market attributes: u.s. equities april 2019...u.s. equities april 2019 market attributes 3 q1 2019...

Market Attributes

U.S. Equities April 2019 KEY HIGHLIGHTS

The S&P 500® was up 3.93% in April, bringing its YTD return to 17.51%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average® gained 2.56% for the month and rose 14.00% YTD.

The S&P MidCap 400® increased 3.93% for the month and was up 18.50% YTD.

The S&P SmallCap 600® returned 3.81% in April and 15.40% YTD.

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of April 30, 2019. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative purposes. Returns shown are price returns.

MARKET SNAPSHOT

It took 215 days—the longest wait since the July 2016 417-day wait (guess I shouldn’t mention the

1,997-day wait from October 2007 to March 2013, much less the 9,146-day drought between 1929 and

1954)—but the S&P 500 returned to setting new closing and intraday highs this month (four of them,

with three in row on the last three days of the month). The S&P 500 closed on Tuesday, April 23, 2019,

at 2,933.68, above its Sept. 20, 2018, high of 2,930.75, then a few days later on Friday (April 26, 2019),

it beat that, closing the week at 2,939.88, then on the following Monday (April 29, 2019) setting a new

intraday high of 2,949.52 (replacing the old one of 2,940.91 set on Sept. 21, 2018), as it closed at a

new closing high of 2,943.03, and on April 30, 2019, in a give-and-take market, posted its fourth new

closing high (but not a new intraday high), finishing the month at a closing high of 2,945.83 (the last

month-end closing high was on Nov. 30, 2017, at 2,647.60). The highs marked the 90th through 93rd

new closing highs since the U.S. November 2016 election, and officially confirmed that the current bull

market is the longest on record (started March 9, 2009; up 335% and up 438% with dividends). The

YTD gain was 17.51% (18.25% with dividends), its best opening since the fun-filled year of 1987

(19.07%; 1987 ended the year up 2.07% after an October 19 decline of 20.47%—the worst day in index

history). The new high made up for the 20% fall from the September 2018 high to the December 2018

Exhibit 1: Index Returns

INDEX 1-MONTH (%) 3-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%)

S&P 500 3.93 8.94 17.51 11.25

Dow Jones Industrial Average 2.56 6.37 14.00 10.06

S&P MidCap 400 3.93 7.37 18.50 5.25

S&P SmallCap 600 3.81 4.38 15.40 3.90

Contributor:

Howard Silverblatt, Index Investment Strategy, Senior Industry Analyst, [email protected]

S&P Dow Jones Indices’ Market Attributes® series provides market commentary highlighting developments across various asset classes.

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U.S. Equities April 2019

MARKET ATTRIBUTES 2

low (actually -19.78%, just shy of the official 20% Bear classification; on an unofficial intraday basis, it

did reach -20%). The S&P 500 was up 25.30% from its recent low set on Dec. 24, 2018 (2,351.10),

and up 17.71% YTD, as the (old) bull rode on.

With respect to the new high, the index did what it does, measuring the overall market change since the

prior September high (declining 14% in Q4 2018 and up 17% YTD) as being flat (up 0.51%). The

dispersion, however, showed it was a stock picker’s market, as 252 of the 505 issues were up (average

12.28%), with 135 of them up at least 10% and 44 up at least 20%, as 252 (same as were up) issues

were down (average -13.10%), with 136 of them down at least 10% and 56 down at least 20%. The

bottom line was that overall, the S&P 500 was flat (up 0.51% from Sept. 20, 2018), as over half of the

issues (53.7%) were up or down at least 10% from that time period, and 19.8% were up or down at

least 20%—a stock picker’s dream (or nightmare). One of the reasons for the recovery in 2019 is that

earnings did it again, supporting the market to a new closing high by beating reduced estimates.

Similar to Q4 2018, the “beat is a beat” market view supported the multiples. While that is nice for

today, it will be continue to be tested, as the current 12-month operating P/E is a bit higher than the

historical rate (19.3 currently, 18.8 historically), with forward growth for 2019 at 17.8, also a bit high

historically (it’s typically in the low 17 range).

As for the month of May, retail earnings should give some insight of how much and where consumers

are spending. Politics will continue, as May 6, 2019, is the U.S. House of Representatives ’ subpoena

deadline for Trump’s tax returns, as a court case is already in motion. To date, the market impact of

the political drama has been limited to Health Care issues, as public calls for legislation on drug pricing

and “Medicare for All” have been vocal. May 18, 2019, is the deadline for Trump to decide if he wants

to impose tariffs on auto imports. Adding to the headlines (and trades) is an expected trade deal

announcement between the U.S. and China.

Historically, April posts gains 63.7% of the time, with an average gain of 4.19% for the up months and a

3.82% average decrease for the down months, with an overall average of 1.28%. May posts gains

58.2% of the time, with an average gain of 3.15% for the up months and a 4.63% average decrease for

the down months, with an overall average decline of -0.10%.

The S&P 500 traded and closed above its Sept. 20, 2018, high (2,930.75), setting four new closing

highs (the last being 2,945.83 on the last day of the month) and a new intraday high (2,949.52), making

up for the 20% fall (intraday; officially it was 19.78%, a tick less than the official bear market

classification of losing 20% on a closing basis). The dispersion within the S&P 500 was significant, with

135 issues up at least 10% and 44 up at least 20%, as 136 of them were down at least 10% and 56

down at least 20%.

The S&P 500 closed at 2,945.83, a closing record, up 3.93% (4.05% with dividends) from last month's

2,834.40 close, when it was up 1.79% (1.94%). Year-to-date, the S&P 500 was up 17.51 (18.25% with

dividends). For the one-year period, the index returned to the double-digit category, up 11.25%

(13.49% with dividends). The Dow® closed at 26,592.91, up 2.56% (2.66% with dividends) from last

month's 25,928.68, when it was up 2.41% (2.59%). Year-to-date, The Dow was up 14.00% (14.79%),

and the one-year return was 10.06% (12.63%).

Q1 2019 estimates appeared to have declined enough (down 7.1% from year-end 2018) to produce a

73.0% beat rate (historically it is 67%), as 211 of the 289 reported issues (71.1% of the market value)

have beaten earnings estimates; sales were at a 57.0% beat rate, with 162 of 284 issues beating. The


MARKET ATTRIBUTES 3

Q1 2019 estimate calls for a 6.1% gain over Q4 2018 and a 1.8% gain over Q1 2018. For 2019,

estimates have declined 3.9% since the start of the year, with the first half down more, as 2020 is down

a tick (statistically negligible, -0.3%), and 2019 is estimated to increase 8.9% over 2018; 2020

estimates show an expected 12.5% gain over 2019 (22.5% over the two years from 2018). The S&P

500 target price was 3,172 (7.7% from here; 3,108 last month), and The Dow target price was 28,610

(7.6% from here; 28,512 last month).

Controversy over Special Counsel Mueller’s report continued, as Congress demanded the full report,

threatening to subpoena it (which would set up a court battle), but gave the Justice Department time to

review and reconsider. Trump said he would nominate former Republican presidential candidate

Herman Cain to the Federal Reserve Board, who has been outspoken against recent interest rate

increases. Cain withdrew his name later in the month as opposition to him grew. Trump sought to

impose USD 11.2 billion in new tariffs on the EU, citing retaliation for EU subsidies to Airbus (which has

been in litigation for 14 years at the WTO).

The U.S. House of Representatives (led by Democrats) voted to reinstate the 2015 Net Neutrality

regulations (prohibiting companies from providing differing internet speeds based on customers or

fees), as the U.S. Senate (led by Republicans) said the bill was “dead on arrival” to its chamber. The

U.S. and China set a new date for trade talks; as U.S. representatives had traveled to China, Chinese

representatives would travel to the U.S. (tentatively May 6, 2019), with a goal of “signing” in late May or

June (2019).

Public political discussion continued to grow, but with a limited market impact (mostly on Health Care

issues with respect to drug prices and “Medicare For All”), as a civil war in the Democratic party

emerged via a debate over a potential Trump impeachment proceeding drew commentary. Related

(but not directly), the House Oversight Committee (controlled by Democrats) issued a subpoena (due

May 6, 2019) for eight years of Trump’s tax returns; Trump counter-filed to block the subpoena.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration said it would tighten the ban on Iranian oil sales, via not extending

eight temporary country waivers (which were for 180 days and expire May 18, 2019). Trump and the

Democrats agreed to work toward a USD 2 trillion U.S. infrastructure package, but did not discuss how

to fund it (spending is easy, getting the money is hard).

Former Vice President Biden became the 20th declared candidate for the Democratic nomination to run

for president in 2020. Biden starts as the highest-polling Democratic candidate in his party, with the

nomination in July 2020 (the Republican nomination is in August 2020); the election is on Nov. 3, 2020.

The IMF downgraded its 2019 global growth expectation to 3.3% from its 3.5% January expectation

(and down from 3.7% in October 2018), down from 3.6% for 2018. The IMF expects the U.S. to grow at

2.3% (down from 2.9% in 2018), the 19-country EU at 1.3% (1.8%), and China at 6.3% (6.6%). The

ECB met and maintained its current policy. It said it could delay interest rate increases, implying no

rate change for 2019 and voicing concern over negative interest rates. The Bank of Japan met and left

rates unchanged (at -0.1%), as expected, and its guidance appeared to show rates unchanged over the

next one-year period. The FOMC minutes from its March 20, 2019, meeting showed that a majority

expected interest rates to remain unchanged for 2019. The Beige Book reported that the Fed expects

a “slight-to-moderate” growth rate for the U.S. economy.

The tailwind from buybacks affecting issue-level earnings (and therefore the price) jumped in Q1 2019,

as the cumulative impact of the record buybacks resulted in 72.7% of the issues reported showing a


MARKET ATTRIBUTES 4

decrease in shares used for EPS year-over-year, with 28.3% of the issues having at least a 4% year-

over-year tailwind due to lower shares.

Drug and health store Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) cut its guidance, citing lower profits on

prescription drugs. Money manager BlackRock (BLK) announced a large-scale reorganization, as it

addresses forward growth expectations. Aircraft issue Boeing (BA) reported Q1 2019 aircraft orders

declined to 95 from 180 in Q1 2019, as there were no new orders for the 737 MAX (which is globally

grounded), and it slowed that plane’s production by 20%. The company said it would take (an initial)

USD 1 billion charge for the grounding of its 737 Max, as it halted buybacks. Separately, an investor

class-action lawsuit was filed against the company for its handling of the 737 Max plane’s disclosure.

Entertainment issue Walt Disney (DIS) released details of its new streaming service, which is expected

to challenge Netflix (NFLX). Apple (AAPL) and communication equipment maker Qualcomm (QCOM;

up 51.0% for the month) dismissed all litigation against each other (as their trial began) and agreed to a

new six-year (with two one-year extenders) licensing agreement. Electronics issue Samsung (SSNLF)

delayed the launch of its Galaxy Fold smartphone (priced at USD 2,000) due to issues with its

functionality. S&P Dow Jones Indices added Dow (DOW) to the S&P 500, an issue that was spun off

from DowDuPont (DWDP), as Brighthouse (BHF) was removed from the index. S&P DJI also added

Dow to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing DowDuPont.

The IEA attributed oil’s year-to-date increase to USD 64 from USD 45.81 at year-end 2018 (USD 60.09

at year-end 2017) to supply concerns (OPEC production cuts, Iranian sanctions, fighting in Libya),

adding that there were also potential demand issues developing due to global slowdown, which could

counter some the pressure.

A fire at the Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris destroyed most of the roof, as donations poured in.

Typically, this is not an economic issue, but with initial donations in excess of USD 1 billion, and the

government outlining an initial rebuilding plan, expenditures could affect supply and labor markets.

Bitcoin’s price returned to USD 5,000 (last seen in October 2018), reaching USD 5,633, as it closed at

USD 5,344, up from last month’s USD 4,113 and year-end 2018’s USD 3,747, but down from year-end

2017’s USD 13,850.

The U.S. Social Security administration said its current review shows that the program’s costs would

exceed its income in 2020, requiring it to dip into its funds.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond closed the month at 2.50%, up from last month's 2.41% (2.69% for

year-end 2018, 2.41% for 2017, and 2.45% for 2016). The pound closed down at 1.3038 from 1.3081

(1.2754 for year-end 2018, 1.3498 for 2017, and 1.2345 for 2016), the euro was down to 1.1216 from

last month's 1.1220 (1.1461, 1.2000, 1.0520), the yen closed at 111.41 from last month's 110.82

(109.58, 112.68, 117.00), and the yuan closed at 6.7348 from last month's 6.7121 (6.8785, 6.5030,

6.9448). Oil increased to close at USD 63.38 from last month's USD 60.20 (USD 45.81 at year-end

2018, USD 60.09 for 2017, and USD 53.89 for 2016). U.S. gasoline pump prices (EIA, all grades)

increased, closing the month at USD 2.972 from last month's USD 2.701 per gallon (USD 2.358, USD

2.589, USD 2.364). Gold was down, closing at USD 1,282.70 from last month's USD 1,296.90 (USD

1,284.70, USD 1305.00 for year-end 2017, and USD 1,152.00 for year-end 2016). VIX closed at 13.12,

trading as high as 14.39 and as low as 11.03, down from 13.71 last month (25.42 at year-end 2018,

11.05 at year-end 2017, and 14.04 at year-end 2016).


MARKET ATTRIBUTES 5

INDEX REVIEW

S&P 500

The S&P 500 closed at 2,945.83, a closing record, up 3.93% (4.05% with dividends) from last month's

2,834.40 close, when it was up 1.79% (1.94%). Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 17.51% (18.25% with

dividends). For the one-year period, the index returned to the double-digit category, up 11.25%

(13.49% with dividends). Intraday volatility (daily high/low) decreased to 0.56% (lowest since

December 2017’s 0.53%) from last month’s 0.93%, as the YTD return was 0.86% (0.97% last month);

2018 was 1.21%, 2017 was 0.51% (which was the low since 1962, with the average at 1.43%). S&P

500 trading decreased 12% (same trading days as March) over last month, after the prior month’s 1%

increase (adjusted for trading days); year-over-year, April was down 1%, as the YTD trading volume

was flat over the similar period for last year. Moves of 1% decreased; only 1 of the 21 days moved at

least 1% (up), compared with 3 of the 21 days in March (2 up and 1 down). Year-to-date, there were

12 out of 82 (9 up and 3 down).

Sector variance increased, as 8 of the 11 sectors gained, down from 9 gainers last month, and

February and January when all 11 were up (all 11 were down in December). The spread between the

best (Financials, 8.84%) and worst (Health Care, -2.74%) sectors for the month was 11.58%, up from

last month’s 7.50% and 5.87 the month before that; YTD, it was 23.75% (up from last month’s 13.25%;

full-year 2018 was 25.19%). For the month, Financials did the best, adding 8.84%, as banks beat on

earnings and gave (mostly) positive guidance; the sector was up 17.44% YTD. Information Technology

added 6.36%, remaining the best sector YTD, up 26.96% (and up 72.18% from the U.S. November

2016 election). Communication Services did well, adding 6.22% (although it came under pressure the

last day of the month, declining 2.56%), after last month’s 2.39% gain (0.82% the month before that);

the YTD was 20.69%. Earnings pushed up the sector’s issues, as entertainment issue Walt Disney

(DIS) was up 23.4% (up 24.9% YTD) and social media issue Twitter (TWTR) was up 21.4% (up 38.9%

YTD). Consumer stocks continued to go their separate ways, as Consumer Discretionary was up

5.65% for the month and up 21.83% YTD, while Consumer Staples was up 2.33% for April and up

13.75% YTD. Health Care stocks did the worst, off 2.74%, as concern over potential Washington

legislation (drug prices, Medicare for All), pushed the stocks down; YTD, the sector closed up 3.21%,

though it was in red earlier in the month. Energy posted a slight decrease, down 0.01%, and was up

15.40% YTD, as Real Estate was the third decliner, down 0.58% for the month and up 15.97% YTD.

Breadth increased for the month (it was already strong), as 359 issues gained (an average 6.66%

each), up from 305 last month and down from 382 the month before that; 67 issues gained at least 10%

(15.00%), compared with 20 last month (123 the month before that), with 2 issues up at least 25%

(none last month). On the down side, 145 issues declined (an average loss of 4.29%), down from 200

last month and up from 123 the month before that; 11 issues declined at least 10% (average

-14.25%), down from last month’s 22 issues (33 the month before that), and 1 was down at least 25%.

Year-to-date, 458 (460 last month) issues were up (average 21.10%), with 371 (322) up at least 10%

and 152 (78) up at least 25%, while 44 (43) were down, with 18 (9) down at least 10% and one (none)

down at least 25%.

The Dow

The Dow got an unusual makeover this month, as DowDuPont split into three issues (spin-offs), with

distributed materials company Dow (DOW) replacing DowDuPont in the DJIA (with Dow also being


MARKET ATTRIBUTES 6

added to the S&P 500, and the surviving DowDuPont remaining in the S&P 500). Dow’s debut was

welcomed by investors with a 9.88% gain for the month, as Dow is the sole representative of the

Materials sector in the index.

Last month was airline maker Boeing’s 13.3% decline over its 737 Max issues, which took off 397

points from The Dow; this month it was tape maker 3M (MMM), which fell 8.8% (off 0.5% YTD), as it

missed estimates and announced layoffs, taking 124 points off the top. The difference this month was

the top side (as compared to rising tide lifts all boats); we were all amused by entertainment issue Walt

Disney, as it lit up the stage with a 23.4% gain (up 24.9% YTD), adding back 176 points, and we

banked JPMorgan Chase’s beat, which rose 14.6% for the month (up 18.9% YTD), adding in 101

points, and Goldman Sachs (GS), which was up 7.3% (up 23.3% YTD), adding 94 points.

For April, The Dow closed at 26,592.91, up 2.56% for the month (2.66% with dividends), from last

month’s 25,982.68 close (0.05%, 0.17% with dividends), as the three-month gain was 6.37% (6.99%).

Year-to-date, The Dow was up 14.00% (14.79%), and the one-year return was 10.06% (12.63%).

Unlike the S&P 500, The Dow is didn’t hit a new high, closing 0.88% away from its Oct. 3, 2018, closing

high of 26,838.39.

For the month, 19 issues gained, an average of 7.05% each, compared with last month’s 21 and the

prior month’s 25; four issues gained at least 10% (average 14.84%), compared with none last month.

On the down side, 11 issues fell, with an average decline of 4.78%, compared with all nine last month

(and two in the prior month), as one issue declined at least 10% (-15.33%; two declined last month).

Year-to-date, breadth remained strongly positive; 25 of the 30 issues were up (average 17.32%), the

same as were up last month, as 19 issues were up at least 10% (20.88%; 16 were last month), and four

were up at least 25%. Four issues were down (five were last month), with an average decline of

8.89%, as one was down at least 10% (-20.60%; none were down last month). Dow, which was

recently spun off, had no year-end 2018 price.

Issues continued to vary, as trading was more centered. The spread between the best and worst issue

jumped to 38.69% from last month’s 23.01%, as the difference between Disney’s 23.36% gain and

Walgreen’s 15.33% drop due to its earnings miss showed the issue volatility between business lines.

Earnings and guidance dominated the market, as software issue Microsoft (MSFT) posted a 10.7%

gain (up 28.6% YTD), and fast food issue McDonald’s gained 4.1% (up 11.3% YTD). After the close on

the last day of the month, Apple announced with a beat, as the shares closed the month (pre-

announcement) up 5.6% (up 27.2% YTD), but it was trading in the aftermarket up another 5%. Energy

issues mostly disappointed in the earnings, with Exxon Mobile (XOM) down 0.6% (up 17.7% YTD), and

Chevron (CVX) down 2.5% (up 10.4% YTD). Health Care-related issues did poorly, as product maker

Pfizer (PFE) declined 4.4% (off 7.0% YTD), managed care issue UnitedHealth Group UNH) lost 5.7%

(off 6.4% YTD), and ethical drug issue Merck (MRK) fell 5.4% (up 3.0% YTD).

S&P MidCap 400

The MidCap 400 posted a 3.93% gain for the month (the same as the S&P 500), after last month’s

0.74% decline (up 4.08% the month before that). For the quarter, the index was up 7.37%, trailing the

large- and small-cap headline indices, but ahead of The Dow, as its YTD gain of 18.50% led all indices

covered here. Longer term, the one-year gain was 5.25%, about one-half that of the S&P 500, and

ahead of the S&P SmallCap 600; the two-year gain was 13.73%, with the three-year return at 34.83%.


MARKET ATTRIBUTES 7

The index posted gains in 9 of its 11 sectors, up from 6 last month. Sector spreads increased, as the

difference between the best and worst group widened, to 11.39% from last month’s 10.33% (and

12.85% the month before that), with the YTD spread increasing to 19.34%, down from last month’s

12.71% (21.00% the month before that). The one-year spread jumped to 46.38% (Communications

Services up 23%, with Energy down 23%), up from last month’s 29.55% (2018 was 36.14%).

For the month, Financials did the best, up 7.93% and up 19.12% YTD. Industrials was next, adding

6.60% for the month (up 23.41 YTD), followed by Information Technology, which added 6.66% and was

up 29.18% YTD (the best of any sector). Consumer groups were mixed, as Consumer Discretionary

added 6.50% for the month and was up 17.62% YTD, while Consumer Staples was up 2.21% for April

and up 10.80% YTD. Energy did the worst, off 3.46% for the month, and it was up 15.28% YTD; Health

Care was off 2.35% and up 10.37% YTD.

Breadth turned back to the positive side, as 289 issues gained (an average of 7.51% each), up from

last month’s 177, and 111 issues declined (average loss of 5.71%), down from 222 last month.

Seventy-one issues posted gains of at least 10% (average 15.96%), up from 20 last month, as 17 fell at

least 10% (-18.24%), down from 45 last month. Significant gains of at least 25% saw three gainers

(none last month), while three declined at least 25% (two last month). Year-to-date, 352 (334 last

month) issues gained (average 22.97%), as 47 (53) were down (-11.49%), with 286 (257) up at least

10% (26.91%) and 22 (same as last month) down at least 10% (-19.84%); 25% gains were reported for

130 (86) issues, with 5 (2) reporting a loss of at least 25% (-37.93%).

S&P SmallCap 600

The S&P SmallCap 600 added 3.81% for the month, a tick less than the mid- and small-cap indices, as

it continued to trail them; the index was up 15.40% YTD (versus 17.51% for the S&P 500 and 18.50%

for the S&P MidCap 400), the one-year return was 3.90%, compared with 11.25% and 5.5%, and the

five-year return was 45.29%, versus 56.36% and 45.34%, respectively. Jumping to a longer period, the

small-cap index has outperformed; the 10-year return was 338%, versus 238% and 251%, with the

gains from the year 2000 at 393% versus 101% and 343%, respectively. The moral of the story

appears to be that timing is everything, with the question being “should you,” or do you go along for the

ride (as you monitor the results).

For the month, 9 of the 11 sectors gained, up from 4 last month (9 the month before that). Sector

variance decreased, as the difference between the best and worst sector was 8.52%, down from last

month’s 11.70%, but up from the prior month’s 7.85%. Year-to-date, the variance was 17.69%, up from

last month’s 16.98%.

Information Technology did the best in April, adding 6.73%, and it was up 23.96% YTD (the best of any

sector). Financials was next, adding 6.34% for the month and up 12.25% YTD. Industrials added

6.11%, up 19.18% YTD. Consumer groups underperformed but were positive, as Consumer

Discretionary added 3.66% for the month and was up 13.85% YTD, and Consumer Staples was up

2.55% and up 10.36% YTD. Communication Services did the worst, off 1.89% for the month, and it

was up 11.07% YTD; Health Care was the other declining sector for the month, off 0.88% and up

6.27% YTD.

Breadth improved and became positive for the month, as 417 issues gained (an average gain of

7.64%), up from 197 gainers last month (420 the month before that). On the down side, 182 issues fell


MARKET ATTRIBUTES 8

(an average loss of 8.95%), down from last month’s 401 (181 the month before that). Gains of at least

10% were posted by 113 issues (average 16.04%), compared with 36 last month, as 43 issues posted

a decline of at least 10% (average -17.85%), compared with 135 last month. Year-to-date, 483 issues

(478 last month) were up (24.61%), 117 (123) were down (-15.37%), as 381 (322) had at least a 10%

gain (29.65%) and 58 (67) had at least a 10% fall (-25.74%).

S&P Global BMI

It was a good month for global markets, as they broadly moved up and posted a 3.11% April gain, after

March’s 0.78% and February’s 2.59%. The U.S. continued to outperform, and absent the U.S.’s 3.88%

gain, non-U.S. markets were up 2.23%. For the three-month period, markets were up 6.60%, and

excluding the U.S.’s 8.67%, they were up 4.29%; YTD, global markets were up 15.09%, and absent the

U.S.’s 17.87% gain, they were up 12.02%. Over the one-year period, global markets were up 2.06%,

but absent the U.S.’s 10.48% gain, they were off 6.38%. Longer-term yardsticks continued to show the

U.S. outperformance pattern, as the two-year global return was 14.58% with the U.S. (22.61%) and

6.35% without it, and the three-year return was up 29.66%, but absent the U.S. (42.47%), it was up

17.01%.

For April, the S&P Global BMI increased USD 1,637 billion (up USD 359 billion last month). Non-U.S.

markets increased USD 531 billion for the month (up USD 175 billion last month), as U.S. markets

increased USD 1,106 billion (up USD 184 billion last month).

Sector variance increased, as 8 of the 11 sectors increased (the same as last month). The spread

between the best (Information Technology, 6.00%) and worst (Health Care, -2.46%) sectors for the

month was 8.45% (the one-year average was 7.35%), up from last month’s 6.38%; the spread was

20.13% YTD (11.54% last month).

Emerging markets posted a 1.98% gain after last month’s 1.56% gain, as the three-month gain was

4.19%, the year-to-date return was up 12.23%, and the one-year period was down 5.76%. The two-

year return was 10.39%, and the three-year return was 28.73%. For April, 15 of the 23 markets were

up, compared with last month’s 11. Greece did the best, up 7.16% for the month and up 21.83% YTD,

followed by South Africa, which gained 6.81% and was up 10.45% YTD. Pakistan did the worst, falling

5.72% and down 2.79% YTD, with the Czech Republic down 4.41% for the month and down 0.91%

YTD.

Developed markets posted a consolidated 3.24% gain for the month, while the return excluding the

U.S. was 2.31%. For April, 24 of the 25 markets were up, up from last month’s 13. For the month,

developed markets gained 3.24% after last month’s 0.69% gain; absent the U.S., developed markets

were up 2.31% (-0.17% last month). For the three-month period, developed markets were up 6.88%

and up 4.31% without the U.S., as the YTD return was up 15.43% and up 11.96% excluding the U.S.

For the one-year period, developed markets were up 2.99% and down 6.58% excluding the U.S.

Austria did the best, up 7.66%, as its YTD return was 17.93% and its one-year return was -14.40%.

Germany was next best, up 6.56%, with a 13.71% YTD gain and a -11.93% one-year return. Finland

did the worst and was the only decliner for the month, down 0.34%, up 5.13% YTD, and down 12.88%

for the one-year period. New Zealand was next, up 0.05%, up 12.94% YTD, and up 9.49% for the one-

year period. Of note, Canada was up 2.41% (up 17.69% YTD), the UK added 2.04% (up 13.61% YTD),

and Japan was up 1.19% (up 6.95% YTD).


MARKET ATTRIBUTES 9

PERFORMANCE RECAP

Exhibit 2: Monthly Returns

S&P 500 PRICE 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%) 5-YEAR (%) FR 12/99 (%)

Energy 489.38 -0.01 15.40 -10.13 -2.60 -28.69 130.06

Materials 359.84 3.62 13.65 0.88 21.72 19.78 124.95

Industrials 657.97 4.05 21.36 8.37 34.93 43.84 140.68

Consumer Discretionary 952.14 5.65 21.83 15.37 51.43 88.13 218.12

Consumer Staples 593.64 2.33 13.75 14.77 10.83 30.80 185.34

Health Care 1033.35 -2.74 3.21 8.63 28.15 53.56 216.22

Financials 464.95 8.84 17.44 2.11 48.24 57.01 44.52

Information Technology 1381.76 6.36 26.96 21.00 98.30 131.22 71.13

Communication Services 167.49 6.22 20.69 12.99 0.22 8.03 -48.11

Utilities 297.75 0.88 10.85 13.91 21.15 35.66 109.04

Real Estate 223.07 -0.57 15.96 17.04 15.79 35.27 -

S&P 500 2945.83 3.93 17.51 11.25 42.63 56.36 100.50

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE

PRICE 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%) 5-YEAR (%) FR 12/99 (%)

Dow Jones Industrial Average 26592.91 2.56 14.00 10.06 49.62 60.38 131.30

S&P MIDCAP 400 PRICE 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%) 5-YEAR (%) FR 12/99 (%)

Energy 340.78 -3.46 15.28 -23.08 -29.32 -62.95 94.22

Materials 461.42 0.59 15.29 -5.98 22.81 25.84 315.81

Industrials 1063.79 6.80 23.41 11.23 48.64 53.50 497.58

Consumer Discretionary 756.73 6.50 17.62 -0.15 17.18 24.21 280.43


Health Care 1874.86 -2.35 10.53 10.07 55.18 106.95 959.75

Financials 991.76 7.93 19.12 -2.68 37.47 54.66 199.77


Communication Services 178.79 4.38 20.95 23.30 -33.35 -21.57 -62.21

Utilities 602.08 0.10 9.83 14.72 32.11 46.02 334.66

Real Estate 230.46 -0.86 12.69 7.29 - - -

S&P MidCap 400 1970.74 3.93 18.50 5.25 34.83 45.34 343.19

S&P SMALLCAP 600 PRICE 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%) 5-YEAR (%) FR 12/99 (%)

Energy 393.59 0.30 22.91 -22.05 -27.46 -78.73 153.28

Materials 491.44 2.03 20.95 -4.79 50.75 8.22 256.48

Industrials 1099.38 6.11 19.18 4.00 48.78 46.44 449.85

Consumer Discretionary 577.90 3.66 13.85 5.41 28.66 30.64 326.40


Health Care 2749.77 -0.88 6.27 3.24 73.04 117.07 1418.87

Financials 1065.26 6.34 12.25 1.19 44.52 49.42 263.68


Communication Services 3.11 -1.89 11.07 15.19 22.92 26.14 -95.77

Utilities 1013.48 0.71 9.16 12.72 31.77 73.30 439.95

Real Estate 196.59 0.18 14.90 9.31 - - -

S&P SmallCap 600 975.06 3.81 15.40 3.90 41.94 45.29 392.98

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of April 30, 2019. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative purposes. Returns shown are price returns.


MARKET ATTRIBUTES 10

Exhibit 3: Total Returns

INDEX 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 6-MONTH (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%) 5-YEAR (%) 10-YEAR (%)

S&P 500 4.05 18.25 9.76 13.49 51.58 73.32 316.02

S&P MidCap 400 4.02 19.09 8.91 6.99 41.47 57.35 309.20

S&P SmallCap 600 3.87 15.93 3.47 4.42 46.39 60.34 325.00

S&P Composite 1500 4.04 18.24 9.53 12.78 50.77 71.77 316.58

Dow Jones Industrial Average 2.66 14.79 7.14 12.63 60.80 81.04 319.87

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of April 30, 2019. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for

illustrative purposes.

Exhibit 4: S&P Global BMI, Emerging, Sorted by April Performance

BMI MEMBER 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 3-MONTH (%) 6-MONTH (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%)

Global 3.11 15.09 6.60 8.10 2.06 29.66

Global Ex-U.S. 2.23 12.02 4.29 7.56 -6.38 17.01

Emerging 1.98 12.23 4.19 14.03 -5.76 28.73

Greece 7.16 21.83 17.56 11.95 -21.96 9.21

South Africa 6.81 10.45 -1.23 18.23 -13.92 6.21

Saudi Arabia 5.63 19.53 9.09 18.25 14.88 45.64

Mexico 4.83 11.42 1.53 8.99 -9.36 -13.55

Russia 4.40 17.12 2.81 9.94 5.93 33.12

Qatar 4.27 -0.77 -3.81 -0.67 14.47 6.43

U.A.E. 4.07 7.95 4.75 2.32 1.18 -1.65

Egypt 3.88 23.20 10.76 21.60 -10.03 4.84

Taiw an 3.09 13.28 10.25 13.15 -1.63 36.07

China 2.30 19.41 8.49 20.16 -7.19 43.71

Thailand 1.72 10.65 0.37 5.57 -6.53 31.88

Hungary 1.02 6.91 0.93 16.14 -0.21 43.69

Philippines 0.96 8.07 -0.04 14.61 1.15 1.46

Poland 0.78 1.40 -4.15 8.57 -9.09 23.62

Indonesia 0.74 5.71 -3.82 19.23 4.53 18.07

Malaysia -0.22 1.54 -0.67 0.51 -14.62 -4.61

India -0.47 5.98 9.39 17.52 -2.35 39.25

Brazil -1.10 6.56 -9.38 2.25 -3.76 45.56

Chile -1.66 2.46 -8.45 2.69 -20.04 16.44

Peru -1.85 8.40 0.68 7.73 -3.75 52.73

Colombia -2.39 20.47 5.35 14.04 -11.67 3.81

Turkey -3.61 -6.60 -20.56 -0.68 -37.26 -48.86

Czech Republic -4.41 -0.91 -6.62 -1.59 -11.96 9.90

Pakistan -5.72 -2.79 -14.00 -20.63 -81.01 -78.88


illustrative purposes. Returns shown are price returns.



Exhibit 5: S&P Global BMI, Developed, Sorted by March Performance

BMI MEMBER 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 3-MONTH (%) 6-MONTH (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%)

Developed 3.24 15.43 6.88 7.48 2.99 29.79

Developed Ex-U.S. 2.31 11.96 4.31 5.87 -6.58 14.19

Austria 7.66 17.93 7.37 1.91 -14.40 39.97

Germany 6.56 13.71 6.48 4.81 -11.93 13.27

Luxembourg 6.04 0.93 -7.14 -10.42 -22.08 -3.84

Singapore 5.16 12.53 5.63 14.46 -9.15 17.88

Netherlands 4.84 19.40 10.78 14.62 -0.15 34.65

Ireland 4.67 15.50 8.72 4.44 -8.73 7.11

France 4.17 15.44 9.05 7.50 -6.53 24.02

Sw eden 3.91 12.12 5.56 6.02 -0.06 10.83

United States 3.88 17.87 8.67 8.61 10.48 42.47

Belgium 3.66 19.54 9.06 10.54 -10.04 -4.37

Israel 3.59 15.37 4.05 7.79 15.26 6.57

Spain 3.21 10.15 3.92 6.69 -10.62 4.82

Italy 2.42 16.19 7.64 12.45 -16.13 13.36

Canada 2.41 17.69 4.14 7.52 0.68 10.99

Portugal 2.30 11.23 4.34 5.63 -7.77 5.56

United Kingdom 2.04 13.61 5.49 6.49 -6.28 5.78

Australia 1.37 12.08 4.14 7.94 -1.00 12.75

Norw ay 1.35 9.92 2.26 -4.63 -7.17 22.44

Japan 1.19 6.95 1.07 0.14 -9.81 16.32

Sw itzerland 0.71 12.84 6.22 6.63 5.85 17.91

Hong Kong 0.71 14.95 6.91 22.06 0.81 28.46

Denmark 0.39 12.31 7.60 10.71 -2.57 8.37

Korea 0.14 4.46 -4.37 6.04 -20.38 14.69

New Zealand 0.05 12.94 7.04 16.78 9.49 27.52

Finland -0.34 5.13 -2.83 -0.57 -12.88 14.73


illustrative purposes. Returns shown are price returns.



Exhibit 6: Price-to-Earnings Ratios

INDEX 2016 2017 2018 ESTIMATED 2019

S&P 500 21.07 21.47 19.43 17.85

S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary 19.45 22.29 23.90 22.50

S&P 500 Consumer Staples 20.99 21.50 20.23 19.68

S&P 500 Energy -158.88 40.17 15.98 18.47

S&P 500 Financials 16.25 17.45 14.88 12.43

S&P 500 Health Care 18.77 21.21 20.65 15.71

S&P 500 Industrials 19.88 21.06 17.57 16.98

S&P 500 Information Technology 21.27 21.87 21.69 20.54

S&P 500 Materials 23.99 22.06 16.67 17.25

S&P 500 Communication Services 17.91 16.31 14.22 18.73

S&P 500 Utilities 18.06 18.40 19.32 19.01

S&P 500 Real Estate 25.78 36.40 34.85 43.31


S&P MidCap 400 25.73 24.33 20.53 17.43



S&P 400 Energy -9.56 -263.86 -258.17 27.75

S&P 400 Financials 20.15 19.51 15.83 12.58

S&P 400 Health Care 26.19 30.96 31.58 19.08

S&P 400 Industrials 20.87 22.44 19.15 16.62


S&P 400 Materials 23.95 18.64 12.64 13.51

S&P 400 Communication Services 82.36 -12.96 24.69 21.88

S&P 400 Utilities 20.07 20.16 23.54 21.05

S&P 400 Real Estate 28.30 31.33 24.60 32.92


S&P SmallCap 600 32.73 30.02 24.98 18.79



S&P 600 Energy -6.44 -27.40 53.48 26.85

S&P 600 Financials 21.61 19.29 17.50 13.29

S&P 600 Health Care 126.38 -513.58 179.25 37.90

S&P 600 Industrials 24.57 23.94 20.33 17.42


S&P 600 Materials 25.45 22.76 18.85 15.28

S&P 600 Communication Services 41.43 284.00 -311.00 62.20

S&P 600 Utilities 23.24 26.50 26.03 28.16

S&P 600 Real Estate 29.05 33.24 44.51 37.45

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of April 30, 2019. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative purposes.



Exhibit 7: Operating EPS Changes

INDEX

Q1 2018

OVER Q1 2017 (%)

Q2 2018

OVER Q2 2017 (%)

Q3 2018

OVER Q3 2017 (%)

Q4 2018E

OVER Q4 2017 (%)

Q1 2019E

OVER Q1 2018 (%)

2018

OVER 2017 (%)

2019E

OVER 2018E (%)

S&P 500 26.79 26.68 32.08 3.49 1.75 21.76 8.89

S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary 14.41 20.21 18.40 0.52 -3.58 13.05 6.20

S&P 500 Consumer Staples 13.02 13.54 9.07 -4.04 1.03 7.47 2.76

S&P 500 Energy 62.37 142.18 126.27 214.68 -35.56 130.40 -13.49

S&P 500 Financials 15.37 30.52 61.56 -34.64 19.16 17.53 19.71

S&P 500 Health Care 15.49 6.03 15.57 7.36 25.10 10.98 31.41

S&P 500 Industrials 40.19 20.95 22.11 14.39 -5.94 23.61 3.53

S&P 500 Information Technology 48.54 34.97 36.80 -0.87 -3.79 25.93 5.57

S&P 500 Materials 18.83 35.58 25.85 20.45 -21.31 25.61 -3.34

S&P 500 Communication Services 32.96 39.29 -22.63 11.86 -42.90 15.72 -24.11

S&P 500 Utilities 18.67 14.05 10.09 -23.53 -10.11 6.06 1.62

S&P 500 Real Estate 8.76 12.40 7.69 28.99 -15.44 14.29 -19.53

INDEX Q1 2018

OVER Q1 2017 (%)

Q2 2018 OVER

Q2 2017 (%)

Q3 2018 OVER

Q3 2017 (%)

Q4 2018E OVER

Q4 2017 (%)

Q1 2019E OVER

Q1 2018 (%)

2018 OVER

2017 (%)

2019E OVER

2018E (%)

S&P MidCap 400 25.21 26.63 50.41 -4.89 8.43 22.86 17.83

S&P 400 Consumer Discretionary 26.41 15.93 17.92 24.14 -16.63 20.91 -6.34

S&P 400 Consumer Staples 40.17 14.83 3.79 -4.69 -19.91 12.65 6.76

S&P 400 Energy 900.00 -376.50 102.93 -81.69 -43.45 17.50 1030.30

S&P 400 Financials 9.69 36.41 92.68 -31.35 24.94 20.93 25.88

S&P 400 Health Care 15.97 141.59 27.64 -88.81 85.96 15.01 65.54

S&P 400 Industrials 29.63 17.77 19.22 22.51 7.86 21.63 15.17

S&P 400 Information Technology 22.10 16.56 39.28 47.19 33.03 32.16 36.41

S&P 400 Materials 32.01 51.35 41.59 5.08 -1.78 32.87 -6.41

S&P 400 Communication Services 183.04 141.84 162.97 185.34 -25.27 163.62 12.85

S&P 400 Utilities 10.62 14.54 -8.96 -17.91 12.65 -2.25 11.81

S&P 400 Real Estate 33.72 52.87 102.82 -36.25 -43.48 28.71 -25.29

INDEX Q1 2018

OVER Q1 2017 (%)

Q2 2018 OVER

Q2 2017 (%)

Q3 2018 OVER

Q3 2017 (%)

Q4 2018E OVER

Q4 2017 (%)

Q1 2019E OVER

Q1 2018 (%)

2018 OVER

2017 (%)

2019E OVER

2018E (%)

S&P SmallCap 600 27.12 30.78 28.15 15.62 3.50 25.17 32.89

S&P 600 Consumer Discretionary 40.37 58.92 61.98 12.38 -12.73 38.56 15.55

S&P 600 Consumer Staples 111.37 -21.97 -46.85 -56.15 -47.56 -8.99 27.46

S&P 600 Energy 101.76 -508.75 143.52 365.57 -63.64 135.90 99.18

S&P 600 Financials 25.29 44.20 32.16 -37.73 16.41 13.16 31.70

S&P 600 Health Care 677.54 8284.62 -95.82 70.99 33.12 434.93 372.95

S&P 600 Industrials 8.91 35.49 24.96 18.50 4.47 22.26 16.66

S&P 600 Information Technology 6.00 -0.92 -13.36 1.61 24.80 -1.95 63.20

S&P 600 Materials 11.17 32.68 26.11 -24.95 -16.59 12.23 23.36

S&P 600 Communication Services 0.00 -300.00 -200.00 400.00 100.00 - 600.00

S&P 600 Utilities 27.61 22.27 -42.03 -4.38 -26.89 7.51 -7.55

S&P 600 Real Estate -62.29 -6.63 59.26 -102.94 50.00 -29.41 21.53


illustrative purposes.



Exhibit 8: Breadth of Change (Issues With Monthly Price Changes as Described by Type)

S&P 500

TYPE APRIL 2019 AVERAGE %

CHANGE 3-MONTH

AVERAGE % CHANGE

YTD AVERAGE %

CHANGE

Up 359 6.66 393 12.09 458 21.10

Dow n 145 -4.29 109 -7.97 44 -9.55

Up >= 10% 67 15.00 209 17.89 371 24.65

Dow n <= -10% 11 -14.25 28 -18.41 18 -17.21

Up >= 25% 2 55.61 23 34.14 152 34.90

Dow n <= -25% 1 -27.87 6 -29.04 1 -28.10

Up >= 50% 2 55.61 2 63.93 11 58.45

Dow n <= -50% 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00

S&P MIDCAP 400


CHANGE 3-MONTH

AVERAGE % CHANGE

YTD AVERAGE %

CHANGE

Up 289 7.51 300 12.15 352 22.97

Dow n 111 -5.71 99 -11.22 47 -11.49

Up >= 10% 71 15.96 155 18.94 286 26.91

Dow n <= -10% 17 -18.24 43 -19.46 22 -19.84

Up >= 25% 3 46.02 28 32.42 130 37.87

Dow n <= -25% 3 -29.96 9 -33.69 5 -32.93

Up >= 50% 1 78.24 1 53.71 18 58.81

Dow n <= -50% 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00

S&P SMALLCAP 600


CHANGE 3-MONTH

AVERAGE % CHANGE

YTD AVERAGE %

CHANGE

Up 417 7.64 377 14.00 483 24.61

Dow n 182 -7.22 224 -13.70 117 -15.37

Up >= 10% 113 16.04 203 22.03 381 29.65

Dow n <= -10% 43 -17.85 122 -21.83 58 -25.74

Up >= 25% 12 31.92 53 37.08 183 43.84

Dow n <= -25% 6 -37.65 31 -38.08 22 -41.19

Up >= 50% 0 0.00 4 85.85 47 69.25

Dow n <= -50% 1 -52.70 7 -56.02 5 -55.53

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE


CHANGE 3-MONTH

AVERAGE % CHANGE

YTD AVERAGE %

CHANGE

Up 19 7.05 24 11.24 25 17.32

Dow n 11 -4.78 5 -10.28 4 -8.89

Up >= 10% 4 14.84 12 16.83 19 20.88

Dow n <= -10% 1 -15.33 2 -19.80 1 -21.60

Up >= 25% 0 0.00 1 25.06 4 29.71

Dow n <= -25% 0 0.00 1 -25.86 0 0.00

Up >= 50% 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00

Dow n <= -50% 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of April 30, 2019. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative purposes.



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market attributes: u.s. equities april 2019...u.s. equities april 2019 market attributes 3 q1 2019...

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