managing crop production uncertainties and climate variability through a map-based system -...
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Managing crop production uncertainties and climate variability though a map-
based system
By
Jean-Francois (John) Rochecouste Univ. of Qld.Brad Jones Bungulla Farming Pty LtdJames Betti Bungulla Farming Pty Ltd
Acknowledgment:
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Case Study : Bungulla Farming
7,200 hectares of cropping
Average 320 mm Annual rainfall – sandy soils
Hard pan layer
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Operating Economic Assumption 1 Price of oil to go up
Global Financial crisis effect
Diesel Price monthly retail (US cents/gallon)
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Corresponding increase in the price of fertiliser
Operating Economic Assumption 2
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Average gross income from wheat in 1997 was:1.4 X $193 = $270.2/hectare
Current price at silo Cambooya $320.00
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20090
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500Wheat prices in Australian dollars at Silo (annual average)
Dolla
rs (A
UD)
Operating Economic Assumption 3
Volatile grain prices
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Despite some recent high grain prices in the last 5 years, grain farmers have averaged a -1.4%
productivity decline
source: ABARE presentation 2010 report to GRDC
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Climate Risk
Median Precipitation change by 2030??
Suggested: “Decreases of around 5% prevail in winter and spring, particularly in the South-west where they reach 10%”
CSIRO, 2007, Climate change in Australia – Technical Report 2007
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Proposed Management Action
Seek to develop a 2-3% increase in productivity per year and manage risks to protect productivity using
best available data
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How do we determine data needs?
Does data drive management? (often the case)Letting available data use up time because its interesting …
or
Let operational needs determine available data
Management determined that ‘data’ should support decisions at critical points of crop
production failure using a map based system
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Why maps?
• Most suited for managing large geographical and spatially complex units
• Bungulla operates 68 paddock “portfolios”• Can now be digitally interactive
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Critical points of Production failure – responsibilities for Jim (farm manager)
• Pre-plant operations – Weeds, moisture, crop option, fertiliser options, frost risk, supply line
• Planting – Prescription fertiliser, labour, equipment readiness
• Weed, pest and disease control – Link with Agronomists, application logistics
• Harvest & storage• Product supply• Staff deployment
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Data options for production• Soil (nutrient, pH, structure)• Climate (temp., RH, evaporation, light)• Water (soil moisture, irrigation, water flow)• Topography (drainage, erosion)• Vegetation (vigour, biomass, weeds)• Machinery operation (fertiliser, pesticide, yield)
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1 MANAGING NUTRITIONExample
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Yield maps
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Mean relative yield – normalised from historical data
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Stabilisation of yield pattern to check consistency
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Operate some field trials if required
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Fertiliser application to variable degrees of precision
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Adding information to a farm map
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Increasing Nitrogen Use Efficiency (NUE)
Old yield map
Modified Radiometric thorium section
Fertiliser prescription
Test yield results
constant
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2 MANAGING WEED CONTROLExample
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New potential technical applications: WEEDSEEKERS
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What it means to the farmerArea to be sprayed 264 hectares
Weeds Targeted
wild cotton, peach vine, milk thistle and
fleabane
Chemical mix 2.6l/ha (roundup max) + 4.0 l/ha (surpass)
Water rate 80 l/ha
Actual Usage 4.5%
Actual area sprayed 11.88 ha
Actual cost of chemical $583.30
Chemical cost normal spray $12,962.40
ACTUAL CHEMICAL SAVING $12,379.10
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Weed maps?
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3 INTER-ACTIVE RELATIONSHIPSExample
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What’s causing this???
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Critical Points of Production failure – responsibilities for (Brad J) owner
• Finance - Cash supply, stubble, crop options
• Environment (created externalities) – salinity, off-site movement of pollutants (drift & run-off)
• Climate (long term) – Rainfall, temperature
• Staff – maintain & train
• Personal
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Crop options
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1 MANAGING FINANCE DATAExample
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Sell to feed or keep stubbleHelps current cash flow but might compromise next crop
Forgoes present cash to supports next crop
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Gross margin maps: $ return by area
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2 MANAGING CONTAMINATED RUN-OFF
Example
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Evaluating environmental risks using Topography & vegetation
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Summary
• Management & Operations communicate comfortably with maps
• Operation concentrate on PROCESS with feedback
• Management concentrate on big picture outlook
• Australia farmers are capable of adapting but it’s a TEAM EFFORT not a brain injection process
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Thank you