maritime safety and security: tools and...
TRANSCRIPT
Maritime safety and security: Tools and trends
Ronald Pelot, Ph.D., P.Eng.
Department of Industrial Engineering
Dalhousie University
www.marin-research.dal.ca
1 09/11/2011
Spheres of Interest
• Maritime Security: defending the coasts
• Maritime Safety: responding to accidents
• Environmental Protection: responding to spills
• Coastal Zone Risk Management
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Maritime Activity and Risk Investigation Network
Maritime Risk Model
Severity of Incident
RISK FACTORS
Type and Level of
Activity
Environmental
Conditions
Regulations /
Navigation and Safety
Equipment
Operator/PassengerTr
aining
OUTCOME MEASURES
Likelihood of
Occurrence of Marine
Incident
OVERALL RISK
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Activity Types
Commercial shipping
Commercial fishing
Commercial recreational
Aquaculture
Ferries
Cruise ships
Private recreational
Traffic Modelling Processes
• Maximize use of information:
– source: location, date, time
– intermediate points: way points, fishing efforts
– final destination: location, date, time
– frequency
• Extrapolate using more general information
– feasible range: distance, time
– feasible location; eg. fishing grounds; tourist sites
– typical locations: cluster analysis
Data quality
Class Available Information Example
A
Continuous time-stamped position data;
vessel info
Canadian West Coast
shipping transits; Automatic
Identification System (AIS)
B
Specific origin & destination, and
intermediate waypoints; travel dates;
vessel info
Canadian East Coast shipping
transits
C Specific origin & destination;
travel dates; vessel info
Ferries; Cruise ships
D Specific origin; general destination;
travel dates; vessel info
Commercial fishing by
NAFO zones
E Specific origin; general destination;
frequency of trips; vessel info
Lobster fishing; ecotours
F General origin; general destination;
frequency of trips; classes of vessels
Recreational boating
Direct Connection Results
Land avoidance path
East Coast Merchant Shipping
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Merchant Shipping Incidents vs traffic
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Data proliferation • Sources
– Transmission from ship
– Airborne surveillance
– Satellite surveillance
– Coastal sensors
• Challenges
– Amount of data
– Reconciling different sources
– Detecting unusual events
– Storing info for multiple purposes
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Research issues
• Limitations of each type of sensor
• Data fusion challenges
• Establishing baseline “typical” traffic patterns (Recognized Maritime Picture – RMP)
• Detecting and categorizing anomalous behaviour
• Process new information sources to maximize use Coastal Safety: AIS, LRIT, HITS
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Research issues (cont’d)
• Small Boat Detection
• Resource Location models (SAR)
• Risk Modelling
– Prioritize threats/hazards
– Identify hot spots
– Allocate resources optimally to achieve the best overall risk reduction
– Can be used for prevention and/or response
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Example 1
Abnormal ship trajectories
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Traffic Monitoring System
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Route-Trajectory Updating
Route Central Axis
Weight: 2
End Normal
LineStart Normal
Line
Trajectory Central AxisExtended Nodes
(Start)
Extended Nodes
(End)
Resampled New Route
Route Envelope
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West Coast shipping: typical route identification
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Two individual atypical trajectories
Traj: 5-380
Traj: 2-516
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Example 2
Discriminating recreational boat types
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(a) Trajectory 1 (b) Trajectory 2 (c) Trajectory 3 (d) Trajectory 4
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Characterizing Recreational Boating Patterns based on GPS Trajectory Point
Boat classification by movement
0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000750Meters
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000500Meters
0 375 750 1,125 1,500187.5Meters
0 100 200 300 40050Meters
0 42,000 84,000 126,000 168,00021,000Meters
Canoe Kayak Motorboat Sailboat
Coastal Area around NS
0 0.003 0.006 0.009 0.0120.0015Decimal Degrees
0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.020.0025Decimal Degrees
0 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.0040.0005Decimal Degrees
0 0.0009 0.0018 0.0027 0.00360.00045Decimal Degrees
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.40.05Decimal Degrees
Canoe Kayak Motorboat Sailboat
Coastal Area around NS
Patterns of Different Recreational boat Types
Patterns of Different Recreational Boat Types at different Locations
Mean Speed
Max Speed
Max 1/20 Speed
Total Travelled Distance
Farthest Distance to Shore
Aspect Ratio
Complexity
Mean Turning Angle
Discrimination Classification
Pattern analysis
•Aspect Ratio: Width of Bounding Box/Length of Bounding box •Coverage Index: Perimeter of Bounding box/Total Distance
L
P4
P192
P224
P182
W1
W2
Bounding Box
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P(Motorboat)=0.899 P(Sailboat) =0.101
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Vessel classification
Classification Results from Coastal Data
DFSMTAMSSailboat
DFSMTAMSMotorboat
DFSMTAMSKayak
DFSMTAMSCanoe
001683.0178.0293.5720.13
0002997.0192.0611.9071.27
0002293.0104.0183.3624.5
0002739.0125.0066.3878.6
•Stepwise Computational Classification
* 84.2% of original grouped cases correctly classified
Predicted Group Membership Total
TYPE canoe kayak motorboat sailboat
canoe 94.1 5.9 0.0 0.0 100.0
kayak 33.3 61.9 0.0 4.8 100.0
motorboat 20.0 0.0 80.0 0.0 100.0
sailboat 4.3 2.1 2.1 91.5 100.0
Example 3
SAR Coverage
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Station Location Decision
Response Characteristics Site Characteristics
Calculations Views
Average
Response
Response
Distribution
Load
Balance
Coverage
Balance C1 C4 C3 C2 C5 C6
Go/No Go Multiple Attributes
From Chance HarbourFrom Chance HarbourFrom Chance HarbourFrom Chance HarbourFrom Chance HarbourFrom Chance HarbourFrom Chance HarbourFrom Chance HarbourFrom Chance Harbour
At 20 knotsAt 20 knotsAt 20 knotsAt 20 knotsAt 20 knotsAt 20 knotsAt 20 knotsAt 20 knotsAt 20 knots
Time SavingsTime SavingsTime SavingsTime SavingsTime SavingsTime SavingsTime SavingsTime SavingsTime Savings
Time Sav ings
1 Hour2 Hours3 Hours
From Saint JohnFrom Saint JohnFrom Saint JohnFrom Saint JohnFrom Saint JohnFrom Saint JohnFrom Saint JohnFrom Saint JohnFrom Saint John
At 20 knotsAt 20 knotsAt 20 knotsAt 20 knotsAt 20 knotsAt 20 knotsAt 20 knotsAt 20 knotsAt 20 knots
Time SavingsTime SavingsTime SavingsTime SavingsTime SavingsTime SavingsTime SavingsTime SavingsTime Savings
Time Sav ings
1 Hour2 Hours3 Hours
Saint John vs.
Chance Harbour
Response Time Improvements
Coast Guard vessel coverage
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Effect of moving lifeboats
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Example 4
Fishing incident characterization
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Fishing Incidents Density
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Fishing Incident Rate Distribution
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Example 5 How are the incident rates
related to weather conditions?
Results 2 of these 6 factors are related to incident severity Wave Height (m) Ice Concentration (%) Air Temperature (ºC) Amount of Precipitation (mm/day) Sea Surface Temperature (ºC) Fog Existence Indicator
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01
23
45
6 0
20
40
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Pro
b.o
f H
igh
Se
ve
rity
(θ
)
Wave Height (m)
Sensitivity Analysis of Logistic Regression Model
0.7-0.8
0.6-0.7
0.5-0.6
0.4-0.5
0.3-0.4
0.2-0.3
0.1-0.2
0-0.1
Ice
Concentration
(%)
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MARIN – Current activities • Maritime Traffic Pattern Analysis for Coastal
Protection
• Boating Safety for Anglers & Hunters: a Survey of Perceptions and Practices
• Oil in Canadian Waters: Assessing Oil Pollution, Commercial Shipping and Ecological Impacts on Canada’s Three Coasts
• Sensor Interaction for Small Ship Tracking and Awareness in Harbour – A study of the value of using sensors together
MARIN – Current activities (cont’d) • PIRACY (Policy Development and Interdisciplinary
Research for Actions on Coastal Communities, Youth and Seafarers)
• Multi-Criteria Decision Making Framework and Risk model for Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
• A Multi-Disciplinary Approach to Risk Governance: Best Practices, Workshops and Online Training
• Factors affecting seaplane crash survival
• Traffic modelling for risk-based hydrographic survey prioritization
