making information pay 2010
TRANSCRIPT
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Points of No Return
Mike ShatzkinMaking Information Pay
May 6, 2010
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My view: coming change dwarfs recent change
• Ebooks headed for 25% share of new narrative books soon (end of 2012?)
• Total online sales for those books will then exceed brick-and-mortar sales
• Entirely new publishing models enabled (ebook first and POD)
• Disintermediation becomes a real threat• Traditional business will have to shrink fast
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Inside the publishing houses
• Ebook first development will occur, then grow, then become dominant
• Brick-and-mortar will shrink gradually, then suddenly: drastic implications for sales and operations
• Ebook royalties of 25% become unsustainable• Single title marketing: for authors and mega-
books only• Consolidation occurs in many forms
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How are people reacting to change?Pretty optimistically…
• Most feel fundamental change has happened (31%) or is happening now (45%)
• Most feel their job skills will “match the industry’s future needs” (62% to 20% who don’t think so)
• Half (52%) expect our business to become more profitable
• Of those responding, half think we’ll have more jobs as a result of change, not fewer
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Some clouds in the blue sky
• Nearly half (48%) think their companies need to provide “more education”
• Profound change in editorial will blindside many people (a comment: “editing is editing”); only 59% expect “fundamental change” in editorial
• 20% do not think their skills will fit future industry needs
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Fun with “buzzwords”
• Big majority (62%) say Twitter is a “fad, soon to pass”(!)
• More than a third (38%) say that about “free as a price point”
• More than a quarter (28%) say that about “crowd sourcing”
• Long term trends: digital marketing, web analytics, publishing in vertical niches (75+%)
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Today’s program: before the breakExperts deliver data and insight
• Kelly Gallagher of Bowker: what consumers are saying about change
• David Guenette of Gilbane: the 7 essential systems for publishers
• George Lossius of Publishing Technology: investment decisions in a time of rapid change
• Jabin White of Wolters Kluwer: how change affects the people who are part of it
• Steve Walker of SBS Worldwide (sponsor): supply chain cost savings
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Today’s program: after the breakPublishers in the trenches
• John Konczal of Sterling Commerce (sponsor): tools to enable new business models
• Bruce Shaw & Adam Salomone of Harvard Common Press: editors acquiring for a portfolio
• Phil Madans of Hachette: workflow shift from “assembly line” to “collaboration”
• Matt Baldacci of Macmillan: the shift in marketing spending and skills
• Maureen McMahon of Kaplan: connecting, not closing and new hiring criteria for sales