q4 2016 market chartbook

rwbaird.com

Q1 2018 Market ChartBook

March 31, 2018

Baird Private Wealth Management

Wealth Management | Capital Markets – Investment Banking | Private Equity | Asset Management

Charlotte Chicago Frankfurt London Milwaukee Shanghai

Table of Contents

03 19 26 35

Economy & Market Domestic Equity International Equity Fixed Income

Market Highlights

The Markets at a Glance

Returns by Asset Class

S&P 500 Index

Economic Growth

Inflation Watch

Jobs Market

Housing Market

Consumer Health

Corporate Profitability

Market Volatility

Commodity Markets

Energy Markets

Mutual Fund and ETF Flows

Fund Flow Heat Map

U.S Equity Snapshot

Asset Class Performance

U.S. Sector Performance

Investment Style Leadership

Historical Market Valuations

Historical Sector Valuations

Mutual Fund Performance

Global Market Performance

Intl. Equity Performance

Country Performance

Sector Performance


Global Market Valuations

Country Valuations Ranges

Bond Market Snapshot

Maturity/Credit Performance

Yield and Volatility

U.S. Treasury Bonds

Corporate Bond Yields

Bonds Spreads

Mutual Fund Performance

Economy and Markets


Robert W. Baird & Co. Member SIPC. 4

Q1 2018 Market Highlights

Economy and Market

At a Glance: The equity market broke its quarterly

win streak in Q1 with an impressive final tally of eight

positive consecutive quarters. Broad equity markets

fell modestly in Q1 as investors became more

concerned with the pace of rising interest rates, the

threat of tariff wars and weakness in the Technology

sector stemming from increased regulatory rhetoric.

Final revisions of Q4 GDP showed economic growth

clocked in at 2.9% YoY and 2.3% for the full year.

2018 economic growth and corporate earnings should

accelerate as companies and consumers benefit from

lower taxes and a recently passed $1.3 trillion

spending bill.

Economy: Headline CPI rose 2.2% YoY in February,

while Core CPI, which excludes food and energy,

came in at 1.8% YoY. The market easily digested this

report as it was largely consistent with recent

releases and the Fed’s backdrop. The US labor

market remains strong, adding an average of 242,000

jobs for the previous three months through February.

Recall the market was spooked by a 2.9% jump in

hourly earnings in January. Some of these gains were

reversed in February (0.1% increase in average

hourly earnings) leaving the 12-month average at a

stable 2.6%. The unemployment rate remains at

4.1%, while the participation rate rose to 63%.

Fed Speak: The Fed left rates unchanged in January,

which marked Yellen’s last meeting as Fed Chair.

Jerome Powell assumed the Chairman role and

raised rates 25 bps to 1.50-1.75% at his first meeting

in March. This increase was largely expected, as are

two more in 2018, but the market was spooked by the

Fed’s 2019 outlook. They now expect to raise rates

three times in 2019 vs. two prior as the economy has

strengthened. That said, Powell is expected to

maintain the slow and steady approach to

normalization.

Fixed Income

At a Glance: The broad US bond market, measured

by the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Index,

returned -1.5% in Q1, as yields across the Treasury

curve rose to multi-year highs. The quarter ended

with a flatter yield curve with the 2s/10s spread

tightening to 47bps. The catalysts for the curve

change included nearly $530B in Treasury issuance,

repatriation of short-term debt, concerns regarding

trade policy, and tightening monetary policy. Global

fixed income markets experienced strong

performance in Q1 with strength driven by Japan,

peripheral Europe and emerging markets. In Japan,

expectations for prolonged yield curve control

resurfaced with the reappointment of BOJ Governor

Kuroda. Sovereign debt in peripheral Europe showed

resilience following the Italian elections in March. The

supportive macroeconomic backdrop of synchronized

global growth, higher commodity prices and muted

inflation helped emerging market debt deliver strong

performance.

Taxable Bonds: US fixed income markets took it on

the chin in Q1 with IG corporate debt taking the brunt

of the pain, down 2.3% in Q1. Short dated T-Bills

(0.3%) and Leveraged Loans (0.0%) led the asset

class this past quarter driven by their inherent shorter

duration and floating rate component. Performance by

credit quality was a bit mixed as A-rated issues

lagged relative to AA and BBB-rated debt.

Municipal Bonds: Municipal bonds outperformed

their taxable peers delivering -1.1% this past quarter.

As expected, year-to-date issuance has dropped

relative to 2017, enhancing the positive technical

environment. The increase in rates spilled over to the

muni market in Q1 but investors remained content

with underlying credit risk as high yield municipals

were the best performing sector in Q1 returning 0.6%.

Domestic Equity

At a Glance: For the first time in three years, the

S&P 500 posted a negative return of -0.8% for the

quarter. The market got off to a strong start in

January, but volatility became the theme for the rest

of the period. Market selloffs were sparked by

increased expectations of tightening by the Fed, fears

of an imminent trade war particularly between the US

and China, and company-specific issues with some of

the “FANG” stocks sent markets lower.

Market Cap and Style: Among market cap

segments, small-cap equities outperformed mid- and

large-cap stocks while growth continued to gain

ground relative to value during the quarter.

Sector: Even with the recent selloff in some of the

most well-known growth names, the only two sectors

that posted a positive return during the quarter were

Information Technology (+3.5%) and Consumer

Discretion (+3.1%). Contrasting were the income-

oriented sectors of Telecom (-7.5%) and Consumer

Staples (-7.1%), while the cyclical sectors also saw

drops: Energy (-5.9%) and Materials (-5.5%).

International Equity

At a Glance: International equities were mixed in Q1,

with emerging markets up 1.4% while developed

markets fell 1.5%. Economic data in Europe

continued to indicate expansion though concerns

flared up that the economy may have already peaked.

Uncertainty in leadership, monetary policy, and

potential tariffs put pressure on the European markets

with Germany (-3.6%), the UK (-3.9%), and Spain (-

1.6%) seeing losses for the quarter. Select emerging

markets saw positive returns, with China up 1.8%,

Russia up 9.4%, and Brazil returning 12.6% following

an increased likelihood for a market-friendly election

later this year. On the flipside, India suffered a 7%

drop in the quarter.


Markets at a Glance

As of March 31, 2018

Source: Morningstar Direct; Russell, MSCI, Barclays, Citigroup, and Dow Jones benchmarks. Performance greater than one year is annualized. Performance is represented by the benchmark listed in the “representative benchmark” column. See important disclosures and definitions included with this publication.

Asset Class Last Qtr YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 2017 2016 2015 Benchmark

U.S. Stocks

Large Cap Value (2.8) (2.8) 6.9 7.9 10.8 7.8 13.7 17.3 (3.8) Russell 1000® Value

Large Cap Grow th 1.4 1.4 21.3 12.9 15.5 11.3 30.2 7.1 5.7 Russell 1000® Growth

Mid Cap (0.5) (0.5) 12.2 8.0 12.1 10.2 18.5 13.8 (2.4) Russell Midcap®

Small Cap (0.1) (0.1) 11.8 8.4 11.5 9.8 14.6 21.3 (4.4) Russell 2000®

International Stocks

Developed Markets (1.5) (1.5) 14.8 5.6 6.5 2.7 25.0 1.0 (0.8) MSCI EAFE (Net)

Bonds

Short-Term Taxable (0.2) (0.2) 0.2 0.7 0.8 1.6 0.8 1.3 0.7 BBgBarc 1-3 Yr Govt/Credit

Intermediate-Term Taxable (1.0) (1.0) 0.4 0.9 1.2 2.9 2.1 2.1 1.1 BBgBarc Intermed. Govt/Credit

Short-Term Municipal 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.8 BBgBarc 1-3 Yr Municipal

Intermediate-Term Municipal (1.2) (1.2) 1.3 1.6 2.1 4.0 4.5 (0.5) 3.3 BBgBarc 7 Yr Municipal

Cash

Cash/Cash Equivalents 0.4 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 Citi 3 Month T-bills

Satellite

High Yield (0.9) (0.9) 3.7 5.2 5.0 8.1 7.5 17.5 (4.6) BofA/ML High Yield Master II

Real Estate (5.9) (5.9) 0.1 2.9 6.3 6.4 9.8 7.6 2.1 DJ US REIT

Commodities (0.4) (0.4) 3.7 (3.2) (8.3) (7.7) 1.7 11.8 (24.7) Bloomberg Commodity

Emerging Markets 1.4 1.4 24.9 8.8 5.0 3.0 37.3 11.2 (14.9) MSCI Emerging Mkts (Net)

Trailing Returns (%) Annual Returns (%)


0%0%

-1%

4%3%

-1% -1%-2%

-3%

-5%-6%

-6%

-7%-7%

1%0%

-1%

-4%-4% -4%

-6%

-7%

12%

9%

6%

2%

1%

0%

-4%

-7%

1%

-1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1%

-2%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Returns by Asset Class


Source: Morningstar Direct. Asset classes are represented by the following benchmarks: Large Cap (S&P 500), Mid Cap (Russell Mid Cap), Small Cap (Russell 2000), Cons. Discretionary (S&P 500 Sectors/Consumer Discretionary), Cons. Staples (S&P 500 Sectors/Consumer Staples), Energy (S&P 500 Sectors/Energy), Financials (S&P 500 Sectors/Financials), Health Care (S&P 500 Sectors/Health Care), Industrials (S&P 500 Sectors/Industrials), Info. Technology (S&P 500 Sectors/Info. Technology), Materials (S&P 500 Sectors/Materials), Telecom. (S&P 500 Sectors/Telecommunications), Utilities (S&P 500 Sectors/Utilities), Real Estate (S&P 500 Sectors/Real Estate), Australia ((MSCI Australia), Canada (MSCI Canada), France (MSCI France), Germany (MSCI Germany), Japan ((MSCI Japan), Switzerland ((MSCI Switzerland), United Kingdom (MSCI United Kingdom), United States (S&P 500), Brazil (MSCI Brazil), China (MSCI China), India (MSCI India), Korea (MSCI Korea), Mexico (MSCI Mexico), Russia (MSCI Russia), South Africa (MSCI South Africa), Taiwan (MSCI Taiwan), Agency (BBgBarc US Agency), Broad Market (BBgBarc US Agg. Bond), Corporate (BBgBarc US Corporate IG), High Yield (BBgBarc US Corporate HY), Municipal (BBgBarc Municipal), TIPS (BBgBarc US Treasury US TIPS), Treasury (BBgBarc US Treasury)

Year-to-Date Performance of Various Asset Classes

Market Cap

U.S. Sectors

International Markets

Emerging Markets

Fixed Income


2,500

2,550

2,600

2,650

2,700

2,750

2,800

2,850

2,900

Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18

Ad

just

ed

Clo

sin

g L

eve

lS&P 500 Index


Source: Standard and Poor’s. The S&P 500 Index, computed by the Standard & Poor's Corporation, is a well known gauge of stock market movements determined by the weighted capitalization of the 500 leading U.S. common stocks. Indices are unmanaged and it is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Year-to-Date Performance of the S&P 500 Index

Q1: -0.8%


Economic Growth

As of December 31, 2017

Source: US Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP Growth)

Gross Domestic

Product (GDP)

GDP is a basic measure of

U.S. economic output.

Alternatively, it can be

thought of as the final value

of all goods and services

produced within the U.S.

Positive GDP growth signals

an expanding economy.

GDP is comprised of four

major categories: personal

consumption, private

investment, government

spending and net exports.

US GDP Growth

Contribution to U.S. GDP Growth

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-14 Mar-16

GD

P G

row

th (%

)

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8


Co

ntr

ibuti

on

to

GD

P G

row

th (%

)

Personal Consumption Private Investment

Govt. Spending Next Exports


Inflation Watch

As of February 28, 2018

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Baird Analysis. CPI figures lag one month.

Consumer Price Index

(CPI)

A common measure of

inflation, Headline CPI tracks

a broad basket of goods and

services relatable to most

consumers. Core CPI

excludes Food and Energy

due to the volatile nature of

those categories and the

distortive effect it can have

on the broader inflation

measure.

Historic CPI Level

-2

0

2

4

6


Ye

ar-

Ove

r-Y

ear C

hang

e in

CP

I Headline CPI

Core CPI

Components Weight (%) 12-mo Change (%) Components Weight (%) 12-mo Change (%)

Headline CPI 100 2.2 Core CPI 79 1.8

Housing 42 2.8 Food 13 1.4

Transportation 17 4.1 Energy 8 7.7

Food & Beverage 14 1.4

Medical Care 9 1.8

Education/Communication 7 (1.8)

Recreation 6 0.6

Apparel/Clothing 2 0.6

Other 3 2.4

Headline CPI Core CPI: Headline less Food and Energy


4.1

8.2

0

3

6

9

12

15

18


Un

em

plo

ym

en

t R

ate

(%

)

U-3 Unemployment Rate

U-6 Underemployment Rate

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600


Ch

an

ge i

n P

ay

roll

(0

00s

)

63.0

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67


Part

icip

ati

on

Rate

(%

)

Jobs Market


Source: US Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data will lag one month and is subject to revision. Wage growth is calculated quarterly and will lag one quarter.

Jobs Gained/Lost Unemployment and Underemployment Rates

Labor Force Participation Wage Growth (y/o/y%)

2.8

0

1

2

3

4


Wag

e G

rro

wth

(%

)


$125,000

$175,000

$225,000

$275,000

$325,000

$375,000


Median Price (New Homes)

Median Price (Exist ing)

Housing Market


Source: Standard & Poor’s, US Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis.


(CPI)

A common measure of




consumers. Core CPI






measure.

S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index (20 City) Average Selling Price of New and Existing Homes

Housing Affordability Index Home Starts/Sales

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240


Ind

ex

Le

ve

l

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220


Ind

ex

Le

ve

l

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500


Un

its (00

0s

)

New Housing Starts

Existing Home Sales


Consumer Health


Source: Thomas Reuters/University of Michigan, US Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis.


(CPI)

A common measure of




consumers. Core CPI






measure.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey Consumer Spending Growth (y/o/y%)

Personal Savings Rate Personal Income Per Capita

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

Ind

ex L

eve

l

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8


Co

ns

um

er

Sp

en

din

g G

row

th (

%)

$32,000

$34,000

$36,000

$38,000

$40,000


0

2

4

6

8

10

12


Pe

rso

na

l S

av

ing

s R

ate

(%

)



Source: BEA, Bloomberg, Standard & Poors, Baird analysis. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.


Earnings power ultimately

drives long-term changes to

stock prices. These two

charts display how profitable

US corporations are. The

top chart measures earnings

(top line growth) and

revenue (bottom line growth)

of the companies within the

S&P 500 Index. The bottom

chart displays corporate

profitability (after taxes) in

terms of total US GDP

growth.

S&P 500 Earnings Per Share (EPS)

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

Earnings Per Sh (right axis)

Revenues Per Sh (left axis)

Corporate Profits (% of GDP)

3%

6%

9%

12%

Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-17

Co

rpo

rate

Pro

fits

/G

DP



0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Q1

20

08

Q2

20

08

Q3

20

08

Q4

20

08

Q1

20

09

Q2 2

00

9

Q3 2

00

9

Q4

20

09

Q1

20

10

Q2

20

10

Q3

20

10

Q4

20

10

Q1 2

01

1

Q2 2

01

1

Q3

20

11

Q4

20

11

Q1

20

12

Q2

20

12

Q3

20

12

Q4 2

01

2

Q1 2

01

3

Q2

20

13

Q3

20

13

Q4

20

13

Q1

20

14

Q2

20

14

Q3 2

01

4

Q4 2

01

4

Q1

20

15

Q2

20

15

Q3

20

15

Q4

20

15

Q1

20

16

Q2 2

01

6

Q3 2

01

6

Q4

20

16

Q1

20

17

Q2

20

17

Q3

20

17

Q4

20

17

Q1 2

01

8

Pe

rc

en

t o

f T

ra

din

g D

ay

s

% of days up/down 2% or more

% of days up/down 1-2%

Market Volatility

Source: Standard & Poor’s; CBOE; Baird Analysis.

VIX (CBOE

Volatility Index)

The VIX measures the

implied volatility of S&P 500

future options. Simply put, it

measures the expected

volatility of the S&P 500

Index over the next 30 days.

The higher the index, the

higher the expected volatility.

It is also commonly referred

to as the “fear index.”

Historic VIX Level

Quarterly S&P 500 Trading Volatility


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


VIX

Le

ve

l


Commodity Markets


Source: U.S. Dept of Energy; London PM Gold Fix Index; Baird Analysis. “Broad Market” is represented by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, specific commodity types are reported segments of that index. See important disclosures and definitions included with this publication.

Year-to-Date Returns of Various Commodity Types (%)

Oil Prices Gold Prices

-0.4

8.8

1.80.9

-6.8 -6.2

-8.6

-12.0

1.0

-0.5

-5.2

8.77.9

3.2 3.1

-10.0

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

$1,324

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000


Lo

nd

on

PM

Go

ld ($

/oz)

$65

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160


WT

I O

il P

ric

e (

$/b

bl)


Energy Markets


Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; Bloomberg; Baird Analysis.

Total U.S. Oil Production (LH) and Rig Count Index (RH) Global Oil Supply and Demand (LH) and Supply Imbalance (RH)

$64.94

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160


WTI

Oil

Pri

ce ($/b

)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,500

4,500

5,500

6,500

7,500

8,500

9,500

10,500

Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

Ba

ke

r H

ug

he

s O

il &

Ga

s R

ig C

ou

nt

To

tal

U.S

. O

il P

rod

uc

tio

n (m

mb

b/d

)

Total Oil Production

Total Active Rig Count

Oil Prices (West Texas Intermediate)

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

75

80

85

90

95

100


Su

pp

ly / D

em

an

d Im

bala

nces (

MM

bb

/d)

Glo

bal

Oil

Su

pp

ly a

nd

Dem

an

d (

MM

bb

/d)

Global Over/Under Supply

Supply

Demand

Un

ders

up

ply

O

vers

up

ply

Natural Gas Prices (Henry Hub)

$2.73

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16


He

nry

Hu

b N

atu

ral G

as

Pri

ce ($

/mm

btu

)


Mutual Fund and ETF Flows

Source: Morningstar Direct; Baird Analysis. Asset classes with less than $25 billion invested were excluded from the analysis.

Annual Fund Flows

The examination of annual

mutual fund and ETF flows

shows the investment

pattern of the average

investor by broad asset

class. For example, in 2008

investors exited stocks when

the markets fell. In 2009,

large amounts of capital

went to fixed income, but

little flowed back to stocks.

Annual Mutual Fund and ETF Flows ($ millions)


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Money Market 613,001 (290,490) (431,604) (60,745) 23,827 40,622 24,080 52,648 84,147 110,049

Municipal Bond 12,758 75,969 16,043 (8,574) 54,251 (56,361) 32,748 21,822 33,533 34,663

Taxable Bond 61,001 333,826 246,664 190,178 329,181 34,920 110,193 29,820 199,509 393,331

Allocation (21,999) 6,453 18,527 19,307 29,553 61,961 51,267 (20,669) (51,899) (19,726)

US Equity 709 (33,563) (21,054) (45,395) (41,163) 175,444 127,309 (60,053) (8,997) 28,196

International Equity (41,542) 63,246 91,729 19,051 61,056 200,740 153,487 209,444 12,420 246,847

Alternative 19,820 28,434 24,006 23,172 17,902 49,512 20,076 20,516 (296) 7,097

Commodities 12,370 36,636 24,972 8,171 11,928 (32,890) (3,317) (1,526) 14,456 2,354

Calendar Year Net Flows ($M)

Top 10 In-Flows Trailing 1-Year Top 10 Out-Flows Trailing 1-Year

(as a % of assets) Growth Rate (as a % of assets) Growth Rate

Long Government 50.3% High Yield Bond -11.1%

Ultrashort Bond 35.4% Utilities -9.1%

Europe Stock 26.0% Consumer Cyclical -8.1%

Foreign Small/Mid Blend 20.8% Allocation--85%+ Equity -6.9%

Multisector Bond 17.8% Health -6.5%

Emerging Markets Bond 17.3% Mid-Cap Value -5.8%

World Bond 17.2% Allocation--70% to 85% Equity -4.7%

Nontraditional Bond 16.6% Equity Energy -4.6%

Foreign Large Blend 16.5% Large Grow th -3.3%

Financial 15.2% World Allocation -3.3%

Biggest % Gainers/Losers by Asset Class


Fund Flow Heat Map

Source: Morningstar Direct; Baird Analysis.


Asset Class 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

US Equity

Large Cap Grow th 0.1% -1.1% -1.8% -3.7% -2.9% -3.7% -1.3% -1.6% -0.9% -7.3% -3.9%

Large Cap Blend 2.7% 5.3% -0.6% 0.0% 0.8% 1.9% 6.3% 7.0% -0.2% 4.4% 4.1%

Large Cap Value 0.1% -2.3% -4.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 5.0% 3.0% -2.5% 1.6% -2.0%

Mid Cap Grow th 8.2% -5.2% -2.0% -1.0% -5.6% -3.8% 2.3% -4.0% -2.5% -9.1% -3.0%

Mid Cap Blend 4.1% -0.9% 5.3% 4.3% -1.0% 4.0% 16.5% 7.6% 6.8% 2.3% 2.4%

Mid Cap Value -2.7% -7.7% -1.4% 2.0% -0.2% -5.3% 5.7% 0.3% -4.3% -1.0% -4.3%

Small Cap Grow th -2.4% -2.4% 4.3% 0.3% -0.4% -3.7% 4.5% -7.2% -2.7% -6.2% -2.1%

Small Cap Blend -1.9% 2.6% 5.2% 2.7% -4.0% -3.5% 9.0% 1.5% 0.5% 5.9% 2.2%

Small Cap Value -2.2% 7.5% 4.4% 8.5% -2.8% -4.0% 5.0% -0.6% -0.1% 6.3% 0.4%


Internationl Grow th 7.5% -3.2% 1.8% -3.2% -6.0% -2.6% 6.2% 5.0% 6.6% -1.8% 2.7%

International Blend 22.7% 1.2% 8.8% 13.3% 6.7% 4.0% 15.6% 11.6% 19.9% 7.9% 16.6%

International Value 5.0% -8.2% -4.7% 1.7% 6.1% 7.9% 14.7% 10.7% -0.2% -1.5% 4.9%

Emerging Markets 19.4% 3.6% 32.5% 27.6% 7.0% 19.0% 9.2% 3.3% -0.6% 6.0% 14.3%

Global Equity 8.8% -4.7% -5.4% -3.3% -3.1% -5.2% 5.8% 3.0% -0.3% -4.8% 0.0%

Fixed Income

Short-Term Bond 1.4% -3.5% 70.4% 29.4% 9.4% 17.5% 11.8% 6.2% -0.7% 4.1% 8.9%

Intermediate-Term Bond 15.8% 2.6% 27.2% 9.5% 4.8% 12.6% -7.7% 4.7% 4.4% 10.5% 12.7%

High Yield Bond 3.3% 3.9% 28.9% 11.5% 10.5% 16.1% 0.4% -4.8% -2.6% 7.3% -5.5%

Bank Loan -9.9% -24.9% 44.3% 81.3% 33.5% 24.2% 93.6% -13.8% -16.5% 10.2% 11.7%

TIPS 6.5% 39.2% 56.3% 10.1% 10.6% 5.4% -22.6% -2.1% 3.7% 14.4% 15.6%

Short-Term Muni 4.4% 25.5% 106.1% 10.6% 4.4% 11.9% 4.6% 7.6% -1.8% 3.0% 4.0%

Intermediate-Term Muni 9.1% 8.8% 23.3% 7.1% 2.7% 14.5% -7.1% 13.4% 12.3% 10.4% 10.6%

High Yield Muni 1.3% -5.3% 27.9% 5.2% -1.3% 22.8% -15.0% 17.1% 5.2% 5.4% 11.4%

>10% 5% to 10% 3% to 5% 3% to 0% 0% to -3% -3% to -5% -5% to -10% <-10%

Mutual Fund and ETF Net Flow (YoY % Growth)

Domestic Equity



U.S. Stock Market Snapshot

Source: Morningstar Direct. Performance greater than one year is annualized. Performance is represented by the benchmark listed in the “representative benchmark” column. See important disclosures and definitions included with this publication.


Representative

Last Qtr YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Std. Dev. Max. Loss P/E EPS Gr. Div. Yld. Benchmark

2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0

Bellwethers

S&P 500 (0.8) (0.8) 14.0 10.8 13.3 9.5 9.5 (8.4) 17.4 11.8 2.0 S&P 500

DJIA (2.0) (2.0) 19.4 13.5 13.3 9.9 10.2 (9.0) 17.0 12.5 2.3 Dow Jones Industrial Avg.

Market Cap

Mega (1.9) (1.9) 13.1 11.7 13.0 8.9 10.3 (8.4) 17.5 11.3 2.1 Russell Top 50

Large (0.8) (0.8) 14.7 11.4 13.6 9.4 10.0 (8.6) 17.5 11.6 2.0 Russell Top 200

Mid (0.5) (0.5) 12.2 8.0 12.1 10.2 10.3 (12.8) 17.7 12.5 1.7 Russell Midcap

Small (0.1) (0.1) 11.8 8.4 11.5 9.8 13.8 (16.8) 17.3 12.3 1.5 Russell 2000

Micro 0.7 0.7 13.5 8.0 11.8 9.2 15.0 (21.0) 15.5 13.4 1.2 Russell Micro Cap

Style

Value (2.8) (2.8) 6.8 7.9 10.7 7.8 10.2 (10.4) 15.0 10.6 2.5 Russell 3000 Value

Core (0.6) (0.6) 13.8 10.2 13.0 9.6 10.0 (8.8) 17.5 11.9 1.9 Russell 3000

Grow th 1.5 1.5 21.1 12.6 15.3 11.3 10.5 (8.8) 20.8 13.4 1.3 Russell 3000 Growth

S&P 500 Sectors

Consumer Discretionary 3.1 3.1 16.9 12.2 15.7 14.6 11.6 (8.0) 21.1 14.4 1.3 S&P 500/Cons. Disc.

Consumer Staples (7.1) (7.1) (0.9) 5.4 8.6 9.5 10.4 (8.6) 16.5 9.4 3.0 S&P 500/Cons. Staples

Energy (5.9) (5.9) (0.2) (1.2) (0.4) 1.3 16.6 (38.7) 19.2 31.0 3.0 S&P 500/Energy

Financials (1.0) (1.0) 18.0 14.3 15.5 5.2 13.5 (15.2) 13.9 10.4 1.8 S&P 500/Financials

Health Care (1.2) (1.2) 11.3 5.6 13.9 12.2 11.8 (13.1) 15.9 10.8 1.7 S&P 500/Health Care

Industrials (1.6) (1.6) 14.0 11.7 14.0 8.9 11.3 (11.3) 18.0 11.9 2.0 S&P 500/Industrials

Information Technology 3.5 3.5 27.7 19.9 20.6 14.2 12.5 (8.2) 19.4 12.7 1.2 S&P 500/Info. Tech.

Materials (5.5) (5.5) 10.5 7.4 9.9 5.9 14.3 (22.7) 17.3 12.0 2.0 S&P 500/Materials

Telecomm (7.5) (7.5) (4.9) 4.7 4.1 5.8 14.6 (13.8) 10.6 4.3 5.6 S&P 500/Telecomm

Utilities (3.3) (3.3) 1.9 8.2 9.2 7.1 13.8 (12.7) 16.0 6.1 3.9 S&P 500/Utilities

Trailing Returns (%) 5-Year Risk Stats Other Metrics


-0.8-0.5

-0.1

-2.8

1.4

-2.5

2.2

-2.6

2.3

-0.8-0.5

-0.1

-2.8

1.4

-2.5

2.2

-2.6

2.3

-5

0

5

Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap LargeValue

LargeGrowth

MidValue

MidGrowth

SmallValue

SmallGrowth

Re

turn

(%

)

Last Quarter Year-to-Date

Domestic Asset Class Performance

Source: Morningstar Direct. Asset classes are represented by the following benchmarks: S&P 500 (Large Cap), Russell Midcap® (Mid Cap), Russell 2000® (Small Cap), Russell 1000 Value® (Large Value), Russell 1000 Growth® (Large Growth), Russell Midcap Value® (Mid Value), Russell Midcap Growth® (Mid Growth), Russell 2000 Value® (Small Value), and Russell 2000 Growth® (Small Growth). See important disclosures and definitions included with this publication.


Performance by Market Cap and Style


-7.5

-7.1

-5.9

-5.5

-3.3

-1.6

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

3.1

3.2

3.5

-10 -5 0 5

Telecomm

Cons. Staples

Energy

Materials

Utilities

Industrials

Health Care

Financials

S&P 500

Cons. Disc.

Real Estate

Info. Tech.

Return (%)

-7.5

-7.1

-5.9

-5.5

-5.0

-3.3

-1.6

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

3.1

3.5

-10 -5 0 5

Telecomm

Cons. Staples

Energy

Materials

Real Estate

Utilities

Industrials

Health Care

Financials

S&P 500

Cons. Disc.

Info. Tech.

Return (%)

Domestic Asset Class Performance



S&P 500 Index: Performance by Sector (Latest Quarter)

S&P 500 Index: Performance by Sector (YTD)

P/E Ratio

(TTM)

P/E Ratio

(NTM)

Dividend

Yield (%)

EPS Growth

(%)

S&P 500 Index 21.8 17.4 2.0 11.8

Consumer Discretionary 20.8 21.1 1.3 14.4

Consumer Staples 19.7 16.5 3.0 9.4

Energy 20.3 19.2 3.0 31.0

Financials 16.8 13.9 1.8 10.4

Health Care 26.4 15.9 1.7 10.8

Industrials 21.5 18.0 2.0 11.9

Info. Tech. 31.4 19.4 1.2 12.7

Materials 23.6 17.3 2.0 12.0

Real Estate 34.7 38.3 3.7 7.1

Telecomm 7.3 10.6 5.6 4.3

Utilities 17.0 16.0 3.9 6.1

S&P 500 Sector Statistics





Large Cap vs. Small Cap (Rolling 12-Month Periods)

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20


12-M

o P

erf

orm

an

ce

Dif

fere

nti

al

(%)

Large Cap Outperforms

Small Cap Outperforms

Value vs. Growth (Rolling 12-Month Periods)

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20


12

-Mo

Pe

rfo

rma

nc

e D

iffe

ren

tia

l (%

)

Defensive vs. Cyclical (Rolling 12-Month Periods)

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40


12

-Mo

Perf

orm

an

ce D

iffe

ren

tial (%

)

Value Outperforms

Growth Outperforms

Defensive Outperforms

Cyclical Outperforms


21.8

5

10

15

20

25


P/E

Rati

o (TT

M)

S&P 500 P/E 10-Year Average P/E

Average +1 Std. Dev. Average -1 Std. Dev.

20.2

5

10

15

20

25


P/E

Ra

tio

(T

TM

)

Mid Cap 10-Year Average P/E


21.4

5

10

15

20

25

30


P/E

Rati

o (

TT

M)

Small Cap 10-Year Average P/E


Historical Market Cap Valuations



S&P 500 Valuation History

Mid Cap Valuations History Small Cap Valuation History


Historical Sector Valuation and Growth Ranges



S&P 500 Sectors: 10-Year P/E Valuation Range

S&P 500 Sectors: 10-Year Earnings Growth Range

21.1

16.5

19.2

13.915.9

18.019.4

17.3

10.6

16.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Cons. Disc. Cons. Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Info Tech Materials Telecomm Utilities

P/E

Ra

tio

10-Year Low

10-Year High

Current

Average

LEGEND

14.4

9.4

31.0

10.4 10.811.9 12.7 12.0

4.36.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Cons. Disc. Cons. Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Info Tech Materia ls Telecomm Utilities

LT

Ea

rnin

gs

Gro

wth


Mutual Fund Over/Under Performance (Equity Funds)

Mutual Fund Style Universe: Style-specific universe of mutual funds as categorized by Morningstar. Number of funds in each category as of June 2017: 362 for Large Growth, 298 for Large Value, 178 for Mid Growth, 103 for Mid Value, 205 for Small Growth, 109 for Small Value, 154 for International, and 213 for Global. Source: Morningstar Direct; S&P 500, MSCI, and Russell benchmarks; Baird Analysis. See important disclosures and definitions included with this publication.

Mutual Fund

Performance

Active investment managers

often have a primary

objective of outperforming a

relevant market benchmark

based on the fund’s

investment style. In certain

periods, active managers

can find it easier or more

difficult to outperform.

This chart examines seven

main assets classes,

detailing what percentage of

mutual fund managers over-

or under-performed in a

given period. This provides

useful context when

assessing mutual funds that

you may own.

Percent of Funds Outperforming Market Benchmarks (Trailing 1 Year)


45%

75%

40%

56%44%

62% 64%

44%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

LargeGrowth

LargeValue

MidGrowth

MidValue

SmallGrowth

SmallValue

Int'l Global

Pe

rce

nt o

f T

ota

l

% Underperform

% Outperform

Percent of Funds Outperforming Market Benchmarks (Trailing 5 Years)

24%

42%

25% 28%34%

43% 46% 50%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

LargeGrowth

LargeValue

MidGrowth

MidValue

SmallGrowth

SmallValue

Int'l Global

Pe

rce

nt o

f T

ota

l

% Underperform

% Outperform


Global Market Performance

Source: Standards & Poor’s (S&P 500); MSCI benchmarks (country returns). All performance is measured in USD. See important disclosures and definitions included with this publication.


Year-to-Date Performance

S&P 500

-0.8%

Canada

-7.2%

Mexico

0.9%

UK

-3.9%

France

0.4%

Spain

-1.7%

Germany

-3.5%

Brazil

12.5%

Japan

1.0%

Hong Kong

-1.4%

China

1.8%

India

-7.0%

Australia

-6.1%

South Africa

-4.0%

Europe

-1.9% Russia

9.4%


International Equity Snapshot

Source: Morningstar Direct; MSCI benchmarks. Performance greater than one year is annualized. Performance is represented by the benchmark listed in the “representative benchmark” column. See important disclosures and definitions included with this publication.


Asset Class/Region Last Qtr YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 2017 2016 2015 Benchmark

Broad Developed Markets

Developed Markets (USD) (1.5) (1.5) 14.8 5.6 6.5 2.7 25.0 1.0 (0.8) MSCI EAFE (Net) USD

Developed Markets (Local Currency) (4.3) (4.3) 5.3 3.4 8.5 4.5 15.2 5.3 5.3 MSCI EAFE (Net) Local

Currency Effect (USD - Local Returns) 2.7 2.7 9.5 2.2 (2.0) (1.8) 9.8 (4.3) (6.1)

Broad Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets 1.4 1.4 24.9 8.8 5.0 3.0 37.3 11.2 (14.9) MSCI Emerging Markets (Net)

BRIC 2.2 2.2 30.1 11.0 6.6 2.1 42.0 12.4 (13.3) MSCI BRIC

Returns by Style

Value (2.0) (2.0) 12.2 4.3 5.8 2.0 21.4 5.0 (5.7) MSCI EAFE Value

Grow th (1.0) (1.0) 17.5 6.7 7.1 3.4 28.9 (3.0) 4.1 MSCI EAFE Growth

Large Cap (1.6) (1.6) 13.9 4.9 5.9 2.4 24.0 1.1 (2.1) MSCI EAFE Large Cap

Mid Cap (1.4) (1.4) 18.1 8.2 9.0 4.1 29.0 0.7 4.4 MSCI EAFE Mid Cap

Small Cap 0.2 0.2 23.5 12.3 11.1 6.5 33.0 2.2 9.6 MSCI EAFE Small Cap

Returns by Region

Europe (1.9) (1.9) 15.1 5.4 7.0 2.7 26.2 0.2 (2.3) MSCI Europe

Japan 1.0 1.0 20.0 8.7 9.3 4.3 24.4 2.7 9.9 MSCI Japan

Pacif ic (ex Japan) (3.7) (3.7) 8.6 5.2 3.4 4.8 26.0 8.0 (8.4) MSCI Pacific ex Japan

Trailing Returns (%) Annual Returns (%)


International Country Performance

Source: Morningstar Direct.; MSCI Indices; Baird Analysis. All returns are reported in USD. MSCI EAFE (Developed markets) and MSCI EM (Emerging markets) are broad benchmarks representing many countries. Includes the 10 largest countries by weighting in the benchmark. See important disclosures and definitions included with this publication.


Selected Country Performance (Latest Quarter) Selected Country Performance (Year to Date)

-7.1

-7.0

-4.0

-0.4

0.9

1.4

1.8

5.7

8.5

9.4

12.5

-6.1

-3.9

-3.9

-3.5

-1.9

-1.6

-1.5

0.4

1.0

1.0

5.4

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

Indonesia

India

South Africa

South Korea

Mexico

MSCI Em. Mkts

China

Taiwan

Malaysia

Russia

Brazil

Australia

Switzerland

U.K.

Germany

Sweden

Spain

MSCI EAFE

France

Japan

Netherlands

Italy

Return (%)

Em

erg

ing

Mark

ets

D

ev

elo

ped

Mark

ets

-7.1

-7.0

-4.0

-0.4

0.9

1.4

1.8

5.7

8.5

9.4

12.5

-6.1

-3.9

-3.9

-3.5

-1.9

-1.6

-1.5

0.4

1.0

1.0

5.4

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

Indonesia

India

South Africa

South Korea

Mexico

MSCI Em. Mkts

China

Taiwan

Malaysia

Russia

Brazil

Australia

Switzerland

U.K.

Germany

Sweden

Spain

MSCI EAFE

France

Japan

Netherlands

Italy

Return (%)


Financials23.6

Industrials11.9

Cons. Disc.11.5

Cons. Staples9.2

Info. Tech.11.8

Health Care7.6

Materials8.2

Energy6.6

Telecomm3.9

Utilities2.8

Real Estate3.1

-4.1

-2.9

-2.8

-1.8

-1.6

-1.2

-1.1

-1.0

-0.3

1.2

1.8

-5 0 5

Telecomm

Materials

Cons. Staples

Energy

Industrials

MSCI ACWI ex US

Financials

Cons. Disc.

Health Care

Utilities

Info. Tech.

Return (%)

-4.1

-2.9

-2.8

-1.8

-1.6

-1.2

-1.1

-1.0

-0.3

1.2

1.8

-5 0 5

Telecomm

Materials

Cons. Staples

Energy

Industrials

MSCI ACWI Ex US

Financials

Cons. Disc.

Health Care

Utilities

Info. Tech.

Return (%)

International Economic Sector Performance

Source: Morningstar Direct; Baird Analysis. Sectors based on global industry classification standards (GICS). The MSCI ACWI Ex US Index is a benchmark designed to measure developed market and emerging market performance excluding the U.S. See important disclosures in appendix.


MSCWI ACWI Ex U.S. Performance by Sector (Latest Quarter)

Sector Weighting (%) of the MSCI ACWI Ex U.S. Index

MSCWI ACWI Ex U.S. Performance by Sector (Year to Date)


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15


12-M

o P

erf

orm

an

ce

Dif

fere

nti

al

(%)

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50


12-M

o P

erf

orm

an

ce

Dif

fere

nti

al

(%)

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18

12-M

o P

erf

orm

an

ce

Dif

fere

nti

al

(%)


Source: Morningstar Direct. Returns based on 12-month performance, calculated monthly over the most recent 10-year period. Benchmark proxies are as follows: S&P 500 (U.S.), MSCI EAFE (Int’l), MSCI EAFE Value (Value) and MSCI EAFE Growth (Growth), MSCI EAFE (Developed markets), and MSCI EM (Emerging markets). See important disclosures and definitions included with this publication.


U.S. vs. International (Rolling 12-Month Periods)

U.S. Outperforms

Int’l Outperforms

Developed vs. Emerging Markets (Rolling 12-Month Periods) Value vs. Growth (Rolling 12-Month Periods)

Developed Outperforms

Emg. Markets Outperforms

Value Outperforms

Growth Outperforms


21.8

14.3

14.9

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25


P/E

Ratio

(TTM

)

S&P 500 MSCI EAFE MSCI EM

Global Stock Market Valuations

Source: Standards & Poor’s (S&P 500); MSCI benchmarks (country returns). All performance is measured in USD. US is measured by the S&P 500 Index, Developed International is measured by the MSCI EAFE Index, Emerging International is measured by the MSCI EM Index. P/E ratios are based on trailing 12 month earnings. See important disclosures and definitions included with this publication.


Historical P/E Ratio

Current P/E Ratio of Selected Countries

14.214.8

16.4

13.0 12.6

14.0

16.016.7

14.3

11.9

8.7

13.3

17.5

21.8

8.77.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

UK France Switzerland Germany Spain Japan Australia Hong Kong Singapore China S. Korea Brazil S. Africa India Mexico Russia

P/E

Ra

tio

(T

TM

)

Europe Asia-Pacific Emerging Markets


17.5

14.9 14.2

16.414.8

13.0

15.8

12.6

15.6

12.2

19.518.2

14.016.0 16.7

14.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

P/E

Ra

tio

Country Valuation Ranges

Source: Morningstar Direct. USA is represented by the S&P 500. All other countries are represented by the respective MSCI country benchmark. P/E ratios are based on trailing 12 month earnings. See important disclosures and definitions included with this publication.


Developed Markets: 7-Year P/E Valuation Ranges

Emerging Markets: 7-Year P/E Valuation Ranges

7-Year Low

7-Year High

Current

Average

LEGEND

11.9

8.7

13.8

21.8

7.7

16.8 16.9 16.2

13.3

8.7

19.7

12.1

17.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

P/E

Ra

tio

Fixed Income



Bond Market Snapshot

Source: Morningstar Direct; Barclays benchmarks. Individual security types are subsets of either the Barclays U.S. Aggregate or Municipal Bond benchmarks. Duration, measured in years, is a relative term that expresses the price sensitivity of an investment/benchmark to changes in interest rates. All else equal, the lower the duration, the less price sensitivity to interest rate changes. See important disclosures and definitions included with this publication.


Bond Types Yield (%) Duration Last Qtr YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 2017 2016 2015 Benchmark

Broad Developed Markets

U.S. Taxable Bonds 3.1 6.1 (1.5) (1.5) 1.2 1.2 1.8 3.6 3.5 2.6 0.5 BBgBarc US Aggregate Bond

U.S. Municipal Bonds 2.7 6.0 (1.1) (1.1) 2.7 2.3 2.7 4.4 5.4 0.2 3.3 BBgBarc Municipal Bond

International Bonds 0.8 8.0 3.6 3.6 11.7 4.6 1.2 1.8 10.5 1.5 (6.0) BBgBarc Glbl Agg. Bond ex US

Broad Emerging Markets

Emerging Market Bonds 5.0 5.8 (1.5) (1.5) 3.2 5.1 3.9 6.8 8.2 9.9 1.3 BBgBarc Emerging Markets

Taxable Bond Categories

Treasuries 2.6 6.1 (1.2) (1.2) 0.4 0.4 1.1 2.7 2.3 1.0 0.8 BBgBarc US Treasury

Agencies 2.6 6.0 (1.1) (1.1) 0.4 0.5 1.1 2.7 2.3 1.0 0.9 BBgBarc US Government

Mortgage-Backed 3.3 5.1 (1.2) (1.2) 0.8 1.1 1.8 3.5 2.5 1.7 1.5 BBgBarc US MBS

Inv-Grade Corporate 3.8 7.5 (2.3) (2.3) 2.7 2.3 3.0 5.4 6.4 6.1 (0.7) BBgBarc US Corporate IG

High Yield Corporate 6.2 4.1 (0.9) (0.9) 3.7 5.2 5.0 8.1 7.5 17.5 (4.6) BofA/ML High Yield Master II

Municipal Bond Categories

Insured 2.9 6.5 (1.2) (1.2) 2.6 2.2 3.1 4.6 5.4 0.7 2.9 BBgBarc Municipal Insured

State GO 2.5 5.3 (1.2) (1.2) 1.9 1.7 2.1 4.0 4.7 (0.4) 3.0 BBgBarc Municipal State GO

Local GO 2.6 6.6 (1.2) (1.2) 2.8 2.2 2.7 4.4 5.9 (0.1) 3.2 BBgBarc Municipal Local GO

Revenue 2.8 3.4 (1.2) (1.2) 3.1 2.5 3.0 4.7 6.0 0.4 3.6 BBgBarc Municipal Revenue

High Yield 5.3 8.1 0.6 0.6 6.0 4.6 4.1 5.6 9.7 3.0 1.8 BBgBarc High Yield Muni

Annual Returns (%)Trailing Returns (%)Characteristics


-0.2

-1.2

-3.6

-2.9

-1.9

-2.4

-2.1

-0.9

-0.2

-1.2

-3.6

-2.9

-1.9

-2.4

-2.1

-0.9

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

Short-Term Intermediate Long-Term AAA AA A Baa Below Baa(High Yield)

Re

turn

(%

)

QTR YTD

0.3

-1.2

-1.6

-1.2-1.1 -1.2

-1.0

0.6

0.3

-1.2

-1.6

-1.2-1.1 -1.2

-1.0

0.6

-2

-1

0

1

Short-Term Intermediate Long-Term AAA AA A Baa Below Baa(High Yield)

Re

turn

(%

)

QTR YTD

Performance by Maturity and Credit Quality

Source: Bloomberg; Baird Analysis. Ratings are as defined by Bloomberg and represent bonds in the Barclays Aggregate Bond index (taxable bonds) and Barclays Municipal Index (municipal bonds). Short-term maturity is defined as 1-3 years, intermediate is 5-7 years for taxable and 6-8 for municipal, long-term is 10+ years for taxable and 8-12 years for municipal. See important disclosures and definitions included with this publication.


Taxable Bonds

Municipal Bonds


Yield and Volatility Characteristics of Various Bond Types

Source: Morningstar Direct; Barclays benchmarks. Individual security types are subsets of either the Barclays U.S. Aggregate or Municipal Bond benchmarks. Bond types are represented by the following indices: Barclays Aggregate Bond (Broad Bond Market), Barclays US MBS (Mortgage-Backed), Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II (High Yield), Barclays IG Corporate (Corporate), Barclays Municipal (Municipal), Barclays US Treasury (U.S. Treasury), Barclays Global Aggregate ex USD (International), and S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan (Bank Loans). Indices are unmanaged and are used to measure and report performance of various sectors of the market. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and diversification does not ensure against loss. Direct investment in indices is not available. See important disclosures and definitions included with this publication.


The Relationship Between Yield and Volatility

International

Bank Loans

Emerging Mkts

Broad Bond Market

High Yield

Treasury

Mortgage-Backed Corporate

Municipal

HY Municipal

0

2

4

6

8

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Yie

ld (%

)

10-Year Historical Volatility (Standard Deviation)


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Yie

ld (

%)

Maturity

03/31/18 Current Qtr

03/31/17 Last Year

20yr

6m

o

2yr

3yr

5yr

30 y

r

U.S. Treasury Bonds


Source: U.S. Department of Treasury; Baird Analysis. See important disclosures and definitions included with this publication.

U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Historical U.S. Treasury Rates

Current U.S. Treasury Yields by Maturity

1.731.93

2.272.39

2.562.74

2.97

0

1

2

3

4

3 mo 6 mo 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 10 yr 30 yr

Yie

ld (

%)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

10

-Year U

.S. Treasu

ry R

ate

(%

)


1.71.9

2.12.3 2.4

2.6 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.0

1.4 1.5 1.61.7

1.82.1

2.32.5

2.9 3.0

2.3 2.32.5

2.72.9

3.33.6

3.9

4.64.8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

3mo 6mo 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 20yr 30yr

Yie

ld (

%)

Treasury

Municipal

Tax-Equivalent Yield

U.S. Treasury Bonds


Source: U.S. Department of Treasury; Bloomberg. Municipal yields are based on the Barclays AAA GO Bond Index. The Tax-Equivalent Yields assumes a 39.6% federal tax rate and full exemption of those taxes. See important disclosures and definitions included with this publication.

U.S. Municipal and Treasury Yield Curve

Yield Comparisons of Treasury and Municipal Bonds

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Yie

ld (

%)

Maturity

Treasury Municipal

20yr

3m

o6m

o

10yr

30yr5

yr


0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-14 Mar-16 Mar-18

Eff

ec

tiv

e Y

ield

(%

)

5.1

6.5

10.5

0.73.8

26.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

BB B CCC

Av

era

ge

De

fau

lt R

ate

(%

)

Eff

ec

tiv

e Y

ield

(%

)

3.4 3.33.6

4.1

0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

AAA AA A BBB

Av

era

ge

De

fau

lt R

ate

(%

)

Eff

ec

tiv

e Y

ield

(%

)

Corporate Bond Yields


Source: BofA/Merrill Lynch, Standard & Poor’s. Investment Grade Bonds are represented by the BofA/ML US Corporate Bond Index; High Yield Bonds are represented by the BofA/ML High Yield Master II Index. Historic default rates provided by Standard & Poor’s and encompass the period from 1/1/81 to 12/31/16. See important disclosures and definitions included with this publication.

Investment Grade Bonds: Historical Yields Investment Grade Bonds: Current Yield and Historic Default Rate

High Yield Bonds: Historical Yields High Yield Bonds: Current Yield & Historic Default Rate

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-14 Mar-16 Mar-18

Eff

ec

tiv

e Y

ield

(%

)


Bond Spreads


Source: Barclays, Bloomberg. The length of each bar represents the range of a particular spread relative to an appropriate Treasury benchmark over the past 10 years. The maximum and minimum spreads are capped at the 95th and 5th percentiles to account for outliers. The data point marked ‘current’ represents the most recent quarter. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results and this chart is not intended to be a valuation tool.

Average Option-Adjusted Spread: Max/Min/Avg

1772

575

169 145 145

336

97

4 34

10 (100)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

High Yield Corporate MBS Global Agencies

Sp

read

over

Tre

asu

ry B

on

d (b

ps)

Current Average

High Yield Corporate MBS Global Agencies

High 1772 575 169 145 145

Average 607 186 48 63 29

Low 336 97 4 34 10

Current 343 93 25 38 14

Current/Historical Spreads (%)


Bond Sector Yields and Returns


Source: Barclays, Baird Analysis. Sector yields reflect yield to worst. Change in bond price is calculated using both duration and convexity according to the following formula: New Price = (Price + (Price * -Duration * Change in Interest Rates)) + (0.5 * Price * Convexity * (Change in Interest Rates)^2). Chart is for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Price Impact of a 1% Rise/Fall in Interest Rates

Bond Sector Avg. Maturity Avg. Yield Credit Quality YTD 1-Year Benchmark

Short-Term 2.8 2.4 AA+ -0.40% -0.40% BBgBarc US Treasury 1-5 Yr

Intermediate-Term 7.0 2.7 AA+ -1.51% -0.25% BBgBarc US Treasury 5-10 Yr

Long-Term 14.5 2.8 AA+ -2.47% 0.37% BBgBarc US Treasury 10-20 Yr

TIPS 8.2 2.8 AA+ -0.79% 0.92% BBgBarc US Treasury US TIPS

Aggregate Bond 8.4 3.1 AA -1.46% 1.20% BBgBarc U.S. Aggregate Bond

IG Corporates 11.1 3.8 AA+ -2.32% 2.70% BBgBarc U.S. Corporate IG

HY Corporates 6.2 6.5 B -0.86% 3.78% BBgBarc U.S. High Yield - 2% Issuer Cap

Floating Rates 2.6 2.3 A+ 0.44% 2.09% BBgBarc U.S. Floating Rate Notes

MBS 7.4 3.3 AAA -1.19% 0.77% BBgBarc U.S. Mortgage Backed Securities

ABS 2.2 2.8 AA+ -0.39% 0.62% BBgBarc Asset-Backed Securities

U.S. Treasuries

Returns

Broad Market

Sector Statistics

-2.7%

-6.2%-7.2%

-10.0%

-0.1%

-2.1%

-4.4%

-6.4%-5.6% -6.2%

-7.0%

2.8%

6.7%8.1%

11.5%

0.1%

2.1%

4.1%5.3% 4.7%

6.5%8.1%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

1-5 Yr

Treasury

5-10 Yr

Treasury

TIPS 10-20 Yr.

Treasury

Floating Rate ABS HY Corporates MBS Municipals Total Bond

Market

IG Corporates

+1% -1%


Mutual Fund Over/Under Performance (Bond Funds)

Mutual Fund Style Universe: Style-specific universe of mutual funds as categorized by Morningstar. Number of funds in each category as of March 2017: 103 for Short-Term Taxable, 227 Intermediate Term Taxable, 50 for Short-Term Municipal, and 77 for Intermediate Municipal. Source: Morningstar Direct; Barclays benchmarks; Baird Analysis. See important disclosures and definitions included with this publication.

Mutual Fund

Performance

Active investment managers

often have a primary

objective of outperforming a

relevant market benchmark

based on the fund’s

investment style. In certain

periods, active managers

can find it easier or more

difficult to outperform.

This chart examines four

main assets classes,

detailing what percentage of

mutual fund managers over-

or under-performed in a

given period. This provides

useful context when

assessing mutual funds that

you may own.

Percent of Funds Outperforming Market Benchmarks (Trailing 1 Year)


Percent of Funds Outperforming Market Benchmarks (Trailing 5 Years)

82%91%

78% 82%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Short Term Taxable Intermediate Taxable Short Term Municipal Intermediate Municipal

Pe

rce

nt o

f T

ota

l

% Underperform

% Outperform

78%87%

23%

52%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Short Term Taxable Intermediate Taxable Short Term Municipal Intermediate Municipal

Pe

rce

nt o

f T

ota

l

% Underperform

% Outperform

Appendix and Important Disclosures

Disclosures

Disclaimers

This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any company, industry or security. The

information has been obtained from sources we consider to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee the

accuracy. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Style Definitions

Large Growth: equity securities of large capitalization companies having growth stock characteristics (high

price to earnings, high return on equity and low dividend yield. Based upon the Russell 1000® Growth Index.

Large Value: equity securities of large capitalization companies having value stock characteristics (low

forecasted price-to-earnings ratio, low price-to-book ratio, high dividend yield). Based upon the Russell 1000®

Value Index. Mid Growth: equity securities of middle capitalization companies having growth stock

characteristics (high price to earnings, high return on equity and low dividend yield). Based upon the Russell

Midcap® Growth Index. Mid Value: equity securities of middle capitalization companies having growth stock

characteristics (high price to earnings, high return on equity and low dividend yield). Based upon the Russell

Midcap® Value Index. Small Growth: equity securities of small capitalization companies having growth stock

characteristics (high price to earnings, high return on equity and low dividend yield). Small capitalization stock

may be subject to additional risks including illiquidity. Based upon the Russell 2000® Growth Index. Small

Value: equity securities of small capitalization companies having value stock characteristics (low price-to-

earnings ratio, low price-to-book ratio, high dividend yield). Small capitalization stocks may be subject to

additional risks including illiquidity. Based upon the Russell 2000® Value Index. International: a free float-

adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance,

excluding the US & Canada, consisting of 21 developed market country indices. Based upon the MSCI EAFE

Index. Satellite: these asset classes, as defined by Baird, include commodities, real estate, high yield bonds

and emerging markets. Representative benchmarks are as follows: Dow Jones UBS Commodity

(commodities), Dow Jones US REIT (real estate), BofA High Yield Master II (high yield), and MSCI Emerging

Markets (emerging markets). Short Term Taxable: Short-term bond portfolios invest primarily in corporate

and other investment-grade U.S. fixed-income issues and have durations of one to 3.5 years. Based upon the

Barclays 1-3 Year Govt/Credit Index. Intermediate Taxable: Intermediate-term bond portfolios invest

primarily in corporate and other investment-grade U.S. fixed-income issues and have durations of 3.5 to six

years. Based upon the Barclays Intermediate Gov’t/Credit Index. Short Term Municipal: Muni national short

portfolios invest in bonds issued by various state and local governments to fund public projects. These

portfolios have durations of less than 4.5 years. Based upon the Barclays 3 Year Municipal Index.

Intermediate Term Municipal: Muni national short portfolios invest in bonds issued by various state and

local governments to fund public projects. These portfolios have durations of 4.5 to 7 years. Based upon the

Barclays 7 Year Municipal Index.

GICS

The Global Industry Classification Standard ("GICS") is the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley Capital

International Inc. ("MSCI") and Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. ("S&P") and

is licensed for use by Robert W. Baird & Co. Inc. MSCI and S&P hereby provided all information "as is" and

expressly disclaim all warranties. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI or S&P have

any liability.

Domestic Equity Benchmarks

S&P 500® Index: A representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S.

economy. Considered a large-cap index.

Russell 3000® Growth Index: Measures the performance of those Russell 3000® Index companies with

higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. An all-cap index.

Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of a fund carefully before investing. This

and other information is found in the prospectus or summary prospectus. For a prospectus or summary prospectus, contact

your Baird Financial Advisor. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.

Russell 3000® Value Index: Measures the performance of those Russell 3000® Index companies with lower

price to- book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. An all-cap index.

Russell Top 50® Index: Measures the performance of the 50 largest companies in the Russell 1000® Index,

which represents approximately 40% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000® Index. A mega-cap

index.

Russell Top 200® Index: Measures the performance of the 200 largest companies in the Russell 1000®

Index, which represents approximately 68% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000® Index. A

large-cap index.


higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. A large-cap index.


price to- book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. A large-cap index.

Russell 1000® Defensive/Dynamic Index: Measures the performance of those Russell 1000® Index

companies based in terms of volatility of price and earnings, leverage and return on assets. The Russell 1000®

Defensive Index includes those with relative stability and less sensitivity to economic cycles. The Russell

1000® Dynamics Index includes those with less stability and greater sensitivity to economic cycles.

Russell Midcap® Index: Measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies of the Russell 1000®

Index, which represents approximately 36% of the total capitalization of the Russell 1000® Index. A mid-cap

index.

Russell Midcap® Growth Index: Measures the performance of those Russell Midcap® Index companies with

higher price-to-book and higher forecasted growth values. A midcap index.

Russell Midcap® Value Index: Measures the performance of those Russell Midcap companies with lower

price-to book and lower forecasted growth values. A mid-cap index.

Russell 2000® Index: Measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000®

Index, which represent approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000® Index. A

small-cap index.


higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. A small-cap index.


price-to- book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. A small-cap index.

Russell Microcap Index: Measures the performance of smallest 1000 companies in the Russell 2000® Index,

which represents less than 3% of the total market capitalization. A micro-cap index.

Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate: Measures the performance of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT) and other

companies that invest directly or indirectly through development, management or ownership, including

properties.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: A price-weighted index composed of 30 actively-traded large cap stocks.

Bloomberg Commodity: Aims to provide broadly diversified representation of commodity markets and

represents 20 commodities, weighted based on economic significance and market liquidity.

S&P 500® High/Low Quality Index: The S&P Quality Rankings System measures growth and stability of

earnings and dividends within the S&P 500 Index. The S&P 500 High Quality Index tracks stocks identified by

Standard & Poor’s as high quality (ranked A and above); The S&P 500 Low Quality Index tracks stocks

identified by Standard & Poor’s as low quality (ranked B and below).

The Russell Indices are a trademark of the Frank Russell Company. Russell® is a trademark of the Frank

Russell Company.

Disclosures

Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of a fund carefully before investing. This

and other information is found in the prospectus or summary prospectus. For a prospectus or summary prospectus, contact

your Baird Financial Advisor. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.

MSCI International Equity Benchmarks

MSCI EAFE Index: A free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed

market equity performance, excluding the US & Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of 21 developed

market country indices in Europe, Australasia, and the Far East. An international index.

MSCI EAFE Large Cap: The MSCI EAFE Large Cap Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of large

companies in developed markets, excluding the U.S and Canada. An international large cap index.

MSCI EAFE Mid Cap: The MSCI EAFE Mid Cap Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index

that is designed to measure the performance of mid capitalization equities in the developed markets excluding

the US & Canada. An international mid cap index.

MSCI EAFE Small Cap: The MSCI EAFE Small Cap Index represents the small cap segment in 21

developed equity markets outside of North America. It targets 40% of the eligible small cap universe in each

country. An international small cap index.

MSCI EAFE Growth: A sub-set of the MSCI EAFE Index, this benchmark is generally considered to be

representative of the international growth stock market activity and often used as a benchmark for

international growth equity portfolios. An international growth index.

MSCI EAFE Value: A sub-set of the MSCI EAFE Index, this benchmark is generally considered to be

representative of international value stock market activity and often used as a benchmark for international

value equity portfolios. An international value index.

MSCI Europe Index: A free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed

market equity performance in Europe. As of June 2006, the MSCI Europe Index consisted of the following 16

developed market country indices: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland,

Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK. An international index.

MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index: A free float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure equity

market performance in the Pacific region, minus Japan. As of June 2006, the MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index

consisted of the following 5 Developed Market countries: Australia, Hong Kong, New Zealand, and Singapore.

An international index.

MSCI BRIC: A free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity

market performance of the following four emerging market country indices: Brazil, Russia, India and China.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index: A free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure

equity market performance in the global emerging markets. As of December 2003 the MSCI Emerging

Markets Index consisted of 26 emerging market country indices. An emerging markets index.

MSCI Country Indices: To construct an MSCI Country Index, every listed security in the market is identified.

Securities are free float adjusted, classified in accordance with the Global Industry Classification Standard

(GICS®), and screened by size and liquidity. MSCI then constructs its indices by targeting for index inclusion

85% of the free float adjusted market capitalization in each industry group, within each country. By targeting

85% of each industry group, the MSCI Country Index captures 85% of the total country market capitalization

while it accurately reflects the economic diversity of the market. International indices.

Fixed Income Benchmarks

Barclays Aggregate Bond Index: is an unmanaged index that tracks domestic investment-grade bonds,

including corporate, government, and mortgage-backed securities.

Barclays 1-3 Yr Government/Credit Bond Index: Includes bonds covered by the Barclays

Government/Credit Index, with maturities from 1 up to (but not including) 3 years.

Barclays Intermediate Government/Credit Bond Index: Composed of approximately 3,500 publicly issued

corporate and U.S. government debt issues rated Baa or better, with at least one year to maturity and at least

$1 million par outstanding. The index is weighted by the market value of the issues included in the index. The

Index has duration of a little over 3 years and a maturity equal to slightly more than 4 years.

Barclays Muni Bond Index: Bonds must have a minimum credit rating of at least Baa, an outstanding par

value of at least $3 million, part of a transaction of at least $50 million, issued after December 31, 1990 and

have a year or longer remaining maturity.

Barclays 3 Year Muni Bond Index: Includes bonds that have a minimum credit rating of BAA3, are issued

as part of a deal of at least $50 million, have a minimum maturity of 2 years and a maximum maturity of 4

years, and have been issued after December 31, 1990.

Barclays 7 Year Muni Bond Index: This index is a subset of the BC Municipal Bond Index. It includes

maturities of six to eight years.

Barclays Global Aggregate ex USD Index: Tracks investment-grade government, corporate, agency, and

mortgage-related bonds in markets outside the U.S. An international bond index.

BofA/ML US High Yield Master II Index: The US High Yield Master II Index tracks the performance of below

investment grade US dollar-denominated corporate bonds publicly issued in the US domestic market, subject

to various qualifications. A high yield taxable bond index.

Barclays US Treasury Bond Index: Measures the performance of public obligations of the US Treasury with

a remaining maturity of one year or more.

Barclays US MBS Index: Measures the performance of investment grade mortgage-backed pass-through

securities of GNMA, FNMA and FHLMC.

Barclays IG Corporate: Measures the performance of investment grade corporate bonds with a remaining

maturity of one year or more.

Citigroup Treasury Bill 3 Month: An unmanaged index of three-month Treasury bills. Representative of

short-term money market deposits, or “cash”.

S&P/LTSA Leveraged Loan: A broad index designed to reflect the performance of U.S. dollar facilities in the

leverage loan market.

Other Benchmarks

Dow Jones CSFB Managed Futures: Designed to provide transparent representation of managed futures

hedge fund performance. Funds are selected by Credit Suisse based on eligibility standards, rebalanced

semi-annually and performance is calculated quarterly.

Dow Jones CSFB Multi-Strategy: Designed to provide transparent representation of fund of hedge fund

performance. Funds are selected by Credit Suisse based on eligibility standards, rebalanced semi-annually

and performance is calculated quarterly.

Dow Jones CSFB Long/Short: Designed to provide transparent representation of long/short equity hedge

fund performance. Funds are selected by Credit Suisse based on eligibility standards, rebalanced semi-

annually and performance is calculated quarterly.

q4 2016 market chartbook

Documents