maximizing results from a high-efficiency furnace program jacqueline berger, apprise elliott gold,...
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Maximizing Results from aHigh-Efficiency Furnace Program
Jacqueline Berger, APPRISEElliott Gold, PGWJanuary 28, 2014
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Presentation Outline
• PGW Residential Heating Equipment Rebate Program (RHER)• Research Questions• Market Study• Impact Analysis• Summary
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PGW’s Residential Heating Equipment Rebate Program
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RHER Goals
• Promote selection of premium efficiency residential models.• Increase customer’s awareness of energy efficiency
opportunities.• Strengthen PGW’s relationship with customers as a partner in
energy efficiency.• Encourage market actors to provide and promote high efficiency
options.• Align incentives with other programs.• Aid in market transformation towards the highest-efficiency
options.
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RHER Process• Educate customers about RHER.
– CSP, PGW, equipment dealers, and contractor marketing.• Provide information about program eligibility and rebates to customers.
– Includes a marketing document and a program application.• Customers work with contractors and retailers to purchase and install eligible
equipment. • Customers complete the rebate application.
– Proof of purchase required.– Contractor certification that the measure was installed.
• The CSP processes the application– Checks customer and measure eligibility. – Mails a Visa gift card (payments<$500) or check (payments>$500) to the
customer if approved. – Notifies customer if it is not eligible, and the reason for rejection.
• Three percent of rebates receive a post-installation inspection.
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RHER Rebates
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Measure Original Rebate
Revised Rebate
Natural Gas Furnace 94% AFUE $250 $500
Natural Gas Furnace 94% AFUE, ECM Fan $250 $500
Natural Gas Water Boiler 94% AFUE (w/electronic ignition) $1,000 $2,000
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Research Questions
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Questions
• What is the market for high-efficiency equipment?• How can PGW best market the program?• What are the incremental costs of high-efficiency furnaces and
boilers?• Have rebates increased penetration of high-efficiency
equipment?• What are the barriers to increased participation?• What are the savings from the installation of high efficiency
furnaces and boilers?
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Market Study
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Participating Contractor Sample
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Contractors Contractors with 2 or more rebates 7/2012 – 2/2013 38Interview Completed 20No Response 9Refused 6Wrong Number 2Language Barrier 1
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Maximizing Contractor Response
• Advance letters were sent to the contractors using priority mail.• The advance letters informed the contractors about the purpose of
the survey and a $100 incentive that would be provided if they completed the survey.
• A toll-free number was provided for contractors to call in to complete the survey.
• Up to 17 calls were made to contractors over a 4-week period.• Messages were left three to six times for the contractors.• 20-30 minute telephone interviews were conducted • Interviews were completed between February 19, 2013 and March
18, 2013.
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Participating Customer Sample
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Furnace Rebate
Boiler Rebate Total
Check Issue Date Between 10/1/12 and 12/31/12 77 60 137
Phone Number or Email Address in File 67 57 124Sample Selected 30 29 59Interview Completed 17 15 32No Response 9 3 12Refused 1 8 9No Phone Number 3 3 6
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Maximizing Participant Response
• Advance letters were sent to the participants. Emails were also sent to the seven participants who did not have a phone number in the file and whose phone number could not be found in our look-up.
• The advance letters and emails informed the participants about the purpose of the survey and provided a toll-free number for participants to call in to complete the survey.
• Up to nine calls were made to participants over a 2-week period.• Messages were left up to four times for the participants.• 5-20 minute telephone interviews were conducted • Interviews were completed between March 7, 2013 and March 21, 2013.• One interview was completed with a furnace rebate recipient who had no phone
number available, but who responded to our email with her phone number.
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How should PGW focus their marketing efforts?
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Contractor Information Sources
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How Contractor First Learned about RHER # Contractors Supplier 8Internet 3PGW Mailing 3PGW Email 2Customer 1City Displayed Brochure 1Home Show 1Trade Group 1Total 20
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Customer Information Sources
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RHER Information Source Furnace Rebate
Boiler Rebate Total
Contractor 10 5 15PGW Website 2 3 5PGW Bill Insert 2 2 4PGW Mailing 1 1 2Realtor 1 0 1PA EnergyWorks Program 1 0 1News Report 0 1 1Family 0 1 1Contractor’s Mailing 0 1 1Don’t Know 0 1 1Total 17 15 32
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First Customer Information Sources
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Contractor Offered Information or Participant Asked about Rebate
Furnace Rebate
Boiler Rebate Total
Heard from Contractor 10 5 15Contractor Offered Information 3 2 5Asked Contractor About Rebate 1 6 7Didn’t Discuss with Contractor 2 1 3Don’t know/ No answer 1 1 2Total 17 15 32
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How large is the market for high-efficiency furnaces and boilers in
Philadelphia?
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Annual HVAC InstallationsIn Philadelphia Past Year
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Installations in Philadelphia in the Past Year
# Contractors Gas Furnace Gas Boiler
Existing Homes
New Homes
Existing Homes
New Homes
0 0 10 0 17<25 9 9 14 325-49 4 0 3 050-99 4 1 1 0100-199 1 0 1 0≥500 1 0 0 0Don’t Know 1 0 0 0Total 20 20 20 20
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High Efficiency Penetration
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Percent of 2012 Installations that were High Efficiency
# Contractors
Gas Furnace Gas Boiler
<10% 2 210% - 24% 6 525% - 49% 2 350% - 74% 4 375% - 99% 4 5100% 1 1Don’t Know 1 1Total 20 20
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Do contractors know how to educate customers and market high efficiency
furnaces and boilers?
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Contractor ReportWhen Information Provided
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Situations When Contractor Educates Customer about High Efficiency Option # Contractors
Always 15Majority of the Time 3When it Works in the Home 2Total 20
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Contractor ReportFrequency Information Provided
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Percent of Jobs where Contractor Educates Customer about High Efficiency Option
# Contractors
100% 1690%-99% 280%-89% 150% 1Total 20
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Contractor ReportInformation Provided to Customers
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Information Provided to Customers About Gas Usage and High Efficiency Equipment
# Contractors Gas Furnaces
# Contractors Gas Boilers
AFUE Rating or Savings Estimate 9 7PGW Website Information/Savings Calculation 5 7Percent Savings/Cost Comparison 5 6Manufacturer Literature and Forecasted Savings 3 4Does Not Mention or Promise Savings 3 3Environmental Benefit 1 1Not much information 1 1
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Customer ReportInformation Provided by Contractor
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Information Contractor Provided about Gas Usage and Cost Compared to Other Options
Furnace Rebate
Boiler Rebate Total
Did Not Discuss Much 4 8 12Gas Savings, But not Specific Amount 7 4 11Approximate Percent or Dollar Savings 3 2 5Savings from Switching from Oil to Gas 1 2 3AFUE Percentage Differences 2 0 2Savings Based on Actual Usage 1 0 1
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Is the program increasing the frequency of high efficiency sales?
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Contractor ReportHigh Efficiency Sales Change
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High Efficiency Sales Comparison to Before Rebates
# Contractors
Gas Furnace Gas Boiler
Much Increased 5 5Increased 6 7Somewhat Increased 3 3No Change 5 4Don’t Know 1 1Total 20 20
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Contractor ReportRole of Rebate in Sales Presentation
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Role of PGW Rebate in Sales Presentation # Contractors Big Role / Very Important 14Helps in Sale 3Depends on Customer 1Small Role 1None 1Total 20
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Contractor ReportRebate Influence on Sales
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Extent to Which High Efficiency Sales are Due to PGW’s Rebates # Contractors
Extremely Important (100%) 6Very Important (60%-80%) 3Important (25%-50%) 5Somewhat Important (15%-25%) 2Not Important (<10%) 3Total 20
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Customer ReportRebate Importance
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Importance of PGW Rebate in Decision to Purchase High Efficiency
Furnace Rebate
Boiler Rebate Total
Very Important 5 12 17Important 2 2 4Helpful 3 0 3Not Very Important 3 0 3Not At All Important 4 1 5Total 17 15 32
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Customer ReportOther Purchase Factors
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Factors that Influenced Decision to Purchase High Efficiency
Furnace Rebate
Boiler Rebate Total
Monthly Costs / Gas Savings 11 11 22Environmental Concerns 4 3 7Installation Issues/Venting/Size 4 3 7Resale Value 1 0 1Condition of Existing Equipment 0 1 1Maintenance 0 1 1EnergyWorks Audit Recommendation 0 1 1
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Are rebates set at the right level?
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Contractor and Customer ReportRebate Sufficiency
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Rebate Amount is Sufficient to Encourage Purchase of Higher Efficiency Equipment
# Contractors # Customers
Gas Furnace
Gas Boiler
Gas Furnace
Gas Boiler
Yes 11 15 12 13Sometimes 2 2 -- --No 7 3 5 0Not Sure -- -- 0 2Total 20 20 17 15
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Customer ReportHow Long Considering Replacement
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How Long Considering Replacement
Furnace Rebate
Boiler Rebate Total
Heard from contractor 10 5 15Right after heard about rebate 0 1 1< 6 months 1 3 46-11 months 2 2 41-3 years 2 3 58-10 years 1 1 2Don’t Know 1 0 1Total 17 15 32
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Contractor ReportIncremental Cost Variability
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Incremental Costs Vary Widely by Home # Contractors
Yes 9No 11Total 20
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Contractor ReportHigh Efficiency Furnace Incremental Cost
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Incremental Costs Of High Efficiency Furnaces Compared to Least Expensive
# Contractors
$600-$800 2$1,000-$1,200 3$1,800-$2,500 8$3,000 1$3,500 1$4,000-$5,000 1Don’t Know/Refused 4Total 20
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Contractor ReportHigh Efficiency Boiler Incremental Cost
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Incremental Costs Of High Efficiency Boilers Compared to Least Expensive Alternative # Contractors
$600-$700 2$1,500-$2,000 4$3,000 4$4,000 4$5,000 2$4,000-$7,000 1Don’t Know/Refused 3Total 20
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Customer ReportHigh Efficiency Incremental Cost
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Incremental Cost of High Efficiency Quote
Furnace Rebate
Boiler Rebate Total
$600 - $1,000 3 0 3$1,001 - $1,500 4 0 4$1,501 - $2,000 3 0 3$2,001 - $3,000 1 1 2$3,001 - $4,000 0 4 4$4,001 - $5,000 0 1 1$6,001 - $7,000 0 1 1Did Not Discuss Alternatives 2 6 8Don’t Know 4 2 6Total 17 15 32
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What are the Barriers?
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Contractor ReportHigh Efficiency Barriers
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Reasons Customers do not Install High Efficiency Equipment # Contractors
Cost 15Installation issues 5Does not intend to remain in home 2Not comfortable with new technology 1Landlord renting out home 1Shorter warranty 1
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Impact Analysis
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Impact Methodology
• Billing analysis• Determination of fuel switchers• Later participant comparison group• Matched comparison group• Findings by boiler/furnace and pre-usage level
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Annual HVAC InstallationsIn Philadelphia Past Year
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Later Participant Comparison GroupTreatment Group Comparison Group
Net SavingsObs
Usage (ccf) SavingsObs
Usage (ccf) Savings
Pre Post ccf % Pre Post ccf % ccf %
Non Normalized
202 856 713 144 16.8% 169 934 833 101 10.8% 43 5.0%
Degree Day 202 949 783 166 17.5% 169 994 947 48 4.8% 118** 12.5%
PRISM 202 926 773 153 16.5% 169 966 944 22 2.3% 130** 14.1%
Pooled Regression
202 903 751 152 16.8% 169 948 896 52 5.5% 100** 11.0%
PooledMonth Dummy
202 908 756 152 16.7% 169 933 882 51 5.4% 101** 11.1%
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Annual HVAC InstallationsIn Philadelphia Past Year
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Matched Comparison GroupTreatment Group Comparison Group
Net SavingsObs
Usage (ccf) SavingsObs
Usage (ccf) Savings
Pre Post ccf % Pre Post ccf % ccf %
Non Normalized
202 856 713 144 16.8% 190 855 824 30 3.6% 113 13.2%
Degree Day 202 949 783 166 17.5% 190 940 882 57 6.1% 108** 11.4%
PRISM 202 926 773 153 16.5% 190 917 897 21 2.3% 132** 14.3%
Pooled Regression
202 903 751 152 16.8% 190 879 851 27 3.1% 124** 13.8%
PooledMonth Dummy
202 908 756 152 16.7% 190 911 883 27 3.0% 124** 13.7%
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Annual HVAC InstallationsIn Philadelphia Past Year
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Later Participant Comparison GroupDegree Day Normalization
Treatment Group Comparison GroupNet Savings
ObsUsage (ccf) Savings
ObsUsage (ccf) Savings
Pre Post ccf % Pre Post ccf % ccf %
Furnace 162 882 732 150** 17.0% 122 892 842 50** 5.6% 100** 11.3%
Boiler 40 1,220 990 229** 18.8% 47 1,260 1,219 41 3.2% 189** 15.5%
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Key Findings and Recommendations
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Findings
• Contractors do not often provide customer-specific savings estimates• Contractors need more information to effectively educate customers• RHER has impacted installation of high-efficiency furnaces and boilers• Both contractors and customers feel RHER rebate is important in high
efficiency purchase decision• Customers are also likely to cite environmental concerns• Incremental costs are highly variable• Rebate does not usually cover 80% of incremental costs• Venting barriers often present • Savings estimate range from 100-130 ccf (11%-14%)
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Recommendations
• Continuing marketing at supply houses• Improve and update RHER information on PGW website• Investigate whether joint marketing with electric utility is possible• Train contractors on selling high efficiency equipment• Consider incentive that varies based on costs or housing
characteristics• Revise protocol savings formula
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