market opportunities for irish dairy 2025 · 2019-06-25 · market opportunities for irish dairy...
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Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture AIDAN COTTER
CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA
28 JANUARY 2009
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Market Opportunities for Irish Dairy 2025 National Dairy Conference 2014
Aidan Cotter Chief Executive Wednesday, 19th November, 2014
Red Cow Moran Hotel, Dublin
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Ireland IrelandIreland
The Emerald Isle
Hort & Cereals €225 m
Seafood €520 m
Prepared Foods €967 m
Beverages€1,250 m
Dairy €3,642 m
Meat & Livestock €3,305 m
37%
33%
Dairy exports to grow by €1.8 billion over the next five years (based on 2013 prices & product mix)
And account for over 45% of total food & drink exports (based on 2013 non-dairy volumes and prices)
Hort & Cereals€€225 m 225 m
Seafood€520 m
Prepared FoodsPrepared Foods€967 m
BeveragesBeverages€1,250 m 1,250 m
Dairy€3,642 m
Meat & Livestock€3,305 m
37%
33%
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Dairy Exports are more internationally oriented….. Distribution by region 2013 (%) Distribution by region 2013 (%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
United Kingdom Other EU Int. Markets
42
32 26
32 29
39
Food & Drink Dairy
Irish dairy products were exported to more than 140 countries in 2013
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
The industry has been reaching out beyond Europe Distribution of Dairy Exports 2000 to 2013 (%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
UK Continental EU International Markets
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Dairy Exports to International Markets Diversified
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Other
US
ME
Africa
Asia
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Irish Dairy Exports to China growing rapidly
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Other Whey Butter & cheese Milk Powders IMF
€m
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Bill
ions
3 billion
7.3 billion 6 billion
5 billion 4 billion
9 billion
World Population 1950 - 2050
7.3 billion7.3 billion7.3 billion7.3 billion7.3 billion7.3 billion54% in cities
66% in cities
30% in cities Source: UN World Population Prospects; the 2012 revision
What’s Driving Global Demand for Food……
8.1 billion 7.3 billion7.3 billion
8.1 billion8.1 billion8.1 billion8.1 billion8.1 billion58% in cities
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 0%0%0%0% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
China
India
Other Asia
20%20%20%20% Japan
United States
40%40%40%40%
30%30%EU
Others
Shares of Global Middle Class Consumption, 2000-2050
Source: OECD Working Paper
100%100%100%100%100%
90%
80%80%80%80%80%
90%90%90%90%90% “3 billion consumers will join the middle classes
from 2010 to 2030”
Chinachanging lifestyles,
shifting dietary habits”
India and China Make Waves in the Global Middle Class
Shares of Global Middle Class Consumption, 20002025
Shares of Global Middle Class Consumption, 2000
“3 billion consumers “3 billion consumers 2015
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Source: UN World Population Statistics, 2012
More than three of every four people live in Asia or Africa %
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Asia Africa Europe Latin America
North America
Oceania
59
18
9 9 5 1
2010 2015 2025
Africa +302m
Asia +364m
Latin America +61m North America +29m
From 2015 to 2025 population will grow by 760m
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
0
10
20
30
World Asia Europe North America
Africa
15 15
27 25
6
2010 2015 2025
Source: UN Population Division 2012
Global population continues to grow older % of population aged over 60
…in Europe, by 2025 more than 200 million people will be over 60 …
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Ending the War on Fat
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
“By 2025, two-thirds of the world’s population could be living under water stress conditions”.
UN
Agriculture uses 70% of the world’s freshwater
“By 2025, two
Food for Fuel: 40% of US corn used for ethanol”
Climate Change
“The most frequent and
significant factor causing volatility is unpredictable
weather conditions”. FAO/OECD Agricultural Outlook, 2011-2020
Supply Challenges
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Source: OECD & FAO Secretariats
Emerging markets driving global demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
Beef Pigmeat Poultry Sheepmeat Butter Cheese WMP SMP Fish
World Developing OECD
Global demand for livestock & fish products (% Ch 2023 vs. 2011-2013 average)
Beef Pigmeat Poultry Sheepmeat Fish
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
North America
1.4%
Latin America And Caribbean
1.9%
Africa 3.3%
Saudi Arabia
3.6%
Europe
0.4% Japan 0.4%
China 3%
India 3.7% SE Asia
2.7% Oceania
1.2%
Russia
0.7%
Global Consumption of Dairy Products to 2023 Annual consumption to grow by 2.4%
Annual Increase 2013-2023
Source: OECD FAO
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Latin America And Caribbean
21.1%
Africa 38.5%
Saudi Arabia
41.9%
China 33%
India 43.9% SE Asia
30% 30%
ChinaNorth America
15% Europe
4.1% Japan 3.9%
Oceania
12.7%
Russia
7.4%
Global Consumption of Dairy Products to 2023 Total consumption to grow by 27%
Total Increase 2013-2023
Source: OECD FAO
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
0 50 100 150 200
Canada Mexico
Australia Ukraine
Argentina Turkey
New Zealand Brazil
Russia Pakistan
China US
India Europe
2023 2011 - 13
M tns
Global Milk Production to 2023
Source: OECD FAO
Annual growth down from
2.2% to 1.9%
78% of growth in developing
countries
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Butter +0.7% NZ the primary source
47% market share
WMP +1.7%pa NZ share to rise to 57%
SMP +2.5% pa US largest source at 34% by 2023
World trade in dairy products to 2023 EU, US, NZ and Australia account for almost 80% of exports
Cheese +2.4% pa EU to account for
39% by 2023
Annual, global import growth and export market share
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
The Importance of China
World’s largest dairy importer
Declining self-sufficiency
Per capita consumption less than 1/3rd world average
Rising import demand
Butter +24%, Cheese +228%, SMP + 86%, WMP + 44% Growth to 2023
World’s largest dairy importerdairy importer
Declining self-self-self sufficiencysufficiency
Per capita consumption less than 1/3rdrd world average
Rising import demand
Butter +24%, Cheese +228%, SMP + 86%, WMP + 44%Growth to 2023
0
50
100
150
200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Thou
sand
s MT Liquid
Milk Imports
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Source: OECD FAO
World Dairy Prices to 2023
Butter
Cheese
SMP WMP
2014
$/ton
ne
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Customer priorities…..sourcing from Ireland
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Customer priorities…..Europe
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Customer priorities…..Saudi Arabia
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Yili
Feihe
Wandashan
Customer priorities…..China
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Customer priorities…..sourcing from Ireland
long-term agreements
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Energy Emissions Water
Biodiversity Socio-economic data
Traceability Welfare
Environment Animal Health
Food Safety
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
South Korea South Korea Indonesia
Growing the success of Irish food & horticultureGrowing the success of Irish food & horticultureGrowing the success of Irish food & horticultureGrowing the success of Irish food & horticultureGrowing the success of Irish food & horticultureGrowing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Vietnam Senegal
Consumer insights through ethnography in dairy markets
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
300+ hours in-field
3 Cities Shanghai
Beijing Chengdu
48 home visits
36 store visits
14 brand clinics
Consumer insights through ethnography in dairy markets
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Components of S & P 500 Market Value
Intangible Assets Tangible Assets
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1975 1985 1995 2005 2010
83 68
32 20 20
17 32
68 80 80
Source: Ocean Tomo
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE
BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 2009
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Market Opportunities for Irish Dairy 2025 National Dairy Conference 2014
Aidan Cotter Chief Executive Wednesday, 19th November, 2014
Red Cow Moran Hotel, Dublin