managing sustainability transitions the dutch energy transition rené kemp presentation at sdrn...
TRANSCRIPT
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Managing sustainability transitions
The Dutch Energy transition
René Kemp
Presentation at SDRN meeting
London, 22 Sept, 2004
MERIT & DRIFT
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Contents
NMP4: the need for sustainability transitions
What is transition management Transition management in
practice. The example of sustainable energy policy
Conclusions
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Why do we need transitions? NMP4: persistent environmental problems
(climate change, biodiversity, depletion of resources, threats to human health)
require system change or transitions towards alternative systems of energy supply, transport, resource use, agriculture
existing policy is not enough (transitions require changes in policy)
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What is a transition?
Transition is a process in which something changes from one state to another (Collins Dictionary).
Societal transitions are transformation processes resulting in a new type of coherence (system logic) that constitutes the basis for further development
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A transition is the result of many changes and not a deterministic process (source: Butter et al., 2002)
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Transition phases
Take off
Breakthrough
Predevelopment
Stabilisation
Time
Magnitude of societal change
Rotmans, Kemp, van Asselt (2001)
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Transition management
…. is a deliberate effort to work towards a transition in a stepwise, adaptive manner, utilising
dynamics and visions
… is a model for governancein which different visions and routes are explored:
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Transition Management: bifocal instead of myopic
Political margins for
change
State of development of solutions
Societal goals
Sustainability visions
Transition management: oriented towards long-term sustainability goals and visions, iterative and reflexive (bifocal)
Existing policy process: short-term goals (myopic)
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Mathematically transition management = current policies + long-term vision + vertical and horizontal coordination of policies + portfolio-management + process management.
... is bottom-up and top-down, using strategic experiments and “frame condition” policies
… is a model for governance, relying on “self-organisation”
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Sustainable energy economy:– economically efficient (‘profit’)– reliable (‘people’)– minimal negative environmental and social
impacts (‘planet’) Long term goals, combined with Concrete short term steps …and successes...
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Areas of interest in the Energy transition
Policy Renewal
Biomass
Sustainable Rijnmond
New Gas
Eff. Energy Chains
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2050
Transition Paths
2020
Transition Paths
2008
Present
Visionary: Global Images
Strategic Vision: Concrete
Efficiency Biomass New Gas
Experiments
Research
Research
Experiments
Experiments
Go - No Go
More abstract
More concrete
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2050 Biomass 20-40% of primary energy supply ‘Vision’
2020‘Strategic goals’10-15% in power prod. 15-20% in traffic
2003 2 à 3 %
‘Transition Paths’
C. Biofuels
B. Pyrolysis
A. Gasification
ExpvE
OS
Exp
Exp EOS: experiments : R&D
The biomass transition
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Transition management is not a “megalomaniac” attempt to control the future
But an attempt at goal-oriented modulation, relying on variation and selection (through markets and public choice)
It is a model for governance in which system innovations are explored, in a stepwise manner
Conclusion
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“Policies for science and technology must always be a mixture of realism and idealism”
Chris Freeman (1991)
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1. The orientation to transition goals (less short-termism)
2. The orientation to learning and innovation (helps to overcome the preference for quick results, and policy reliance on technical fixes)
3. Alignment of different policy domains (helps to deal with fragmented policies)
4. Programmes for system innovation based on visions of sustainability
5. Opening up of policy process (less domination by vested interests)
What’s new about transition management?
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Ways in which transition management address the 5 key problems of SD policy
Dissent: agreeing on key performance parameters for functional systems
Distributed control: visions, long-term goals and programmes for system innovation
Short-term steps: strategic experiments and steps towards changing frame conditions
Danger of lock-in to suboptimal solutions: portfolios and adaptive policies
Political myopia: transition agendas, arenas, forgoing technical fixes
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Questions
To what extent is the UK involved in transition management?
Will the UK be more successful in reducing CO2 than NL but less successful in creating new energy business?