March 1 – March 15

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CONTENTS

Foreword (General Observations)………………………………………....3

Americas………………………………………………………………………..5

Arms Control and Disarmament……………………………………………9

China and East Asia…………………………………………………………14

Europe………………………………………………………………………….16

Middle East & West Asia…………………………………………………….21

South Asia……………………………………………………………………..29

United Nations…………………………………………………………………..34

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Area Briefs: 1-15 March 2017

General Observations

Pakistan

An old controversy was stirred up again in Pakistan regarding the mass issuance of visas

under the previous regime to US citizens, especially undercover agents and US Special

Ops and CIA personnel. Former Ambassador to the US, Husain Haqqani admitted, in an

article for the Washington Post, that he had gotten these visas issues without military

clearance or knowledge. He also took credit for aiding the Obama Administration in the

anti-bin Laden operation without any help from Pakistan’s military intelligence or

knowledge. The question that has now arisen is how far the civilian government allowed

this massive access to CIA operatives and how much was the civilian leadership in the

know regarding the bin Laden operation? If Haqqani is to be believed, the then president,

Asif Zardari approved Haqqani’s actions. Haqqani also made what has become his ritual

accusation against the Pakistan military – that they were suspect of sympathizing with

Islamic militants.

Tensions continue along the Pak-Afghan international border even as talks between the

two states took place in London through UK acting as an intermediary. On 7 March,

firing from across the Afghan side of the border at three crossing points, led to the death

of 5 Pakistani soldiers. The Pakistani forces responded and stated they had killed 15

suspected terrorists.

According to the 2017 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report by the US State

Department Pakistan loses $10 billion every year through money laundering. Corruption

and money laundering have come to the fore in Pakistan’s political narrative in the wake

of the Panama Papers.

The 13th ECO Summit concluded on 1 March in Islamabad. It focused on trade and

regional connectivity and for Pakistan it was a reassertion that it was far from isolated

diplomatically despite the Modi government’s massive campaign against Pakistan

globally.

The issue of extending military courts through another constitutional amendment headed

towards resolution when there appeared to be a consensus amongst the major

parliamentary political parties for revival of the earlier blueprint that had been approved

two years earlier – with a few safeguard additions, including a parliamentary oversight

committee for the judicial reforms and other components of the National Action Plan that

had not been operationalised so far.

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International

India conducted a series of weapons test in the first fortnight of March. On 1 March it

tested its Advanced Area Defence interceptor missile as part of developing its Ballistic

Missile Defence system. On 11 March it successfully tested an enhanced land-attack

version of its BrahMos cruise missile with a longer range. Both Pakistan and India have

been testing their improved weapon delivery systems while tensions remain high long the

LoC and Working Boundary.

The BJP headed to electoral victory in state elections in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

While the Congress Party had some electoral success, it is the BJP that has strengthened

itself further as a result of state elections.

Kabul saw yet another terrorist attack on 8 March – this time on a military hospital.

Daesh claimed responsibility for the attack even as the Afghan Taliban distanced

themselves from it. It took the Afghan security forces 6 hours to counter the attack

carried out by four terrorists dressed as doctors.

Pilgrims, primarily from Iraq, were the target of a terrorist attack in Damascus on 11

March, where twin bombings killed 59 people.

War atrocities continue to haunt the Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthis in Yemen.

Civilians have been targeted in air attacks by the coalition forces and on 9 March

Amnesty International accused the coalition of targeting civilian areas with banned

cluster munitions. The incident Amnesty referred to, took place on 15 February when

three residential areas plus agricultural land were targeted in the northern Yemen

province of Saada. Earlier in December 2016 the Saudi-led coalition had acknowledged

the use of cluster bombs (British made) but had stated that it had now stopped using

them.

In an intriguing statement, given the record of Trump’s anti-Muslim rhetoric, Saudi

Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, in a meeting with President Trump at the

White House, referred to the US President as a “true friend of the Muslims”.

--- Dr Shireen M Mazari

Director General

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AMERICAS

Domestic

According to House of Representatives Intelligence Committee Chairman, Devin Nunes,

on March 15, he had seen no evidence that the Obama Administration wiretapped Trump

Tower during the 2016 presidential campaign.

The statement increased pressure on FBI Director James Comey to provide evidence supporting

or refuting President Donald Trump’s claim. “We don’t have any evidence that that took place,”

said Nunes. “I don't think there was an actual tap of Trump Tower.” Trump had made the claim

on Twitter on March 4, 2017 without providing evidence. Representatives of former Democratic

President Barack Obama denied the allegation. Meanwhile the top Democrat on the House

Intelligence Committee, Adam Schiff, said Comey would be asked about wiretap evidence at a

public hearing next week. “It deeply concerns me that the president would make such an

accusation without basis,” he said.

According to media reports on March 15, a leaked partial tax return shows that US

President Donald Trump paid $38m in tax on more than $150m income in 2005.

US TV network MSNBC released the two pages of tax return on March 13, 2017. The returns

showed Trump wrote off $103m in losses. It gave no details on income sources however.

According to the White House publishing the tax return was against the law. Trump had refused

to release his tax returns during the election campaign, breaking with a long-held tradition.

On March 14, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Virginia declared states of

emergency following a huge winter storm and heavy snow.

Blizzard warnings were issued from eastern Pennsylvania to southwest Maine. Schools were

closed and thousands of flights cancelled. The conditions caused German Chancellor Angela

Merkel to postpone a trip to Washington to meet President Trump.

According to Reuters on March 14, fourteen million Americans would lose medical

insurance by 2018 under a Republican plan to dismantle Obamacare.

The US Congressional Budget Office forecast that 24 million more people would be uninsured in

2026 if the plan being considered by the House of Representatives to replace the 2010 Affordable

Care Act were adopted. Obamacare expanded insurance to about 20 million Americans.

On March 12, senator Elizabeth Warren accused President Donald Trump of firing

prominent prosecutor Preet Bharara to install “cronies.”

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Warren warned of “a massive fight” in the Senate over his nominees for new US attorneys. On

March 11, 2017 Donald Trump fired Bharara the US attorney of the southern district of

Manhattan. The prosecutor had pursued corruption cases against members of both the Republican

and Democratic parties. In November 2016, Bharara met with Trump and his nominee for attorney

general, Jeff Sessions, and said he had “agreed to stay on.” On March 10, 2017, Sessions

demanded the resignation of 46 US attorneys who were appointed during the prior presidential

administration. Many Obama era federal prosecutors had already left their positions, but almost

forty-eight who stayed on have now been asked to leave “in order to ensure a uniform transition.”

According to CNN on March 10, the US economy added 235,000 jobs during President

Trump’s first full month.

The unemployment rate decreased to 4.7% from 4.8% during February 2017, a huge

improvement from 2009, when unemployment peaked at 10% after the financial crisis.

On March 15, US District Court Judge Derrick Watson in Hawaii blocked President

Trump’s executive order barring foreign nationals from six majority-Muslim nations from

entering the United States.

The decision came hours before the order was due to go into effect on March 16, 2017. The

decision temporarily halted the Trump Administration’s attempt to pause all refugee resettlement

for 120 days and block citizens of Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen from entering

the US for 90 days. Watson argued that the ban would cause “irreparable injury” by violating

First Amendment protection against religious discrimination. According to the 43-page ruling

any “reasonable, objective observer” taking into account the context of the Executive Order

would conclude it “was issued with a purpose to disfavour a particular religion.” Earlier on

March 10, several US states had launched legal challenges against President Donald Trump’s

March 6, 2017 revised travel ban on people from six mainly Muslim countries. Although the new

order continued to impose a 90-day ban on travelers, it removed Iraq from the list. Defence

Secretary Jim Mattis had requested the redaction, fearing the ban would hamper coordination to

defeat the Islamic State. It also exempted permanent residents and current visa holders, and

removed language offering preferential status to persecuted religious minorities, a provision

widely interpreted as favoring other religious groups over Muslims. It also reversed an indefinite

ban on Syrian refugees replacing it with a 120-day freeze requiring review and renewal. New

York has argued that the new directive is a ban on Muslims. Washington state has termed it as

being harmful to the state. Oregon and Massachusetts later also joined. The ban was to begin on

March 16, 2017.

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On March 6, the US temporarily suspended fast track processing of H-1B visas, affecting

many foreign workers.

H-1B visas allow skilled workers to come to the US temporarily. They are in high demand,

particularly in the Silicon Valley and the medical sector, and are allocated via lottery. It can take

more than six months for an application to be reviewed. Premium processing allows applicants to

pay an extra fee ($1,225) to ensure a response within 15 days. The US Citizenship and Immigration

Services (USCIS) said it was putting the facility on hold from April 3, 2017 to clear a backlog in

processing of H-1B visas. However, observers fear the suspension is a first step towards the Trump

Administration clamping down on this type of immigration.

On March 4, a pro Trump rally in Berkeley, California turned violent prompting several

arrests.

The Berkeley march was part of a nationwide campaign as thousands of Trump supporters

convened near New York’s Trump Tower, at the Washington Monument and in numerous other

cities across the US. The “March 4 Trump” demonstrations were organised in support of the

new president. The rallies were organised to demonstrate unity in the face of what organisers

called “a seditious fringe” to sabotage Donald Trump’s vision for the US. Rallies

were scheduled in some 50 cities, including Nashville, Phoenix, Boston, Denver, Miami, and St.

Paul, and Berkeley. In several cities, the rallies were met by counter-demonstrations and some

arrests.

International

On March 12, US carrier USS Carl Vinson joined US-South Korean drills prompting

North Korea to vow merciless strikes.

According to North Korea the arrival of the US strike group in the seas off the east of the Korean

peninsula was part of a “reckless scheme” to attack it. The North’s state news agency KCNA

warned, “If they infringe on the DPRK’s sovereignty and dignity even a bit, its army will launch

merciless ultra-precision strikes from ground, air, sea and underwater.”

On March 8, top generals from Turkey, the US and Russia met to discuss developments in

Syria and Iraq to prevent “the risk of a conflict” during their fight against ISIL.

Hulusi Akar, Turkish chief of staff; Joseph Dunford, US chairman of the joint chiefs of staff; and

Valery Gerasimov, Russian chief of general staff, met in the southern Turkish city of Antalya.

“Common issues relating to regional security, in particular Syria and Iraq, are being discussed

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at the meeting,” the Turkish army said in a statement, without giving further detail. The Russian

defence ministry said, “A joint discussion on security issues in Syria and Iraq is planned.”

Bomb threats against Jewish community centres (JCCs) across the United States and

Canada forced lockdowns and evacuations on March 7.

Threats were sent via phone and email to JCCs in New York, Wisconsin, Illinois and Florida.

Centres in Toronto and elsewhere in Ontario also said they were threatened. US federal

authorities have been investigating a surge of threats against Jewish organisations, including

more than 100 hoax bomb threats in five separate incidents during January and February 2017.

On March 2, President Donald Trump said he wants a military buildup of more ships and

planes to “project American power in distant lands.”

Trump has proposed $54 billion increase in US defence spending, boosting the Pentagon budget

to $603 billion, and said he wanted to launch the biggest military buildup in American history to

make up for what he called “depleted armed forces.”

Latin America

On March 14, Brazil’s top prosecutor has asked the Supreme Court to open 83 new

investigations into politicians as part of a long-running corruption probe involving state

oil giant Petrobras.

The names were mentioned in plea bargain testimony of former executives of construction firm

Odebrecht, but have not been made public. It is unclear if they include ministers in President

Michel Temer’s government. Prosecutor General Rodrigo Janot also asked for the names to be

made public, and that the Supreme Court sends 211 other requests to lower courts. Under

Brazilian law, cabinet ministers, senators and lower house lawmakers can only be tried in the

Supreme Court, where cases can take years to come to trial.

On March 15, the Venezuelan government warned it would expropriate bakeries that fail

to abide by new government regulations aimed at tackling bread shortages.

Due to severe shortages of basic goods, Venezuelans often have to queue for hours to buy essential

items. According to the government the shortages are caused by an “economic war.” Venezuela

does not produce wheat and relies on wheat imports, which are then sent to local mills to be ground

and distributed. The government accuses bakers of using the flour allocated to them to bake

pastries rather than simple baguette-style bread in order to maximise their profits.

--- Amina Afzal

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ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT

On March 14, Sartaj Aziz, Advisor to Pakistan’s Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs,

reaffirmed the country’s commitment not to transfer weapons of mass destruction

(WMD) to state or non-state actors.

Addressing a regional conference in Islamabad on the implementation of United Nations

Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1540, Aziz said that Pakistan was a responsible nuclear

state and would continue to work with the international community to prevent non-state actors

acquiring WMD. The country has taken a wide range of legal and organisational measures for

the implementation of its commitments. UNSC Resolution 1540, adopted in 2004, requires all

states to implement measures aimed at preventing non-state actors from acquiring nuclear,

biological, or chemical weapons, related materials, and their means of delivery. During the

conference, Aziz also stressed on “striking a balance between advancing the goals of non-

proliferation and facilitating access of developing countries to strategic and dual use goods,

materials and technologies for peaceful purposes under appropriate safeguards.” Highlighting

Pakistan’s strong credentials for Nuclear Suppliers Group’s (NSG) membership, he said the NSG

should have transparent and non-discriminatory criteria for the candidature of states that are

not party to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT). Pakistan had formally applied for NSG

membership in May 2016. The conference was organised by Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign

Affairs in collaboration with the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs. Participants from 13

countries and representatives of the 1540 Committee Group of Experts, international

organisations including the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Organisation for the

Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) and Interpol attended the conference.

On March 12, Pakistan inducted Chinese-built Low to Medium Altitude Air Defence

System (LOMADS), LY-80, into its army’s air defence system.

Chief of Army Staff Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa was the chief guest at the induction ceremony. He

said “LOMADS would enhance army’s capability to respond to current and emerging air defence

threats.” LY-80 is a Chinese surface-to-air mobile air defence system capable of tracking and

destroying a variety of aerial targets at longer ranges while flying at low and medium altitude.

On March 11, India successfully test-fired an enhanced version of the BrahMos

supersonic cruise missile with an extended range from the integrated test range at

Balasore off the Odisha coast.

According to India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), the land-attack

version of the missile launched from the mobile launcher at an electronic target successfully met

all test parameters. Sudhir Mishra, BrahMos Aerospace chief, stated, “With the successful test

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firing of BrahMos extended range missile, the Indian Armed Forces will be able to knock down

enemy targets far beyond the 400 kilometres.” The earlier range of the missile was 290

kilometres. The technology upgrade of the BrahMos cruise missile came after India attained full

membership of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) in June 2016, which removed

caps on the range of the missile. It is a two-stage missile, one being solid and other being the

liquid propellant, capable of carrying a warhead of 300 kg. The missile has already been

inducted into the Army and Navy. Its air and submarine launch versions are still in the final

stage of trial.

On March 10, China’s state-run China Central Television (CCTV) reported that the

People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has inducted an unknown number of

Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter aircraft.

The induction of fifth generation stealth aircraft armed with long-range missiles, Chengdu J-20,

represents a leap forward in China’s ability to project power in Asia. The aircraft made its

public debut at the Zhuhai Air Show in southern China in November 2016. The J-20 is built by

Chengdu Aerospace Corporation which is also manufacturing China’s second fifth-generation

radar-evading stealth fighter jet called the FC-31, previously known as the J-31.

According to Fars news agency on March 9, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)

successfully test-fired a Sea-Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM), Hormoz 2, in the first

week of March 2017.

Fox News reported on March 6 that Iran launched two ballistic missiles from its

Revolutionary Guard Corps bases in southern Iran on March 4 and 5, 2017.

The first missile fired on March 4 missed its target while the second one fired on March 5

successfully destroyed a floating barge 250 kilometres away. The targets of both the missiles

were located in the Gulf of Oman. Fateh-110 ballistic missile has a new active-seeker that helps

it in correctly locating its target in the sea. Three days later Iran’s Fars news agency reported

that Iran has also successfully tested its naval ballistic missile. Gen Amir Ali Hajizadeh,

commander of the IRGC’s Aerospace Force, stated that the missile destroyed its target from a

distance of 250 kilometres. He also said that Hormoz 2 is capable of destroying moving targets

at sea with high precision at ranges up to 300 kilometres.

On March 9, Amnesty International accused the Saudi-led coalition of attacking

residential areas with banned cluster munitions in Yemen.

Amnesty International noted that the Saudi-led coalition used Brazilian manufactured munitions

in an attack on February 15, 2017 on three residential districts and agricultural land in Yemen’s

northern province of Saada. The organisation also said that the coalition used cluster munitions

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in October 2015 and May 2016. Lynn Maalouf, research director at Amnesty’s Beirut regional

office, indicated that “the coalition wrongly justifies its use of banned munitions by mere

claiming that it is working under the principles of international law, despite concrete evidence of

the human cost to civilians caught up in the conflict.” Amnesty International called upon the

Saudi-led coalition to immediately stop using cluster munitions and urged Brazil to join the

Convention on Cluster Munitions. The Saudi-led coalition had acknowledged in December 2016

the use of British-made cluster bombs and had claimed that it had stopped using them.

The Wall Street Journal reported on March 8 that in 2016 North Korean agents tried to

sell a form of lithium metal to unnamed international buyers.

Lithium metal is an important material used for making miniaturised nuclear weapons. The

report did not provide further details on the attempted sale which is documented in the UN Panel

of Experts’ Report released in March 2017. The UN report has warned that North Korea would

not stop at anything to advance its nuclear and missile programmes. US Congressional officials

said that the UN report has enhanced the concerns regarding North Korea’s growing nuclear

programme and the proliferation threat. Nuclear experts consider Pyongyang’s lithium

enrichment an evidence of North Korea’s increased efforts towards miniaturising the nuclear

warhead to be fitted on ballistic missiles.

On March 7, the US Pacific Command started deploying the first elements of its

advanced Terminal High Altitude Area Defence system (THAAD) in South Korea,

implementing the July 2016 joint US-South Korea decision of deploying defence

capability in the country.

Pacific Commander Admiral Harry Harris stated, “Continued provocative actions by North

Korea, including its recent launch of multiple missiles, only confirm the prudence of our alliance

decision to deploy THAAD to South Korea.” According to Pacom officials, THAAD deployment

contributes to a layered missile defence system and it would enhance South Korea’s security

against North Korea’s ballistic missile threats. The officials also said that the THAAD is a

defensive capability that poses no threat to other countries in the region. However, China objects

to the THAAD deployment, saying that the anti-missile defence system’s far-reaching radar can

penetrate its territory. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said that China was

resolutely opposed to THAAD deployment and, therefore, the country would take necessary steps

to protect its security interests. Chinese authorities have also closed 39 retail outlets of South

Korea’s Lotte group in China, which agreed to provide one of its golf courses in southern South

Korea as the site of THAAD. South Korea’s defence ministry confirmed the arrival of the first

batch of THAAD launchers but did not confirm how many.

According to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on March 6, North Korea

launched four ballistic missiles from Tongchang County in North Pyongan province.

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The three missiles landed within Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) after travelling around

1000 kilometres and reaching an altitude of 260 kilometres. KCNA said that the launch was

aimed at assessing the “process of handling nuclear warheads” and the “capabilities of

Hwasong artillery units of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) Strategic Force to carry out a

military operation swiftly.” Though KCNA did not provide more details on the missile type,

South Korea’s Joint Chief of Staff (JCS) said that North Korea had launched a variant of Scud

missiles. North Korea said that the ballistic missile launch exercise was conducted in response to

annual joint military drills by South Korea and the US that began on March 1, 2016. Japanese

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe condemned the launch of ballistic missiles and said that this clearly

shows Pyongyang had entered a new stage of threat.

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reported on March 4 that Iran conducted a successful test of

the S-300 air defence system that the country purchased from Russia.

The drill, named Damavand, was conducted to assess the performance of Russian-made S-300

air defence system against a vast range of aerial targets. The missile defence test was conducted

under the supervision of Iran’s Air Defence Commander Brigadier General Farzad Esmaili. He

informed reporters that an interceptor missile fired from a transporter erector launcher (TEL)

successfully destroyed its target. He also announced that the S-300 air defence system was now

fully operational. The deal between Iran and Russia to buy the S-300 system was signed in 2007.

However, it was suspended by Russia in 2010 owing to a UN ban on arms sales to Iran. The deal

was revived in January 2016, following the implementation of the nuclear agreement signed

between Iran and the major world powers.

According to BBC on March 3, the International Red Cross (ICRC) stated that at least

twelve civilians were injured in Mosul from chemical weapons.

Robert Mardini, the Red Cross Middle East director, noted that the victims' symptoms including

blisters, redness in the eyes, irritation, vomiting and coughing suggested exposure to a blistering

chemical agent. He said that civilians were injured in two separate incidents when mortar fire

hit houses in east Mosul. Though it is not clear yet who fired the weapons, it is being considered

that Da'esh has fired them from west Mosul since the area is held by the group. Da'esh is

suspected of making and using crude chemical weapons during conflicts in territory it controls in

both Iraq and Syria. The attack is the first recorded use of the weapons in the battle for Mosul.

According to the UK-based IHS Conflict Monitor, Da'esh is suspected of using chemical

weapons on at least 52 occasions since 2014. The use of chemical weapons is banned under

International law.

On March 1, India successfully tested its indigenously developed interceptor missile

Advanced Area Defence (AAD) from Abdul Kalam Island off the coast of Odisha in the

Bay of Bengal.

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According to India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), all the mission

objectives were successfully met. The interceptor missile destroyed the incoming target Prithvi

ballistic missile launched from the integrated test range at Chandipur. India’s Ministry of

Defence said, “The weapon system radars tracked the target and provided the initial guidance to

the interceptor which could precisely home-in on to the target and destroy it in the endo-

atmospheric layer." The interceptor is an endo-atmospheric missile capable of targeting missiles

at an altitude of 15 to 25 kilometres. The successful test of the AAD interceptor missile was

another step towards making India’s two-layered Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system,

incorporating both low-altitude (endo-atmospheric) and high-altitude (exo-atmospheric)

interceptor missiles. On February 11, 2017, India tested a high-altitude interceptor missile, the

Prithvi Defence Vehicle (PDV) that hit its target at an altitude of 97 kilometres. PDV is designed

for engaging targets in the exo-atmospheric region altitudes above 50 kilometres. India has been

working on its BMD system since 1999. The system has not been tested so far in an integrated

mode, using both low and high-altitude interceptor missiles.

--- Moiz Khan

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CHINA & EAST ASIA

China

On March 15, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said that Beijing does not want to see a trade

war with the US and urged talks between both sides to achieve common ground.

The Chinese premier also stressed that the two countries should strengthen dialogue to resolve

differences and expressed the hope of bright prospects for Sino-US ties. The remarks came as the

first meeting between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping is

scheduled in April 2017.

During the annual session of the National People’s Congress (NPC) on March 10,

Chinese President, Xi Jinping said “the ‘great wall of iron’ to safeguard national unity,

ethnic solidarity and social stability should be fortified in China’s Xinjiang region”.

President Xi’s remarks came in the wake of the upsurge in violence in the country’s Xinjiang

province. Earlier in February 2017, Daesh militant group released a video showing Uyghur

fighters fighting along with Daesh in Syria and threatening to come to China to “spill rivers of

blood as revenge on behalf of the oppressed”.

On March 4, Fu Ying, spokesperson for the 12th annual session of the National People’s

Congress (NPC) said that China’s defence budget for 2017 will increase by about 7%.

According to Ying, the increase is in line with China’s economic development and defence needs.

The new increase may well be the country’s slowest defence budget rise in a decade. In 2009, the

figure was about 15%. The decision follows US President Donald Trump’s proposed plan for a

10% boost in US military spending during 2017, and growing concerns in China about potential

disputes with the US over the South China Sea.

On March 3, Geng Shuang, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, issued a formal

warning to India saying, “China is gravely concerned over information that India has

granted permission to the Dalai Lama to visit Arunachal Pradesh,” and added that it

would cause “serious damage to peace and stability of the border region and China–India

relations”.

In a related development on March 9, India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA),

spokesperson, Gopal Banglay said that the government has no “say” in Dalai Lama’s

travel “within India and no political meaning should be attached to them as such”.

China terms the Tibetan spiritual leader a “dangerous separatist.” Meanwhile, India insists that

the Dalai Lama will make a religious trip to Arunachal Pradesh in April 2017, and as a secular

democracy it would not stop him from traveling to India. Observers in India say that the Dalai

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Lama’s visit to India shows a more assertive stance by the BJP government, whose relations with

China are already under strain.

On March 8, Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi warned of ‘head-on collision,’ between

North Korea and the US, calling on both sides to exercise restraint in order to avert a

security crisis.

Wang also called for a halt in North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme, which he said was

being pursued “in violation of UN Security Council resolutions”. He cautioned the US against

the deployment of Terminal High Altitude Area Defence system (THAAD), in South Korea. The

warning came soon after North Korea fired four ballistic missiles towards the Sea of Japan,

three of which dropped in Japanese territorial waters. Wang Yi also called on the US and South

Korea to ease tensions in the region by suspending annual joint military exercises, in exchange

for Pyongyang halting its nuclear programme.

South Korea

On March 9, South Korean President, Park Geun-Hye was fired by the country’s

constitutional court, as it upheld her impeachment by parliament over her role in a

corruption scandal involving close friend, Choi Soon-sil.

The decision follows months of protests in Seoul against Park Geun-Hye. Park has also lost her

presidential immunity and could face criminal charges over bribery, extortion and abuse of

power. Meanwhile, the country’s Election Commission announced that fresh elections would be

held on May 9, 2017. South Korea’s legislature passed a motion for Park’s impeachment on

December 9, 2016.

Malaysia

On March 4, Malaysia expelled North Korea’s ambassador, Kang Chol, giving him 48

hours to leave the country as tensions mount between the two sides over the assassination

of Kim Jong-nam, half-brother of North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un.

Kim Jong-nam was living in exile in Macau and was killed by a toxic nerve agent in Malaysia on

February 24, 2017. Following the incident, Malaysia summoned Chol, cancelled a visa-free

travel deal with North Korea and recalled its ambassador to Pyongyang. South Korean and US

officials have said they believe North Korean agents assassinated Kim Jong Nam. However,

North Korea has denied any role in Jong-nam’s killing.

---Muhammad Abdul Qadeer

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EUROPE

According to initial exit polls on March 15, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s party has

won the most seats in parliamentary elections.

Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s centre-right VVD party and the Freedom Party (PVV) headed by

Geert Wilders dominate the race. Wilders is running on an anti-immigration platform. According

to Rutte, the election is an opportunity for voters to “beat the wrong sort of populism.” Wilders

has pledged to take the Netherlands out of the EU, close all mosques and ban the Quran. His

Freedom Party (PVV) had initially been leading in opinion polls but recent polls suggest his

support may be dwindling. The vote is the first of three crucial elections in the EU. France goes

to the polls in April-May 2017 to elect a new president while Germany is due to hold a general

election in September 2017.

On March 14 a senior European Commission official in Brussels said that an independent

Scotland would have to apply to join the EU.

According to observers the announcement may complicate Nicola Sturgeon’s plans for a second

independence referendum. Referring to the position adopted by former Commission President José

Manuel Barroso, the spokesman said that any newly independent country would have to negotiate

to join.

On March 14, Polish MEP Janusz Korwin-Mikke was suspended for 10 days and will lose

allowance for 30 days for saying women are less intelligent than men.

During a debate at the European parliament on March 3, 2017 Mikke argued that women “must

earn less than men because they are weaker, smaller and less intelligent.” The parliament’s rules

ban defamatory, racist or xenophobic language or behaviour. The Socialists and Democrats

(S&D) group urged Parliament President Antonio Tajani to sanction the Polish MEP for the

“shameful” comments. Tajani apologised to anyone hurt or offended by the outburst. “I will not

tolerate such behaviour, in particular when it comes from someone who is expected to discharge

his duties as a representative of the peoples of Europe with due dignity,” he said. “By offending

all women, the MEP displayed contempt for our most fundamental values.”

According to a March 14 ruling by the European Court of Justice (ECJ), workplace bans

on the wearing of “any political, philosophical or religious sign” including headscarves do

not constitute direct discrimination.

This is the Court’s first ruling on the wearing of headscarves at work and was prompted by the

case of a receptionist in Belgium who was fired for wearing a headscarf to work. The issues of

17

Muslim dress and the integration of immigrant communities have featured prominently in debates

across Europe. Amnesty International said the rulings were “disappointing” and “opened a

backdoor to... prejudice.”

On March 14, French prosecutors placed presidential candidate Francois Fillon under

formal investigation over an alleged diversion of public funds.

A former prime minister, Fillon was the favourite to win the upcoming presidential elections. He

has now slipped behind far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen and centrist Emmanuel

Macron. Fillon was placed under formal investigation over suspicions that he arranged for his

wife Penelope to be paid out of public funds for work as his parliamentary assistant, work that she

did not actually do. He is also being investigated over payments made to his children Marie and

Charles while he was a senator. Fillon said his children were paid as lawyers, for specific tasks.

However both his children were not qualified lawyers at the time.

On March 13, British Prime Minister Teresa May’s government “secured unrestricted

authority” to negotiate Brexit.

In another related development on March 13, Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon

demanded a fresh referendum on Scottish independence.

May’s Brexit bill was approved by both Houses of Parliament, paving the way for the prime

minister to trigger article 50 by the end of March. Peers accepted the supremacy of the House of

Commons after MPs overturned amendments aimed at guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens in

the UK and giving parliament a “meaningful vote” on the final Brexit deal. The decision came

after a short period of “ping pong” when the legislation bounced between the two houses of

parliament as a result of disagreement over issues. Meanwhile, Scottish First Minister, Nicola

Sturgeon acknowledged that her country had rejected independence during a referendum just

three years ago. However she said the country found itself at “hugely important crossroads”

because of Brexit.

On March 13, Several EU leaders criticised Turkey, after differences emerged over the

Turkish government’s attempts to hold rallies in European countries.

President Erdogan accused Germany and the Netherlands of “Nazism” after officials in both

countries blocked Turkish rallies. Dutch PM Mark Rutte termed the comments “unacceptable”

and the German foreign minister expressed hope that Turkey would “return to its senses”.

Denmark’s Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen announced his decision to postpone a meeting

with his Turkish counterpart, PM Binali Yildrim, saying he was concerned about democratic

principles being under “great pressure” in Turkey. He said, “With the current Turkish attacks on

18

Holland the meeting cannot be seen separated from that.”

On March 12, Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) Enda Kenny vowed to lobby President

Donald Trump about the fate of numerous unregistered Irish immigrants living in the US.

Kenny said that undocumented Irish immigrants wanted to remain in the US. He was speaking in

Philadelphia at the beginning of the taoiseach’s annual St Patrick’s Day trip. Given the increasing

global focus on President Trump’s immigration policies, Kenny’s efforts to press Trump would

draw much interest in the coming days.

The UK Government’s Communication Head Quarter (GCHQ) warned politicians on

March 12 that attacks by Russian hackers could threaten British democracy.

The agency’s computer security chief wrote to political parties offering advice on preventing

hacks. In a letter, Ciaran Martin, chief executive of GCHQ’s National Cyber Security Centre

(NCSC) warned, “This is not just about the network security of political parties’ own systems.

Attacks against our democratic processes go beyond this and can include attacks on parliament,

constituency offices, think tanks and pressure groups and individuals’ email accounts.” Earlier

in February 2017 Martin had warned that Britain had been targeted with 188 attempted high-level

hacks in the previous three months, “many of which threatened national security.”

During a visit by Matteo Salvini leader of the anti-immigrant Northern League party on

March 11, Italian police clashed with protesters in Naples.

The protesters were marching in opposition to the Northern League’s anti-EU policies. The party

seeks to gain support in the region. The demonstrations in the city were largely peaceful, but

violence broke out after a small group of masked individuals threw bottles and other objects at

police.

Notwithstanding an attempt by his home country Poland to oust him, Donald Tusk was re-

elected as president of the European Council on March 9.

The twenty seven to one vote gave Tusk another two-and-a-half-year term in office. Tusk is a

former Prime Minister from a rival party. According to the Polish government Tusk violated his

mandate by interfering in domestic politics. Polish Prime Minister Beata Szydlo said she would

not sign the Summit’s final statement in protest. “Poland has a right to veto the conclusions and

Poland is exercising that right,” she said. She added that Tusk “does not have the support of his

home country that’s sufficient reason for him not to be appointed.”

On March 7, France, Germany, Italy and Spain supported the idea of a multi-speed EU.

19

“Unity does not mean uniformity,” French President Francois Hollande said. He was hosting the

other leaders in the Versailles Palace. The EU Commission has also accepted that projects do not

have to involve all EU members. EU leaders are now focusing on a strategy of deeper co-operation

albeit with the possibility of different member states joining common projects at times that would

suit them.

On March 6, the French company PSA Group struck a 2.2bn euro deal to buy General

Motors’ European unit, including Vauxhall.

GM Europe has not made a profit since 1999 and the deal has increased fears about job losses at

Vauxhall. Factories at Ellesmere Port and Luton in the UK employ about 4,500 people. With GM’s

Opel and Vauxhall operations, PSA Group would become the second largest carmaker in Europe,

behind Volkswagen.

On March 2 the European Parliament voted to end visa-free travel for Americans within

the EU.

The non-binding resolution came after the US failed to provide visa-free travel for citizens of five

EU countries including Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Poland and Romania as part of a reciprocity

agreement. US citizens can normally travel to all countries in the bloc without a visa. The vote

urged the cancellation of the scheme within two months. Americans would have to apply for extra

documents for 12 months after the European Commission implements a “delegated act” to bring

the change into effect. Member states would have to approve the move, a process that could take

years. Nevertheless, the resolution, passed by a show of hands, said the new visa rules should

come into effect quickly and should remain in place until the US visa requirements are shelved.

On March 2, the Swedish government announced its decision to reintroduce military

conscription in the country.

4,000 men and women would be called up for service from January 1, 2018. They will be selected

from some 13,000 people born in 1999, who will undergo a military assessment. The decision

comes in the wake of Russia’s Baltic military drills. In September 2016, a Swedish garrison was

restored to Gotland, an island located between the Swedish mainland and the three ex-Soviet

Baltic States.

On March 1, the European Commission presented a White Paper on the Future of Europe.

The White Paper identifies the main challenges and opportunities for Europe during the next ten

years. It presents five scenarios for how the EU could evolve by 2025 depending on the choices it

makes. The White Paper touches issues including the impact of new technologies on society and

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jobs, to doubts about globalisation, security concerns and the rise of populism. It talks about the

different choices available to the EU from “being swept along by those trends, or embracing them

and seizing the new opportunities they bring.”

---Amina Afzal

21

MIDDLE EAST & WEST ASIA

Bahrain

On March 5, Bahrain’s parliament approved a constitutional change allowing military

courts to try civilians.

Activists have warned the amendment would allow an undeclared state of martial law in the

country. Loyalists of Bahrain’s rulers call the change necessary to fight terrorism. Meanwhile

the persistent unrest that followed the 2011 demonstrations has escalated recently amid a severe

crackdown. During the council’s session, Justice Minister Khalid bin Ali Al Khalifa told

lawmakers the amendment was necessary as military judges are ‘best placed’ to deal with

‘irregular warfare’. He said, “If militias and armed groups are committing terrorist acts

targeting innocent lives and property, as well as receiving elements of combat training, we must

confront them ... and stop their threats to peace and security.” This is not the first step away from

reforms Bahrain made after the protests. The Kingdom has already restored the power of its

domestic spy service to make some arrests. Since the beginning of a government crackdown in

April 2016, activists have been imprisoned or forced into exile. Bahrain’s main Shia opposition

group has also been dismantled.

Egypt

At a joint press conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Cairo on March 2,

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said Egypt supports a “united Syria” and a

political resolution to the foreign-sponsored militancy.

The two leaders held talks in Cairo discussing various issues including illegal migration,

terrorism and latest developments in Libya and Syria. In a joint press conference following the

meeting, Sisi praised the development of Egyptian-German relations in various fields and the

participation of German firms in mega development projects in the Arab country. President Sisi

also called for adopting a “clear and firm position” vis-à-vis “the sponsors of terrorism in the

region.” In October 2016, the Damascus government called on Egypt to lend its support to the

fight against terrorists in the region. Merkel expressed appreciation for German-Egyptian long

term and strong ties, noting her country is one of Egypt’s major trade and investment partners.

She also praised Egypt’s work on hosting Libyan rival parties for a peaceful settlement, noting

that it requires further cooperation and coordination with the international community and that

Germany is playing an indirect role with support from outgoing German UN envoy to Libya

Martin Kobler.

On March 2, an Egyptian appeals court acquitted ex-president Hosni Mubarak of

involvement in the killing of protesters during the 2011 revolt.

22

Mubarak had been sentenced to life in 2012 but an appeals court ordered a retrial, which

dismissed the charges two years later. The latest ruling by the Court of Cassation is final. The

trial was Mubarak’s final one, after prosecutors levelled various charges against him following

his February 2011 resignation. He was accused of inciting the deaths of protesters during the

18-day revolt, in which about 850 people were killed during police clashes with demonstrators.

Iran

On March 10, Iran welcomed a Chinese offer to play a mediatory role and help settle the

differences between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Earlier, on March 8, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressed hope for the resolution of the

problems facing Iran and Saudi Arabia, saying Beijing was ready to help eliminate the

differences. The Saudi ambassador in China, however, reacted negatively and rejected the

proposal. In a statement the Iranian Embassy in Beijing criticised Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy,

saying Riyadh has destabilised the region and the entire world by “inciting sectarian and

religious disputes and sponsoring terrorist and Takfiri groups.” The statement said, “Contrary to

the Saudi regime, Iran welcomes all constructive efforts. In the latest instance, Iran has

welcomed a proposal by the Emir of Kuwait to facilitate dialogue and understanding in the

region. Accordingly, [Iran] also welcomes a constructive role by the People’s Republic of

China.” Saudi Arabia severed diplomatic relations with Iran on January 3, 2016 following

demonstrations held in front of the Saudi embassy in Iran by angry protesters criticising the Al

Saud family for the execution of prominent Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr.

On March 9, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qassemi condemned a new

report by the UN special rapporteur about the situation of human rights in Iran as

“unjust” and “politically-motivated.”

Qassemi said that the account was aimed at portraying a gloomy image of Iran. He was reacting

to the 40-page report presented by Asma Jahangir to the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva.

In the report, the UN rapporteur criticises Iran over a range of allegations, including the

execution of juveniles, imprisonment of religious minorities, torture of political prisoners and

child marriage. He also criticised Asma Jahangir for turning a blind eye to Iran’s achievements

in the area of human rights, adding that before the official release of the report, Tehran had

provided comprehensive explanations in response to the allegations, none of which were

considered in the final document.

23

Iraq

On March 12, US envoy to the anti-Daesh coalition, Brett McGurk, announced that Iraqi

forces fighting to retake Mosul have cut the last road out of the city, trapping militants

inside Mosul.

Earlier in 2017, Iraqi forces recaptured east Mosul, and are now battling to retake its western

side from the militants. According to McGurk, the 9th Iraqi army division cut off the last road out

of Mosul near Badush. Iraqi soldiers and pro-government paramilitaries are fighting Daesh west

of Mosul, while two special forces units and the federal police battle the militants inside it.

McGurk also announced that Daesh has lost over 60 % of the territory it once held in Iraq, and

is losing more every day, losing fighters faster than it can replace them.

According to a US defence official on March 9, Daesh commander, Abu Bakr al-

Baghdadi, has abandoned Mosul, leaving local commanders behind to lead the battle

against Iraqi forces advancing in the city.

The defence official said that with Iraqi troops making steady progress in their assault to retake

Mosul from the militants, Baghdadi had fled to avoid being trapped inside. It was the latest sign

that Daesh is under pressure from US-backed offensives that have seen it lose much of the

territory it once controlled in Iraq and Syria. Baghdadi declared the ‘caliphate’ in Mosul in

2014. During an audio message in November 2016 he had urged supporters to hold ground in

the city rather than ‘retreating in shame’. In recent days, Iraqi forces have retaken a series of

neighbourhoods in west Mosul as well as the provincial government headquarters and a museum

where Daesh filmed themselves destroying precious artefacts.

Israel

According to Haaretz on March 12, Israeli Education Minister Naftali Bennett said that

life in Lebanon today was not bad compared to Syria, adding Tel Aviv should target

civilians in a future war with the country and send it “back to the Middle Ages.”

Bennett said that all aspects of life in Lebanon must be targeted in a future war with Hezbollah,

because the resistance movement is now an important part of the Lebanese people. He said, “The

Lebanese institutions, its infrastructure, airport, power stations, traffic junctions, Lebanese Army

bases – they should all be legitimate targets if a war breaks out.” In 2006, Bennett served as a

reserve officer and commanded an elite unit sent deep into southern Lebanon to find Hezbollah’s

rocket-launching squads during the second Israeli war on Lebanon. Bennett asserts that

targeting civilian infrastructure, along with additional air and ground action by Israeli troops,

would shorten the campaign, while accelerating international intervention. Bennett’s approach

is not new for Israel. In 2008, Gadi Eisenkot, the head of the Israeli army’s Northern Command,

who currently serves as the army’s chief of staff, presented the “Dhahiya doctrine.” It referred to

24

Israel’s heavy bombardment of the densely-populated Shia quarter in southern Beirut in the 2006

war because buildings in the neighborhood identified with Hezbollah.

During a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Moscow on March

9, Russian President Vladimir Putin urged Israel to stop adopting hostile policies against

Iran based on a legend in “the fifth century B.C.,” instead of focusing on the realities on

ground.

Putin gave these remarks following Netanyahu’s statement which evoked age-old tensions with

Iran. Netanyahu said Persia had made ‘an attempt to destroy the Jewish people that did not

succeed’ some 2,500 years ago. He further said, “Today there is an attempt by Persia’s heir,

Iran, to destroy the state of the Jews. They say this as clearly as possible and inscribe it on their

ballistic missiles.” Netanyahu stressed that while Israel was capable of defending itself, the

country and the whole world remained threatened by radical Shia Islam. Putin responded by

saying that the events described by Netanyahu had taken place ‘in the fifth century B.C. He said,

“We now live in a different world. Let us talk about that now.”

On March 8, Israel’s Knesset gave preliminary approval to a controversial bill that would

ban Muslim calls to prayer via loudspeakers at Mosques in the occupied Palestinian

territories.

The “muezzin” bill was passed in the preliminary reading by 55-48 votes. According to a

statement from the Israeli parliament, the first measure in the bill prohibits the use of

loudspeakers between 11:00 p.m. and 7:00 a.m., the second would completely ban places of

worship from using loudspeakers. The Muslims, Christians and Jews across the occupied

Palestinian territories have criticised the bill. However, it has been supported by Israeli Prime

Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He had earlier said he would back the controversial bill, adding

that the call to prayers made excessive “noise.”

Jordan

Haaretz reported on March 2 that Israel has been quietly exporting natural gas to Jordan

through an American intermediary firm.

According to reports, gas deliveries to two Jordanian companies, the state-owned Arab Potash

and Jordan Bromine, started in January 2017. Despite popular opposition in Jordan to

conducting business with Israel, the two Jordanian energy firms signed a 500-million-dollar, 15-

year deal three years ago to purchase gas from Israel’s Tamar partners. The US State

Department had acted as a mediator to forge the deal. But, formally, the gas is not being directly

sold to the Jordanian firms. The Tamar partners, which include the Texas company Noble

Energy and Israel’s Delek Group and Isramco, are using the American intermediary firm NBL

Eastern Mediterranean Marketing Ltd. to indirectly sell the gas to the Jordanians. This is while

25

Jordanian pipelines have been directly connected to the Israeli network. Although Israel is

generally considered an adversary of Arab governments, according to reports, the Israeli regime

has been in secret contact with such regimes, including Saudi Arabia, in the recent past. In

March 2016, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his regime’s relations with

regional Arab countries were “dramatically warming.” The Jordanian and Egyptian

governments are the only two Arab regimes that have open, diplomatic relations with Israel.

Palestine

On March 14, Jason Greenblatt, US President Donald Trump’s special representative for

international negotiations, held a meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in

Ramallah.

According to media sources, the details of the meeting are not clear. Earlier, on March 13,

Greenblatt held talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. US officials described

Greenblatt’s visit as a fact-finding mission. In a related development on March 10, during their

first telephonic conversation, Trump invited Abbas to visit the White House soon. These

developments signal that the White House wants to restart the peace process. During a February

2017 meeting with Netanyahu, President Trump signaled a diversion from US policy by saying

he was not bound to a two-state solution to the conflict and would be open to a one state solution

if it meant peace. Trump had pledged during his campaign to move the US embassy in Israel

from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Observers say there have been mixed signals about the approach

Trump would employ in order to restart negotiations.

Saudi Arabia

On March 14, US President Donald Trump held a meeting with Deputy Crown Prince of

Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman at the White House.

The meeting between the two leaders was the first since Trump’s inauguration. They discussed

matters of mutual interest including opportunities for US companies to invest in Saudi Arabia.

US Vice President Mike Pence, Trump’s senior adviser and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, chief of

staff Reince Priebus and strategist Steve Bannon were also present at the Oval Office meeting

with Prince Mohammed. Trump and Prince Mohammed also shared a view that Iran posed a

regional security threat. The deputy crown prince viewed the nuclear deal as “very dangerous”,

while the White House said the deal was not in the best interest of the US. According to analysts,

Riyadh and other Gulf allies see Trump as a strong president who would make Washington their

main strategic partner and help contain Iran in a region central to US security and energy

interests.

26

Syria

PressTv reported on March 13 that foreign-sponsored Takfiri militants have reached an

agreement with the Syrian government for the evacuation of civilians and extremists from

the western Syrian city of Homs.

According to Provincial Governor Talal Barrazi the militants would be allowed to leave al-Waer

neighborhood in Homs, located 162 kilometres north of Damascus, under a Russia-backed deal

reached on March 13, 2017. The deal would be operationalised within six to eight weeks, with

the first group leaving on March 17, 2017. According to Homs Media Centre, between 10,000-

15,000 people would leave in groups over the coming weeks. The initial batch would include

about 1,500 people. Barrazi also said that the militants who renounce violence would be allowed

to stay in Homs and benefit from an amnesty law issued by President Bashar al-Assad. Al-Waer

is the last militant-held area in Homs. Around 75,000 people live in the area and it has been

under a government siege since 2013.

On March 11, at least 59 people were killed in twin bombings targeting Shia pilgrims in

Damascus.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human

Rights, most of the victims were Iraqis. Twelve Syrian government fighters were also killed in the

attacks. The Bab al Saghir area houses several mausoleums that draw pilgrims from around the

world. Syrian Interior Minister, Mohammad Shaar said the attack targeted ‘pilgrims of various

Arab nationalities.’ Al Qaeda and Daesh extremists have frequently targeted Shia shrines in both

Iraq and Syria.

On March 9, Colonel John Dorrian, spokesman for the US-led coalition, said that the US

is deploying an additional 400 troops to help defeat Daesh in Raqqa.

While addressing reporters in Baghdad, Colonel Dorrian confirmed a report in the New York

Times which said that the US is increasing its troops in Syria. However, he said that they are

temporary forces adding that the long-term authorised level of US troops in Syria would remain

at 500. Daesh is facing simultaneous offensives in northern Syria by government forces, Turkish-

backed rebels, and a US-supported alliance of Kurdish and Arab fighters. Some 500 US

personnel are already in Syria to help the fight against Daesh. According to Dorrian, a 400-

strong additional deployment included both Marines and Army Rangers. The artillery will help

‘expedite the defeat of Daesh in Raqqa’. The Marines were armed with 155-millimetre artillery

guns. Dorrian added that Army Rangers were on a different mission than the Marines according

27

to a previously announced deployment near the city of Manbij to ‘create some reassurance’ for

Turkey and US partners in Syria.

The Syrian army and the Kremlin announced on March 2 that Syrian troops, with the

support of Russian jets, have recaptured the ancient city of Palmyra from Daesh.

The fight for Palmyra between Syrian forces and Daesh continued for several days. According to

the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the militants had totally withdrawn from the city

before the forces declared victory. Moscow’s support has been the key to the Syrian army’s

Palmyra push. The militants first seized Palmyra in May 2015 and began to systematically

destroy and loot the UNESCO world heritage site’s monuments and temples. They were driven

out in March 2016 but recaptured the city in December 2016 when the government was focused

on seizing rebel-held east Aleppo. Daesh suffered numerous setbacks since taking over territory

in Iraq and Syria in 2014, and its two main strongholds of Mosul and Raqqa both face assaults

by forces backed by a US-led coalition.

Turkey

On March 13, the EU and NATO called on Turkey to move toward defusing the

increasing tension between Ankara and the Netherlands urging both sides to show mutual

respect.

On March 11, the Netherlands barred a plane carrying Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlut

Cavusoglu, from landing in the country, saying his trip was a threat to public order.

In a joint statement on March 13, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini and EU

Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Hahn urged Ankara “to refrain from excessive statements

and actions that risk further exacerbating the situation.” The statement came two days after

Dutch authorities banned Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and the country’s Family

and Social Policy Minister, Fatma Betul Sayan Kaya from campaigning for Turkey’s April 2017

constitutional referendum which seeks to extend President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s powers. The

ban sparked tension between Ankara and Amsterdam, with Erdogan calling the Dutch

authorities “fascists” and “remnants of Nazis”. Erdogan warned that the Netherlands would “pay

the price” for its “shameless” treatment of Turkey’s ministers. Turkey also summoned the Dutch

ambassador three times after Foreign Minister Cavusoglu was banned from landing in

Rotterdam. Shortly after Erdogan’s comments, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte noted that

Ankara should apologise for comparing the Dutch to Nazis. Turkey sealed the Dutch embassy in

Ankara and its Consulate in Istanbul over “security” reasons, and asked the Dutch ambassador

in Ankara, who was away on leave, not to return “for a while.” PressTv reported that according

to some unnamed sources close to the Turkish government, the Turkish cabinet announced a

28

series of political sanctions on the Netherlands and the cancellation of all high-level relations

and meetings with the country. Other sources said that Ankara would not restrict its counter-

actions to mere economic measures, but also cultural activities, as well cooperation in the

military and technological fields.

On March 5, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Germany of ‘fascist

actions’ similar to Nazi times, after German authorities withdrew permission for two

rallies by Turkish citizens in German cities.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s office had no immediate comment on the remarks but the

deputy leader of her Christian Democratic Union party said the Turkish president was ‘reacting

like a wilful child that cannot have his way’. The Turkish ministers were planning to urge a ‘Yes’

vote in a referendum in April 2017 on granting Erdogan new presidential powers during the

rallies. The issue has brought relations between the two countries to a new low. Erdogan’s ruling

Justice and Development Party (AKP) is running the ‘Yes’ campaign, saying the changes would

bring political stability. The vote is widely seen as a referendum for Erdogan himself because the

proposed plan would see him stay in power until 2029. Opponents however say the changes that

would grant sweeping new powers to the head of state would make parliament dysfunctional and

promote a one-man model.

---Muhammad Shoaib

29

SOUTH ASIA

Pakistan

External

According to Radio Pakistan on March 15, Pakistan’s Ambassador to the US, Aizaz

Chaudhry expressed hope that US President Trump and his Administration will engage

positively with Pakistan.

Ambassador Chaudhry said that Pakistan and the US have been partners for the last seven

decades and highlighted that both the countries have cooperated in fighting terrorism. The

Ambassador also noted that the two countries could work together to stabilise Afghanistan.

During his meeting with Yemen’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister,

Abdulmalik Abdul Jalil Al Mekhlafi in Islamabad on March 14, Prime Minister Nawaz

Sharif announced immediate provision of $1 million humanitarian assistance for Yemen.

PM Sharif also appreciated Yemen’s assistance in the evacuation of thousands of Pakistani

nationals from Yemen, in March 2015 after the fighting intensified between Houthi-led rebels

and pro-government forces in the country. Meanwhile, Yemeni Deputy PM and Foreign

Minister, Al Mekhlafi also met Pakistan’s Foreign Affairs Adviser, Sartaj Aziz on March 13,

2017. During the discussion, Sartaj Aziz affirmed Pakistan’s support for the unity, sovereignty

and territorial integrity of Yemen. Mekhlafi thanked Pakistan for its continued political and

economic support to Yemen.

Citing the Middle East Eye, The Nation reported on March 13 that Pakistan plans to send

combat troops to protect Saudi Arabia’s southern borders from attacks by Houthis in

Yemen.

However, the reports were dismissed by the Pakistan government. In 2015, Pakistan’s

parliament voted against a request by Saudi Arabia to join the coalition fighting in Yemen

against the Houthis and adopted a neutral position on the conflict.

Writing for the Washington Post on March 10, Pakistan’s former ambassador to the US,

Husain Haqqani claimed that his “connections with the Obama Administration enabled

the US to discover and eliminate Osama bin Laden without depending on Pakistan’s

intelligence service or military which were suspected of sympathy toward Islamist

militants”.

Ambassador Haqqani also disclosed that he had assisted the US in “stationing US Special

Operations and intelligence personnel on the ground in Pakistan.” He wrote that the decision

was taken “without the knowledge of Pakistan’s army” and was authorised by the then civilian

government headed by former President Asif Ali Zardari. Haqqani also revealed that he was

forced to resign as ambassador after “Pakistan’s military-intelligence apparatus gained the

30

upper hand in the country’s perennial power struggle”. Ambassador Haqqani served as

Pakistan’s ambassador to the US from 2008 to 2011. He was forced to resign after accusations

of orchestrating a secret memo on behalf of former President Asif Zardari to Mike Mullen,

former US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and sought for American help to avoid a

possible military-led coup in Pakistan. However, following accusations, ambassador Haqqani

had said he was not involved in writing or delivering of the memo. The latest claims by the

former ambassador have once again prompted concerns in the country with opposition parties

questioning whether former President Zardari had authorised the memo.

During a testimony before the US Senate Armed Services Committee on March 9,

General Joseph Votel, Commander of the US Central Command (CENTCOM) warned

that conventional conflict between Pakistan and India could escalate into a nuclear

confrontation adding that “India’s public policy to ‘diplomatically isolate’ Pakistan

hinders any prospects for improved relations.”

General Votel also emphasised that tensions between Pakistan and India may continue as New

Delhi remains “concerned about the lack of action against India-focused militants based in

Pakistan.” The CENTCOM commander also claimed that 20 terrorist organisations operate at

the Pak-Afghan border. Votel added that seven of these 20 organisations have their sanctuaries

in Pakistan. General Votel also said that Pakistan’s increased focus on its eastern border with

India “detracts Pakistan’s efforts to secure its western border with Afghanistan.” He, however,

maintained that the Pak-US relationship “remains a very important one.” The deteriorating

relations between Pakistan and India have raised concerns of an all-out conflict between the two

nuclear armed countries. Earlier in January 2017, former US Vice President, Joe Biden had

warned that nuclear weapons could be used in a regional conflict in South Asia.

On March 8, US Congressman Ted Poe and James Clad, a former Pentagon official urged

the Trump Administration to stop treating Pakistan as an ally.

Poe and Clad argued in an article for National Interest Magazine, that for decades, the US had

“acquiesced in a toxic relationship” with Pakistan. The two also called Pakistan “a quasi-

adversary,” receiving hundreds of billions of dollars through the years in direct and indirect US

support. Ted Poe has repeatedly accused Pakistan of supporting terrorism. In September 2016,

Congressmen Poe introduced the Pakistan State Sponsor of Terrorism Designation Act in US

Congress calling Pakistan “an untrustworthy ally.” In June, 2016 Congressman, Poe moved an

amendment in the House to cut the Coalition Support Fund (CSF) for Pakistan from $900

million to $700m. The amendment was defeated.

On March 7, Pakistan temporarily reopened its two main borders with Afghanistan to

allow visitors with valid visas on either side to return home.

Pakistan had closed its Torkham and Chaman crossings with Afghanistan on February 16, 2017

following a terrorist attack at the Lal Shahbaz Qalandar shrine in Sehwan that killed 75 people.

Pakistan claims that the Sehwan attack was coordinated and plotted in Afghanistan. Islamabad

31

has urged Kabul to act against militant sanctuaries across the border. Many people were

stranded at the Pak-Afghan border due to the closure. Opposition lawmakers in Pakistan

strongly criticised the government’s move arguing that the border closure would not alone solve

terrorism related issues.

On February 8, Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif met the Emir of Kuwait Sheikh Sabah Al-

Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah in Kuwait.

The two leaders discussed bilateral relations. The Prime Minister said that the volume of

bilateral trade between the two countries needed to be enhanced to its fullest potential. The

premier also proposed establishing a Pakistan-Kuwait joint business council.

On March 7, at least five Pakistani soldiers were killed in a cross-border “terrorist attack”

on three Pakistani border posts along the Pak-Afghan border.

The Pakistan Army said it killed over 15 suspected terrorists in response. Pakistan also

summoned the Afghan Deputy Head of Mission and conveyed Pakistan’s grave concern over the

incidents. Islamabad has also asked Afghan authorities to strengthen surveillance in border

areas. Following a series of attacks across Pakistan in February, 2017, Pakistan Army launched

a crackdown against terrorists and also shelled terrorist hideouts inside Afghanistan.

According to Dawn on March 6, Pakistan loses $10 billion a year in money laundering.

The 2017 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report by the US State Department also

identified India as the fourth largest source of illegal financial outflows in the world.

On March 4, Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa met with Iranian

Ambassador, Mehdi Honardoost in Islamabad. Following the meeting, General Bajwa

said “enhanced Pak-Iran military-to-military cooperation will have positive impact on

regional peace and stability.”

General Bajwa also stressed that no compromise could be made on the relationship between

Pakistan and Iran. Earlier on March 1, 2017, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Pakistani

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, in a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Economic

Cooperation Organization’s Summit, reaffirmed their “mutual desire to strengthen bilateral

relations”.

According to The Nation on March 4, Pakistan’s Foreign Affairs Adviser, Sartaj Aziz

informed the Senate that there is no proposal under consideration to extradite Indian spy

Kulbhushan Jadhav and added that he would be tried in a local court.

The adviser also said that Pakistan has shared a dossier with the UN Secretary General about

Indian involvement in the internal affairs of Pakistan and detailing India’s subversive and

terrorist activities in Pakistan. Sartaj Aziz also said that Pakistan sent a list of questions to the

Indian government on this matter. Aziz also stressed that the government may also share the

dossier with other countries and international organisations.

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According to Radio Pakistan on March 1, the 13th summit of the Economic Cooperation

Organisation (ECO) concluded in Islamabad with calls for doubling intra-regional trade

in the next five years and promoting connectivity.

The Summit also adopted the Islamabad declaration and vision 2025 delineating a road map for

greater regional cooperation and integration over the next decade. ECO members also resolved

to promote multi-dimensional connectivity. Addressing the summit, PM Sharif said that the ECO

member countries needed to work as a unit for progress and prosperity. Eight heads of state and

government including Iranian President Hassan Rouhani attended the summit.

Pakistan

Internal

On March 2, the federal cabinet approved recommendations of the Federally

Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) Reforms Committee, including the merger of the

tribal areas with Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province.

The government also approved a 10-year reform package for the development of the region.

Moreover, the jurisdiction of the Peshawar High Court and Supreme Court would also be

extended to the region. Calls for making the underdeveloped FATA region a part of the KP

province emerged due to growing security challenges in the region. A few tribal leaders have,

however, criticised the move.

India

On March 11, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won assembly elections in the Indian

states of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

The development follows elections in five states including Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand

and Uttar Pradesh. The BJP secured 301 of the 403 seats in Uttar Pradesh, the country’s most

populous state, giving BJP the largest majority scored by any party in the state since 1980.

Meanwhile, BJP President, Amit Shah announced that his party would also form governments in

both Goa and Manipur following hung election verdicts in both the states. Although the

Congress secured the highest number of seats in Manipur and Goa, it fell short of acquiring

majority after the BJP gained support of other winning candidates in the state. The Congress

won in Punjab where it captured 70 of 117 seats. The victories indicate growing support for the

BJP in India as it is heading towards the 2019 general elections.

According to Indian authorities on March 8, security forces killed Saifullah, the gunman,

responsible for the March 7, 2017 train blast in the state of Madhya Pradesh.

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A Daesh flag along with ammunition and explosive were found with the gunman’s body.

Indian officials also confirmed that the militant was suspected of being an active member of

Daesh. The blast marks the first incident linked to Daesh in India.

Afghanistan

On March 8, at least 38 people were killed after militants attacked Sardar Daud Khan

hospital in Kabul.

The attack continued for six hours before Afghan security forces killed all four assailants dressed

as doctors. Daesh militant group claimed the attack. The hospital was also attacked in 2013 by

the Afghan Taliban killing six people. However, the Taliban distanced themselves of having any

links to the latest attack. Afghanistan’s President, Ashraf Ghani said that the Afghan forces are

“using their full might” to counter the insurgents. The violence underscores the country’s

deteriorating security situation as both Daesh and Taliban insurgents have stepped up their

attacks in recent months.

Daesh made inroads in Afghanistan in early 2015 after the withdrawal of US and NATO troops

from the country. While various media reports indicate that Daesh is now seeking to expand its

presence in Afghanistan, US authorities insist that Daesh has now approximately 700 fighters in

the country. Daesh is also believed to be involved in clashes with Afghan Taliban for gaining

control over territories in eastern Afghanistan.

Sri Lanka

On March 5, Sri Lankan President, Maithripala Sirisena rejected a UN call for allowing

international judges to investigate alleged war crimes during the country’s civil war.

The development came two days after the UN expressed concern about the slow progress of Sri

Lanka in dealing with alleged cases of war crimes in the past. The UN has pressed Sri Lanka for

joint courts to try suspected criminals and establish a special tribunal to investigate the alleged

killing of Tamil people by government forces in the civil war.

--- Muhammad Abdul Qadeer

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UNITED NATIONS

On March 10, Stephen O’Brien, the UN Under Secretary-General for Humanitarian

Affairs, told the UNSC that the world is facing its worst humanitarian crisis since World

War II with more than 20 million people in four countries facing starvation and famine.

He said that people would suffer from disease and starve to death without collective and

cooperative global efforts. He called upon countries for urgent mobilisation of funds,

approximately $4.4 billion by July 2017, for humanitarian aid in Yemen, Somalia, South Sudan

and northeastern Nigeria. He called Yemen the world’s largest case of humanitarian crisis with

two thirds of its population in need of assistance and more than seven million with no regular

access to food. He noted that by 2017 Yemen needs $2.1 billion but has only received 6% of that

amount. On South Sudan, he said the situation was worse than ever. The famine in the country is

man-made and there are more than 7.5 million people who need assistance. The situation in

Somalia and northeastern Nigeria is similar. More than half the population of Somalia needs

humanitarian assistance. In northeastern Nigeria, 7.1 million people are severely food insecure

and 10.7 million people need humanitarian help.

According to a report released by the UN on March 3, with 274000 displaced people,

Yemen’s Taiz city has become a centre for clashes, military confrontations and aerial

strikes between warring parties in the country.

An International Organisation for Migration (IOM) report noted that at least 25000 people have

been displaced from the city of Al Mokha. IOM has set a system for tracking displaced people

from Al Mokha and other cities of Yemen. IOM Yemen Chief of Mission Laurent de Boeck stated

that the data on displaced individuals has allowed the entire humanitarian community to

enhance and increase its support and protection activities. Since the beginning of the conflict in

March 2015 IOM has tracked approximately 426672 internally displaced persons in Taiz.

On March 3, the Watchlist on Children and Armed Conflict urged UN Secretary-General

Antonio Guterres to add 11 entities to the blacklist of countries and armed groups

responsible for violation of children rights.

The Watchlist on Children and Armed Conflict recommended that the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban

Pakistan (TTP) be included in the blacklist, as well as the Saudi-led Coalition in Yemen, which

was taken off from the 2016 list by the then UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon after Saudi

Arabia threatened to stop funding many UN programmes. The Watchlist said that Israel

Defence Forces should also be added to the list as it is responsible for killing and injuring

children and attacking schools and hospitals in Gaza and the West Bank. The recommendations

by the Watchlist also include the listing of the Communist Party-Maoist for recruiting and using

children in India, armed opposition groups in southern Thailand for perpetrating attacks on

schools and hospitals, the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq, the Libyan National Army and

several other groups in the country, Johnson Olony’s armed group in South Sudan, the Mali

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government-allied group GATIA and Afghan National Defence and Security Forces. The

Watchlist is a global network of local, national, international non-governmental organisations

seeking to end violations against children in armed conflicts. The network was established in

2001.

On March 1, the UN-mandated Independent International Commission of Inquiry on

Syria released a report noting that all parties that fought in the battle for Aleppo had

committed war crimes.

The Report documented that the parties involved in the conflict in Aleppo between July and

December 2016 had employed brutal tactics that led to unprecedented suffering of innocent

Syrians. The report asserted that both the Syrian Government and allied Russian forces used

unguided munitions to bomb populated areas in rebel-held eastern Aleppo. Both Syrian and

Russian forces used air-to-surface rockets, barrel bombs, cluster munitions and chlorine bombs.

The findings in the report also indicated that Syrian forces besieged eastern Aleppo. As a result,

numerous civilians were trapped and left without adequate food and medical facilities. The

Report also accused the Syrian Government of an air strike carried out on a UN and Syrian Red

Crescent convoy at Orum al-Kubra, in rural western Aleppo on September 19, 2016, that killed

14 aid workers, and destroyed 17 trucks carrying aid supplies. The Commission said that

intentional targeting of medical facilities had amounted to war crimes. Apart from Syrian and

Russian forces, rebel forces have also used indiscriminate shelling on populated areas of

western Aleppo, resulting in numerous civilian casualties. The report said that a majority of

those attacks were only aimed at terrorising the civilian population and not directed against

military targets.

--- Moiz Khan