market report 2015-retail q4
TRANSCRIPT
Wisinski ofWest Michigan
Office • Industrial • Retail • Multi-Family
100 Grandville Ave SW Suite 100Grand Rapids, MI 49503616. 776. 0100 www.naiwwm.com
*Also serving the Kalamazoo & Southwest Michigan areas from our new Kalamazoo office*
Retail Market ReportWest Michigan Q4 - Year End 2015
Looking Ahead at the Retail Market in Sixteen. For Retailers, Brands and Consumers.
* The information contained herein has been given to us by sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt its accuracy, however, we do not make any guarantees. All information should be verified before relying thereon.
* Source: NAIWisinskiofWestMI, CoStar Property®, & U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
GRAND RAPIDS, MI
The Market
2015 was an EXCITING year for retail real estate in West Michigan. The market continues to absorb vacancy and significant new projects have come on line. The most notable and largest project is the 75 store Tanger Outlet center in Byron Center. This was a long awaited dream for the throngs of outlet mall shoppers. Look for continued development around Tanger especially some food related brands. In Holland, de-malling began on the now named Shops at West Shore along with outlot construction. Kalamazoo saw a major new development off Stadium Dr at US 131 with the opening of Costco and the regions first Field & Stream scheduled to open in the first quarter of 2016.
Here are a few others who chose to locate in Grand Rapids in 2015: Trader Joes, Fresh Market, West Elm, Wolfgang Puck, Slows BBQ, Orvis, Jersey Mike’s Subs, Bravo, Pieology, Menchies Yogurt and more. As we look forward to 2016 the pace for retail doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. There is significant new construction happening at Knapp & East Beltline with several new names to be announced soon. The long awaited arrival of Chick-fil-A is projected to occur this year and our area’s first Freddy’s Frozen Custard & Steakburgers is under construction on Plainfield NE. If you’re already a retailer in Grand Rapids, please contact our NAI Retail Team to learn how we can assist you with mapping out and securing your new or next location. If you’re wondering if your company should open a store in West Michigan…the time is now! Anyone on our Retail Team would be happy to discuss the West Michigan marketplace in further detail. Please contact us. Have a great 2016!
-Rod Alderink, Principal | NAI Member
“Our West Michigan
economy continues to
receive accolades as one of
the fastest growing in the
country ranked in similar
company with Houston and
Denver. Our unemployment
continues to be the lowest
in the state and below the
national average. Grand
Rapids is no longer seen
as an in-fill location after
retailers have ventured
to Chicago and Detroit.
Wisconsin based Kessler
Jewlery chose Grand
Rapids for its first out-state
location.”
Construction Trends Across the US
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1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
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1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
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1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
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A New High and Soaring
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1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
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Well Below Average
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total, All Structure Types Single Family Houses
Source: Census Housing Starts. -to-date, Oct 2015
2014 2015*
West MichiganRetail Submarket Statistics
Retail Statistical Changes Year-over-Year and Quarter-over-Quarter
CONSTRUCTION
CONSTRUCTION
ASKING RATES
ASKING RATES
VACANCY RATE
VACANCY RATE
NET ABSORPTION
NET ABSORPTION
3Q15 vs. 4Q15
4Q14 vs. 4Q15
2015 Q4 Retail Snapshot
Submarket Total RBA VacantAvailable SF
Vacancy Rate
Total AverageNNN Rate ($/SF/Yr)
Total Net Absorption (SF)
Lakeshore
Community 1,465,132 90,031 6.1% $8.16 3,512
Neighborhood 1,465,132 90,031 6.1% $7.96 3,512Strip 1,022,191 97,080 9.5% $9.64 -554Total 3,952,454 277,142 7.0% $8.59 6,470NortheastCommunity 445,573 160,256 3.6% $4.89 -Neighborhood 1,094,518 118,000 10.8% $10.57 3,681Strip 680,347 66,508 9.8% $9.96 -2,950Total 2,220,438 344,764 15.5% $8.47 731NorthwestCommunity 863,186 32,718 3.8% $12.00 6,975Neighborhood 1,094,518 118,000 10.8% $10.57 3,681Strip 531,191 64,690 12.2% $9.94 15,420Total 2,488,895 215,408 8.7% $10.84 26,076SoutheastCommunity 744,146 15,815 2.1% $20.81 860Neighborhood 2,468,589 436,857 17.7% $10.26 8,800Strip 1,717,517 147,520 8.6% $9.98 13,503Total 4,930,252 600,192 12.2% $13.69 23,163SouthwestCommunity 1,651,066 230,596 14.0% $10.60 2,800Neighborhood 966,819 136,904 14.2% $7.96 2,194Strip 948,325 68,189 7.2% $9.53 3,150Total 3,566,210 435,689 12.2% $9.36 8,144Overall Total 17,158,249 1,873,195 10.9% $10.19 64,584
Retail Total Market Report
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Vacancy Rate Across All Submarkets
Vacancy Rates- Neighborhood Vacancy Rates- Community Vacancy Rates- Strip
$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00$8.00
$10.00$12.00
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Triple Net Rental Rate
Rental Rates- Neighborhod Rental Rates- Community Rental Rates- Strip
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
2011 2012 20132 0142 015
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
2011 2012 20132 014 2015
RBA Delivered Neighborhood RBA Delivered Community RBA Delivered Strip
2
2 2
$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00$8.00
$10.00$12.00
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Triple Net Rental Rate
Rental Rates- Neighborhod Rental Rates- Community Rental Rates- Strip
$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00$8.00
$10.00$12.00
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Triple Net Rental Rate
Rental Rates- Neighborhod Rental Rates- Community Rental Rates- Strip
$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00$8.00
$10.00$12.00
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Triple Net Rental Rate
Rental Rates- Neighborhod Rental Rates- Community Rental Rates- Strip
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Methodology | Definitions | Submarket Map
Community CenterA shopping center development that has a total square footage between 10,000 - 350,000 SF. Generally will have 2-3 large anchored tenants, but not department store anchors. Community Center typically offers a wider range of apparel and other soft goofs than the Neighborhood Center. Among the more common anchors are supermarkets and super drugstores.
Strip CenterA strip center is an attached row of stores or service outlets managed as a coherent retail entity, with on-site parking usually located in front of the stores. Open canopies may connect the storefronts, but a strip center does not have enclosed walkways linking the stores.
Neighborhood CenterProvides for the sale of convenience goods (food, drugs, etc) and personal services (laundry, dry cleaning, etc.)
Absorption (Net)The change in occupied space in a given time period.
Available Square FootageNet rentable area considered available for lease; excludes sublease space.
Average Asking Rental RateRental rate as quoted from each building’s owner/management company. For retail, a triple net rate is requested.
RBAThe total square footage of a building that can be occupied by, or assigned to a tenant for the purpose of determining a tenant’s rental obligation.
DeliveriesBuildings that have their certificate of occupancy and are allowed to be moved into by the tenant/purchaser.
Vacancy RateAll physically unoccupied lease space, either direct or sublease.
SF/PSFSquare foot/per square foot, used as a unit of measurement.
Southwest
Northeast
Southeast
Northwest
Lakeshore
Methodology: The retail market report includes community, neighborhood, and strip retail buildings within each of the defined submarkets. For definition of product type, please see below.
Through our affiliation with NAI Global, we can also assist you with your needs throughout the US & globally right here from West Michigan.
Doug Taatjes, CCIM, SIOR616 292 [email protected]
Hillary Taatjes-Woznick616 242 [email protected]
Tim Platt616 575 [email protected]
Gary Steere616 575 [email protected]
Russ Bono616 242 [email protected]
Jeremy Veenstra616 242 [email protected]
Marc Tourangeau269 207 [email protected]
Stanley Wisinski III, SIOR, CCIM616 575 [email protected]
Bill Tyson616 242 [email protected]
Meet Our Team
Retail SpecialistsRod Alderink616 242 [email protected]
Dane Davis269 459 [email protected]
Dick Jasinski616 575 [email protected]
Scott Nurski616 242 [email protected]
In the spring of 2011, two successful and reputable companies, The Wisinski Group and NAI West Michigan merged. The merger represents collaboration, rich traditions, innovative technologies, unique cultures and diversity of skills and specialties which ultimately benefit our clients. We’re going back to our fundamentals, strengthening our core, and becoming stronger in the services we provide our clients. Our focus is simple, building client relationships for life by offering market appropriate advice and then executing. Our success is a direct result of its unwavering commitment to providing the best possible service to each and every client. Our Brokers, with their 562 plus years of combined experience (20.1 years average), possess the knowledge and expertise to manage the most complex transactions in industrial, office, retail, and multifamily specialities throughout West Michigan.
NAI Wisinski of West MichiganAt a Glance
Achieve More.Local Knowledge. Global Reach.
100 Grandville Ave SW Suite 100Grand Rapids, MI 49503616. 776. 0100 www.naiwwm.com
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Wisinski ofWest Michigan
Office • Industrial • Retail • Multi-Family