making the case for a fair recovery nicola smith head of economic and social affairs, tuc
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Making the case for a fair recovery
Nicola SmithHead of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC
![Page 2: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Introduction
• Current state of the economy• Implications for services and spending• Is there any other choice?• What do the public think?• Arguing for an alternative
![Page 3: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
State of the economy
![Page 4: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The economy is finally growingQuarterly GDP growth rates, ONS
![Page 5: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Although it remains the slowest recovery on record
The profile of recession and recovery, NIESR
![Page 6: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
There are also concerns about how sustainable the recovery is
George Osborne, 25th Feb 2010: “The recovery will only be sustainable if it is
accompanied by an internal and external rebalancing of our economy: in other words a
higher savings rate, more business investment, and rising net exports”
![Page 7: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
With little evidence of ‘rebalancing’
GDP by expenditure, TUC Economic Quarterly
![Page 8: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
While household spending is increasing, real earnings are not
Contributions to annual growth in real earnings, TUC
![Page 9: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Jobs improvements are welcomeILO unemployment, TUC
![Page 10: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
But under-employment remains high, although levels are starting to fall
Involuntary temporary and part-time work, TUC
![Page 11: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
The jobs market has changed since 2008 with more part-time work
Part-time and full-time work, TUC
![Page 12: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
There has also been some change in jobs levels in different sectors
Change in workforce jobs, Sept 2008 – Sept 2013 TUC
![Page 13: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Some groups are now at particular risk of poorer outcomes
Employment rates for different groups, Inclusion
![Page 14: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
What does this mean for services and spending?
![Page 15: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Growing economy means that public finances are improving
Public finances, ONS
![Page 16: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
But most of the spending cuts in services and benefits are still to come
Green Budget 2014, IFS
![Page 17: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
And public sector employment is set to fall further
General Government Employment forecasts, OBR
![Page 18: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Is there any other choice?
![Page 19: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
What choices does government have?
• Far more than they suggest!
• We need to consolidate the public finances, but many unknowns: – How much capacity has been lost? – How sustainable is the recovery?
• And governments have choices: – Speed of consolidation– Balance between tax and spending– Discretion over tax cuts
![Page 20: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
There are also wider policy choices that could deliver a fairer recovery
• Employment protection legislation– Unfair dismissal protection– Rights for casual workers
• Strengthening the minimum wage and tackling high pay
• Fairness in social security– We don’t need the current sanctions regime
• Tax evasion and avoidance– How strong is the anti-avoidance strategy?
• Corporate governance and company decision making– Are firms being made to invest for the long-term?
![Page 21: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
So what do the public think of the current approach?
![Page 22: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
A consistent majority think the cuts have been unfair
You Gov tracker polls, TUC analysis
![Page 23: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Although a majority also think they are necessary
You Gov tracker polls, TUC analysis
![Page 24: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
The proportion who think the cuts are too deep has been falling
You Gov tracker polls, TUC analysis
![Page 25: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
As has the proportion who think the cuts are being implemented too fast
You Gov tracker polls, TUC analysis
![Page 26: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Public do not back plans for a permanently smaller state
TUC You Gov poll
![Page 27: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
And do not think gains of growth will be fairly shared
TUC You Gov poll
![Page 28: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Public support social security safety net
GQR polling for the TUC
![Page 29: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Particularly for people in workTUC You Gov poll
![Page 30: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Lots of misinformation about benefitsTUC You Gov poll, responses on proportion of benefits bill people think spent on JSA
![Page 31: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Few people think they have gained from the economic recovery
MORI poll on extent to which people think growth has benefitted their living standards
![Page 32: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
So what should progressives be arguing for?
![Page 33: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
What might a fairer recovery look like?
• Gains of growth that are more fairly shared– Better jobs (better balanced recovery and rights at work)– Fairer pay (at the bottom and at the top)
• Super-rich paying their fair share– Fair tax– Banks and big business held to account
• Vital welfare safety net retained– Protection for those who have contributed– A system that is fair
• Against permanent public service cuts– Childcare, social care, hospitals, schools vital to help
households and boost the economy
![Page 34: Making the case for a fair recovery Nicola Smith Head of Economic and Social Affairs, TUC](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ec15503460f94bcc9e9/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Over to you!