masterclass dublin jan 2014
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Presentation given by Dan Slagen, SVP of Marketing for Nanigans at the Masterclass Conference in January 2014. The conference featured speakers from Google, Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter and more!TRANSCRIPT
Predictive Lifetime Value
Predictive Lifetime Value for Performance Marketing at Scale
Masterclass Tour Dublin 2014
Predictive Lifetime Value
Thank you
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Predictive Lifetime Value
240+ features in 2013
Predictive Lifetime Value
$7 CPA $5 CPA
$45 $79
Kerry Diana
Predictive Lifetime Value
Customers?(every marketing team’s worst nightmare)
Predictive Lifetime Value
6 Week Purchase Cycle
Kerry Diana
Predictive Lifetime Value
The marketing multiplier effect
• Direct marketing
• Email marketing
• Content marketing
• TV campaigns
• Social engagement
• Loyalty programs & re-marketing
Predictive Lifetime Value
Media investment = lifetime value
Predictive Lifetime Value
Lifetime ROI vs. CPA – 6X higher ROI
Predictive Lifetime Value
Review of yesterday
• Think about lead gen
• Paid products on the rise• 230M users
• 24M users in UK, 20M on mobile• 6M users in Netherlands, 4.8 on mobile• Ad accuracy norm is 27%, 91% on FB
• 33% of people find product via social, 50% from search• 300M on G+, 540M on Google products• 2.4B global internet users
• 5x more expensive to acquire customers than retain• 23% of Euro marketers sole focus is targeting the right audience
Predictive Lifetime Value
Looking for performance at scale.
Predictive Lifetime Value
Predictive Lifetime Value
State of
Facebook.
Predictive Lifetime Value
5.5M in 2005
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Predictive Lifetime Value
We need to generate
$1M in handbag sales by end of
quarter
Predictive Lifetime Value
Predictive Lifetime Value
Predictive Lifetime Value
100M During Primetime Every Night
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Predictive Lifetime Value
$4M for 30 Seconds
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Predictive Lifetime Value
Results?
Predictive Lifetime Value
2013 retail benchmark report.
Highlights:
- 2.5X Increase in CTR
- 36% Increase in ROI
- 45% increase in CPMs
- 3x more tracking mobile revenue
- 57% of desktop is News Feed
Predictive Lifetime Value
• 10X greater purchase rates
• 2X greater LTV vs. any other channel
• 50% greater LTV using lookalikes
• 12M members from FB
“We’re gaining higher LTV via FB than we are from anywhere else. Right now,
FB is our most effective marketing channel.” – Tom Beverly, Fab VP Marketing
“I won’t make a move on FB unless I speak with Nanigans. I consider them an
extension of my engineering team.” – Blake Chandlee, Facebook VP
Brand case study
Predictive Lifetime Value
$80k - $200k
Agency case study
Predictive Lifetime Value
Best way to approach Facebook?
Predictive Lifetime Value
Predictive Lifetime Value
Goals? Market Size? Expectations?
Predictive Lifetime Value
Creative
Targeting
Optimization
Predictive Lifetime Value
Predictive Lifetime Value
Predictive Lifetime Value
Predictive Lifetime Value
Nothing else: Self identifiable and frictionless ads
Predictive Lifetime Value
Aesthetics (interest)
Language (consideration)
Relevancy (decision)
Predictive Lifetime Value
Over a googol targeting combinations
Aesthetics (interest)
250%
Predictive Lifetime Value
- Disruptive
- “Attention”
- Self identification
Have fun
Predictive Lifetime Value
Over a googol targeting combinations
Language (consideration)
75%
Predictive Lifetime Value
Over a googol targeting combinations
Relevance (decision)
40%
Predictive Lifetime Value
Creative
Targeting
Optimization
Predictive Lifetime Value
How many targeting combinations are there on Facebook?
Predictive Lifetime Value
Over a googol targeting combinations on Facebook
10,000,000,000000,000,000,000,000000,000,000,000,000000,000,000,000,000000,000,000,000,000000,000,000,000,000000,000,000,000,000
Predictive Lifetime Value
Unprecedented targeting
Device
• Type• OS version• Wi-fi connectivity
Behavior
• Actions taken with sites and apps
• Offline purchase behavior
CRM
• CRM…
Demographics
• Age• Gender• Language• Location
Affinities
• Likes• Interests• Conversations
Social
• Relationship status• Education level,
college, major• Employer, position
Predictive Lifetime Value
CRM targeting
CRMDatabase
FB Profile Match
Targetable Audience
Predictive Lifetime Value
Interest targeting scales campaign
None Partner Categories
Lookalike Broad Custom Audiences
Interest Targeting
FBX0
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
Impressions vs. Purchase Rate by Targeting Type
Purchase Rate
Impressions
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Creative
Targeting
Optimization (60% of employees)
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Maturity curves
Affinity modeling
Cohort analysis
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Early ROI signals via maturity curves
Hours from Click
RO
I
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 900%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
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Expand to lookalikes via affinity modeling
High affinity with core customers
Low affinity with core customers
Expand into the highest quality segments
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Track cohorts – lifetime behavior
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Track cohorts – identify opportunity
Time Period ROI Increase
Black Friday vs. prior Friday + 36%
London vs. Paris + 24%
35-44 age demo vs. 45-54 + 9%
Cyber Monday vs. prior Monday + 54%
Re-targeting implementation + 28%
Predictive Lifetime Value
Go big – Scale with confidence
Predictive Lifetime Value
Remarket39% more customers. 89% increase in revenue per customer
Predictive Lifetime Value
Automation – RTB, programmatically bid, enhance and refresh
Save time with automated targeting, creative testing, and conversion-based algorithms
Predictive Lifetime Value
That’s all there is to it…
Closing points
Predictive Lifetime Value
State of digital advertising
• Digital 25% of marketing
• Paid search 24%; at point of diminishing return
• Display represents 41%
• 290B impressions on thousands of sites; 54% not visible
• Social less than 15%
• Mobile less than 15%
Predictive Lifetime Value
Social & mobile
Predictive Lifetime Value
Why Aren’t We More Excited About Digital
Advertising?
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Predictive Lifetime Value
Technology is not
Technology.
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More is not
More.
Predictive Lifetime Value
Managed service deflates
Value.
Predictive Lifetime Value
Predictive lifetime value for performance marketing at scale.
Predictive Lifetime Value
Additional case studies on nanigans.com• Interest targeting scales delivery 3000%• Pixeling reduces cost per purchase by 8x• 4x ROI with dynamic creative• 197% higher ROI w/FBX News Feed• 89% sales increase using FBX• 55% sales increase with photo posts• 12x member acquisition • 235k fans in 3 days• 136% ROI increase in 4 days