matthew sardi and jeffrey tongue noaa/nws, new york, ny 4 november 2010
DESCRIPTION
Predictability of High Impact Weather during the Cool Season over the Eastern U.S: CSTAR Operational Aspects. Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010. Outline. Who/Why WFO Goals Activities to Date: Training Initiatives Visualization Software. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Predictability of High Impact Weather during the Cool Season over the Eastern U.S:
CSTAR Operational Aspects
Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey TongueNOAA/NWS, New York, NY
4 November 2010
![Page 2: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outline
• Who/Why
• WFO Goals
• Activities to Date:– Training Initiatives– Visualization Software
![Page 3: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Who in NOAA• WFO’s– New York– Mt Holly– State College– Pittsburgh
• NCEP– EMC– HPC– OPC
• NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
![Page 4: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Motivation
• Prediction of mesoscale phenomenon within extratropical storms remains a major challenge.
![Page 5: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Goal for the WFO
• Improvement in operational forecaster understanding of uncertainty/predictability.
• Improve communication of uncertainties to users/customers.
![Page 6: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Specifics
• Upton, NY (KOKX): – Improved understanding of cyclone evolution and
precipitation bands– Ensemble Forecast Systems (EFS) application to Aviation
• Low-level winds• Precipitation type• Snowfall rate
– Mentors to the SBU students• 1 SCEP• 1 STEP• 4 Volunteers
![Page 7: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Specifics (cont)• WFO Philadelphia, PA (KPHI):
– Storm surge– Coastal flooding
• State College, PA (KCTP): – Visualization Software– Training– Data management
• WFO Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT): – Training– Visualization– Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE) Applications
![Page 8: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Specifics (cont)
• Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC): – Precipitation banding.– Cyclone track verification for the winter weather desk, medium
range forecast products, as well as the snowfall and QPF products.
– HPC will host visiting forecasters, scientists, and project students.
• Ocean Prediction Center (OPC): – EFS application to cyclone track and intensity.– East Coast Marine impacts - high winds and waves.
![Page 9: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Specifics (cont)• Environmental Modeling Center (EMC):
– EFS sensitivities related to the Weather Storms Reconnaissance Program
– Impacts of wave packets – Training of forecasters:
• Impact of targeted observations • SREF system
– Cyclone verification
• Environmental System Research Laboratory (ESRL): – EFS sensitivities related to the Weather Reconnaissance Program– Training on the impact of targeted observations on predictability.
![Page 10: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Current CSTAR Training Initiatives
• Wave Packets• Targeted Observations• ALPS
![Page 11: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Wave Packets
![Page 12: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Target Observations
![Page 13: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Advanced Linux Prototype System(ALPS)
• Running on a “non-baseline” AWIPS Workstation.
• Looks and Feels like D2D • Designed for probabilistic forecasting• Visualizing Ensemble Data– Weighting Ensemble Members– Generating Probabilistic Grids– Etc
![Page 15: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
ALPS
![Page 16: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
New Projections
![Page 17: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Statistical Functionality
![Page 18: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
A Brief Example
• The following are all 168 HR (7 Day) Forecasts from last Thursday
• Valid at 8 AM this Morning – Thursday, Nov 4th
![Page 19: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
GEFS Members + ECMWF
![Page 20: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
ECMWF
![Page 21: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
GEFS Mean
![Page 22: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
GEFS Mean + ECMWF = MEAN
![Page 23: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Example Statistics - 850 Temperatures
![Page 24: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
850 Temperatures - cont
![Page 25: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
How do I get ALPS ?
• Visit the SBU CSTAR Page:
• http://dendrite.somas.stonybrook.edu/CSTAR/cstar.html
![Page 26: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
ALPS GFE - Future
• Deployment of Probabilistic Products• Aviation Specific Examples– Wind Speed– Wind Direction– Gusts (probability of being reported)
• No yet Loaded at OKX
![Page 27: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Example Probabilistic Products
![Page 28: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Example Probabilistic Products
![Page 29: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
BUFKIT 10
• SREF (21 Members)• WDTB WRF Ensemble– Resolution: 24 KM– Frequency: 00Z and 12Z– Members: 8 ensemble members (23) x 2
Initializations• NMM/ARW• NAM/GFS• KF/BMJ
![Page 30: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
![Page 31: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Boundary Layer Winds - Aviation
![Page 32: Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS, New York, NY 4 November 2010](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062315/568161f7550346895dd224dd/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Questions?
• CSTAR E-Mail List– Send Jeff Waldstreicher an e-mail
• CSTAR WEB PAGE:– http://dendrite.somas.stonybrook.edu/CSTAR/cstar.html