mas airlines investment outlook 2012
TRANSCRIPT
Malaysia Airlines Investment
Outlook
Agenda
• COMPANY BACKGROUND
• CURRENT ISSUES
• STATISTICS/CHARTS
• CRITICAL ANALYSIS
• FUTURE OUTLOOK
• SUMMARY
COMPANY BACKGROUND
• Founded as Malaysia Airways Ltd. (MAL) in 1947.
• Malaysian Airline Systems (MAS) was established in October 1972, servicing 34 domestics routes and six international destinations
• By the end of 1987, MAS has spur growth as an international carrier, offering 34 domestic routes and 27 international destinations.
CURRENT ISSUES
• Current market position
• RM 2.5 billion loss for 2011
• Exceed the loss predictions of 15 Bloomberg analyst the 1.21 billion.
• Expected further loss for 2012 (strive for breakeven)
4.88
3.02
2.772.09
1.31
Malaysia Airlines 5-years Share Price
Singapore Airlines5-year Share Price
Air Asia5-year Share Price
World Airlines Net Profit
Malaysia Airlines 5-years Financial Performance
Malaysia AirlinesRevenue Contribution
Issues Contributing to MAS’s current operating losses
European Economic Crisis
• Fuel costs represents the largest portion of operating costs.
Rising Fuel Prices
Fuel Price Trends
Financial Analysis
• FV Calculations
MAS discount rate = -15%
InterestPV Price
(1/1/2007)PV lot (1000)
Time Period (n) FV Formula FV
0% 4.68 4680 5 FV = PV*(1+r)^n
46803% 4.68 4680 5 5425.47% 4.68 4680 5 6563.9
MAS 4.68 4680 5 2090
Analysis
Analysis
• Market Cap
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Current0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Total
Total
Market Capitalization 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Current
4.88 3.02 2.77 2.09 1.31 1.363342.15 16,309.6910,093.29 9,257.76 6,985.09 4,378.22 4,545.32
Analysis
analysisAnalysis
analysis
Growth rate, g g = Retention ratio x Return on retained earnings
Growth Rate, g
(in RM'000) 2010 2009 2008 2007
Revenue 13,587,610 11,605,511 15,570,141 15,232,741
Profit/(Loss) before tax 282,036 491,832 290,881 882,333
Profit/(Loss) after tax 237,346 522,948 217,795 852,743
Retained earning 3,395,266 698,021 4,010,715 3,945,949
Retention Ratio 24.99 6.01 25.76 25.90
Return on Retained Earning (ROE)
0.07 0.75 0.05 0.22
Dividend Payout - - - 2.50
Price per share as at 31 Dec 2.77 3.02 4.88 3.89
Earning Per Share (EPS) 7.2 25.3 14.6 58.0
P/E Ratio 0.38 0.12 0.33 0.07
Growth Rate 1.75 4.51 1.40 5.60
Discount rate, RR = D1 + g P0
D1 = Dividend payout as at 31 Dec 2007P0 = Price per share as at 31 Dec 2007g = Growth rate
R = 2.5 + 5.6 = 6.24 3.89
Discount Rate, r
analysis
At 2007, the dividend payout is RM2.50 and the P0 (as at 31 December 2007) is RM 3.89, r = 6.24
No Growth from 2008 - 2011
Is there a growth
opportunity in MAS?
analysis
NPVGO = P – EPS / r
P (as at 31 December 2007) = RM 3.89 Earning Per Share (2007) = RM 58.00r = 6.24
NPVGO = P – EPS / R = 3.89 – (58 / 6.24) = - 5.4
Based on Year 2007, there is negative growth opportunity.
1. Joint venture with Air Asia to reduce operational cost
2. Revenue/ Yield Improvement(i) Suspending unprofitable routes
– Dubai, Cape Town, Johannesburg(ii) Spinning off ancillary
businesses such as cargo and ground cargo
(iii) Reduction of headcount
Turnaround Plan 2011
Speculation:• Positive: MAS needs talent, AA investment
growth and leveraging resources. • Negative: Under Government review,
Facing Union protests, Khazanah to buyback?
Malaysia Airlines AirasiaPercent Shares Swapped 20% 10%
Share Price at Swap 1.60 3.95Total Shares Outstanding 3,342.15 mil 2,778.32 mil
Market Cap at Swap 5347.44 mil 10974.36 milValue of Shares Swapped 1069.49 mil 1097.44 mil
Share Swap
• 6 Airbus A380 Super Jumbo purchase
• Add MYR 9.5 billion CAPEX expenditure • 2012 – MYR 6 billion• 2013 – MYR 3.5 billion
• Speculation: Increasing costs, can MAS sustain this?
CAPEX
Analyst Projection • Negative on the stock with more than 60%
placing a “sell” call• Reduce the target price on stock to RM1.04• Doubts on the turnaround plan
Speculation• Government bailout?• Funding of CAPEX?
Summary