an excessive & invalid use of task constraints and relationship leads/lags?

15. ___ ___ Are right task & resource calendars used in the IMS?

SCHEDULE ASSESSMENT CHECKLIST

Yes No Criterion Description

1. ___ ___ Does the IMS reflect the total scope of work?

2. ___ ___ Is the correct WBS element identified for each task and milestone in the IMS?

3. ___ ___ Is the IMS used by all levels of management for project implementation and control?

4. ___ ___ Do all tasks/milestones have interdependencies identified to reflect a credible logical sequence?

5. ___ ___ Are task durations reasonable, measureable, and at appropriate level of detail for effective management?

6. ___ ___ Does the IMS include all contract and/or designated management control milestones?

7. ___ ___ Does IMS reflect accurate current status & credible start/finish forecasts for all to-go tasks and milestones?

8. ___ ___ Has the IMS been resource loaded and are assigned resources reasonable and available?

9. ___ ___ Is the critical path identifiable and determined by the calculated IMS logic network?

10. ___ ___ Is the critical path credible?

11. ___ ___ Has a Schedule Risk Assessment (SRA) been conducted on the IMS within the last three months?

12. ___ ___ Has adequate schedule margin been included and clearly defined within the IMS?

13. ___ ___ Has the IMS content been baselined and is it adequately controlled?

14. ___ ___ Is there an excessive & invalid use of task constraints and relationship leads/lags?

15. ___ ___ Are right task & resource calendars used in the IMS?

Source: NASA Schedule Management Handbook

NEWProject Name: Project XYZ 1.4 RContractor: ACME Engineering

File Type: MS Project

Schedule Status

Current Start (earliest activity Early Start date) 1/1/2005

Current Finish (latest activity Early Finish date) 3/16/2008

Approximate Remaining Work Days 722

Is schedule externally linked to other schedules? N

Status Date 6/15/2005

Task & Milestone Count (excl. Summary Tasks) Count % of Total

Total Tasks & Milestones 192

Completed Tasks & Milestones 13 7%

To Go Tasks & Milestones 179 93%

Logic (excl. Summary & Started/Completed Tasks)

Tasks & Milestones Without Predecessors 75 42% R

Tasks & Milestones Without Successors 73 41% R

Constraints (other than ASAP) and Deadlines 102 57% R

Summaries with Logic Ties ** 1 1% G

Tasks & Milestones Needing Updates 21 12% R

Actuals after Status Date 2 1% Y

Tasks marked as Milestones (have Duration > 0) 0 0% G

Additional Schedule Information

Tasks with No Finish Ties 20 11%

Recurring Tasks 0 0%

Tasks & Milestones with Estimated Durations 15 8%

Schedule traceable to WBS (Y/N) Yes

Realistic Critical Path(s) (Y/N) No

Schedule Baselined (Y/N) No

Resource Loaded (Y/N) No

Tasks & Milestones with 10 days or less TF 1 1% Tasks with Total Float > 25% of Rem Dur 148 83%

Current

Overall Rating


Schedule Performance Reporting

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0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09

Cum

ulat

ive

Act

iviti

es

Month/Year

Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09

B/L Plan 105 141 197 258 325 416 274 431 515 601 682 758 881 975 1063 1133

Actuals 102 137 161 198 217 238 274 352 387

Late Finish 274 320 359 398 460 541 634 709 774 842

Spacecraft Cumulative Activties


TotalSlack



516 d 0 d 84 d


711 d 0 d -81 d


400 d 230 d 230 d

5 A-B Compatibility Test (at Partner 1) 60 d 0 d -81 d

6 System I&T (NASA In-House) 1011 d 0 d -81 d


8 Integrate Instrument A 25 d 0 d -81 d

9 Integrate Instrument B 15 d 0 d -81 d

10 Environmental Testing 100 d 0 d -81 d

11 Schedule Margin 40 d 0 d -81 d

12 Launch Site Operations 60 d 0 d -81 d


500 d 230 d 230 d


15 Launch 0 d 0 d -81 d

2/10

9/3

3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 42010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


ScheduleControl

ReplanningBaselineRevisions

WorkaroundPlanning

Schedule Control is the process of managing the schedule baseline and current IMS in a timely, disciplined manner in response to: a) new work scope b) the need for a new baseline schedule c) recovery from actual or potential schedule problems

New Scope New Baseline Recovery Plan

Schedule Control

Management Decision-Making

Schedule control includes taking the appropriate action to get things done and stay on track.

Action

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TotalSlack



600 d 0 d 0 d


450 d 0 d 180 d


400 d 50 d 230 d

5 A-B Compatibility Test (at Partner 1) 60 d 180 d 180 d

6 System I&T (NASA In-House) 930 d 0 d 0 d


8 Integrate Instrument A 25 d 0 d 0 d

9 Integrate Instrument B 15 d 0 d 0 d

10 Environmental Testing 100 d 0 d 0 d


12 Launch Site Operations 60 d 0 d 0 d


500 d 230 d 230 d


15 Launch 0 d 0 d 0 d

2/10

9/3

4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 12010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Let’s Recap Some Key Points From Today’s Session

Free Slack: amount of time an activity can be delayed before impacting the start

date of it’s successor

Total Slack: amount of time an activity can be

delayed before impacting the project ‘s completion

date

Schedule Margin: pre-planned

amount of funded schedule reserve to protect against

risks/problems

Critical Path: path through network with

least amount of total slack

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Additional Project Scheduling Resources

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NASA Schedule Management Handbook

Chapters1. Introduction2. Schedule Management Overview3. Schedule Management Tool

Considerations4. Pre-schedule Development5. Integrated Master Schedule

Development6. Status Updates & Schedule

Maintenance7. Schedule Assessments and

Analysis8. Schedule Control9. Schedule Reporting10.Schedule Data Archival & Lessons

Learned

Download the NASA Schedule Management Handbook at: http://evm.nasa.gov/handbooks.html

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NASA Planning & Scheduling Community of Practice

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NASA Planning & Scheduling Community of Practice

• Instructions for joining the P&S CoP are at:– http://pmknowledge.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/PSCoP_Instructions.pdf

• For P&S CoP technical assistance contact:– Jennifer Poston– [email protected]– (301) 286-7492

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http://pmknowledge.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/PSCoP_Instructions.pdf

mailto:[email protected]


Schedule Training from the NASA Academy ofProgram, Project and Engineering Leadership

• Understanding Project Scheduling (1 day)

• Beyond Scheduling Basics: Analysis, Control & Margin Planning (1 day)

• Advanced Earned Value Management Topics: Recognizing EVM and Scheduling Gaming, Abuse and Data Manipulation (1 day)

• Assessing Project Performance (2 days)

• Training schedule http://pmknowledge.gsfc.nasa.gov/scheduletrain.htm

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http://pmknowledge.gsfc.nasa.gov/scheduletrain.htm


Thank you !

Walt Majerowicz, MBA, PMPManagement Consultant

ASRC Aerospace [email protected]

[email protected] 301-286-5622

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