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Making better decisions for aquatic resources in the Anthropocene Adam Terando Mitch Eaton Dept. of Interior Southeast Climate Science Center

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Page 1: Making better decisions for aquatic resources in the ... Decis… · Making better decisions for aquatic resources in the Anthropocene Adam Terando ... Sea-level rise and water resource

Making better decisions for aquatic resources in the Anthropocene

Adam Terando

Mitch Eaton

Dept. of Interior Southeast Climate Science Center

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Department of Interior Climate Science Center Network

DOI Secretarial Order 3289: Producing actionable science that helps individuals and organizations understand and adapt to global change.

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Department of Interior Climate Science Center Network

SECSC vision for science that “adds up”

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Characterize and understand the effects of climate change on fish, wildlife, and habitat

Provide research-based information to support landscape scale adaptive management decisions

Actionable Science @ DOI SE Climate Science Ctr. Implementing a decision-oriented project portfolio

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Formal problem deconstruction

The Decision Analytic Approach

1. Problem Framing

• Decision maker(s) & stakeholders• Values/objectives • Risk Attitudes• Alternative Actions

2. Consequences • Predictive Models

3. Identify Preferred Action

• Optimization• Trade-off analysis

Page 6: Making better decisions for aquatic resources in the ... Decis… · Making better decisions for aquatic resources in the Anthropocene Adam Terando ... Sea-level rise and water resource

Formal problem deconstruction

The Decision Analytic Approach

1. Problem Framing

• Decision maker(s) & stakeholders• Values/objectives • Risk Attitudes• Alternative Actions

2. Consequences • Predictive Models

3. Identify Preferred Action

• Optimization• Trade-off analysis

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CONSIDERATION OF

NON-STATIONARY DYNAMICS

Sea-level rise and water resource managementCONSIDERATION OF NON-STATIONARY DYNAMICS IN DECISION-MAKING

USGS

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How do we manage a coastal wetland impoundment that must satisfy multiple competing objectives and address a changing climate?

OUR HYPOTHETICAL

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How do we manage a coastal wetland impoundment that must satisfy multiple competing objectives and address a changing climate?

OUR HYPOTHETICAL

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How do we manage a coastal wetland impoundment that must satisfy multiple competing objectives and address a changing climate?

OUR HYPOTHETICAL

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THE NEW REALITY

IPCC AR4 200711

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USGCRP – Draft NCA 2013

Already Seeing Big Changes12

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USGCRP – Draft NCA 201313

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Warmer climate means a wetter atmosphere

Wat

er v

apor

pre

ssur

e (m

b)

Temperature

Saturation vapor pressurees

16

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Larger percentage of precipitation has come in form of intense single day events.

Extreme One-Day Precipitation Events, Contiguous 48 States

Effects of Climate ChangeHeavy Precipitation

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Drought

Burke et al. 2006Chelcy Miniat, USDA Forest Service18

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River Discharge -An Example of Complex Interactions

tn.gov

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Leuzinger and Korner 2010, GCBLabat et al. 2004, AWRGedney et al. 2006, Nature

Streamflow

Simple Water Balance

Input – Output = Loss

Precipitation – Streamflow = Evapotranspiration

River discharge across the globe has been increasingat a rate of 4% for each 1°C increase in global temperature.

Chelcy Miniat, USDA Forest Service20

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Franks and Beerling 2009, PNAS

Evapotranspiration: Changes in Forest Leaves

With increasing size and decreasing density, stomatal conductance and transpirationalwater loss are reduced.

Chelcy Miniat, USDA Forest Service21

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Franks and Beerling 2009, PNAS

Evapotranspiration: Changes in Forest Leaves

Which means, discharge (i.e. streamflow) must increase.

Chelcy Miniat, USDA Forest Service

Simple Water Balance

Input – Output = Loss

Precipitation – Streamflow = Evapotranspiration

22

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Water availability could be a key concern

USGCRP – Draft NCA 201323

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Formal problem deconstruction

The Decision Analytic Approach

1. Problem Framing

• Decision maker(s) & stakeholders• Values/objectives • Risk Attitudes• Alternative Actions

2. Consequences • Predictive Models

3. Identify Preferred Action

• Optimization• Trade-off analysis

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Downscaling

“the process of making the link between the state some variable representing the large space and the state of some variable representing a much smaller space.” Benestad (2008)

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Pros – globally consistent, physically consistent, many parameters modeled,

Cons – computationally expensive, affected by errors in a GCM, must approximate the things that occur at a finer resolution (clouds, precipitation)

Statistical Dynamic

Pros – incorporate historical information, computationally inexpensive, flexibly crafted for specific purposes

Cons – assumes statistical relationships will be valid in the future, require a long observational record, affected by the errors in a GCM

Based on statistical relationships between regional and global scale

Based on physical relationships similar to those in the Global Climate Models

DOWNSCALING

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SERAP - HayhoeCLAREnCE10

Statistically DownscaledCCSM3A1FI Emissions Scenario

Dynamically DownscaledCCSM3A2 Emissions Scenario

Change in Average Total Precipitation

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Puerto RicoMean Annual Precipitation

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Puerto RicoMean Annual Precipitation

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GCMs can’t resolve island

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100 KM

Resolving Terrain is critical

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2 KM

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Formal problem deconstruction

The Decision Analytic Approach

1. Problem Framing

• Decision maker(s) & stakeholders• Values/objectives • Risk Attitudes• Alternative Actions

2. Consequences • Predictive Models

3. Identify Preferred Action

• Optimization• Trade-off analysis

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Formal Adaptive Management

System Model

Monitoring

System Model*

Learning Adapt

Action SHARPER

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Human use (agriculture and drinking water) and wildlife habitat

Maximize outflow for agricultural use Maintain minimum threshold of habitat for endangered sp.

Spring decision for water release

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WHICH HYPOTHESIS WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE ONE TRUE OBSERVED STATE?

FUTURE WATER DEMAND

DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY

Martin et al., Climatic Change, 2011

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150time

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Evidence (observations) of which state is reality increases with time.

Martin et al., Climatic Change, 2011

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150time

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Adjust actions accordingly.

LEARN

Martin et al., Climatic Change, 2011

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ADAPT

LEARN

Martin et al., Climatic Change, 2011

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SMALL DIFFERENCES IN OCCUPANCY

THRESHOLD

Martin et al., Climatic Change, 2011

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LARGE DIFFERENCES IN WATER RELEASE

Martin et al., Climatic Change, 2011

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LOWER VALUE IF CLIMATE CHANGE IGNORED

Irrigation levels (at)

Water Units

Year

Site Occupancy

Proportion Occupied

Year

Martin et al., Climatic Change, 2011

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LOWER VALUE IF CLIMATE CHANGE IGNORED

Irrigation levels (at)

Water Units

Year

Site Occupancy

Proportion Occupied

Year

Forced water closures

Threshold violations

Martin et al., Climatic Change, 2011