marwa elcheikh senior risk analyst, crossrailecrisponsor.org/npresentations/2-3lo15.pdf · fails to...
TRANSCRIPT
Marwa ElCheikh
Senior Risk Analyst, Crossrail
Crossrail Risk Management
What is Crossrail?
Risk Management Challenges
Role of Supply chain and Insurance
Risk and Assurance
Conclusions
Risk and Assurance on Crossrail
What is Crossrail?
A new railway for London and the south east
Over 100 km from east to west
24 trains per hour in each direction
More than 200 million passenger journey per annum
Adds 10% to London’s rail capacity
£14.8bn funding
38 stations served
9 new stations built
42 km new tunnels
8 million cubic metres of spoil
4300+ Parliamentary
commitments
Europe’s largest infrastructure project
14,000 employed
Why Crossrail?
24 trains per hour
200 million journeys per year
£42bn+ benefits
What is Crossrail?
Risk Management Challenges
Role of Supply chain and Insurance
Risk and Assurance
Conclusions
Risk and Assurance on Crossrail
Managing the project
Risk Management Challenges
Tunnelling
Integrating the Railway
Managing Europe’s Largest Construction Project
The Crossrail Route
Tier 1 Contractors and others…
Industry Partners
Delivery Partners
Transcend PDP
An industry wide project
Sponsors
Construction on staggering scale
Paddington Bond Street Tottenham Court Road Farringdon Liverpool Street
Whitechapel Canary Wharf Woolwich Custom House
Programme Management
140 main works contracts
40 worksites
10,000 suppliers
1 million activity schedule
Extended to Reading
27 station upgrades
2 major structures
61km of track
179 switches & crossings
150 km OLE
Signalling upgrade
Network Rail surface works
Risk Management at Crossrail
“Managing risk and uncertainty is critical
to the successful delivery of Crossrail”
Andrew Wolstenholme OBE
Chief Executive of Crossrail Limited
Drivers of Risk Management
Delivery
Avoid nasty surprises
Identify opportunities to improve
Head off issues before they impact
Commercial
Ensure that commercial exposure of the organisation is understood and managed
Inform allocation of risk between parties through contracts
Engineering
Monitor the mitigation of risk through design
Ensure that works are delivered safely and that output is fit for purpose
Finance
Understand true exposure to risk and uncertainty
Support investment decisions through assessment of risk impacts
Risk
Support Delivery : Provide Assurance : Inform Decision Making
RISK MANAGEMENT:
Risk Hierarchy
Risk Governance Risk Reporting
Crossrail
Limited Board
Executive
Committee
Risk Sub-
Committee
Programme
Risk Panel
Delivery
Reviews
Audit
Committee
1) Report
2) Escalate
3) Aggregate
Contractor Risks
Project Risks
Strategic Risks
Programme Risks
Sector Risks
Strategic
Programme
Sector
Projects
Contracts
Risk Hierarchy
Labour Shortage
Disruptions to 3rd parties due
to construction activities
Access to Site
Interface between contracts
Railway integration
e.g.
Funding
Reflects organisation / governance hierarchy
Interface between projects
Keeping it simple
Identify Assess Respond
Prioritise by assessing ‘Probability’ and ‘Impact’ Terminate
Transfer
Treat
Tolerate
Uncertainty that matters Risk is:
Risk Management is:
Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA)
Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) provides a measure of risk exposure and is a key part of our reporting to Sponsors
Managing Risk with the Supply Chain
Complex nature and size of Crossrail works makes it imperative that contractors manage risk
Works Information places this requirement on contractors
Performance assurance process their performance
Crossrail
Contractors
Risk Registers !? Significant Risks
Risk Profile
Progress with Actions
Performance Is the risk exposure reducing?
Are Risk Management actions completed and effective?
How risky is this project?
What are the significant risks?
Contractor Scorecard
JCOP – Joint Code of Practice for Risk Management of Tunnelling Works in the UK
A key document – Code of Practice for Tunnelling Works by
The Association of British Insurers
The British Tunnelling Society
Compliance reviewed and assessed by Insurance Industry
Insurance Risk
Management
JCOP – Joint Code of Practice for Fire Prevention on Construction Sites
A key document – Code of Practice for Fire Prevention by
The Association of British Insurers
Chief Fire Officers Association
London Fire Brigade
Compliance reviewed and assessed by Insurance Industry
Insurance Risk
Management
Assurance Activities
Working to improve the Target Zero culture and health & safety performance of Crossrail and its contractors
Activities include:
Audit and Assurance
Spreading Best Practice
Fire Safety
Business Continuity
Tunnelling
Running Tunnels
Running Tunnels
- Paddington to Stratford and
North Kent
- Bored Tunnels 7m diameter
- 30 - 40m depth
- 42km long
- 8 Tunnel Boring Machines
(TBMs)
Station Tunnels
Stations Tunnels
- Platform tunnels, circulation
areas, cross passages
- Sprayed Concrete Lining
(SCL)
- 16km tunnelling
Key Questions
How do we make sure that the tunnels are safe?
How do we deal with ground conditions and underground obstructions?
How do we avoid damage to buildings and services?
Tunnelling
Tunnelling
Risk Mitigations
Enabling works – diverting and
protecting utilities
Ground treatment
Monitoring
Risk management
(AIB Code of practice for risk
management in underground
construction)
People, process, culture
Tottenham Court Road
Liverpool Street
Tunnelling progress to date
Running tunnels:
Station tunnels:
43km 99% complete
17km 78% complete
Railway Integration
Station Fit Out
Under Platform Services Area
Station Structure
Track Systems
Traction Power & Overhead Line
Equipment
Emergency Walkway
Gravity Drainage
HV Power
LV Power
Tunnel Lighting
Communications& Control
Radio Systems
Signalling
Pla
tfo
rm D
oo
rs
Tunnel Ventilation
Pumped Drainage
Pump
Smoke Extract
Fire DetectionStation
Ventilation
Station Lighting Signage
Passenger Information
CCTV
PA / VA
Hel
p P
oin
t
Fire Main Station Cable Management
System
Station Systems
Automatic Fare Collection
Lifts & Escalators
Station Management
System
Station Heating, Cooling and Air
Conditioning
Route Wide Railway Infrastructure
Route Control Centre
Back Up Control Facility
Bulk Supply Points
Auto Trans-former Sites
Depots & Stabling
Rolling Stock
Paddington
Railway and Tunnel Systems
Railway Systems
Rolling Stock
200m long trains
1,500 seated and standing passengers per train at peak times
Regenerates energy during braking (major savings in energy and CO2 emissions)
Railway Integration Components
Systems Integration
Railway Integration – Central Section
Railway Integration – end to end
Operator, Maintainer, Infrastructure
Manager Readiness
Testing and Commissioning
Handover
Technical Assurance
8323 Railway fails to perform as intended / required by Sponsors Critical non performances by key players means Railway fails to perform as intended / required by Sponsors
Howard Smith
6151 Failure to integrate railway [with NR]
Chris Sexton
7851 An integrated railway is not delivered delaying Railway opening
Chris Sexton
6153 Delayed acceptance of stations and
railway systems by IM and other key
stakeholders
Chris Sexton
6827 Insufficient resilience of the railway in
operational service.
Programme Level
Provisionof technical assurance evidence to
satisfy IMs
Management of handover
872 Failure to manage Standards Baseline (Rail
Systems)
Failure to execute Trial Operations successfully
Project Level
Failure to capture Operations and Maintenance
requirements in procured works
Failure to integrate CTOC or other TOCs
1809 The railway is not delivered for technical reasons (Stages 1 - 5)“1. Failure to integrate the system”
Simon Wright
Strategic Level
6923 Operators and Infrastructure Managers may not be ready to take the railway into operation
resulting in delay to the railway opening.
Howard Smith
11497 The railway service cannot be operated effectively
at opening because of other rail operator/ regulator issues
Howard Smith
Failure to deliver Requirements
Failure to exploit “smart stations” / Digital Railway
opportunities
Operational integration with NR
Management of technical interfaces between
systems and contracts
Integration with Rolling Stock
Failure to integrate with LUL
Failure to execute or integrate the test and commissioning plan
Failure to manage the governance /
relationships with other parties
Failure to manage Railway Safety risk
transfer and mitigation with Operators
5980 (RI) Failure to implement the
Signalling System effectively
Chris Sexton> Development of the
fringe with NR signalling
> Complexity of integrating ATO/ATP
> Provision of a signalling system compatible with the Crossrail train in the
Heathrow Tunnel
> Integration into a single Driver DMI
> Development required to chosen signalling
system to integrate with NR control centres
> Signalling principles require further
unforeseen development
6826 Failure to meet Operators requirements
(Operational, Maintenance, Safety, Performance)
Jeremy Bates
883 Unable to obtain safety
approval for the railway
7984 Comments/Objection by ORR on the Construction
and Commissioning Rulebook
principles
11739 The testing and commissioning strategy may not be effectively
aligned with the planned permanent and
temporary power provision
12561 Operational Readiness – being ready to put the output
from Crossrail delivery and the RSD into full operational
serviceHoward Smith
Currently owned by J Bates – would need to be re-assigned and
promoted to Programme Risk
Promote to Strategic Level and assign to Simon Wright or Andrew
Wolstenholme
Promote to Strategic Level
Currently a Programme Risk
TBD The railway service cannot be operated
effectively because regulator fails to approve Crossrail
Simon Wright
2611, 8395 RCC building
6957 Changes to NR demarcation at PML
Lack of integration with NR’s test and commissioning plan
Lack of integration with NR’s test and commissioning plan
1000, 872, 13286
6135 On Network Works interface with Network Rail projects
Matt White
14090 NR Interfacing project to develop and deliver ETCS
may encounter technical, operational and schedule
challenges
1994 Continuing evolution of NR signalling
7622 Network Rail/TOC projects conflict with CRL programme commissioning requirements
5981 Provision of an ATP system (ETCS) in the Heathrow Tunnels
14090 NR Interfacing project to develop and deliver ETCS may encounter technical, operational and schedule challenges
GW works integration
South East Section works integration
Eastern works integration
Systems works integration
7489 Platform heights on GE routes are above standard and CRL may not be able to satisfy level-boarding gauge clearance requirements.
8115 – Constraints of legacy surface station platforms may give rise to an inability to install transmission systems for Driver Only Operated CCTV
10296 Lack of interface control between D&B for station fit-out, MEP, architectural and systemwide.
5900 Floating slab track interaction with rolling stock.
10471 PSD Entrapment
13159 Integration of PED and PES design solution
13159 Integration of PED and PES design solution
8516 Definition and coordination of interfaces: Civils to Systemwide
7490, 6822 Insufficient time for rolling stock testing
6305 Insufficient resources for commissioning
9728 Signalling Integration / Commissioning issues at interface with national network
7622 Commissioning of railway systems at the interfaces with the national network.
7982 Delays to station (systemwide) systems testing
11739 The testing and commissioning strategy may not be effectively aligned with the planned permanent and temporary power provision
11473 Inadequacy of temp power supply
1994 Signalling project delays
7829 CIS not integrated with NR On Network Stations
2829, 5381 Western works – integration
9098 Network Rail delivery / interfaces at OOC
10826 Stage 2: Infrastructure (including Depot, Heathrow ETCS, Paddington platform works) and integration with GW signalling is not available
10725 Platform heights on GW routes are above standard and CRL may not be able to satisfy level-boarding gauge clearance requirements.
5758 NR interface at Plumstead
14024 ICDs may be incomplete, or out-of-date, leading to scope gaps delaying programme
2024 IMs lose confidence in the CRL Technical Authority and set up their own independent assurance system
7459, 5090 Lack of clear safety assurance documentation from Crossrail to IM.
4547 Inefficient submission and review procedures
7981 RIR CSM does not deliver sufficient safety justification evidence to provide safety assurance
5957 Crossrail 3D design model may not be kept updated
11039 Late mobilisation of IM resources
CRL fails to provide adequate evidence as part of handover process
CRL fails to provide adequate evidence as part of handover process
6990 Failure to fulfil PDA Requirements in relation to Handover
6286 Failure to provide adequate test & commissioning evidence
Failure to demonstrate achievement of Substantial Completion Criteria as defined in PDA to Sponsors.
Failure to demonstrate achievement of Substantial Completion Criteria as defined in PDA to Sponsors.
10471 Potential entrapment issue
8115 DOO CCTV
7489, 10725 Level boarding, stepping distances & Gauge clearance – NR stations
7985 Impact of energisation on neighbouring systems - EMC
2002 Integrated Station Management Systems at LU interchange stations (Stations Ops Rooms)
CRL CIS not integrated with existing LU CIS
CRL CIS not integrated with existing LU CIS
9548 Maintenance support services, spares and specialist plant not procured on time.
Track access / maintenance assumptions not aligned to 95% PPM
Track access / maintenance assumptions not aligned to 95% PPM
Remote condition Monitoring strategy
Remote condition Monitoring strategy
3049, 6297, 1032, 10391 LUL / CRL relationships
RfL Relationship risk?RfL Relationship risk?
13395 Lack of clarity of Urban Realm/OSD design and delivery
1008 Mismatch between RfL/LU requirements and CRL design
1146 Customer Service is not perceived as being world class.
10544 Timetable not produced in time
1061 Performance Modelling inadequate (PPM target not achieved)
6471 Sponsors, TfL, IPs: Late or unexpected changes in requirements
integration with NR control centresintegration with NR control centres
10021 Train Operators do not accept NR Network Change
9290 Insufficient driver resources to support staged opening of Crossrail
9624 Timing and performance of Rolling Stock and Depot could delay opening of Crossrail
1156 Overrun on Trial Operations
Lack of Operational Readiness (including Trial Operations and Staff Training & Familiarisation)
Lack of Operational Readiness (including Trial Operations and Staff Training & Familiarisation)
13253 Transition to OperationsMartin Buck 11941 Trial operations are insufficient
to demonstrate agreed objectives.
13253 Transition into operations
Management of Asset information
11838 Lack of clarity over the approach to specification,
handover and use of Crossrail Asset Information could delay
asset acceptanceChris Sexton
Currently a Programme Risk
2033 Delivery of design (and its design assumptions) is not accepted by IMs (NR, RfL and LUL)
Maintenance plan is incorrectMaintenance plan is incorrect
RAM outputs not aligned with maintenance assumptions
RAM outputs not aligned with maintenance assumptions
Signalling contingenciesSignalling contingencies
Insufficient timetable flexibility / recovery time
Insufficient timetable flexibility / recovery time
Power / Comms resiliencePower / Comms resilience
7622 Commissioning of railway systems at the interfaces with the national network.
Paddington OSDPaddington OSD
8089 HS2 interface
Matt White
5960 HS2 interchange station at Old Oak Common causes change/delay
5960 External interfaces adversely impact the ability to deliver and subsequently the operation of the railway.
(HS2, BAA, Ilford, OOC)Howard Smith
CRL Regulatory Approval
8093 There is a risk that the NoBo and DeBo identify further non compliances which require derogations and the developement of NNTRs
10739 Rail Regulator – failure to gain regulatory consents by NR
CRL submissions to ORR not managedCRL submissions to ORR not managed
RfL Regulatory Approval
RfL submissions to ORR not managedRfL submissions to ORR not managed
Interfaces with other operators e.g. Freight, First Great
Western, Abellio Greater Anglia, Heathrow Express, DLR
Promote from project to strategic
14395 Ilford speed restrictions14395 Ilford speed restrictions
Demote from strategic to programme
5981 Provision of ATP system in Heathrow Tunnel
Header here max 30 characters2014 Effort…
Rolling Stock Programme
Stations Programme
Systemwide Programme
ONW Programme
Installation – Phase 2.1 Commissioning – Phase 2.2-2.3
NR/Railway Systems
Integration
Railway/Tunnel M&E
Systems Integration
Station Systems/LU
Systems Integration
Railway/Station Systems
Integration
System Integration – Phase 3
Station Comms – Precom
& Com
NR Systems – Precom &
Com
Railway Systems –
Precom & Com
Tunnel M&E Systems –
Precom & Com
Station Systems – Precom
& Com
LU Systems – Precom &
Com
NR Systems – Install &
Static Tests
Railway Systems – Install
& Static Tests
Tunnel M&E Systems –
Install & Static Tests
Station Comms – Install &
Static Tests
Station Systems – Install &
Static Tests
LU Systems – Install &
Static Tests
NR/Station Comms
Systems Integration
Station Comms Integration
Tunnel M&E/Station
Systems Integration
Tunnel M&E Systems
Integration
Railway/Station Comms
Systems Integration
Railway Systems
Integration
NR Systems Integration
Station Comms/Station
Systems Integration
Dynamic Testing – Phase 4 Trial Running – Phase 5
Dynamic Testing Trial Running
Station Systems
Integration
Station Comms/LU
Systems Integration
Integration Test
Complete - Milestones
Rolling Stock FitoutRolling Stock Proving GE
& GW
Rolling Stock/NR Systems
Integration (GE/GW)
Rolling Stock/Railway
Systems Integration (TT)
Area of greatest
T&C/ Integration
risk
Immediate area
of focus
Key Questions
How can we coordinate testing, commissioning
and handover activities across the Central Section?
How can we integrate Central and Outer sections?
How can we provide high levels of service from day
one?
Phased opening
2018 2017 2016 2012
1
2013
2
2014
3
2015
4 5 6
Q1
Stage 5
2019
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Stage 4 Stage 3 Stage 2 Stage 1
7 8 9 10
Stage 1: Liverpool St (mainline) to Shenfield (May 2017)
Stage 3: Paddington (Crossrail platforms) to Abbey Wood (Dec 2018)
Stage 2: Heathrow to Paddington (mainline platforms) (May 2018)
Stage 4: Paddington (Crossrail platforms) to Shenfield (May 2019)
Stage 5: Full through service (Dec 2019)
Systems Engineering
This phase of the works brings a new set of challenges
Interfaces
Organisations
Collaborative working
Programme Management
Assurance
Risk Management is changing to support the work:
Definition of common goals and RACI for Risks
Bringing teams together through facilitation and joint working
Focus on schedule and interdependencies
What is Crossrail?
Risk Management Challenges
Role of Supply chain and Insurance
Risk and Assurance
Conclusions
Risk and Assurance on Crossrail
Crossrail: ‘Three Lines of Defence’
1st Line: Delivery Teams Embedded risk management and controls
3rd Line: Independent Assurance Independent challenge and assurance Internal Audit, External Audit, Sponsors Rep CIAG (Crossrail Integrated Assurance Group)
2nd Line: Oversight Functions Set policy and procedure and provide functional oversight Quality, Finance, Controls, Technical, Risk Management
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Risk Management Assurance
Report to Joint Sponsor Team
Aggregate risk information against COST and SCHEDULE forecasts (QRA)
Inform Audit Plan with high risk areas
Engage with Sponsors Representative
Work with Insurance (Joint Code of Practice for Tunnelling Projects)
Embed risk management into the organisation: set Policy, Plan and Procedure
We measure and monitor that it is happening (ARM Metrics) and that it is working (Key Risks)
We extend this to our supply chain and measure using performance assurance
Report to ExComm
Report to Audit Cttee
Report to Board
2nd Line: Oversight Functions Set policy and procedure and provide functional oversight Quality, Finance, Controls, Technical, Risk Management
What is Crossrail?
Risk Management Challenges
Role of Supply chain and Insurance
Risk and Assurance
Conclusions
Risk and Assurance on Crossrail
Conclusions
Risk management is a key part of our overall assurance framework
It is built on good engagement with Delivery
Provides assurance that Crossrail is delivering the right outputs
on time and to budget
Informs key decisions
Crossrail is still on target to open in December 2018
Marwa ElCheikh
Senior Risk Analyst, Crossrail
Crossrail Risk Management