manhattan market report | q4 2015

New York City Market UpdateFourth Quarter 2015

MANHATTAN BROKERAGES

East Side | 38 East 61st Street | t: 212.606.7660

Downtown | 149 Fifth Avenue, 4th Floor | t: 212.431.2440

West Side | 2244 Broadway | t: 212.579.9300

400 East 59th Street, Trophy Penthouse | $16,000,000 | WEB: 0138132

sothebyshomes.com/nyc

http://www.sothebyshomes.com/nyc/sales/0138132

http://www.sothebyshomes.com/nyc

MANHATTAN MARKET | OVERVIEW

MANHATTAN OVERVIEW

UNDER $3M $3M TO $10M OVER $10M TOTAL

Q4 : 15 Q4 : 14 % Change Q4 : 15 Q4 : 14 % Change Q4 : 15 Q4 : 14 % Change Q4 : 15 Q4 : 14 % Change

Number of Closed Sales 2,660 2,874 -7% 470 351 34% 53 50 6% 3,183 3,275 -3%

Average Days on Market 77 85 -9%

Listing Discount 6% 7% -14%

Average Sales Price $1,131,000 $1,071,000 6% $5,021,000 $4,638,000 8% $19,546,000 $24,035,000 -19% $2,014,000 $1,812,000 11%

Median Sales Price $923,000 $850,000 9% $4,500,000 $4,015,000 12% $17,200,000 $16,281,000 6% $1,150,000 $980,000 17%

Listing Inventory Further detail on page 3 4,925 4,721 4%

Months of Supply 4.2 4.0 3%

CONDOS & CO-OPS OVERVIEW Fourth Quarter 2015 market sales prices were forced upward to record high market measures, influenced by a large increase of new construction closings. Condo closings accounted for 51% of total sales. More significantly, a greater share of those sales occurred in new construction projects. With 3,183 closed sales in the fourth quarter of 2015 (3% fewer than prior year), the overall average sales price was $2,014,000 showing an 11% increase over prior year. The overall median sales price also had a significant year-over-year increase of 17% to $1,150,000. In the analysis presented by three distinct price tiers – under $3M; $3M to $10M; and over $10M – the rising market price trend is most evident in the two lower tiers. For all properties sold under $3M, the average sales price was up 6% and the median sales price was higher by 9%. There were 2,660 closed sales under $3M in this quarter, accounting for 84% of the total market sales, however the quarter saw 7% fewer closed sales in this price tier as compared to the same quarter in 2014. In the next price tier, $3M to $10M, the average sales price showed an increase of 8% and a median sales price increase of 12%. There were 34% more sales this quarter over the prior year and units sold in this price tier accounted for approximately 15% of total sales. The top price tier (properties over $10M) is where we encountered a decrease in average sales price. With fewer record setting sale prices in the top tier of the market, the average sales price for unit sold over $10M dipped 19% while the median sales price increased marginally by 6%.

The average sales price of all recorded Manhattan sales in the fourth quarter of 2015 was $2,014,000

which is 11% higher than prior year and 16% over prior quarter. The median sales price gained 17%

from prior year and 15% from prior quarter. Both the average sales price and the median sales price are

record high measures for overall Manhattan prices.

AVERAGE and MEDIAN SALES PRICE

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Q3:15 Q4:15

Average Sales Price Median Sales Price

The 3,183 closed sales this quarter represented just 3% lower than prior year but 10% lower than the quarter before. Total inventory remains far below normalized supply levels of 8,000-9,000+/- listings. This inventory measure has been well under 6,000 units for 8 straight quarters.

NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES and INVENTORY

0

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Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Q3:15 Q4:15

# of Closed Sales Inventory

Sotheby’s International Realty Manhattan Brokerages


MANHATTAN MARKET | ABSORPTION RATE

Less than $1M $1M - $2M $2M - $4M $4M - $6M $6M - $10M $10M - $20M $20M+ TOTAL

Active Listing Inventory 1,467 1,132 1,019 460 405 295 147 4,925

Average Closed Sales / Month 636 266 171 50 30 13 4 1,010

Months of Supply per Price Category 2.3 4.3 6 9.2 13.5 22.7 36.8 4.2

CONDOS & CO-OPS (based on 6 months of closed sales 06.01.2015 - 11.30.2015)

The overall Manhattan absorption rate stands at 4.2 months. However, properties valued $6M or more have seen much higher absorption rates with inventory shortage existing only in the lower price tiers. The lower price segments have been experiencing consistent shortages of inventory with units under $1M at 2.3 months supply and units between $1M and $2M at 4.3 months supply. The top three price tiers have absorption rates signifying that buyers would have a clear advantage, particularly at the $20M+ price segment where there is nearly a three year supply of inventory at the current pace of sales. Top market price tiers remain where buyers have the most choice which has led to price reductions and concessions at new developments. The historic range of equilibrium for the market area is 9+/- months. The absorption rate is calculated by taking the total number of currently active listings and dividing by the average number of closed sales over the 6 month period.

NUMBER OF ACTIVE LISTINGS

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET & LISTING DISCOUNT

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET The total number of days a listing is on the active market before an offer is accepted. It is calculated by totaling the total days on market for every closed sale, and dividing the total days by the total number of closed sales.

LISTING DISCOUNTThe percent change between the original asking (listing) price of a home, and the final sales price of the home. It is calculated by subtracting the sales price from the original listing price, and dividing the result by the original listing price.

Q1 : 14 Q2 : 14 Q3 : 14 Q4 : 14 Q1 : 15 Q2 : 15 Q3 : 15 Q4 : 15

Average Days on Market 86 83 74 85 83 84 73 77

Listing Discount 6% 3% 6% 7% 6% 4% 4% 6%

ABSORPTION RATE

30%

23%

21%

9%

8%

6%3%

Less than $1M$1M - 2M$2M - $4M$4M - $6M$6M - $10M$10M - $20M$20M+

0

5

10

15

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25

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35

40

Less than$1M

$1M - 2M $2M - $4M $4M - $6M $6M -$10M

$10M -$20M

$20M+

Absorption Historical Equilibirum

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65

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90

Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Q3:15 Q4:15Average Days on Market Listing Discount



THE ULTRA LUXURY MARKETCO-OPS, CONDOS & TOWNHOUSES OVER $10MOver the fourth quarter of 2015 there were 62 ultra-luxury sales, 10% fewer sales than prior quarter and prior year. The average sales price in this market sector posted a slight gain of 5% over prior quarter but showed a decline of 18% over the prior year’s average of $23,927,000. The highest sale price this quarter was $45,000,000 for a penthouse duplex unit at 15 Central Park West.

Q1 : 14 Q2 : 14 Q3 : 14 Q4 : 14 Q1 : 15 Q2 : 15 Q3 : 15 Q4 : 15

Number of Closed Sales 62 74 75 69 75 49 69 62

Average Sales Price $16,638,000 $16,931,000 $17,912,000 $23,927,000 $22,138,000 $19,367,000 $18,733,000 $19,600,000

Highest Sales Price $51,000,000 $70,000,000 $71,300,000 $100,500,000 $91,500,000 $47,800,000 $37,940,000 $45,000,000

*Due to client confidentiality the final sales price cannot be disclosed.

41 East 70th Street

Last Asking: $35,000,000

Serena Boardman | 212.606.7611

NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES and AVERAGE SALES PRICE

SOTHEBY’S INTERNATIONAL REALTY - MANHATTAN SIGNIFICANT SALES

101 West 24th Street - Chelsea Stratus


Malcolm Beadling | 212.810.4995

22 East 78th Street


Nikki Field | 212.606.7669

$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

$30,000,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

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80

Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Q3:15 Q4:15

# of Closed Sales Average Sales Price



MANHATTAN MARKET | CO-OPS & CONDOS CO-OPSIn the fourth quarter of 2015, average co-op sales prices posted a 13% gain to $1,315,000 and the median sales price rose 6% to $750,000. The under $3M price bracket charted gains of 2% in average sales price and 4% in median sales price. For co-op units in the price tier ranging from $3M to $10M, the average sales price measure posted a 10% gain while the median sales price was 14% higher than prior year. Within the top tier co-op price bracket, over $10M, there were 10 closed sales posting an average sales price of $20,336,000 and a median sales price of $18,000,000.

CONDOSOverall, Manhattan condo sales showed gains with the average sales price rising 4% to $2,686,000; the average price per square foot climbed 6% higher to $1,708; and the median sales price rose 16% to $1,675,000. Within the three distinct price tiers, there is strength in lower prices and falling values on the high-end this quarter. For units over $10M, the average sales price declined 26%; the median sales price decreased 1%; and the average price per square foot fell 28%.

CO-OPSUNDER $3M $3M TO $10M OVER $10M TOTAL


Number of Closed Sales 1,454 1,689 -14% 108 107 1% 10 9 11% 1,571 1,805 -13%

Average Sales Price $894,000 $880,000 2% $5,061,000 $4,616,000 10% $20,336,000 $13,837,000 47% $1,315,000 $1,160,000 13%

Median Sales Price $700,000 $675,000 4% $4,515,000 $3,975,000 14% $18,000,000 $13,400,000 34% $750,000 $ 709,000 6%

CONDOSUNDER $3M $3M TO $10M OVER $10M TOTAL


Number of Closed Sales 1,206 1,185 2% 362 244 48% 43 41 5% 1,611 1,470 10%

Average Sales Price $1,410,000 $1,334,000 6% $4,997,000 $4,640,000 8% $19,524,000 $26,273,000 -26% $2,686,000 $2,578,000 4%

Average PPSF $1,466 $1,375 7% $2,279 $2,243 2% $3,738 $5,184 -28% $1,708 $1,618 6%

Median Sales Price $1,320,000 $1,200,000 10% $4,418,000 $4,073,000 8% $17,325,000 $17,500,000 -1% $1,675,000 $1,450,000 16%

NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES AVERAGE and MEDIAN SALES PRICE

NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES AVERAGE and MEDIAN SALES PRICE

0

500

1000

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2500

Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Q3:15 Q4:15# of Closed Sales

$0

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$1,200,000

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Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Q3:15 Q4:15Average Sales Price Median Sales Price

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Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Q3:15 Q4:15# of Closed Sales

$0

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$1,000,000

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$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Q3:15 Q4:15Average Sales Price Median Sales Price



NEIGHBORHOOD BREAKDOWNUPPER EAST SIDEnorth of 58th Street and south of 96th Street, Fifth Avenue to East End Avenue Upper East Side co-ops experienced a wide swing of changes as compared to the previous year with a 13% drop in closed sales, a 17% increase in average sales price, and a 1% decrease in median sales price. The average and median condo sales prices fell 7% and 11% respectively. With fewer new construction condo sales as compared to the previous year, condo prices were lower than prior record highs.

CO-OPS Q4 : 15 Q4 : 14 % Change

# Closed Sales 437 501 -13%

Average Sales Price $1,786,000 $1,529,000 17%

Median Sales Price $842,000 $850,000 -1%

CONDOS Q4 : 15 Q4 : 14 % Change

# Closed Sales 258 199 30%

Average Sales Price $2,307,000 $2,484,000 -7%

Median Sales Price $1,484,000 $1,660,000 -11%

UPPER WEST SIDEnorth of 58th Street and south of 110th Street, Central Park West to Riverside DriveThe total number of closed co-op sales on the Upper West Side in the fourth quarter of 2015 was 314, representing a decrease of 16% from prior year. Co-ops in this market area posted an average sales price of $1,375,000, a 7% gain over the last quarter of 2014. A major increase in condo closings, up 55% over prior year, also contributed to a significant spike in the average condo sales price. At an average sales price of $2,759,000, the condo measure was higher by 44%. This average and median condo market measures were influenced by over 100 new construction closings, particularly at 50 Riverside Drive and the closing of two units at 15 Central Park West for $35,000,000 and $45,000,000.




Median Sales Price $855,000 $822,000 4%




Median Sales Price $1,945,000 $1,380,000 41%

MIDTOWNnorth of 34th Street and south of 57th StreetThe average co-op sales price in this market area increased 3% to $872,000 while the median co-op price slipped 1% to $620,000. There were far more condo sales closed this quarter with 449 this quarter versus 288 prior year. Despite this increase in number of closed sales, there were far fewer ultra-luxury closings, resulting in a much lower average condo sales price of $2,175,000 as compared to $3,977,000. It should be noted that in the fourth quarter of 2014, the average sales price figure was strongly impacted by significant closings at ONE57. For example, in this quarter there were five closed sales at ONE57 with only one over $25,000,000 as compared to the same quarter last year which saw 15 sales at ONE57 with nearly all priced over $25,000,000.



Average Sales Price $872,000 $850,000 3%

Median Sales Price $620,000 $625,000 -1%



Average Sales Price $2,175,000 $3,977,000 -45%


UPTOWN north of 96th Street on the East Side and north of 110th Street on the West SideThe average sales price of co-op sales was higher by 9%, reaching $520,000. The median co-op sales price posted an increase of 15% to $460,000. Measures were also higher in the condo market with a 7% gain in the average sales price and 14% rise in the median condo sales price.











NEIGHBORHOOD BREAKDOWN

TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES AVERAGE SALES PRICE

DOWNTOWNsouth of 34th Street through TribecaThe 411 closed co-op sales in the fourth quarter of 2015 represented a decline of 18% as compared to prior year. However, co-op price measures were much higher with an 10% gain in the average sales price and an 11% gain in the median sales price. Huge gains were evident in the condo sales price with a 52% increase in the average sales price of a condo; and a 56% increase in the median condo sales price. Projects like The Greenwich Lane and 150 Charles Street, among others, had a significant number of closings this past quarter (note: many of these deals were procured 12-18 months ago). In the Downtown market, there were far fewer high-end, luxury condo units sold in the fourth quarter of 2014 than this quarter, resulting in the large sales price gains.









FINANCIAL DISTRICT | BATTERY PARK CITYThere were 145 condo units closed in the fourth quarter of 2015, a 3% improvement over prior year. This market area also had a substantially higher average condo sales price due to a higher percentage of new construction closings. The average sales price of $1,814,000 was a 39% increase while the median sales price remain largely unchanged at just over $1,500,000.









0

200

400

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800

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1400

Q3:13 Q4:13 Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15Upper East Side Upper West SideMidtown UptownDowntown Financial District / Battery Park City

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1400


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1400


$0

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$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Q3:15 Q4:15

Upper East Side Upper West SideMidtown UptownDowntown Financial District / Battery Park City



MARKET COMPARISONS

SOTHEBY’S INTERNATIONAL REALTY - ON THE MARKET, AROUND THE WORLD

Comparing the fourth quarter of 2014 and the fourth quarter of 2015, all three markets showed an increase in price per sq. ft. with San Francisco seeing the largest increase at 11.6%, Los Angeles at 7.4% and New York City at 5.6%. Comparing this quarter and last quarter New York City and Los Angeles price per sq. ft. increased 7.4% and 5.4% respectively, while San Francisco showed a small decline of 3.1%

ST. BARTHELEMY | $24,500,000

WEB: F7DXN6

St Barth Properties Sotheby’s International Realty

LONDON, ENGLAND | $6,620,568

WEB: LPDK7X

United Kingdom Sotheby’s International Realty

PARIS, FRANCE | $6,061,262

WEB: DCBPNB

Paris Ouest Sotheby’s International Realty

AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. | CONDOS ONLY

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Q3:15 Q4:15

New York City San Francisco Los Angeles


http://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/detail/180-l-1135-f7dxn6/villa-bel-esprit-other-st-barthelemy-bl-97133

http://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/detail/180-l-691-lpdk7x/curzon-square-london-en

http://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/detail/180-l-4291-dcbpnb/paris-8-triangle-dor-sublime-apartment-of-198-sqm-paris-pa-75017


A MESSAGE FROM OUR MANAGERS:

The New York City residential real estate market had a strong fourth quarter and a strong full year in 2015. According to the

Vanderbilt Appraisal Company, the average sales price increased a remarkable 11% over last year and the overall median sales

price was up an extraordinary 17%. These price increases were driven by low inventory at the lower price points resulting in

exciting bidding wars. If you are interested in buying a studio or one bedroom, be prepared to act swiftly. More people are

coming to New York City to experience the city that has it all and fewer are leaving . If you are ready to expand your “nest,” there

are many new condominiums filled with the latest amenities from resident spas to basketball courts about to hit the market.

It is also a great time to buy at the high-end and ultra-luxury (properties over $10M) price points, as we have seen a slight

softening with more units and longer days on the market. Within the ultra-luxury market, the fourth quarter of 2015 had 10%

fewer sales and prices were statistically lower as compared to the end of 2014 which included record closings at One57. Join us

and experience the exceptional residences on the market that await your personal touch: sothebyshomes.com/nyc. We look

forward to an active first quarter of 2016.

EAST SIDE MANHATTANEllie JohnsonBrokerage Managert: 212.606.7660 38 East 61st Street New York, New York 10065

DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN Diane LevineBrokerage Managert: 212.431.2440 149 Fifth Avenue, 4th Floor New York, New York 10010

WEST SIDE MANHATTAN Diane LevineBrokerage Managert: 212.579.9300 2244 BroadwayNew York, New York 10024

END NOTES

© MMXVI Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. All Rights Reserved. All information in this report is provided by Vanderbilt Appraisal Company and other third party reports. Since all final closed data for the current quarter had not been reported at the time this report was compiled, the available closed data was extrapolated in an attempt to approximate full results for the current quarter. Actual results may materially vary from the approximated results. This offering is subject to errors, omissions, changes including price or withdrawal without notice. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real estate brokers. We are happy to work with them and cooperate fully. Sotheby’s International Realty and the Sotheby’s International Realty logo are registered (or unregistered) service marks used with permission. Operated by Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Real estate agents affiliated with Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. are independent contractor sales associates and are not employees of Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Equal housing opportunity.

ONE57, 157 WEST 57TH STREET | $27,500,000 | WEB: 00110491 Nikki Field, 212.606.7669


http://sothebyshomes.com/nyc





ON THE MARKET

left to right from top to bottom:

METROPOLITAN MARKETS

NEW YORK, NY | Web: 00110466 | $5,200,000

SAN FRANCISCO, CA | Web: 0087635 | $5,500,000

HOUSTON, TX | Web: 1250301 | $5,499,000

RESORT MARKETS

PEBBLE BEACH, CA | Web: 0474307 | $5,895,000

PALM BEACH, FL | Web: 0076834 | $5,995,000

MONTECITO, CA | Web: 0632357 | $5,495,000

FOREIGN MARKETS

SPAIN | Web: NF2L59 | $5,584,178

FRANCE | Web: 5Q5HYV | $5,431,240

ISRAEL | Web: 9ZWTEE | $5,657,127

sothebysrealty.com

http://www.sothebyshomes.com/Monterey-Real-Estate/sales/0474307

http://www.sothebyshomes.com/palmbeach/sales/0076834

http://www.sothebyshomes.com/San-Francisco-Real-Estate/sales/0087635?agentid=undefined

http://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/int/filter-webid-9zwtee

http://www.sothebyshomes.com/Santa-Barbara-Real-Estate/sales/0632357

http://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/int/filter-webid-nf2l59

http://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/int/filter-webid-5q5hyv

http://www.sothebyshomes.com/nyc/sales/00110466?agentid=undefined

http://www.sothebyshomes.com/houston/sales/1250301?agentid=undefined

AUCTION CALENDAR FEB | MAR | APR | MAY 2016

RM Sotheby’s: ParisParis 03 Feb

Impressionist & Modern Art Evening SaleLondon 03 Feb

Contemporary Art Evening AuctionLondon 10 Feb

Finest & Rarest WinesNew York 27 Feb

WatchesLondon 08 Mar

Important Ceramics by Pablo PicassoLondon 05 Ap

20th Century Art / Middle EastLondon 18 Apr

Orfèvrerie, Boîtes en Or et Objets de VitrineParis 04 May

Paul Gauguin | Nature morte aux mangos et à la fleur d’hibiscusEstimate £2-3m

We invite you to explore our real estate listings at sothebyshomes.com and view the worldwide auction schedule at sothebys.com Enquiries +1 212 606 7000. Sotheby’s 72 & York Register now at sothebys.com SOTHEBY’S, INC. LICENSE NO. 1216058. © SOTHEBY’S, INC. 2015

http://www.sothebys.com/

manhattan market report | q4 2015

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