market attributes: u.s. equities april 2017 · 2017-05-02 · market attributes u.s. equities april...

MARKET ATTRIBUTES

U.S. Equities April 2017 KEY HIGHLIGHTS

The S&P 500® gained 0.91% in April, bringing its YTD return to 6.49%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average® returned 1.34% for the month and was up 5.96% YTD.

The S&P MidCap 400® was up 0.76% for the month and up 4.35% YTD.

The S&P SmallCap 600® returned 0.85% in April, with a 1.60% return YTD.

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of April 28, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative purposes. Returns shown are price returns.

MARKET SNAPSHOT

It was a taxing month, as geopolitical issues at home and abroad dominated the news, and at times

reminded the world that there is a button that is not supposed to be pushed. Yet while concern,

dismay, and fear may have added to the April Fool’s Day celebration, from my bunker near Broad and

Wall, fear was scarce and VIX® closed at 10.82, almost one-half of its 10-year average of 20.71. So

with the “what, me worry” approach, the market embraced the earnings season, which came through

with a 76% beat rate, better than the historical 67% beat rate, as forward estimates through 2017 held

their ground, backed up by some positive guidance. At this point, it is hard to read 2018, so I think I’ll

start to pay much more attention to the estimates this time next quarter, when Q1 is history, Q2 has

70% reported, and the U.S. Congress is ready to go on its August recess, meaning I can better judge

any legislation (there are too many branches on that tree right now). As noted, it was earnings that

soothed the beast this month, as the S&P 500 posted a broad 0.91% gain, adding another notch but

not another new closing high. “May” the trades be with us.

Exhibit 1: Index Returns

INDEX 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%)

S&P 500 0.91 6.49 15.44

Dow Jones Industrial Average 1.34 5.96 17.82

S&P MidCap 400 0.76 4.35 18.55

S&P SmallCap 600 0.85 1.60 22.58

Contributor:

Howard Silverblatt, Index Investment Strategy, Senior Industry Analyst, [email protected]

S&P Dow Jones Indices’ Market Attributes® series provides market commentary highlighting developments across various asset classes.

http://spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500

http://www.spindices.com/indices/equity/dow-jones-industrial-average

http://www.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-400

http://www.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-600

mailto:[email protected]

U.S. Equities April 2017

MARKET ATTRIBUTES 2

For April 2017, the S&P 500 posted a 0.91% gain (1.03% with dividends), it was up 6.49% YTD

(7.16%), and the one-year return was 15.44% (17.92%). Since the Nov. 8, 2016, election, the index

was up 11.43% (12.49% with dividends) and has set 21 new closing highs, 13 in 2017—but none in

April (the last one was March 1, 2017). Geopolitical issues were numerous: a Syrian chemical attack

with the U.S. counter; attacks in St. Petersburg, Egypt, Stockholm, and Paris; North Korean missile

tests—successful and not, as Trump and Xi Jinping met; the UK served the divorce papers, while

Turkey voted right, with France set to stay center (I will be there for the vote—I’ll let you know).

Meanwhile, U.S. political events started to look like “business as usual.” The U.S. Senate approved

Gorsuch, with a small rule change (which may come back to haunt some) as he took a seat stage right.

Steve Bannon had his seat pulled but was at the party; three strikes and you are not out. Federal

courts blocked Trump’s executive order on sanctuary cites (as he said “see you at the Supreme

Court.”) The opening round of a tax issue drew low rates, but it will need 60 votes, meaning “let’s get

together” and compromise, or no deal. A budget wasn’t a budget yet, but there was no shutdown over

it; health care legislation and the budget will return.

Faster than a margin call, speedier than a programed trade, able to sink blue chips with a single

tweet—the power of social media was proven this month as a video of an airline passenger being

removed from a United Continental (UAL) flight went global, with the company’s initial protective

reaction turning into a nightmare media event. By the end of the week, the company apologized and

moved onto damage control. However, the speed and impact of the media spread was the overall

takeaway for traders, as “another one bit the dust.” The bar talk turned inward, with true fear returning

to the Street, as one of the most dreaded types of events, not seen since 2004, appeared on the

horizon. Spotify, the privately held Swedish web-based music streaming company, with an estimated

value of USD 8.5 billion, is considering doing an exchange listing of it shares, but without going through

the traditional IPO process, therefore depriving underwriters of hundreds of millions of dollars in fees,

as well as potential additional shares and easy trading revenue. The last such major event was a

Dutch deal (investors directly place a bid for shares before the offering) in 2004 by a company named

Google (now called Alphabet), when the offering was USD 85 (USD 42.50 adjusted for the March 2014

two-for-one), which individuals balked at as too high a share price at the time. The issue is now at USD

910 and the second-largest publicly owned issue in the world (Apple is first), up 2,040% from the

offering, or a 27.4% annualized return. In future bar talk, Trump gave up his quest for “wall funding”

(U.S.-Mexican border) for now, permitting a budget deal to move forward, as Congress passed a

stopgap spending bill (on the last day of the month) to see the government through to May 5, 2017,

which is Cinco de Mayo, a Mexican holiday.

Trump and company blamed Syria for a chemical attack that killed at least 85 people and launched an

air strike against the airfield where the attack came from. The U.S. Senate voted along party lines to

change the rules on the Neil Gorsuch Supreme Court nomination. Gorsuch’s approval and swearing in

returned the court to a 5-to-4 “conservative” seating, which was 4-to-4 after Justice Scalia’s death in

February 2016. Trump removed Steve Bannon from the National Security Council and added more

traditional members, as internal battles for power were reported. Trump proposed a 20% tariff on

Canadian softwood timber imports (used for residential homes, approximately USD 5 billion per year).

A federal judge stopped a Trump executive order to limit funding for “sanctuary cities”; it was the third

time a Trump executive order was blocked by the courts. Trump’s opening tax reform bill was seen as

a starting place, with few surprises; the market did not react to the note (trading was volatile at the

release, as short-term traders had taken positions). Trump’s position was to reduce the U.S. corporate

tax rate to 15% from the current 35% (2016 effective rate for S&P 500 constituents was 26.09% for all


MARKET ATTRIBUTES 3

income taxes). Future foreign earnings wouldn’t be taxed (or would be taxed at a low rate), and there

would be a one-time tax on profits abroad. Individuals would be reduced to 35% from 39.6%, the

current seven tax brackets would be reduced to three (10%, 25%, and 35%; no brackets yet), most

deductions would be eliminated (for state and local taxes), and the alternative minimum tax and estate

taxes would be repealed.

In central bank activity, the non-event of the FOMC releasing its notes from the March 15, 2017,

meeting, at which it had increased interest rates, became an event, as its closed-door discussions

centered on how and when to unwind the Fed’s USD 4.5 trillion balance sheet. Additionally, remarks

on if the stock market was overvalued and if market participants were putting too much emphasis on

income tax reform were noted. The Fed Beige Book said economic activities in all 12 areas increased,

as one-half reported loan volume improvements. Additional comments were about continued regional

and specific labor shortages. ECB President Mario Draghi said it was too early to reduce the bank’s

monetary stimulus, showing it was at a different point in the cycle than the U.S. Fed; the ECB met and

made no changes, but viewed the economy as stronger. The Bank of Japan kept its rates and policy

unchanged, as it raised its 2017 GDP forecast to 1.6%, from the previous 1.5%.

In global events, terror attacks continued: a subway bombing in St. Petersburg, Russia, killed 14

people; in Stockholm, a truck drove into a crowded shopping area, killing four, and Swedish officials

labeled it a terror attack; in Egypt, two bombs exploded in churches on Palm Sunday (a holiday), killing

at least 43 people; and on the Champs-Elysees in Paris, a gunman killed a police officer ahead of the

French elections. That election resulted in centrist (independent and former investment banker at

Rothschild) Macron (23.8%) and far-right Le Pen (21.5%) wining; the two will face each other in a runoff

election on May 7, 2017. North Korea fired another test missile (medium-range ballistic) ahead of

Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and later in the month the country launched

another test missile, which exploded almost immediately after its launch. Turkish President Erdogan

narrowly won approval (51.2%) for constitutional changes permitting him to consolidate some powers;

Turkish equity markets moved up on the news. UK Prime Minister May called for early elections (three

years early, on June 8, 2017) to strengthen her negotiating hand on their EU withdrawal. The UK

market fell 1.7% on the news (for the day), and the pound ticked up.

In employment and layoffs, the ADP March private employment report posted 263,000 net new jobs,

again easily beating the 170,000 expected, but the March employment report missed by a wide margin,

as the full economy created a net 98,000 new jobs, when 175,000 were expected; the unemployment

rate decreased to 4.5% from last month’s 4.7%. The JOLTS report for February came in with 5.743

million open jobs to fill, up from last month’s 5.625 million. Amazon.com (AMZN) said it would create

30,000 part-time jobs in the U.S. over the next year, and Wal-Mart (WMT) said it will cut several

hundred jobs in its international and technology areas, in addition to the large cuts earlier this year and

last.

In U.S. economics, the March PMI Manufacturing Report came in at 53.3, and the ISM Manufacturing

Index for March came in at 57.2. The March PMI Services Index came in at 52.8, and the ISM Non-

Manufacturing Index for March came in at 55.2. The PPI for March posted a year-over-year 2.3% gain,

as Core PPI came in up 1.6%. The March CPI was up 2.4% year-over-year, and Core CPI was up

2.0%. Construction Spending for February came in up 3.0%; the year-over-year gain was 3.0%. U.S.

auto sales in March declined, as General Motors (GM) reported a 1.6% decline and Ford (F) reported a

7.2% decline. Factory Orders for February came in up 1.0%, and Durable Goods Orders increased


MARKET ATTRIBUTES 4

0.7% in March. Industrial Production for March increased 0.5%, with Capacity Utilization increasing to

76.1%. Retail Imports for March posted a 0.2% decline, with the year-over-year rate up 4.2%; exports

increased 0.2%, and their year-over-year gain was 3.6%. The Leading Indicator Report for March

came in up 0.4%, when a lower 0.2% gain was expected. The Q1 2017 Employment Cost Index

increased 0.8%; the year-over-year rate was 2.4%. The first reading for Q1 2017 GDP (to be updated

on May 26, 2017, with the final on June 29, 2017) came in with a 0.7% increase, when a stronger 1.1%

gain was expected, as big-ticket items (such as cars) slowed; Q4 2016 was 2.1%.

Housing remained positive overall, as the April Housing Market Index missed, but came in strong.

Housing Starts for March came in lower than expected, but Permits beat, as did New Home Sales. The

FHFA House Price Index rose 0.8%, and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index for

February posted a 6.9% year-over-year gain.

Earnings supported the S&P 500, while plans for taxes and global political votes took a back seat. To

date, 290 issues, representing 63% of the market value, have reported, with 220 issues beating their

operating earnings estimates (75.9%; the historical average is 67%), 48 missing, and 22 meeting.

Financials (off 0.03% for the month—the start of the earnings season) had 41 of the 51 issues beating

estimates, while all 28 of the 31 health care issues beat (up 1.22% for the month). Information

technology (up 2.20% for this reporting season) had 31 of the 36 beating, and hopes are running high

for the sector, which is expected to contribute the most to the S&P 500. On the sales front, the results

have been positive, as 186 of the 289 issues have beaten (64.4%); the quarter is expected to post a

21.2% year-over-year increase (Q1 2016 was near the bottom of the earnings pullback) and be up

4.1% over the Q4 2016 period. Guidance was less than hoped for, but this was expected, as few

wanted to go down the multi-pathed road of income tax reform (or repatriation). Bottom-up estimates

held up for Q2 2017, though they declined 0.8% for the month (more noise on the line than a shift),

implying a new record quarter for earnings. Estimates for the second half also held up; they were up

0.1% from the start of the earnings season, also implying a new quarterly and annual record. At this

point, 2018 remains mostly a hope, with few using it for current trades.

Interest rates decreased in April, as the expected speed of U.S. interest rate increases slowed, while

global rates were seen as holding near their lows. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond closed at 2.28%,

down from last month’s 2.39% and down from year-end 2016’s 2.45%. The 30-year U.S. Treasury

Bond closed at 2.95%, down from last month’s 3.01% (3.07% at year-end 2016). The euro closed at

1.0897, up from last month’s 1.0656 (1.0520 at year-end 2016); the British pound sterling closed at

1.2951, up from last month’s 1.2548 (1.2345); the yen close at 111.54 from last month’s 111.39

(117.00; reverse reference, which is usually used); and the yuan closed at 6.8940, up from last month’s

6.8866 (6.9448). Gold closed at USD 1,269.50, up from last month’s USD 1,251.6 (year-end 2016

USD 1,152.00). Oil declined, as production supply concerns continued, to close at USD 49.19, down

from last month’s USD 50.85 (USD 53.89). U.S. pump prices were basically flat, even as oil declined,

closing the month at USD 2.449, up from last month’s USD 2.315 per U.S. gallon (2.309). VIX, “the

fear factor,” was volatile; it declined to close at 10.82 from last month’s 12.37 (14.04).

On an issue level, the automakers’ market value race continued, as Tesla’s (TSLA) USD 51.2 billion in

market value, which recently passed Ford’s USD 45.7 billion, approached General Motors’ USD 53.2

billion. The takeaway was the higher valuation of Tesla’s expected earnings compared with older, more

established General Motors and Ford (due to new technology). Aluminum producer Arconic’s (ARNC)

CEO Klaus Kleinfeld resigned after he sent a letter to hedge fund Elliott Management’s President


MARKET ATTRIBUTES 5

Singler, which reportedly contained a vague threat. Auto maker General Motors ceased operations in

Venezuela, as its plant was seized by the government; GM then laid off its 2,700 Venezuelan workers.

Telecommunication services issue Verizon (VZ) reported its first decline in wireless subscribers in a

decade for the Q1 2017 period, as competition continued to mount in the field.

Of note, the power of social media was proven again this month, as a video of an airline passenger

being removed from a United Continental flight went global, with the company’s initial protective

reaction turning into a nightmare media event. By the end of the week the company apologized and

moved into damage control, as it reached an “agreement” with the passenger. However, the speed and

impact of the media spread was the overall takeaway for most. Officials working on the Aramco IPO

were reported to be shy of the USD 2 trillion valuation, as reports said the value was pegged near USD

1.5 trillion (Apple and Alphabet combined are worth USD 1.4 trillion).

INDEX REVIEW

S&P 500

Within the S&P 500, April brought worries, concern, and profits, as the Street fought to get back to

basics—earnings—and won. After last month’s halt in the action, when the S&P 500 declined 0.04%,

Q1 2017 earnings started to come in and were much better overall than expected. There were big

name misses (Goldman Sachs [GS; -2.6% for the month], International Business Machines [IBM; -8.0%

for the month]) as well as hits (Alphabet [GOOG/L; up 9.2% for the month], Amazon [up 4.3% for the

month]), but earnings easily beat estimates and many of the whisper numbers. The reality check of

beats easily overpowered the geopolitical fears, as the S&P 500 posted a broad 0.91% gain (1.03%

with dividends) to continue its Trump rally, which was now seen more for its economic potential than its

political changes. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 was up 6.49% (7.16% with dividends), and the gain since

the U.S. Nov. 8, 2016, election was 11.43% (12.49% with dividends). Helping the index was the start of

income tax reform, which the Street hopes will add money (via savings) to corporate accounts;

hopefully they will spend some of it and share a little with shareholders via buybacks and dividends.

In sectors, return variance increased, as earnings, guidance, and business models affected groups.

For the month, 7 of the 11 sectors posted gains, up from March’s three (nine were up in February).

Telecommunication services did the worst, off 4.38%, as competition continued, resulting in a decline in

subscriptions; Verizon was off 5.8% for the month and AT&T (T) was down 4.6% for the month. The

sector was down 9.22% YTD. Energy fell 2.93%, as oil continued down; the sector was off 10.02%

YTD, the worst of any group, but initial energy earnings appeared to be improving. Information

technology did the best, up 2.44% and up 14.90% YTD, as it recovers from its flat performance over the

period after the election to the end of the year. Earnings beats helped, as did the belief that

Washington would not be out to get them after many technology issues appeared to oppose Trump

before the election. Of note was Apple (AAPL), which was flat for the month, but up 24.0% YTD.

Consumer discretionary issues continued to do well, as consumers were seen as spending and

potentially getting some help from tax reform, with retail stores remaining under pressure from web-

based completion; the sector gained 2.46% for the month, and was up 10.64% YTD.

Breadth increased to be positive, after March’s decline. For the month, 280 issues gained (an average

gain of 3.99%), up from 239 issues last month (382 the month before that), and 225 were down

(averaging a 3.74% decline), down from last month’s 265 (123 before that). For the month, 12 issues

moved up at least 10% (an average of 13.90%), the same as last month, and 12 declined at least 10%


MARKET ATTRIBUTES 6

(an average fall of 13.84%), down from six in March. No issue gained at least 25% (none did last

month), and none fell at least 25% (none did so last month). Year-to-date, breadth was strongly

positive, although it declined, as 345 issues gained (350 were up last month), with 176 of them up at

least 10% (141 last month), and 36 of those up at least 25% (20). On the down side, 159 issues

declined for the quarter (154), 49 were down at least 10% (32), and four of those were down at least

25% (the same as last month). Trading volatility increased, but remained calm (although it did not

always feel that way). Trading declined 2% for the month, after last month’s 4% decline; it remained

6% below the yearly average and 3% below the five-year average. Volatility, as measured by the high

over the low, declined to 2.97% from March’s 3.39%; it was lower than the one-year 3.91% average,

and significantly lower than the five-year 5.36% average. From the Nov. 8, 2016, election, 402 issues

were up, 103 were down, and 10 of the 11 sectors were positive (energy was down 2.26%).

The Dow®

The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the way up this month; it outperformed the other headline

indices to close at 20,940.51, up 1.34% from March’s 20,663.22 close. The index, however, failed to

reach a new high, as it closed off 2.14% off of its closing high of 21,115.55 set on March 1, 2017.

Market participants, however, weren’t complaining (or at least not any more than unusual), as its three-

month gain also topped the list, at 5.42% (even as March posted a 0.72% decline), with a gain of 5.96%

YTD. Breadth turned positive, with 16 of the 30 issues gaining (an average advance of 3.79%), an

improvement over last month’s 13 winners; 14 declined (an average of -2.06%), down from 17 last

month. Considering the gain, breadth was not strong, meaning higher-weighted issues did better.

Earnings and guidance determined the fate of most issues in The Dow. One issue gained at least 10%,

earth-moving machinery maker Caterpillar (CAT), up 10.2%, accounting for 23.5% of the gain. Fast

food restaurant issue McDonald’s (MCD) added 7.96%, with scotch tape maker 3M (MMM) up 2.4%,

but accounting for 11.1% of the gain. On the down side was business systems maker International

Business Machines, which did the worst, more due to poor sales than earnings, as it declined 8.0% for

the month. Telecommunication services issue Verizon fell 7.0%, as it reported its subscription base

declined for the quarter. Apple was flat for the month but remained up 24.0% YTD and was 1.2% away

from its all-time high. Energy issues declined, as Exxon Mobil (XOM) lost 0.9% and Chevron (CVX)

lost 1.7%, but both of their earnings reports (posted on the last day of the month) appeared to give

hope that things were turning around (even as oil declined for the month). Of note was money

manager and investment bank Goldman Sachs, which declined 2.6% and was off 6.5% YTD.

S&P MidCap 400

The S&P MidCap 400 added 0.76% for April, after its March decline of 0.56%, and it trailed the other

headline indices (but a gain is a gain). The sector was up 4.35% YTD, with its one-year gain of 18.56%

still benefiting from prior period gains. Of the 11 sectors, 7 gained, up from 6 in March, but still lower

than February’s 9. Energy did the worst, off 8.21% and down 21.24% YTD, the worst of any group.

Telecommunication services continued to do poorly, down 4.33%, after last month’s 9.27% decline and

February’s 11.81% fall (it was up 6.17% in January), leaving it off 23.45% for the three-month period

and off 18.74% YTD. Health care did the best, up 3.73%, as its services and products were seen as

continuing to be necessary even if Congress adjusts current legislation. The sector was up 13.59%

YTD, the best of any group. Consumer discretionary underperformed, up 0.53%, as most large- and

small-cap discretionary issues outperformed their benchmarks; the sector was up 4.77% YTD, on par

with the S&P 400 MidCap’s 4.35%. Breadth turned positive after last month’s negative reading, as 235


MARKET ATTRIBUTES 7

issues gained (an average of 4.35%), up from last month’s 185 issues, with 162 issues down (an

average of -4.91%), down from last month’s 211. Moves of at least 10% increased more on the down

side, as 20 issues gained at least 10% (with an average gain of 14.63%), the same as last month, but

22 issues declined at least 10% (an average decline of 15.68%), up from last month’s 19. Year-to-date,

238 issues were up (235 last month) and 161 were down (162), and there were 120 issues that gained

at least 10% and 58 that fell at least 10%.

S&P SmallCap 600

The S&P SmallCap 600 gained 0.85% after last month’s 0.27% decline, as sector variance was high

and issues reacted to earnings and guidance. For the month, 8 of the 11 sectors posted gains, up from

last month’s 6, and the same as February (8). Year-to-date, the S&P SmallCap 600 trailed the other

indices, up 1.60% compared with the large-cap gain of 6.49%. Over the one-year period, however, the

group still led, with a 22.38% gain (compared with the large-cap’s 15.44%). Energy did the worst of any

sector in any index, off 12.61%, and it was down 23.39% YTD—also the worst of any sector in any

index. Information technology was the next-worst sector, but it declined a relatively minor 0.55% for the

month and was up 4.24% YTD. Consumer staples did well, up 3.73%, which was significantly better

than its mid- (-0.31%) and large-cap (0.85%) cousins; the gain pushed the group into the black YTD, up

2.68%. Small-cap telecommunication services also bucked the trend, doing the best, up 9.42%, as

both mid- and large-cap versions reported losses; the sector was up 4.14% YTD, while mid- and large-

caps remain in the red. Breadth turned positive, as 345 issues gained (an average gain of 5.86%),

down from March’s 275 (February was 318), and 251 issues declined (an average 6.60% decline),

down up from last month’s 322. Volatility remained high, with 65 issues advancing at least 10% (an

average gain of 15.49%), compared with 61 last month, and 58 declining at least 10% (an average loss

of 17.27%), up from 54 last month. Extreme movements had six issues down at least 25% (the same

as last month), and one fell at least 25% (five did last month). Year-to-date, breadth was negative,

even though the index was positive, with 280 issues up and 319 down, as 53 issues were up at least

25% and 46 were down at least 25%—which could make for some significant moves for issue traders.

S&P Global BMI

Global markets were active. For the month, they gained 1.46%, as 35 of the 47 markets gained,

compared with 36 gainers in March, when the S&P Global BMI was up 0.92%. The gain came as the

U.S. continued to underperform, after the strong U.S. post-election gain that lasted through the end of

2016. For April, the U.S. posted a 0.94% gain, while the ex-U.S. global gain was 2.02%. Year-to-date,

global markets were up 7.86%; excluding the U.S. gain of 6.28%, they were up 9.67%. Over time,

however, the U.S. still outperformed, with its gain since the U.S. Nov. 8, 2016, election at 12.08%;

global markets were at 11.06% with the U.S. and 9.97% without it. Over the three-year period, the

variance remained dramatic, as global markets were up 10.71%, but absent the 25.58% gain from the

U.S., they were down 2.46%. Emerging markets continued to do better than developed, posting a

2.08% gain for April after their 1.93% March advance, with 14 of the 22 markets gaining, down from 15

in March. Year-to-date, emerging markets gained 13.04%, bringing their one-year gain to 16.61%, but

they were still shy of a two-year profit, at -5.28%. Poland led the gains, up 9.92%, bringing it to 29.93%

YTD. Turkey was next, up 9.01%, as its president consolidated power after winning a national election;

the country was up 19.62% YTD, but its one-year change was -12.80%. Greece was next, adding

7.06% and up 9.50% YTD. Peru did the worst, off 3.64% (up 1.54% YTD), followed by Egypt, which

was off 2.98% (up 2.93% YTD), and Qatar, which declined 2.19% (and was down 3.98% YTD).


MARKET ATTRIBUTES 8

Developed markets posted a 1.39% gain and were up 2.00% excluding the U.S., as 21 of the 25

markets posted gains. Austria did the best, up 8.61% and up 20.93% YTD. Denmark was next, up

7.43% (up 13.63% YTD), followed by Finland, which added 5.48% (up 10.40% YTD), and France,

which gained 5.30% for the month (and was up 12.76% YTD). Luxembourg did the worst, off 3.31%

but up 8.38% YTD, and Canada was down 2.41%, falling into the red YTD, with a -0.15% decline. The

UK gained 2.56% (up 6.81% YTD), Germany was up 3.16% (11.75% YTD), and Japan added 1.13%

(up 5.37% YTD).


MARKET ATTRIBUTES 9

PERFORMANCE RECAP

Exhibit 2: Monthly Returns

S&P 500 PRICE 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%) 5-YEAR (%) FR 12/99 (%)

Energy 498.95 -2.93 -10.02 -0.69 -27.30 -6.41 134.55

Materials 333.17 1.35 6.73 12.70 10.90 43.76 108.28

Industrials 569.18 1.71 5.78 16.72 24.43 77.97 108.20

Consumer Discretionary 716.73 2.35 10.64 13.99 41.62 98.56 139.46

Consumer Staples 566.54 0.85 6.53 5.77 24.83 61.02 172.31

Health Care 872.26 1.46 9.46 8.18 29.62 100.86 166.92

Financials 390.76 -0.97 1.09 24.59 31.96 88.29 21.46

Information Technology 928.33 2.44 14.90 33.23 55.35 90.62 14.97

Telecommunication Services 160.33 -4.38 -9.22 -4.07 3.41 17.78 -50.33

Utilities 262.16 0.73 6.21 6.67 19.44 44.65 84.06

Real Estate 195.37 -0.02 2.70 1.41 18.48 34.25 -

S&P 500 2384.20 0.91 6.49 15.44 26.55 70.55 62.27

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE

PRICE 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%) 5-YEAR (%) FR 12/99 (%)

Dow Jones Industrial Average 20940.51 1.34 5.96 17.82 26.29 58.48 82.14

S&P MIDCAP 400 PRICE 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%) 5-YEAR (%) FR 12/99 (%)

Energy 399.65 -8.21 -21.24 -17.11 -56.55 -43.11 127.77

Materials 461.26 0.22 7.74 22.77 25.80 68.09 315.66

Industrials 885.38 2.41 5.57 23.71 27.76 93.15 397.36


Consumer Staples 1718.88 -0.38 1.68 9.29 32.44 111.59 886.64

Health Care 1484.90 3.73 13.59 22.90 63.91 162.39 739.33

Financials 915.83 -0.31 1.43 26.94 42.82 79.57 176.82

Information Technology 2024.46 1.60 8.88 32.55 47.30 76.74 140.25

Telecommunication Services 212.85 -4.33 -18.73 -20.66 -6.63 20.21 -55.01

Utilities 514.00 0.29 5.23 12.78 24.66 72.47 271.07

Real Estate 232.48 0.99 1.44 - - - -

S&P MidCap 400 1732.76 0.76 4.35 18.55 27.79 74.80 289.67

S&P SMALLCAP 600 PRICE 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%) 5-YEAR (%) FR 12/99 (%)

Energy 579.31 -12.61 -24.39 -5.91 -69.27 -55.52 272.79

Materials 478.66 0.75 -1.46 33.12 7.10 65.19 247.21

Industrials 934.39 2.07 2.49 26.68 28.27 95.16 367.34


Consumer Staples 1692.09 3.49 2.68 14.72 37.27 104.48 748.80

Health Care 1956.86 2.07 11.63 17.62 58.90 141.90 980.90

Financials 957.05 -0.50 -3.79 27.67 38.51 77.37 226.74

Information Technology 633.59 -0.55 4.24 34.62 67.92 137.17 131.69

Telecommunication Services 3.02 9.42 4.14 21.29 28.00 33.85 -95.89

Utilities 876.16 2.38 5.71 15.96 48.21 83.22 366.79

Real Estate 203.23 1.05 1.10 - - - -

S&P SmallCap 600 851.36 0.85 1.60 22.58 30.58 86.16 330.44



MARKET ATTRIBUTES 10

Exhibit 3: Total Returns

INDEX 1-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%) 5-YEAR (%) 10-YEAR (%)

S&P 500 1.03 7.16 17.92 34.83 89.81 99.55

S&P MidCap 400 0.84 4.81 20.46 33.97 88.83 130.91

S&P SmallCap 600 0.90 1.98 24.26 36.10 98.90 129.51

S&P Composite 1500 1.01 6.81 18.30 34.78 90.03 102.94

Dow Jones Industrial Average 1.45 6.71 20.90 36.12 79.74 108.74

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of April 28, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative purposes.

Exhibit 4: S&P Global BMI, Emerging, Sorted by April Performance

BMI MEMBER 1-MONTH (%) 3-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%) 2-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%)

Global 1.46 5.06 7.86 13.16 4.91 10.71

Global Ex-U.S. 2.02 5.80 9.57 10.02 -3.30 -2.46

Emerging 2.08 7.56 13.04 16.61 -5.28 1.69

Poland 9.92 17.09 29.93 26.82 -5.19 -16.52

Turkey 9.01 16.42 19.62 -12.80 -14.73 -23.39

Greece 7.06 13.29 9.50 11.33 -33.03 -67.11

Philippines 5.24 5.20 11.06 2.80 -9.60 2.23

Hungary 4.69 0.61 4.29 14.03 32.72 40.07

South Africa 4.34 5.19 8.24 7.52 -13.26 -6.31

Malaysia 4.11 9.52 13.44 -2.60 -17.81 -26.54

Czech Republic 3.63 7.76 10.85 -2.80 -11.35 -24.15

India 3.39 17.12 23.39 26.65 18.35 44.05

Indonesia 2.54 8.26 8.01 14.34 6.14 -3.35

China 2.15 7.71 14.32 18.53 -14.62 18.57

Taiwan 1.31 9.02 14.65 25.93 0.95 11.12

Mexico 0.64 14.46 16.19 -4.75 -11.49 -17.47

Russia 0.49 -3.00 -1.54 18.34 7.15 -5.05

Brazil -0.24 -0.46 10.25 28.58 3.05 -21.28

U.A.E. -0.34 -2.85 -1.45 -0.45 -17.66 -28.32

Chile -0.79 9.34 14.25 15.14 4.15 -2.96

Thailand -1.25 1.47 5.22 13.49 -1.84 2.93

Colombia -1.52 -0.19 3.15 -1.54 -19.61 -42.98

Qatar -2.19 -5.36 -3.98 1.23 -17.83 -20.14

Egypt -2.98 3.84 2.93 -19.34 -37.00 -39.29

Peru -3.64 -5.71 1.54 10.62 5.84 -4.06




Exhibit 5: S&P Global BMI, Developed, Sorted by April Performance

BMI MEMBER 1-MONTH (%) 3-MONTH (%) YTD (%) 1-YEAR (%) 2-YEAR (%) 3-YEAR (%)

Developed 1.39 4.79 7.32 12.79 6.05 11.71

Developed Ex-U.S. 2.00 5.36 8.73 8.46 -2.87 -3.39

Austria 8.61 15.65 20.93 25.36 14.19 -0.74

Denmark 7.43 8.55 13.63 -2.09 0.43 10.55

Finland 5.48 10.28 10.40 14.26 8.63 3.17

France 5.30 12.00 12.76 13.23 3.45 -4.99

Sweden 4.58 6.73 12.21 10.92 2.18 -2.78

Ireland 4.49 8.09 10.87 5.83 13.69 21.71

Spain 4.14 15.26 17.92 12.35 -9.28 -19.91

Netherlands 3.93 12.98 15.27 16.61 8.95 15.55

Germany 3.16 8.19 11.75 14.41 1.98 -3.40

Belgium 3.12 8.77 9.26 2.91 2.65 6.34

Switzerland 2.91 6.43 10.80 8.59 -4.21 -2.59

Italy 2.82 12.49 11.92 6.44 -11.07 -23.81

United Kingdom 2.56 5.43 6.81 1.88 -12.00 -17.07

Hong Kong 2.56 6.77 13.92 12.49 -10.34 5.36

Portugal 1.19 11.06 9.92 -2.86 -15.00 -43.65

Japan 1.13 1.62 5.37 9.32 3.28 20.47

United States 0.94 4.36 6.28 16.20 13.56 25.58

Korea 0.83 9.12 16.23 13.91 -0.62 1.72

Israel 0.74 7.39 9.71 -3.75 -10.61 -5.46

New Zealand 0.67 -3.61 3.98 2.00 5.66 0.02

Norway 0.35 -4.89 0.68 5.25 -13.42 -31.29

Singapore -0.03 4.63 12.85 6.34 -12.62 -12.18

Australia -0.83 4.11 8.36 11.22 -2.15 -12.83

Canada -2.41 -3.61 -0.15 2.69 -9.46 -15.19

Luxembourg -3.31 7.19 8.38 9.78 -10.99 -24.99




Exhibit 6: Price-to-Earnings Ratios

INDEX 2014 2015 ESTIMATED 2016 ESTIMATED 2017

S&P 500 14.73 22.69 22.44 18.41

S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary 16.89 22.17 21.52 20.43

S&P 500 Consumer Staples 15.96 22.18 22.37 20.91

S&P 500 Energy 12.03 -38.97 -142.97 30.89

S&P 500 Financials 13.46 16.83 16.43 13.95

S&P 500 Health Care 14.68 21.02 20.55 16.57

S&P 500 Industrials 14.76 19.49 21.03 18.50

S&P 500 Information Technology 14.19 22.20 24.44 18.76

S&P 500 Materials 16.20 38.50 25.59 18.52

S&P 500 Telecommunication Services 43.21 14.02 16.26 13.58

S&P 500 Utilities 14.84 22.21 19.18 18.36

S&P 500 Real Estate - - - 38.01


S&P MidCap 400 18.71 30.41 26.85 20.35



S&P 400 Energy 22.82 -4.95 -7.53 -84.85

S&P 400 Financials 18.61 25.05 20.43 16.53

S&P 400 Health Care 21.24 27.39 29.75 20.24

S&P 400 Industrials 15.55 21.56 22.04 19.56


S&P 400 Materials 17.93 28.08 25.80 18.10

S&P 400 Telecommunication Services 34.07 13.29 66.72 -22.48

S&P 400 Utilities 15.52 23.42 21.11 20.49

S&P 400 Real Estate - - - 32.24


S&P SmallCap 600 22.04 42.43 33.26 21.96



S&P 600 Energy 77.57 -2.48 -4.87 -59.11

S&P 600 Financials 20.10 26.37 20.79 17.35

S&P 600 Health Care 21.59 43.30 141.09 33.41

S&P 600 Industrials 17.85 24.72 25.19 20.50


S&P 600 Materials 22.56 46.69 25.07 19.74

S&P 600 Telecommunication Services 24.20 36.50 43.14 50.33

S&P 600 Utilities 16.69 23.40 24.56 22.48

S&P 600 Real Estate - - - 35.47




Exhibit 7: Operating EPS Changes

INDEX Q1 2016

OVER Q1 2015 (%)

Q2 2016 OVER

Q2 2015 (%)

Q3 2016 OVER

Q3 2015 (%)

Q4 2016E OVER

Q4 2015

Q1 2017E OVER

Q1 2016

2016 OVER

2015 (%)

2017E OVER

2016

S&P 500 -7.13 -1.68 12.78 20.99 21.19 5.78 21.85

S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary 20.12 12.48 5.69 1.92 -0.39 9.40 5.38

S&P 500 Consumer Staples 0.00 -1.25 8.99 8.83 4.73 4.15 6.95

S&P 500 Energy -464.58 -303.92 119.25 105.00 209.59 74.54 562.75

S&P 500 Financials -11.49 -6.19 17.25 16.50 24.50 3.43 17.74

S&P 500 Health Care 3.35 13.02 11.47 10.97 16.49 9.61 24.01

S&P 500 Industrials -5.31 2.59 -2.98 -7.62 7.31 -3.29 13.63

S&P 500 Information Technology -12.24 -6.66 2.78 13.28 31.88 0.00 30.28

S&P 500 Materials -45.95 29.55 198.40 674.29 180.84 53.54 38.17

S&P 500 Telecommunication Services -3.45 -34.69 -9.09 -26.59 -2.14 -18.91 19.78

S&P 500 Utilities -4.69 -9.76 15.19 1400.00 -3.28 21.51 4.46

S&P 500 Real Estate - - - - - -100.00 -100.00

INDEX Q1 2016

OVER Q1 2015 (%)

Q2 2016 OVER

Q2 2015 (%)

Q3 2016 OVER

Q3 2015 (%)

Q4 2016E OVER

Q4 2015

Q1 2017E OVER

Q1 2016

2016 OVER

2015 (%)

2017E OVER

2016

S&P MidCap 400 -7.39 10.45 17.84 54.76 34.11 16.33 31.92

S&P 400 Consumer Discretionary 24.23 13.68 16.43 13.17 5.37 16.22 11.56

S&P 400 Consumer Staples -3.46 -4.13 -3.77 4.23 7.85 -1.84 19.28

S&P 400 Energy -451.52 45.63 68.94 66.05 77.53 46.60 91.13

S&P 400 Financials 6.02 0.73 44.52 43.21 45.07 23.34 23.65

S&P 400 Health Care 24.73 8.62 -14.98 -11.62 34.93 -0.04 47.00

S&P 400 Industrials 4.65 2.50 4.97 -8.27 7.09 0.95 12.67

S&P 400 Information Technology -3.15 22.07 44.10 33.38 103.47 25.83 68.48

S&P 400 Materials -37.42 23.45 37.16 38.99 84.62 12.24 42.56

S&P 400 Telecommunication Services -95.61 4.13 -82.86 -400.00 -501.56 -84.76 -396.87

S&P 400 Utilities 5.31 0.25 5.44 55.19 6.38 15.08 3.00

S&P 400 Real Estate - - - - - - 57.77

INDEX Q1 2016

OVER Q1 2015 (%)

Q2 2016 OVER

Q2 2015 (%)

Q3 2016 OVER

Q3 2015 (%)

Q4 2016E OVER

Q4 2015

Q1 2017E OVER

Q1 2016

2016 OVER

2015 (%)

2017E OVER

2016

S&P SmallCap 600 8.72 21.83 55.56 37.74 44.40 30.21 51.41

S&P 600 Consumer Discretionary 17.58 13.33 -4.69 48.74 -17.01 17.47 11.52

S&P 600 Consumer Staples 20.86 8.70 10.61 -34.26 -25.19 -1.26 11.20

S&P 600 Energy 28.88 43.87 78.34 77.89 84.21 61.30 91.76

S&P 600 Financials 23.24 19.08 31.68 24.71 37.11 24.70 19.83

S&P 600 Health Care -26.65 -29.82 -89.44 -116.95 31.70 -65.95 322.28

S&P 600 Industrials -3.16 10.13 15.15 -23.24 14.82 0.41 22.92

S&P 600 Information Technology -5.99 3.99 12.50 27.97 143.82 11.51 87.08

S&P 600 Materials 13.03 100.00 68.66 421.43 52.96 85.16 27.03

S&P 600 Telecommunication Services 0.00 0.00 -33.33 0.00 -50.00 -12.50 -14.29

S&P 600 Utilities -6.82 10.90 103.56 -20.45 4.35 1.54 9.28

S&P 600 Real Estate - - - - - - 95.56




Exhibit 8: Breadth of Change (Issues With Monthly Price Changes as Described by Type)

S&P 500

TYPE APRIL 2017 AVERAGE % CHANGE YTD AVERAGE % CHANGE

Up 280 3.99 345 12.40

Down 225 -3.74 159 -8.34

Up >= 10% 12 13.90 176 19.26

Down <= -10% 12 -13.84 49 -17.09

Up >= 25% 0 0.00 36 32.59

Down <= -25% 0 0.00 4 -26.60

Up >= 50% 0 0.00 1 60.58

Down <= -50% 0 0.00 0 0.00

S&P MIDCAP 400


Up 235 4.35 238 12.96

Down 162 -4.91 161 -10.03

Up >= 10% 20 14.63 120 20.53

Down <= -10% 22 -15.68 58 -19.16

Up >= 25% 1 38.91 30 36.61

Down <= -25% 2 -29.54 13 -32.36

Up >= 50% 0 0.00 5 59.49

Down <= -50% 0 0.00 0 0.00

S&P SMALLCAP 600


Up 345 5.86 280 16.02

Down 251 -6.60 319 -13.97

Up >= 10% 65 15.49 159 24.53

Down <= -10% 58 -17.27 165 -21.68

Up >= 25% 3 46.93 53 41.78

Down <= -25% 6 -35.07 46 -37.08

Up >= 50% 1 80.00 11 66.39

Down <= -50% 0 0.00 7 -58.76

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE


Up 16 3.79 22 10.10

Down 14 -2.06 8 -6.51

Up >= 10% 1 10.24 9 15.02

Down <= -10% 0 0.00 1 -13.99

Up >= 25% 0 0.00 0 0.00




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market attributes: u.s. equities april 2017 · 2017-05-02 · market attributes u.s. equities april...

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