margaret c. kenski, ph.d arizona opinion kate kenski, ph.d university of arizona
TRANSCRIPT
THE AFTER ELECTION POLITICAL
LANDSCAPE
Margaret C. Kenski, Ph.DArizona Opinion
Kate Kenski, Ph.DUniversity of Arizona
Overview
Introduction: The 49% nation
The 2012 election: What happened
The 2012 election: Why did it happen
The 2012 election: What does it mean for the future
The 49% Nation
In 2000, the nation was divided.
In 2012, the national divisions continue.
The voting public is increasingly disenchanted with both parties.
The divisions are political and cultural.
Values Gap 10% values gap in 1987 between major party
identifiers has increased to 18% in 2012
2012 48% approve of gay marriage 53% agree that abortion should be legal 46% agree that immigrants threaten
American values 40% Independents, 31% Democrats, 27%
Republicans
Divisions within Parties
RepublicansRINOs versus Tea Party
DemocratsBlue Dog Democrats who are fiscally
conservative versus Progressives who support big government
Popular Vote by County
Historical StandardsObama Shouldn’t Have Won 52% say things are off on the wrong track 55% say economic conditions are poor, staying
the same, or getting worse 76% say the condition of the nation’s economy is
not-so-good or poor 43,000,000 Americans are on food stamps 7.9% are unemployed Avg household income has declined $4,000
since 2009 35% decline in the value of the avg middle class
family’s assets
The 2012: What Happened Electoral College
2012: 332 Obama 206 Romney
2008: 365 Obama 173 McCain
House2012: 195 Democrats 234 Republicans 6 Undecided
2010: 193 Democrats 242 Republicans 0 Other
Senate2012: 53 Democrats 45 Republicans 2 Independents
2010: 51 Democrats 47 Republicans 2 Independents
Turnout (% of those eligible to vote who actually voted)2012: 57.5%
2008: 62.3%
2004: 60.4%
2000: 54.2%
The 2012 Election: Why It Happened
Total Obama Romney
Democrat 38% 92% 7%
Republican 32% 6% 93%
Independent or something else
29% 45% 50%
The 2012 Election: Why It Happened
Total Obama Romney
Male 47% 45% 52%
Female 53% 55% 44%
Total Obama Romney
White 72% 39% 59%
Black 13% 93% 6%
Hispanic/Latino 10% 71% 27%
Asian 3% 73% 26%
Other 2% 58% 38%
The 2012 Election: Why It Happened
Total Obama Romney
18-24 11% 60% 36%
25-29 8% 60% 38%
30-39 17% 55% 42%
40-49 20% 48% 50%
50-64 28% 47% 52%
65 and over 16% 44% 56%
The 2012 Election: Why It Happened
Total Obama Romney
No high school diploma
3% 64% 35%
High school graduate
21% 51% 48%
Some college/AA degree
29% 49% 48%
College grad 29% 47% 51%
Postgraduate study
18% 55% 42%
The 2012 Election: Why It Happened
2011 total family income
Total Obama Romney
Under $30K 20% 63% 35%
$30K-$49,999 21% 57% 42%
$50K-$99,999 31% 46% 52%
$100K-$199,999
21% 44% 54%
$200K-$249,999
3% 47% 52%
$250K or more 4% 42% 55%
The 2012 Election: Why It Happened
Religious service attendance
Total Obama Romney
Weekly 42% 39% 59%
Occasionally 40% 55% 43%
Never 17% 62% 34%
Issues
Economy
Jobs
Immigration
GOP War on Women
Obama Gaffe: You didn’t build that
Romney Gaffe: 47%
Romney Killed My Wife Ad
GOP War on Women
Campaign Factors
Obama defined Romney
Obama had a better ground game
Romney missed opportunities
Hurricane Sandy
Future Political Landscape Ultimately, voters opted for security over
economic freedom and less regulation.
56% of voters in OH and MI approved of the auto bailout.
Tax increase measures that affect large number of voters are opposed by the majority.
Future Political Landscape
Neither candidates nor voters endorse serious solutions
Only taxing those making over $250K enjoyed a majority of support.That would raise $80 billion with a $1.4 trillion
deficit.
National debt likely to rise to $20 trillion by 2016.
Future Political Landscape
Demographics have changed less than pundits proclaim.
Turnout raises the impact of some groups more than others.Low Evangelical turnout in 2008Low White turnout in 2012Gender gap probably less when other
factors like income and marital status are considered
Future Political Landscape
Young voters have somewhat different social values than their parents
Campaigns will continue to be negative because it works
Gridlock in Congress will lead to more government by regulations than by legislation
Future Political Landscape
Trust in government is likely to remain low76% trusted federal government to do the right
thing in 1964
8% trust the government today
Social media will continue to increase in importance as campaign media