masterpresentation johannesburg 16feb · us house price index, nominal, s&p case shiller 100...
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Economic UpdateKevin Lings
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
%q/q, 3-year moving average
US Real GDP Growth – 3 Year Moving Average
5
20
40
60
80
100
120
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Index
US Consumer Confidence
6
US Core Retail Sales (excluding vehicles and fuel)
-7-6-5-4-3-2-10123456789
10
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16%y/y
7
US house price index, nominal, S&P Case Shiller
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
+40%
-33%
US House Prices – Steady Growth at Around 5% a Year
8
05000
100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000550006000065000700007500080000850009000095000
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
$ Billion
US Households – Net Worth Has Risen By $35 Trillion Since Recession Ended
9
128
130
132
134
136
138
140
142
144
146
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Million
Employment has risen by 15.8 million since recession ended
United States Employment
10
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015Index, 12-month moving average
Age group 35 to 49
US Employment: Age Group 35 To 49
-4 million jobs
-16-14-12-10
-8-6-4-202468
10
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016%y/y
US Industrial Production
12
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
85 90 95 00 05 10 15Million
US Manufacturing Employment
13
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016%y/y
US Monthly Growth in Exports
14
-22-20-18-16-14-12-10
-8-6-4-202468
101214
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016%q/q, 4-quarter moving average
US Real Fixed Investment Spending
15
Increased trade protection
Trump Economics Could Boost the Economy
Tax cuts,Including corporate
De-regulationIncl. energy &
finance
Increased infrastructural development
16
Trump Policies Could Hinder The Economy
Constitutional crisis over immigration
Trade wars (China, Mexico, Germany)
Neglect of the environment
Irrational military action
17
80828486889092949698
100102104106108
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Index
US Small Business Confidence Index (NFIB)
18
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
80828486889092949698
100102104106108
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015%y/y (lagged 1 quarter)Index
Correlation = 0.71
Small business confidence (lhs)GDP (rhs)
US Small Business Confidence Index (NFIB) vs. GDP
19
South Africa
South Africa Real GDP Growth Year-on-Year
-3-2-1012345678
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
%y/y
21
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016Confidence Index
Consumer confidence
SA Consumer Confidence
22
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016Index
SA Business Confidence (BER)
23
-7-6-5-4-3-2-1012345
2014
2015
2016
%q/q, %q/q, 4-quarter moving average annualised
Growth In Fixed Investment Spending By Private Sector
24
25
South Africa Private Sector Fixed Investment
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016Index, constant prices -9.5% decline in fixed investment since 2013,
but cash level has risen by 35%
South Africa Corporate Deposits
250270290310330350370390410430450470490510530550570590610630650670690710730750770
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016R billion
26
29,513,4
-14,5
-66,4
16,6 12,0
-16,3
24,8
-14,0 -11,6-23,0
-75-65-55-45-35-25-15
-55
15253545
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17Rbn, relative to the original budget and not the MTBPS
Government Budget Revenue Over-Runs/Under-Collection
27
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
2200000
2400000
2600000
2800000
3000000
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total Maize: Area Planted 2010 - 2017Ha
SA Growth In Exports (Dollars)
-30-25-20-15-10
-505
1015202530354045
11 12 13 14 15 16
%y/y
29
South Africa Food Cereal Inflation
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2013 2014 2015 2016
% y/y
30
South Africa Food Inflation Forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% y/y
31
South Africa Headline CPI Forecast
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017% y/y
32
Do you think your country is moving in the right direction?
WorldChina
Saudi ArabiaIndia
RussiaArgentina
CanadaPeru
AustraliaJapan
TurkeyGreat Britain
IsraelUS
GermanyBelgiumPolandSpain
SwedenHungary
ItalyBrazil
South AfricaSouth Korea
FranceMexico
63%90%
80%76%
58%56%
54%50%
45%43%
39%37%36%
35%32%29%28%
22%22%
19%18%17%
14%13%
12%4%
10%20%
24%42%
44%46%
50%55%57%
61%63%64%
65%68%
71%71%
78%78%
81%82%83%
86%87%88%
96%
37%