malthusian project complete (lc-pc's conflicted copy 2012-09-07)

7/31/2019 Malthusian Project Complete (LC-PC's Conflicted Copy 2012-09-07)

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Luke

CordenGroup B

Project Supervisor: Matthew Wilkin

CLS Tutor: Kay Syrad

June 3rd 2009

Word Count 5493

The global community is

witnessing


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a Malthusian catastrophe

Acknowledgements

Id like to Thomas Malthus, William Godwin and The Marquis de Condorcet for

never keeping quiet. Id like to thank the every-increasing world population for

giving me a topic to write about that is both fascinating and frightening. Id like

to thank my tutor Kay and Group B for being generally amazing and Darren for

not inviting me out to the pub to often. Most of all Id like to thank Pie for

inspiration in so many ways.


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Contents:

Part 1

Acknowledgements 2

Abstract 4

Introduction 6

Malthus and his principles 8

The Utopians 11

A [not so] brief history 15

Part 2

Moving the goal posts 23

The energy tapestry 25

The Millennium Development Goals 30

Conclusion 33

Bibliography 35


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Abstract

Hypothesis:The global community is witnessing a Malthusian Catastrophe.

For over two hundred years there has been debate over the implications of the

ever-increasing population of the human race. Now, as the worlds population

approaches 7 billion, with a projected 9 billion by 2050, the debate is more

important than ever. This essay traces the original arguments of Malthus,

Condorcet and Godwin through to the present day. By examining present day

thinking on the issue it is possible to see the evolution of Malthus central theory

on population as it adapts to an energy dependent world. The essay concludes by

arguing that the Millennium Development Goals, specifically education and birth

control, are our only means to combat the catastrophic consequences of an

industrialising population growing exponentially.


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Part 1

Three men went to mow.

Went to mow a meadow,

Three men,

Two men,

One man and his dog,

Went to mow a meadow.

-

(Anonymou

s)


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Introduction

I do not know that any writer has supposed that on this earth man will ultimately be able to live

without food.

(Malthus, 1798/1959:4)

In 1798 Thomas Robert Malthus said, Population has this constant tendency to

increase beyond the means of subsistence.(Malthus, 1803/1992:15) This

simple proposition lit the touch paper of a debate that has been burning ever

since. At times it has been forgotten, like embers glowing in the background, but

sometimes, as now, it burns brightly everywhere you turn. Poverty, hunger and

war are all around us.

With a simple statement Malthus challenged the dominant, Utopian thinking of

the age and far from making his observation and consigning himself to history,

he and his theory have journeyed with us for over two hundred years. Malthus,

however has not journeyed alone: he brought with him two of the great Utopian

thinkers of the day, his original antagonists: William Godwin and The Marquis de

Condorcet.

We see the ideas and attitudes of Malthus, Godwin and Condorcet born again and

again throughout history in the optimism and pessimism of the decades, in the

reliance on technology, in the struggle for the betterment of humankind, in

looking to the future with hope or in fear. The arguments of Godwin and

Condorcet are forever entwined with those of Malthus. This essay proposes that

their debate is reaching a catastrophic climax; affecting every living person on

this planet.


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Part one of this essay will explain Malthus original theory and the counter

arguments of Godwin and Condorcet. It tracks how attitudes have changed in the

last two hundred years, and how the central theory has fared against the

arguments directed at it. Part two deals with the pressures a growing population

has on our planet and on our ability to feed ourselves. It examines how an energy

dependent economy is in a precarious standoff with the worlds ecological

system and it explains how the Millennium Development Goals aim to address

the problems of an overpopulated world.


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Malthus and his principles

The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence

for man.

- (Malthus ,1798)

Whilst Malthus never claimed originality for his basic premise (that population

has a tendency to outgrow sustenance), it was his application of two ratios in

relation to the various checks to population that piqued peoples attention1.

The following section explains Malthus central theory, his application of a

geometric and arithmetic ratio, the various checks to population and the

indefatigable law of diminishing returns.

Malthus Principle of Population

Food is necessary for the existence of man. The passion of the sexes is necessary and will remain nearly in its present state. The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce

subsistence for man.

Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometric ratio. Subsistence increases onlyin an arithmetic ratio.

By that law of our nature that makes food necessary to human life, the effects of thesetwo unequal powers must be kept equal.

This implies a strong and constantly operating check on population from the difficulty ofsubsistence. (Kellman,1987:5)

1This Newtonian style approach to the population/food dilemma went on to help inspire Charles Darwin in the

formulation of his own theory of Natural Selection. (Malthus, 1803/1992:xi)


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Malthus theory of population pressure asserts that, as in nature and the animal

kingdom, man has an irrepressible drive to procreate. Unless this drive is

harnessed or slowed2 the natural tendency of man is to produce more offspring

than nature can provide for.

This natural tendency of humankind is in conflict with natures ability to produce

the required amount of sustenance, especially as, unlike nature, population is not

limited by the law of diminishing returns. Malthus explains this principle both

eloquently in word and simply in mathematics.

This is a stream which, from the nature of all soils, instead of increasing, must be gradually

diminishing. (Malthus, 1803/1992:17)

Malthus has pointed out the obvious, land, by its very nature is finite, and the

soils used in producing food are, by their very nature, prone to degradation. Once

all cultivatable land is in use, due to soil depletion, yields will start falling and

once this happens the ever-increasing population will become susceptible to

what Malthus terms The Ultimate Check, a basic need of food.

Malthus explains that population grows at a geometric ratio (1,2,4,8,16,32 etc)

and food can only grow at an arithmetic ratio (1,2,3,4,5,6 etc) ultimately leading

to grim consequences such as starvation and death, if left unchecked.

In reality there are a variety of factors that act as a limit to the upper level of

population. The ultimate limiting factor to population is the want of food as any

given population cannot exceed its means of subsistence. Malthus describes the

limits as checks and categorises them as follows:

2Moral restraint was Malthus solution to an ever-increasing population. He believed that people should marry laterwhen they could support a family and that until that time they should avoid sexual intercourse. (Malthus, 1803/1992:xiv)


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The Preventive Check the preventive check is peculiar to man, and arises from that

distinctive superiority in his reasoning faculties, which enables him to calculate distant

consequences. (Malthus, 1803/1992:21)

This is to say that man has the ability to reason out the future costs and

responsibilities that having a child would incur, and whether it is a sensible or

viable course of action.

The positive checkThe positive checks to population are extremely various and include

every course [] which in any degree contributes to shorten the natural duration of human

life [] nursing of children, great towns, excesses of all kinds, [] diseases and epidemics,

wars, pestilence and famine. (Malthus, 1803/1992:23)

Whilst some of these positive checks are, theoretically, avoidable, this is not the

case with acts of nature; regardless they all act to limit population growth.

Malthus goes on to explain that when a combination of these preventive and

positive checks are in place they form an immediate check to population that

will manifest in a controlling influence on any given population. (Malthus,

1803/1992:25)

This essay examines how the ratio between population and sustenance has

evolved to match an energy dependent world, and attempts to determine if an

imbalance in this ratio is enough to cause catastrophic consequences to the

global community. Catastrophe in this sense is referring to the pressure an

increasing population is causing on the earths ability to sustain humankind.

We cannot escape the fact that people in extreme poverty are dying everyday in

countries across the globe. The United Nations has adopted a set of goals to

combat this problem, which will be explored in part two. The question this essay

seeks to answer is whether or not an ever-increasing population is responsible

for those deaths.


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The Utopians

During the period immediately preceding and following the French Revolution, there was a

great spirit of optimism among the political philosophers of Europe. Encouraged by the triumphs

of Newtonian mechanics, they believed that science, reason and education, together with the

principles of political liberty and equality, would soon lead humanity forward to a new era ofhappiness.

- (John Avery, 1997:xiv)

Malthus predictions come in stark contrast to a great wave of optimistic

thinking during the late 1700s. Utopian thought was prominent3 and it was two

vastly influential proponents of the utopian vision that are synonymous with

Malthus. Condorcetand Godwin are so inextricably linked with Malthus work, as

to be mentioned in the full title of the first edition of his essay.4

It is a little unfair to the men themselves to only mention them in relation to

Malthus.5 They are however, necessarily connected with Malthus and his work.

Without the ideas proposed by these two men there might not have been an

essay.6 This section is an appraisal of those ideas with a brief description of the

men and their work.

3 The Enlightenment was a sprawling intellectual, philosophical, cultural, and social movement that spread throughEngland, France, Germany, and other parts of Europe during the 1700s. (www.sparknotes.com, 2009)

4An Essay on the Principle of Population, as it affects the Future Improvement of Society with remarks on the Speculations ofMr. Godwin, M. Condorcet, and Other Writers.

5 They were inspirational men in and of themselves and more than worthy of the in depth studies their individual lives

have inspired. Indeed the Marquis de Condorcets life story makes for a fantastical read set as it was in the throws of theFrench Revolution.

6It was Condorcets and Godwins proposals for a perfect society and for the perfectibility of man that so intrigued DanielMalthus and his contemporaries and it was through these debates with his elders that the younger Malthus was led to

formulate his theory on population. So impressed was he, with his sons theory, that Daniel Malthus compelled his son tocommit his ideas to paper, which he did, initially in the form of an anonymous pamphlet. (Malthus, 1803/1992:vii-viii)


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The Marquis de Condorcet

The Marquis de Condorcet had always been interested in the concept of human

perfectibility. In The Esquisse dun Tableau Historique des Progres de l Esprit

Humainhe examines the possibility of infinite human perfectibility. In this work

he pre-empts many of Charles Darwins own ideas concerning evolutionary

theory. It is in the context of evolutionary growth that Condorcet proceeds with

his theory7.

He believes that as mans knowledge evolves he would come to see the atrocities

of wars of all kinds as unnecessary and thus abolish their practice. Medical

advances would abolish disease and popular governments would be elected.

Society would achieve peace as man perfected himself. (Avery, J. 1997)

Condorcet realised that this utopia would increase the numbers of people on

earth and his answer to this problem is one on the two arguments commonly

used against the Malthusian proposition. Condorcet wrote:

There is no person who does not see how very distant such a period is from us. But shall we

ever arrive at it? It is equally impossible to pronounce for or against the future realisation of

an event which cannot take place but in an era when the human race will have attained

improvements, of which at present we can scarcely form a conception. (Avery, J. 1997:11-12)

This idea of the inevitable catastrophe being far enough into the future to

warrant not taking it seriously has become a powerful argument, especially

7 It is also noteworthy that Condorcet also proposed that as man progressed along his path of perfectibility he may reacha point where all superstitions would fall away and as a result birth control may be used as a way to control levels ofpopulation. It seems that along with pre-empting Darwin, Condorcet was also ahead of his time here, and it adds to the

sad irony that the Neo-Malthusian movement bore Malthus name as he was against the practice of birth control. (Avery, J.1997)


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when coupled with the belief that improvements in technology will come to

humanitys aid.

William Godwin

Like Condorcet, Godwin was a believer in the perfectibility of man and society.

Godwin wanted to reform society and his book,Enquiry Concerning Political

Justice and its Influence on General Virtue and Happiness,was an enthusiastic

vision of what humans could be like at some future period. (Avery, J. 1997:25)

Political Justice was a radical and exciting exploration into what human life

could be like8. Godwins reputation skyrocketed, as did his following. His vision

of utopia, and the perfectibility of man through his duties to others are

comparable to the ideas of Thoreau, Tolstoy and Ghandi all of whom came after

him. (Avery, J. 1997:26)

As with Condorcet, the question of population arose, to which Godwin replied:

To reason thus is tosee difficulties at a great distance [] Three fourths of the known globe

are now uncultivated. The parts already cultivated are capable of immeasurable improvement.

Myriads of centuries of still increasing population may pass away and the earth still be found

sufficient for all the subsistence of all its inhabitants. (Malthus, 1803/1992:58)

Godwin echoes Condorcet in his belief that any likely difficulties are too far into

the future to cast serious judgement on. He also demonstrates the optimism

8Political Justice was published on 14th February 1793, in the tense weeks between a French declaration of war against

England and Englands counter declaration of war with France. The book sold for one pound and sixteen shillings more

than three times the weekly wage for a labourer and it was on the basis of this that the government decided not to

prosecute Godwin and his publisher [for the books radical ideas] . Pitt is said to have remarked a three guinea book

could never do much harm between those who do not have 3 shil lings to spare, [by all accounts he was wrong.] (Avery, J.

1997:30)


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inherent in all future arguments against Malthus predictions. The arguments of

both Condorcet and Godwin, once understood, occur again and again in different

guises, from different sources, throughout the next two hundred years. Kellman

(1987) has labelled these arguments the twin rebuffs of Godwin and Condorcet.

The twin rebuffs

Both Godwin and Condorcet believed that human nature is basically good, that any increase

in knowledge must be beneficial, that truth and justice are in the long run invincible and that

gradual progress of society is inevitable. (Avery, J. 1997:xiv)

Godwin and Condorcet [] believed that the application of scientific progress to agriculture

and industry would inevitably lead society forward to a golden age.(Avery, J. 1997:xv)

These two arguments of time and the advancement of technology have, in their

ambiguity, stood the test of time, whilst our numbers have increased, so has our

means to deal with them and consequently our levels of production and

subsistence have also kept pace. As Condorcet predicted, as the human race has

expanded so has its knowledge base. With our increase in knowledge comes an

increase in technology. Our lifestyles have changed for the better immeasurably

since Malthus time and in the developed world the only problem with food is

deciphering the calorie count.

Throughout the time line created in the next section, it is easy to see the ongoing

battle between the twin rebuffs of Godwin and Condorcet and the inescapable

logic of the Malthusian trap.


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A [not so] brief history

"It's my belief that history is a wheel. 'Inconstancy is my very essence,' says the wheel. Rise up on my

spokes if you like but don't complain when you're cast back down into the depths. Good time pass

away, but then so do the bad.

- (Boethius, c. AD 475-525)

Malthus proposals and the twin rebuffs of Condorcet and Godwin are still alive

and well in todays world. They have stood the test of time remarkably well,

bruised at times but never completely battered. If anything the arguments of

Condorcet and Godwin held up a little better, but the Malthusian argument has

learnt to adapt in a changing world and is potentially all the stronger for it today.

1798-1898

Malthus had no way of foreseeing how monumental the Industrial Revolutionwould be in Britain. It was a time of abundance and although there was poverty

and overcrowding in cities, it seemed with new inventions creating a wealth of

trade to import foreign foods that no crisis would come. It seemed that the

optimistic predictions of Godwin and Condorcet were to be proven correct.

Malthusian debate lay relatively dormant until 1898 when Sir William Crookes

speculated that, all civilized nations stand in deadly peril of not havingenough to eat. (Crooks, 1917/1976:2) In his book, The Wheat Problem9, Crooks

comments that whilst the amount of bread eaters in America are on the increase,

frontiers of uncultivated land are on the steady decline and almost exhausted. He

predicted that this disaster would hit in the 1930s. (Crooks, 1917/1976)

9Sir William Crookes was a prominent chemist and is better known for the discovery of thallium. His book The WheatProblem explores the difficulties that were facing the worlds wheat supplies. Both importers such as his native Britainand major growers and exporters such as the United States were found to be in grave danger from an imminent lack of

grain supplies.


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1900-1920

During the first twenty years of the 20th Century there were contrasting views on

the population/food debate. There had, due to an advance in farming techniques,

been an abundance of food to keep pace with the growing population, and so

Malthus and his ideas were put aside. But when food shortages manifested post

World War One, it prompted Keynes10 to speculate that we are indeed headed

for a disaster, as far from the shortages being a product of the war, they were in

actual fact the consequence of earlier long-run trends of food production

operating under the law of diminishing returns. (Kellman, 1987:8)

1920s

The 1920s were generally an optimistic period for agriculture and those

involved with it. Malthus was ignored for the most part and the philosophy

proposed by Godwin and Condorcet, namely that time and technology will save

us were back in favour. There were opposing views still at work and the

following quotations give a good insight into the thinking of the time:

Economists [] admit the increasing pressure of population on the worlds food supply, but

predict that something will surely turn up in time to prevent mass starvation.

(Bland, 1926)

The increase in population is a fact of the present and therefore a possible danger for thefuture. It is of course obvious that the ultimate effect of an unlimited increase in population

would be the starvation of extra persons

(Gras, 1925)

10John Maynard Keynes was a prominent British economist. His book The Economic Consequences of Peace, publishedin 1920, was widely read and the statistical evidence presented in the book brought the food/population problem clearly

back into focus and revived Malthusian fears.


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Nobody during this period took up Malthus cause with any real vigour. As was

often to be the case when times were good. Optimism for the future and

contentment with the present are powerful allies.

1930s-1950s

The 1930s are often remembered in the western world for the Great Depression:

Wall Street crashed and the worlds economy quickly followed suit. It was a time

of general pessimism, however not in the Malthusian sense. Malthus had once

again been put to bed so to was Crooks argument, as his earlier prediction of

starvation hitting America was nowhere to be seen.

The wide spread hunger, was not due to a shortage of food11. Crooks had failed to

take into account advances in technology that allowed for greater expansion of

both food and population. Quite in contrast to Malthus predictions the 1930s

brought about a general depopulation of industrialised countries, possibly in

reaction to the scarcity and hardships involved with the Great Depression.

(Kellman, 1987:11-12)

The 1940s brought a new and very real problem. In the aftermath of World War

Two there were massive food shortages and the potential of a real crisis was

looming heavily on the horizon, but again this was not a problem of resources

but of distribution12. With infrastructure all but eradicated throughout much of

Europe it would take a massive rebuilding project to allow for the supplies to get

through. (Kellman, 1987:13)

The 1940s is also notable as the decade the First World Food Reportwas

published by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations

11The Great Depression made 15 million Americans (one-quarter of the workforce) unemployed. The widespreadhunger was due to a lack of money and not a lack of food. (pbs.org, 2009)12It was generally accepted that between North America and Argentina there was enough wheat to weather the storm.


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(FAO).13 The findings were sufficiently pessimistic, suggesting that the general

trend in developed countries showed an increase in birth rates, whilst death

rates were decreasing, and that the world over, particularly the less developed

regions, demonstrated evidence of undernourishment.

Malthus gloomy predictions seemed to be awaiting humanity, and now with the

suspect science of the FAO adding to his credibility it seemed his argument might

actually be won. Godwin and Condorcet had always claimed science as their

champion, yet now it seemed the scientific community had allied itself with

Malthus. If the 1970s were to belong to Godwin and Condorcet then arguably the

1960s were the domain of Malthus.

1960s

During the 1960s the world stood on the brink of catastrophe. Massive crop

failures in the Soviet Union and the Indo-Pakistan sub-continent in 1966/67

plunged the world into a huge food deficit14. The United States was shouldered

with the burden of meeting world demand but in 1967 it became apparent that

this was unsustainable and that the less developed world would soon lose the

ability to feed itself. It became a case, not ofifbutwhen. It was commonly

believed that by 1984 traditional exporters would be unable to meet world

demand. (Kellman, 1987:16)

This was a very real problem, which needed to be addressed. In 1967 the

Presidents Science Advisory Committee (PSAC) published The World Food

Problem in response. Its findings were consistent with the beliefs of the time.

13The First World Food Report(1946) had, for the first time scientifically documented the food/population problem.This was well received and although, self admittedly not perfect, became the accepted method of analysis. The FAOexpanded its methods of investigation from the First World Food Report to include food balance sheets and employedphysiologists to work out exact calorie requirements. All of this new scientific method went into the Second World FoodReport and produced findings that whilst still imperfect, were far better than the original. The World Food Reports havecontinued ever since and still struggle to give exact figures, as is the nature of the problem.

14Throughout this essay there is a heavy focus on crop yields - in particular grain. The reason for this isworld grainproduction is a basic indicator of dietary adequacy on the individual level and of overall food security at a global level.

(Brown, 2005)


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Food has not kept pace with population and the developing world continues to lose ground in

this race [] the world food problem is one of the foremost challenges of mankind today.

(PSAC, 1967)

These findings further compounded the need for action. In the short term there

was massive focus on technological innovation in food production, it needed to

be more successful than history had recorded in any twenty-year period, (PSAC,

1967) whilst in the long term intensive family planning programs were seen as

imperative15.

1970s and the Green Revolution

Achieving an acceptable balance between food and people is widely regarded as one of the

two most difficult problems facing mankind in the remaining third of the twentieth century.

The other is averting nuclear war. Lester Brown (1970:x)

In the 1970s the world was reaping the rewards of the time and effort ploughed

into new technology during the late 1960s. Godwin and Condorcet would have

been enamoured by the ingenuity of humankind to master its surroundings and

create new technologies in the pursuit of human perfectibility.

New varietals of rice and wheat thrived under hugely beneficial weather

conditions and an active stance from food agencies to help agriculture develop in

less developed countries allowed for bumper crops in the years 1967-1969.16

15The orally taken contraceptive known as the pill was first marketed in 1960 by G.D. Searle and Company. Itsintroduction changed birth control practices forever. On a governmental level the Lyndon B. Johnson administrationinitiated federally supported family planning programs in the mid1960s, causing uproar amongst the Roman Catholichierarchy which no doubt raised the profile of the issue. (www.encyclopedia.com, 2009)16The crop explosion was nothing if not dramatic. Between 1964 and 1969 the amount of new land being planted, in

Asia, with the new varietals expanded from 200 acres to 34,000,000 acres. The 4% increase in food production that wasneeded in the late 60s was achieved and surpassed by a massive 60% increase in production. (Kellman, 1987)


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This spectacular step forward was not without its own problems. There was a

huge disparity in price between new varietals of grain and the new chemical

fertilisers needed to grow them. The effect of countries becoming self-sufficient

also had its own economic consequence on the world market. However, there

were more subtle problems to this sudden abundance of food.

The new varietals of grain and rice were planted in the most fertile of regions.

Whilst this initially helped produce bumper crops the law of diminishing returns

will inevitably come into play. There were also the social difficulties in teaching

and converting millions of traditional flood plain farmers to new methods of

farming. (Kellman, 1978:19)

1980-2000

The green revolution appeared to be a huge success, and arguably it was, but

there were still big problems to contend with. Dire conditions in Africa

continued, most memorable of which were the Ethiopian famines of the 1980s.

War and other socioeconomic factors played their part in the tragedy but so to

did an increasing population without the means to sustain itself. Malthus

preventive and positive checks came into operation and the resulting end was

the terrible famines witnessed by the Ethiopian Peoples and many others across

much of North Africa. (Kellman, 1987:20)

It was in light of the dramatic pictures being broadcast during these famines, that

charity events, like Live Aidtook place. Public attention was fixed on these issues

and action was demanded. More reports were carried out; an FAO report entitled

The potential population supporting capacities of lands in the developing world

had this to say:

large areas of land in the developing world will have insufficient potential to feed their

populations if traditional methods of farming continue to be used. Many would be in a critical

state in the year 2000 unable to feed their populations (FAO, 1984)


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Two hundred years on and the arguments are still current and no closer to a

definitive conclusion. The human race has moved on considerably, the pace and

quality of our lives is unrecognisable from Malthus time and yet with all our

technological, scientific and medical breakthroughs we still live in a world where

hunger and poverty claim countless lives every year.

Part two of this essay addresses the problems of the new millennium, how we

must raise the standards of living in the developing world before we become

victim to our own success. Part two also explores the interplay between

economy and ecology, between oil, water and food and assesses the importance

of achieving the goals set down by the United Nations in the year 2000.


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Par

t 2

The old earth

Had a birth,

As all men know,

Long ago.

And the old earth must die.

So let the warm winds range,

And the blue wave beat the shore;

For even and morn

Ye will never see

Thro eternity.

All things were born.

Ye will come never more,

For all things must die.


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- (Lord Alfred

Tennyson 1809-1892 from the poem All Things Will

Die)

Moving the goal posts

The rules of the game were circumvented but only for a while. The Malthusian theory warns of

absolute limits and inevitable scarcity. It reminds us that the need for resources will continue to

impose limits to growth.

- (De Walle, 1980)

De Walle (1980) made an intriguing comparison between Ivan Karamazous

Christ and Malthus. He supposes that if, (like the Christ of Karamazous tale17),

Malthus returned to earth today, he would walk the land with a feeling of

vindication, for his prophesies were proven correct: war, famine and poverty are

all presentin todays world. De Walle was making this comparison in 1980 but

arguably the comparison holds true to the present day.

However, as De Walle (1980) suggests, there would be a few things to puzzle

Malthus, in particular Malthus would be staggered by the billions of people

inhabiting earth. He may be equally amazed at the seeming ability of food to keep

pace with population.

The advent of steam; the ability to be able to import grain; the abundant use of

fossil fuels and new technologies in agriculture have allowed the world

population, in general, to grow unchecked and propelled us into the 21stcentury.

17Ivan Karamazou is a character from the novel The Brothers Karamazovby Fyodor Dostoyevsky.


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However, not without our own set of pressures in the population/food dilemma.

Malthus would soon realise there is a flaw in his theory, but where?

De Walle(1980) shows us that food can keep up with population, given the

resources to produce and distribute it, and here lies the new problem: utilisation

of fossil fuels allowed us to increase crops vastly, via oil based chemical

fertilisers. We were able to transport them around the globe with relative ease

and speed but it is this reliance on non-renewable resources that poses us our

biggest obstacle yet. The goal posts have been moved, but Malthusian theory can

be adapted to these changes in circumstance as indeed it has been. Abundant

energy might now be compared to abundant land. The next section deals with

energy and how we are caught up in an energy economy that influences every

aspect of our lives.


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The Energy Tapestry

The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization.

-(Ralph Waldo Emerson, 1803-1882)

The speed of humankinds industrial advancement is staggering. Malthus would

have been privy to the influence of coal during the industrial revolution but oil

for Malthus would have been a luxury and little more. When Al Hammil

discovered the first of many major oil fields in Texas, humankind was set upon a

path that would change the world forever; the year was 1901.

Britain was the first major fuel economy. Dependent on coal to fuel its daily life it

grew into a powerful nation. Between 1700 and 1900 coal consumption for the

average Englishman rose from less than one ton of coal a year to over four tons.

Not just for heating and lighting, but also for production and industrialisation,

which in turn created more money, which in turn created more demand and thus

more production. We see this cycle repeated through out history as countries

industrialise. (Roberts, 2005)

However in 1908, a mere seven years after Al Hammils discovery, in a sure sign

of things to come, Britain made the bold move to switch the fuel of its entire navy

from coal to oil. It was done in an effort to gain advantage over Germans who

were preparing for World War One. At that point Britain had no oil of its own

and so its security was reliant on supplies coming from the Middle East. With


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this move geopolitics was born into the mechanised world and oil was the major

player. (Roberts, 2005)

Today, every aspect of our lives revolves around oil. It is the undulating current

giving movement to our lives. Heat, food, transport, entertainment, medical

supplies and procedures, communications, education, security, agriculture,

everything we buy; it all has a measure of oil involved somewhere along the line.

Yet oil is just one thread in an intricate, energy tapestry that makes up our lives.

There are other strands to be considered; one of which is water.

Water is intrinsic to all life and water, like oil, is feeling the pinch of an ever-

increasing population thirsty for progress. Unlike oil however, there is no

alternative to water, which causes a problem as without water everything dies.

As these vital resources become more depleted other threads in the tapestry get

pulled out of position creating holes and warping the overall picture of human

life on earth.

The next few sections look at how this tapestry is woven together and where it is

becoming stretched, at how the tapestry seems to be unravelling in China and

how energy, population and climate change are coming together to create a

perfect storm.

The Japan Syndrome

I noted that if countries are already densely populated when they begin to industrialise

rapidly, three things happen in quick succession to make them heavily dependent on grain

imports: grain consumption climbs [] grain land area shrinks, and grain production falls.

(Brown, 2005:11)

Grain consumption increases with the increase in wages that industrialisation

brings. Initially the populace consumes more grain, but after a short time higherwages allow for more varied diets including grain intensive produce like


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livestock. Grain land shrinks as land is given over to livestock and high value

crops such as fruit and vegetables.

This trend continues and workers begin to migrate to the cities for higher wages,

with the loss of labour the productivity of yields is further reduced. The added

labour provided from the migrating workers allows cities to expand further and

in doing so they take up more cropland for residential and industrial buildings,

further reducing crop productivity. Roads and highways are then built to

accommodate the increasing fleets of vehicles taking up still more land. Whilst an

increasing demand for water in the cities, as industry grows and lifestyles

change, causes water to be diverted away from agriculture giving the farmers

less water to grow produce with, so again reducing productivity. (Brown, 2005)

Countries that were self-sufficient can very quickly find themselves reliant on

foreign grain imports for basic dietary requirements. Lester Brown calls this the

Japan Syndrome as he first noticed this pattern emerging there. Japan went

from self-sufficiency to importing 70% of its grains. South Korea and Taiwan

followed suit, almost identically, and now import around 70% of their grains.

China

China is now experiencing the Japan Syndrome. It has been the worlds fastest

growing economy since 1980 but in the five years between 1998 and 2003

Chinas grain harvest fell by 70 million tons. Everything that happened in Japan is

showing signs of happening in China, and the latter has other major ecological

problems to contend with all of which directly effect its food producing

capability.

China is literally drying out: aquifer depletion, falling water tables and rapid

desertification18 are all present in an eco-system that is dangerously unbalanced.

18An aquifer is an underground layer of water-bearing permeable rock or unconsolidated materials from whichgroundwater can be usefully extracted using a water-well (Wikipedia, 2009 a)


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These problems combined with the apparent intricacies of the Japan syndrome

pose a serious threat to world food security. As fore mentioned, Japan, Taiwan

and South Korea are all dependent on world supplies for 70% of their basic

dietary needs. Should China follow suit and need to import only 20% of its grains

then the world would struggle to match that demand. (Brown, 2005)

Moreover, the resulting increase in the price of food would destabilise many

world governments and has the potential to cause food riots as seen last year in

Haiti. (BBC News, 2009) China is not alone in this situation. Other densely

populated countries can be seen to be following the same path as China. India

with a population of over one billion is showing signs of shrinking cropland and

with aquifers becoming depleted and water tables falling, India too will

experience water shortages and falling harvests in the years to come. It is

estimated that the population of India will have outgrown that of China by 2050

which again is a frightening prospect should they need to begin importing grains.

Three of the worlds largest grain producers China, India and the United States

are all suffering falling water tables and aquifer depletion. With an extra three

billion people expected to be inhabiting the world by 2050 and with falling

production in these key producing countries the outlook is worrying. When

Chinas grain harvest fell by 70 million tons that was equal to the combined grain

exports of Australia, Argentina and Canada. (Brown, 2005)

Research has also shown us that a 10C increase in climate leads to a 10%

decrease in wheat, grain and rice yields. (Brown, 2005) With China and India

pumping out vast amounts of carbon dioxide as they industrialise, there could be

catastrophic damage to the world grain supplies. During a century that is

The water table is the level at which the groundwater pressure is equal to atmospheric pressure. It may be convenientlyvisualized as the 'surface' of the groundwater in a given vicinity . (Wikipedia, 2009 c)

Desertification is the degradation of land in arid and dry sub-humid areas, resulting primarily from man-made activitiesand influenced by climatic variations. [Desertification] is principally caused by overgrazing, over-drafting of groundwaterand diversion of water from rivers for human consumption and industrial use, all of these processes fundamentally

driven by overpopulation. (Wikipedia, 2009 b)


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expected to witness increases of several 0C, might we also witness an

unprecedented shortage in crop production?

The Perfect Storm

Industrialisation, falling water tables, aquifer depletion, global warming and

desertification are all threads in the same tapestry. Woven together as they are

now the tapestry looks old and worn and shows a bleak outlook for the future.

Once you weave in rising food and oil prices, food riots, African nations unable to

feed themselves due to having lost generations of able bodied workers to

HIV/AIDS and water related diseases it is hard to see any positives in what

appears to be a world intent pushing itself towards destruction.

It appears that there is no alternative to a problem that is deeply rooted in our

energy dependent way of life. We cannot, for example, ask China to stop

mechanising, nor can we deny China food for import. As for Africa, it is the

second most populated continent in the world and its population is expected to

grow exponentially between now and 2050. If the rest of the world helps Africa

develop industrially then we will be causing further environmental pressure on

the earths already strained, ecological system.

It seems that humankind is caught in the midst of a perfect storm and

paradoxically it seems that we must first increase our numbers so that in turn we

can stabilise them. By which time, the optimists might argue, a solution will

present itself. In the next section there is an examination of three key Millennium

Development Goals set out by the United Nations as targets to halve world

poverty by 2015.


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The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)

The eight MDGs which range from halving extreme poverty to halting the spread of

HIV/AIDS and providing universal primary school education, all by the target date of 2015

form a blueprint agreed by all the worlds countries and all the worlds leading

development institutions. They have galvanised unprecedented efforts to meet the needs of

the worlds poorest.

- (www.un.org, 2009)

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) were agreed in 200019

. In theforeword to the Millennium Development Goals Report 2008, the Secretary

General to The United Nations, Ban Ki-Moon said:

We have made important progress towards all eight goals, but we are not on track to fulfil our

commitments [] these tasks have now become more challenging because the largely benign

development environment that has prevailed since the early years of this decade, and that has

contributed to the successes to date, is now threatened. We face a global economic slowdown

and a food security crisis, both of uncertain magnitude and duration. Global warming has

become more apparent. (Ban Ki-Moon, 2008:5)

The MDGs are arguably the strongest indicator of the difficulties the global

community faces. All eight MDGs are noble and necessary commitments that, if

19The MDGs represent a global partnership that has grown from the commitments and targets established at the worldsummits of the 1990s. Responding to the world's main development challenges and to the calls of civil society, the MDGs

promote poverty reduction, education, maternal health, gender equality, and aim at combating child mortality, AIDS andother diseases. Set for the year 2015, the MDGs are an agreed set of goals that can be achieved if all actors work togetherand do their part. Poor countries have pledged to govern better, and invest in their people through health care and

education. Rich countries have pledged to support them, through aid, debt relief, and fairer trade. (United NationsDevelopment Program, 2009)


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adhered to and not just agreed to, can allow for great progress to be made. For

the purpose of this essay though it is the first three goals that need to be given

attention as they offer the greatest solution to a growing population and the

pressures it puts upon the planet to sustain it.

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger: With the current trend for higher

food prices more people are being pushed into poverty. Obviously, if we achieve

this goal a lot of peoples lives will improve dramatically, leading to a surge in

population and consumption of food and fuels as diets diversify and lifestyles

improve. Weve looked at the effects of this in earlier with the Japan Syndrome.

It seems apparent that this goal alone, leads us closer towards the predictions of

Malthus.

Goal 2: Achieve universal primary educationand,

Goal 3: Promote gender equality and promote women: Two essential goals in

overcoming the population dilemma we face. Thailand20 and Iran21 are two

successful demonstrations of where education and family planning have played

the pivotal role in reducing and even reversing fertility rates to a manageable

level. (Brown, 2005)

Education and family planning are absolutely essential in solving this problem

and ensuring equality for women will allow them to make informed choices on

childbirth without fear of reprisal. The more education girls get, the fewer

children they have. This is a relationship that cuts across cultures and societies.

(Brown, 2005:38)

20Thailand adopted a strong educational policy towards decreasing fertility. The leader of the movement was calledMechai Vivavaidya. Such was his success Mechai is now slang for condom in Thailand.

21Irans success story was made possible by the joint efforts of the government, the ministries of culture and education.It was made clear to the citizens that family planning clinics were available and that it was necessary for them to limit theamount of children they were having. Iran couples must even take a two-day course in family planning in order to get

married.


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Unfortunately, according to the Millennium Development Goals Report 2008 we

still have some distance to go to achieve this. By embracing education and family

planning, as the majority of the developed world has done, it may be possible to

halt our population at 7 Billion as opposed to 9 Billion.

Stopping the clock

At 7 billion we might, with some ingenuity, weather the perfect storm that has

been created. Hulse (2007) makes an interesting observation claiming that

Malthus, Godwin and Condorcet may well have identified with their own point of

view but with one fundamental difference.

In the absence of some cataclysmic eventor widespread disease epidemics, population

growth, with persistent rising consumption of natural and industrially derived resources, will

irreparably stress the planets resources and ecology. Contradictions over possible

consequences of ever rising populations, resource depletion and environmental change are

polarised between two extreme positions: a) increasing population and resource demands

pose a serious threat to environmental stability and finite resources; b) human creativity and

scientific ingenuity will devise technological means and resources by which to increase the

planets resources and human carrying capacity. (Hulse, J. 2007:211)

Notable by its absence is a time frame, which leads the reader to conclude that

we are in the midst of the problem and not speculating on some distant

possibility. The technology Hulse (2007) refers to is only in its infancy,

technology exists22

but nothing is yet ready to shoulder the responsibility of oil.23

Science cannot replicate water in anyway viable to consider it an alternative and

various agricultural techniques are not yet efficient enough to feed 7 billion

people.

22Joseph Hulse has a comprehensive look at the varying technologies and sustainable agricultural practices that can be

employed to ease the burden on the environment in his book. Sustainable development at risk: ignoring the past.23The much lauded hydrogen fuel cell is given a thorough examination by Paul Roberts in his absorbing book; The end ofoil. He comes to the conclusion that the fuel cell is nowhere near ready to replace oil in the energy market.


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Conclusion

Shell be coming round the mountain when she comes.

- Carl Sandburg, 1927

We are very much are entwined within the tapestry that we have woven.

Dependent on energy for our modern lives, happy in our diversity and humane

enough to want to free the rest of the world from poverty and violence. If we

increase our numbers we put our own futures and those of future generations in

jeopardy.

As to the question whether or not the global community is witnessing a

Malthusian Catastrophe? In the immediate future I believe it is unlikely.

However, I do believe that the world economy is so precariously balanced

against the worlds ecology that catastrophe could strike at any moment. World

governments have begun to take notice far too late in the day. As of now, not

enough is being done. Global warming is irreversible, water is running out, as is

oil and the world population of continues to rise.

I believe things will get worse before they get better. Technology and science will

provide some answers but I do not believe they will be ready for the huge

upheavals caused by a planet under severe stress from its human inhabitants.


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The Malthusian trap closes slowly and for that reason I believe that we could

well be witnessing a global catastrophe that will manifest itself in resource wars

and mass food riots.

Malthus I believe is ultimately correct, his logic seems inescapable and yet over

the years Godwin and Condorcet have continued to triumph in the face of

seemingly insurmountable problems. Were they around today I have no doubt

their debates would be fascinating. With the extra dimensions of science,

technology, society, economy, geopolitics, climate and energy to examine it may

take them another two hundred years to find some common ground, or maybe a

resolution could never be reached.


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malthusian project complete (lc-pc's conflicted copy 2012-09-07)

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