master powerpoint slides - meat importers council of america · 2017-10-25 · 1970 1972 1974 1976...
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Projections
Michael Finucan, General Manager International Markets
Rain fall
Cattle Herd – Significant decline following the drought that ended in 2015 - now rebuilding
Source: ABS, MLA estimates
25.0
25.5
26.0
26.5
27.0
27.5
28.0
28.5
29.0
29.5
30.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
mill
ion
he
ad
Annual adult cattle slaughter
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017f 2019f 2021f
mill
ion
he
ad
Source: ABS, MLA estimates
Average carcase weights
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
Kg
/he
ad
Source: ABS
National beef production
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.81
97
0
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
cwt
Beef and veal production
Source: ABS, MLA estimates
Australian beef exports
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
‘00
0 t
on
ne
s sw
t
Forecast
Frozen (LHS)
Chilled (LHS)
% Chilled (RHS)
Source: DAWR
Australian sheep flock
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Mill
ion
he
ad
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
Annual sheep slaughter – 6 million
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Mill
ion
he
ad
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
Annual lamb slaughter
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
Mill
ion
he
ad
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
Australian lamb production
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Kg
/he
ad
‘00
0 t
on
ne
s cw
t
Production (LHS) Carcase weight (RHS)
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
492,800 tonnes (swt) -2%
Australian lamb exports
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
‘00
0 t
on
ne
s sw
t
Forecast
Other
Middle East
US
China
Source: DAWR