market pulse july 2015 1. survey methodology monthly online survey of 300+ ca realtors® respondents...

1

MARKET PULSEJuly 2015

2

Survey Methodology

•Monthly online survey of 300+ CA REALTORS®

• Respondents are asked about their last closed transaction and business activity in their market area for the previous month and the last year.

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LAST TRANSACTION

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Nearly 2/3 of Transactions Closed at the Asking Price or below

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-150%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

34%

0.43

0.24

Over Below At

SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

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Premium Paid Over Asking Price Flat

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-150.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

7.1%

11.0%11.0%

Average


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Discount on Asking Price Increases

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Av-er-age

-0.0575

-0.0563

-0.0578

-0.062952

-0.1171

-0.1261

-0.11

-0.11

-0.106

-0.11

-0.07

-0.11

-0.096

-13.0%

-11.0%

-9.0%

-7.0%

-5.0%

-3.0%

-1.0%


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67% of Properties Receiving Multiple Offers

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?


45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

66%65%

67%


8

Number of Offers Received Remained Flat

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-150.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2.72.93.0

Average

Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

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Proportion of Properties with Listing Price Reductions increased significantly from prior month

Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug-

14

Sep-

14

Oct-1

4

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr-1

5

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

510%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

25%

21%

28%


10

A marginal increase of Previous Renters

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?


25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

32%

37%38%


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Fewer Sellers Becoming Renters

Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?


12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

26%

15%15%


12

Share of First-time Buyers Fluctuating Less in Recent Months

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr-1

4

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug-

14

Sep-

14

Oct-1

4

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr-1

5

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

520%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

32%

30%

32%

% First-time Buyers Long Run Average


13

Majority Purchases are Primary Residences

Q: What was the intended use of the property?

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr-1

4

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug-

14

Sep-

14

Oct-1

4

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr-1

5

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

50%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

78% 75%78%

15% 16%16%

Primary residence InvestmentVacation home Other


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International Buyers Fluctuate

Q: Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

6.1%7.9% 8.0%

% International Buyers Long Run Average


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MARKET CONDITIONS

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Floor Calls from Potential Clients Declining

Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was …

Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-150%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%Down Flat Up


17

Listing Appointments/Presentations to Clients Slowing Down

Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in your market area this month was …

Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-150%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%Down Flat Up


18

Open House Traffic Declining

Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was …


10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Down Flat Up


19

Auctions Steady

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was …

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%Down Flat Up


20

All Cash Purchases Flattening Out

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was …

Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-150%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

34%

46%

19%

Down Flat Up


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1 In 4 REALTORS® Are Concerned About Inventory

Lack

of I

nven

tory

Risin

g Rat

es

Prices

Decre

ase

in A

fforda

bilit

y

Anot

her B

ubbl

e

Econ

omic R

ecov

ery

Polic

ies & R

egul

atio

ns

Uncer

tain

ty0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%26%

16%12%

4% 4% 4% 3%1%

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

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Majority of REALTORS® Expect Better/Similar Market Conditions Over the Next Year

Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?


10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

17%

47%

36%

Worsen Same Improve


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Why REALTORS® Expect Market Conditions to Worsen

Rise in interest rates

Poor economy

Uncertainty in market

Decrease in home affordability

Q: Why do you expect real estate market conditions to worsen over the next year?SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

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What are REALTORS® Saying?

Market activity is stagnant.

No longer a sellers market

Escrows are closing late

Buyer and seller expectations are not in sync

Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to share with us--such as information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, or other topics?

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Top 10 Counties

Q: In which county do you live?SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

June 2015 July 2015

1 Los Angeles Los Angeles

2 San Diego Orange County

3 Riverside Sacramento

4 Orange Santa Clara

5 Alameda San Diego

6 Santa Clara Riverside

7 Sacramento Contra Costa

8 San Luis Obispo Placer

9 Marin Alameda

10 Sonoma San Mateo

market pulse july 2015 1. survey methodology monthly online survey of 300+ ca realtors® respondents...

Documents

market pulse surveysource

market pulse market

market area

closed transaction

asking price

ca realtors respondents

price flatq

listing price reductions