Maryland Climate Change CommissionScientific and Technical Working Group

Regional Assessment of Climate Change Impacts

Metropolitan Washington COG Climate Change Steering CommitteeDon Boesch

December 28, 2007

Commission on Climate Change

• Established by April 20 Executive Order by Governor O’Malley.

• 22 members, including state agency heads and 6 members of General Assembly; chaired by Secretary of the Environment Shari Wilson.

• Advise Governor and General Assembly on matters related to climate change.

• Develop a Plan of Action to address the drivers and causes of climate change, to prepare for the likely consequences and impacts of climate change to Maryland, and to establish firm benchmarks and timetables for implementing the Plan of Action.

• Supported by 3 Working Groups:

– Scientific and Technical Working Group

– Greenhouse Gas and Carbon Mitigation Working Group

– Adaptation and Response Working Group

http://www.mdclimatechange.us/

Commission on Climate Change

• Within one year present to the Governor and General Assembly the Plan of Action, including:

– Comprehensive Climate Change Impact Assessment

– Comprehensive Greenhouse Gas and Carbon Footprint Reduction Strategy

– Comprehensive Strategy for Reducing Maryland’s Climate Change Vulnerability

• Interim Report to the Governor and General Assembly December 4: an update on the development of the Plan of Action, implementation timetables and benchmarks, and preliminary recommendations, including draft legislation.

Products and Milestones

S & T Working Group Charge

• Advise the Commission, as well as other working groups, on the scientific and technical aspects of climate change;

• Investigate climate change dynamics, including current and future climate models and forecasts; and

• Evaluate the likely consequences of climate change to Maryland’s agricultural industry, forestry resources, freshwater supply, aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, and human health

Develop a Comprehensive Climate Change Impact Assessment:

Provisional website http://www.umces.edu/president/STWG/

Working Subgroups

• Climate Trends and Models

• Sea Level Rise and Coastal Storms

• Hydrology and Water Resources

• Forests and Agricultural Ecosystems and Resources

• Coastal Ecosystems and Resources

• Human Health and Urban Environments

Climate Impact Assessment

• U.S. National Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Variability and Change

• Union of Concerned Scientists regional assessments for Gulf Coast, California, Great Lakes, the Northeast

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment

www.northeastclimateimpacts.org/

Increase in mean annual temperature compared to 1961-90

Adapt the UCS Approach

Emission Scenarios

www.northeastclimateimpacts.org/

Hig

her

emis

sion

Lower emission

Using Existing Climate Models

• Use unmitigated A2 and mitigated B1 scenarios

• Use averages of numerous skillful global climate models

• Dynamic regional models not available

Heat Waves & Temperature Extremes

No. days > 90°F

No. days > 100°F

www.northeastclimateimpacts.org/

Increase in mean annual temperature compared to 1961-90

www.northeastclimateimpacts.org/

Sea-level Rise Projections

Will estimate relative sea-level rise (adjusted for subsidence)

Working Subgroup to work with Adaptation and Response Working Group to achieve consistent sea-level projections

Sea-level Rise & Coastal Vulnerability

Outline of the Maryland Assessment

• Executive Summary

• Introduction to Climate Change

• Data, Models and Assessment

• Recent and Future Climate Changes in Maryland

• Consequences

– Coastal zone

– Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems

– Water resources

– Agriculture, forestry, fisheries

– Human health

• Implications for Mitigation and Adaptation

Toward a Regional Assessment

• Maryland Climate Impacts Assessment will be just a starting point

• Regional community of interests: Chesapeake Bay, Potomac Basin, Greater Washington

• Expand the circle of expertise: universities, Federal laboratories and employees, NGOs, state and local governments, industry

• Envision an international model for scientifically informed assessment, mitigation and adaptation