Make in India and Future of Renewable Energy

A Paper presented at BICON 2015 in with Theme Impact of 'Make in India' Efforts on Management of Business at Biyani Group of College, JaipurBy:Dr Manoj Kumar BhambuAssociate Professor GCCBA-ChandigarhMake in India and Future of Renewable Energy

Make in India and Future of Renewable EnergyIndia has become the third largest economy of the world on the basis of purchasing power parity (The World Bank, 2015).India expected to continue its rapid stride in urbanization and economic development during the next 3-4 decades. "China will overtake theUSto become the world's largest economy by 2020, which in turn will be overtaken by India in 2050," according to Wealth Report 2012 by Knight Frank & Citi Private Bank (Knight Frank Research, 2012). India needs to beat the growth rate of USA and China by at least 2-3 percentage point consistently to achieve the target to become the largest economy of the world. This will require huge efforts on the part of government, industries and public at large.

Table 1: Top 20 Economies of World as on July 2015RankingEconomyMillions of International Dollars1China 18,030,932 2United States 17,419,000 3India 7,393,076 4Japan 4,630,941 5Russian Federation 3,745,157 6Germany 3,689,840 7Brazil 3,263,866 8Indonesia 2,676,109 9France 2,571,970 10United Kingdom 2,524,728 11Italy 2,131,920 12Mexico 2,125,257 13Korea, Rep. 1,732,352 14Saudi Arabia 1,603,764 15Canada 1,566,925 Source: http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/GDP-PPP-based-table

Objectives of the StudyThe paper tries to address following objectives the country need to address for ensuring success of Make in India programme in Renewable energy sector:To know the current position and future trend of electricity production in India and some selected countries of the world.To know the present position and future trends of Indian electricity production mix.To know the current position and future trend of CO2 emission in India and some selected countries of the world.To suggest measure for clean and green electricity for attaining zero defect and zero effect in power sector of the country.

Table 2: Total Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt-hours)CountryYear200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012China142715851810210423702715308732813508405245474768United States373738583883397140554065415741193950412541004048India55757761464567672777679685691210061052Russia8418448668848999409589839389819971012Japan9729909821010102010391078101398610441032966Canada572584572582606593613615595586627616Germany550550572579577594598595557591572585Brazil323340359381396412437454459507530538France520526534541545543539544507540532533Korea, South291310324346364379402419426468490500UK360362373369371368368360349355341336Italy255260265277278289289295273283286281Spain221226244259269280286296278285278280Mexico201205203221231237244249248257280279Saudi Arabia126133144150166171179192204226235255Source: http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=2&pid=2&aid=12&cid=regions&syid=2001&eyid=2012&unit=BKWH

Table 3: Per Capita Annual Electricity Consumption in Killowatt-HoursCountry200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012Canada168071696017191172351752716923176311751816080159651616815615USA130471329613307133891370513583136571366312914133941324012954S.Korea63116677698273977804805184778791890097441016210346S.Arabia603660446389616463816607674770737431802281618763Japan782379167815805182138247847480537808833778417752France734873027531766576567536752076507336773672177344Germany676369017010710971387212722971886817726471467270Russia 527453045478563457706099628664006095641064866617Spain543555775676589261116105605460265653570755995573UK614261436175613962716201610260165643570154735452Italy540655405653568857315833580457585368549455155398China107711951380158717842042233024582633294432983475Brazil175018081883195620162073216922332202238024382509Mexico172617351701179918531865189919081870191620922032India400417437459477519553574614657713760Source: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC

What is the Need?Per Capita use of electricity has increased from 400 KWH in 2001 to 760 KWH in 2012, it is very less in India as it has a vast population base of around 121 billion people. Though, CAGR of 6% in per capita use of electricity in India is highest among the top 15 electricity producing countries only after China with a CAGR of 11% during the period 2001-12. Even with a CAGR of 5% in per capita electricity consumption in India will increase to 4852 Kilowatt-Hours per annum by 2050.With its expected population base of 165 Crores the total requirement of annual electricity generation will be about 9160 Billion Kilowatt-hours.Keeping in view, the present Installed Capacity and total net electricity generation of 2012, India will need to have installed capacity of 1740 GW in 2050. This translates into 40 GW of capacity addition per annum throughout this period. During 2012-2015 total 72GW of capacity addition has been achieved that is a good sign but efforts have to be increased in the coming years. Make in India can help achieve this target not only in thermal power sector but also in renewable energy sector.

From Here to There

Why Renewables?Life-Cycle Tonnes CO2 e/GWH by Source of Electricity Generation TechnologyMeanLowHighLignite 1,0547901,372Coal8887561310Oil733547935Natural Gas499362891Solar PV8513731Biomass4510101Nuclear292130Hydroelectric262237Wind266124Source: http://www.world-nuclear.org/uploadedFiles/org/WNA/Publications/Working_Group_Reports/comparison_of_lifecycle.pdf

Wind is Blowing!!!Indias installed capacity at around 13 GW of Wind Power the worlds 5th largest Wind Energy Producer. However, India remains far behind China in terms of Wind Energy Growth. Last Year China installed nearly 13 GW of Wind Energy which is more than Indias total installed capacity of Wind Energy. (Shah, 2010). Make in India programme can give chance to Indian companies to match Chinese companies in volumes. Technologically our companies can do even better by investing in production of wind mills, bladeless wind mills, rooftop micro wind mills and offshore floating wind mills to install wind energy in large scale. Suzlon Energy is the only Indian company among the top 10 wind energy companies in the world but Make in India has potential to increase this number to 3-4 in coming decades. The new Berkeley Lab study has found the total techno-economic wind potential to range from 2,006 GW for 80-meter hub heights (an indication of how high the wind turbine stands above the ground) to 3,121 GW for 120-meter hub heights, an LBL news releasestates. (Shahan, 2012). Only 25% of potential realisation gives us an opportunity as big as double the present total installed capacity.

Sun is Shining!!! India is blessed with good solar insolation throughout the year in most of its parts. Regions receiving Global insolation of 5KWh/m2 per day and above can generate at least 77W/m2 (on actual onsite basis) at 16% efficiency level. Hence, even 0.1% of the land area of the identified solar hotspot (1897.55 Km2) could deliver nearly 146 GW of SPV based electricity (379 Billion units) considering 2600 hours of sunshine annually. This power capacity would enhance considerably with improvement in the efficiency of SPV technology (T.V.Ramachandra, 2011). Besides rooftop SPV both grid-connected and isolated have potential to generate 127 GW if only 10m2 SPV is installed on 50% of 330 million houses in India. Though, it will take time to have social acceptability yet we can save reduce GHG emission substantially. With such a tremendous scale of SPV installation the technology will become very cheap as we have no dearth of silicon in our country that is used in manufacturing of SPV cells.

Our Saagar-Manthan!!!Energy potential of our seas and oceans well exceeds our present energy needs. India has long coastline with estuaries and gulfs where tides are strong enough to move turbine for electric power generation. A variety of different technologies are currently under development throughout the world to harness this energy in all its forms including waves (40000 MW), tides (9000 MW) and thermal gradients (180000 MW). Development is currently limited but the sector has potential to grow.If 50% of this initial potential can be developed by 2050 it can contribute to the tune 114500 MW of electricity generation capacity.

People are Doing itMost of the developed economies are shifting from thermal to renewable electricity. As Germany, Europe's biggest economy, already gets 25% of its electricity from renewables, and is aiming for 80% by 2050. Wind power was Spain's top source of electricity in 2013, ahead of nuclear, coal & gas. (Murray, 2014).Full conversion of electricity and heat consumption to renewable energy by 2035 will take Denmark a crucial step closure to 100% renewable energy by 2050. (The Danish Government, 2011)Even, Philippines produce 29% of its electricity with renewables, targeting 40% by 2020.

What is in Store for UsEven India can target 70% of our energy coming from renewables by 2050. India is the Saudi Arabia of renewable energy sources and, if properly utilized, India can realize its place in the world as a great power, and adding but political will is required for the eventual shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy.-Jeremy Rifkin, an economist and activist, said in New Delhi in January 2012The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) has also recommended that the world needs a major shift in investments from fossil fuels to renewable energy in order to curb greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. (Goswami, 2014).Indian companies in the renewable sector should rise to the occasion like our IT companies and use Make in India a catalyst for high growth not only for themselves but also for the economy as a whole in general and electricity sector in particular.

THANKS