matthew tyler - financial assurance technical memo on polymet sdeis

7/22/2019 Matthew Tyler - Financial Assurance Technical Memo on PolyMet SDEIS

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TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM F A F

B E A F

& C ' DE

P B: M

P C F

PO BO 511 F, MN, 55603.

M 12, 2014

1.0

M M . I C F F,M L C. I M.

P M '

,

.

1.1

I , ,

. I ' E F

C B P C 2010. M

, , , I E A

2008.

I 8 , , . M

.

A, I F C L C J 2011. I

, I , , $600,000

. I L C' C P P (CPP). CPP

,

F ' F D (FD) .

M , I L C

$3,000,000 F E

M A (FEMA).


2/20

2

2.0 F

I NM P DEI, PM M I.

. DEI ,

500 200 , DEI

. I , " ." (DEI D 2013, . E11,

E24, 57).

, . C

, .

,

M

.

L F (LF),

F, ,

. A ,

,

.

. ,

. I ,

.

,

. ,

,

.

I L F

500 . H,

:

",

.

155 .

237 .

500

."( C A C E A, PM

DEI A C, . 152)


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3

3.0 B F

L F

,

(O&M) . F,

O&M O&M .

M, :

F() = F()+ F()* () C()+ I()*C() = F() * (1 + ()) C()* (1+ I()) (EQ 1)

F()

F() 1

C() PM' O&M

C(1)

PM' O&M 1

() (.. 7%)

I() (.. 2%)

F , (F0) $100 , O&M (C0) $5

, (I1) 2%, (1) 7%,

F ( ) :

F1= F(0) * (1 + (1)) C(0)* (1+ I(1)) = $100 * (1 + 0.07) $5 * (1 + 0.02) = $101.9

A 2,

:

F2= F() * (1 + (2)) C(1)* (1+ I(2)) = $101.9 * (1 + 0.07) $5.1 * (1 + 0.02) = $103.83

N F . F

,

. H,

,

, .

D , I .

3.1 F

I F 500

, DEI.

500

O&M .

' O&M .


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4

F O&M ,

50,000 . E

O&M , E 1 500

, .

4 5. , .

100,000 .

( C 2013)

A C.

4.0 E E F

I L F

M B

I (MBI). MBI

M. O

,

L F P

F E F. B

(MBI 2013). H, ,

P F

.

P F

, , 50%

. (MBI 2013). I , P

F L

F,

.

A P

F 1987 2013

M

. MBI

19982013 (MBI 2013). P

F 19871997

N B

(1998).

1:

F 19872013

1987 6.9% 2001 2.6%

1988 7.2% 2002 6.2%

1989 16.1% 2003 6.3%

1990 6.3% 2004 10.2%

1991 10.3% 2005 6.5%

1992 15.1% 2006 4.8%

1993 6.1% 2007 13.4%

1994 3.1% 2008 3.6%

1995 14% 2009 9.3%

1996 5.5% 2010 12.3%

1997 8.2% 2011 17%

1998 17.8% 2012 6.4%

1999 14% 2013 10.8%

2000 6.1%

M 7.278%

D 7.136%


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5

1 F 1,

. A 7.3%,

.

5.0 E E C

C

P I (CPI), B L

. H,

CPI. I

P P I

(PPI) B L

. PPI "

"

. ( BL, 2014).

A PPI

. H,

PPI " "

( ID PC213114213114) 19852013

. A

A '

.

2 F 2, .

1.75%. I,

1, 3.929.

.

6.0 F D

I , (..

G ) . 1900,

B

(1973) M (1973).

2: A

19862013

1986 0.10% 2000 9.32%

1987 0.50% 2001 7.89%

1988 1.89% 2002 1.45%

1989 4.59% 2003 0.17%

1990 1.31% 2004 0.78%

19910.09%

200511.03%1992 0.09% 2006 4.31%

1993 2.21% 2007 2.14%

1994 0.09% 2008 6.86%

1995 0.09% 2009 1.89%

1996 0.99% 2010 0%

1997 3.82% 2011 4.38%

1998 4.62% 2012 6.48%

1999 1.64% 2013 4.84%

M 1.753%

D 3.929%


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6

, ,

.

A (..

)

(F 3). A

(F 4).

.

H,

(.. )

, F 3.

.

.

1960 (M 1962, 1963,1967). I 2008

,

,

(.. F 2009, H &

P. 2009).

I , (

) M (1967) F (2009). ,

.

.

C,

. P ,

. ,

. .


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7

7.0 A & C

A NM DEI $3.5$6

(O&M) (DEI, . 3138),

. NM ,

, NM O&M .

7.1 DE C

PM

: , . A

DEI ,

M D P.

M

" 600 . 300 ."

( 2013 168).

P

" 2000

, 3500 ." ( 2013, . 112)

40,

. ,

.

A ,

. ,

DEI.

N,

. F

.

7.2 C E

. C, L .

4000 A 1

P C. I B E M

M NPDE M N P II (B 2011).


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8

. A

, ,

, .

600 C 1E

L B C (B 2013). B E C E

PM 2010 MPCA C E. A

, NM .

: (1)

, (2) (OP), (3)

(ICCP) .

. A ,

.

3 O&M

. C O&M B(2011). I , O&M ,

.

B (2011) B (2013) A A & B.

3 . AO&M (AA 2007). F

,

, , .

,

, , .

3: C E

E A.

& F &

&

E C C C ($) % C C ($) % C C ($)

B 2013 E +C 600 $19,729,392 $1,492,573 7.57% $1,435,636 7.28% $56,939

B 2013

EP +

C 600 $23,969,992 $1,579,447 6.59% $1,509,698 6.30% $69,750

B 2013

ICCP + O

+C 600 $14,817,750 $1,901,833 12.83% $1,346,820 9.09% $555,014

M $1,657,951

B 2011 A #1 4000 $40,462,964 $5,383,000 13.30% $4,592,000 11.35% $791,000

B 2011 A #2 4000 $39,802,164 $4,613,000 11.59% $3,920,000 9.85% $693,000

B 2011 A #3 4000 $40,628,164 $5,215,000 12.84% $4,466,000 10.99% $749,000

M $5,070,333


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N

NM DEI.

NM . ,

.

7.3 A C E DE

B(2011)

NM ( ) ,

B (2013) NM

. , NM

O&M O&M B (2011) O&M

B (2013).

A, O&M NM P ( )

B (2013) .

G , AA (2007)

:

C= C* (/ )0.80

(EQ 2)

: C=

C=

= ,

=

.

O&M :

= C* + (/ ) * C (EQ 3)

= O&M

= O&M C= O&M .

C, ,,

O&M ,

(..

). I , O&M

. I ,


10/20


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11

8.0 F

H NM O&M

,

3.

6. F 5 500 O&M 6.

6: E B

F A 500

& A C

& C F A

E & > 0.95* > 0.99*

L $6,105,573 $10,684,753 500 $333,000,000 $404,000,000

M $7,788,515 $13,629,901 500 $423,000,000 $513,000,000

H $10,660,735 $18,656,286 500 $579,000,000 $694,000,000

* P , (.. 95% 99%)


12/20

12

9.0 C

PM

DEI

L . . I

O&M $6.1 $10.6 .

L , NM

P, .

L F

500 $333 , $500 .

L F $50$200

DEI (DEI, . 3138). DEI

, ,

.

N ,

$383$700 .

10.0

DEI ,

.

B , NM FEI

.

NM FEI

.

D 4060% , FEI .

F .

F .


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13

A A (AA), 2007. O N, 2

., M P M46.

B E C. 2011. 1

. .P D, I.,M M, LLC. J 2011.

B E C. 2013. . 026

. P C E LLC, PM M I. J 2013.

B, F M . 1973. P O C L.

J P E. 81(3):637654.

F, J C. 2009. A D E. P.D.

. D: I.

H, M, C P. 2009. F E, F D.

E C 2009, 34043435

M, B. B. 1962. . NC87, IBM

.

M, B. B. 1963. C P, C 15, C

(1964), . 307332. M.I.. P.

M, B. B. 1967. , , ,

. J B 40, 393413.

M, C. 1973. . B J E

M . 4(1):141183.M B I (MBI). 2013. A 2013. M

B I. . P, MN. ://....

N, J B. 1998. L: A P E .

M O L A. #9805. . P, MN.

PM M (PM). 2013. , 1

, 12. M 8, 2013.

PM M (PM). 2013. , 2

, . M 1, 2013.

C (2013). : A . F C, , A. IBN 3900051070. ://../.


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A A: 2325 B (2013)


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A B: 3.13.3 B (2011)


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A C: C

F

(A)

# I

matthew tyler - financial assurance technical memo on polymet sdeis

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