may 28, 2009. in 2005, the us census bureau reported that 155,000,000 people, 53% of our...
TRANSCRIPT
May 28, 2009
In 2005, the US Census Bureau reported that 155,000,000 people, 53% of our population, resided in coastal areas.
The vast majority of coastal communities have no structural protection from storm surges and rely on preparedness and intelligent development practices to mitigate risk.
Hurricanes are a common occurrence throughout the Gulf Coast and Atlantic seaboard states – since 2000, 71 hurricanes were reported of which 41 made landfall.
Growth of Population Residingin Coastal Areas since 1950
Hurricanes and Landfall since 2000
In 2005, there were 27 named storms – 12 tropical and 15 hurricanes. 7 hurricanes made landfall.
Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma were the worse – creating havoc throughout the Gulf Coast, causing over $125 billion of damage, and testing all preparedness, protection, and response systems.
These storms demonstrated our lack of understanding, respect, and ability to manage catastrophic natural events.
Dennis Katrina Rita WilmaFormed 4-Jul-05 23-Aug-05 17-Sep-05 15-Oct-05
Highest Wind Speed
150 mph 175 mph 180 mph 185 mph
Fatalities42 direct
47 indirect1,836 confirmed
705 missing7 direct
113 indirect23 direct
39 indirect
Damage $4 billion $100 billion $10 billion $29.1 billion
Communities throughout the Gulf Cost suffered significant loss of life and property.
Coastal areas were devastated by high winds, storm surges and flooding.
These storms overwhelmed everything in their paths.
Hurricane Katrina was huge: Powerful with sustained winds over 130 mph. Had an incredible surge – over 30 feet at the center and a
footprint of 140 miles wide. Produced rain equivalent to the 500 year standard.
Katrina was one of the largest and most powerful storms of the 20th Century – far bigger than hurricanes Betsy and Camille.
It embodied the energy of 4 atomic bombs and overcame the structural defenses protecting the City of New Orleans.
Katrina destroyed over 200 square miles of coastal areas in Louisiana – more than 40% of the loss anticipated for the coming 50 years.
While the wind speed was great, the volume of water and the energy it produced was phenomenal.
When Katrina’s surge hit land, it was moving well over 3.6 trillion cubic feet of water.
Measured in Joules, Katrina’s energy was 27 times that of Hurricane Betsy and nearly 4 times that of Camille.
New Orleans
Mobile
16 – 18’
18 – 20’
18 – 20’
20 – 22’
22 – 24’
24 – 27’
14 – 16’
14 – 16’
12 – 14’
12 – 14’
10 – 12’
10 – 12’
KatrinaMaximum Water
Depths
Source: IPET Figures 74 & 75(Volume IV – The Storm (Pages IV-112 and 113)
10 – 12’
10 – 12’
10 – 12’
12 – 14’
12 – 14’
12 – 14’12 – 14’
14 – 16’14 – 16’
14 – 15’
16 – 18’
18 – 20’
20 – 22’ 22 – 24’24 – 28’
Maximum Tidal Surge Elevations – Hurricane Katrina Versus Betsy
Hurricane BetsyTotal Hurricane Energy Index = 3.1 GW Hurricane Katrina
Total Hurricane Energy Index = 85.5 GW
Mobile
NewOrleans
12 – 14’
12 – 14’
10 – 12’
14 – 15’
12 – 14’
10 – 12’
12 – 14’14 – 15’
12 – 14’
10 – 12’
10 – 12’
10 – 12’
10 – 12’
12 – 14’
12 – 14’
12 – 14’12 – 14’
14 – 16’14 – 16’
14 – 15’
16 – 18’
18 – 20’
20 – 22’ 22 – 24’24 – 28’
Maximum Tidal Surge Elevations – Hurricane Katrina Versus Camille
Hurricane CamilleTotal Hurricane Energy Index = 23.2 GW Hurricane Katrina
Total Hurricane Energy Index = 85.5 GW
Mobile
NewOrleans
NewOrleans
The impact of a storm like Katrina could never be fully prevented; however, it could be mitigated.
Of the over 100 billion dollars of damage, approximately $40 billion can be attributed to levee breaches and environmental deterioration.
Beyond the direct impact, the long term consequences of the storm in the New Orleans metropolitan area will prove to be costly and significant.
KatrinaMaximum Water
Depths
15’ In River
10 – 12’At Lakefront
16’ In River
14 - 16’12 - 14’
16 - 18’18 - 20’20 - 22’
22 - 24’24 - 27’
3.0’
<3.0’
>3.0’
>4.0’<3.0’
>3.0’
Area All
Damage M&S M&S
Flood
Total
1,197,499
305,109
217,078
Louisiana
515,249
204,737
168,813
Orleans
134,344
105,155
99,989
Louisiana 43.0% 67.1% 77.8%Orleans 11.2% 34.5% 46.1%
Nearly 1,200,000 homes were damaged by Katrina – of this amount, 43% were in Louisiana.
Throughout the impact area, 26% of all damage was Major or Severe in contrast to 40% in LA and 78% in New Orleans.
Flooding was clearly the primary cause of Major or Severe damage but particularly in LA where it accounted for 83% and in New Orleans where it was over 95%.
The Hardee Map of 1878 displays the layout of New Orleans when the city’s population was about 203,000. Areas developed and settled since then were affected severely by post-Katrina flooding.
The Hardee Map of 1878 displays the layout of New Orleans when the city’s population was about 203,000. Areas developed and settled since then were affected severely by post-Katrina flooding.
“The flood did not discriminate by race or class. It did discriminate historically: it took out everything but the old city. If you asked an architecture critic…to design a flood of this size in New Orleans, he would have given you something like this one.”
-Michael Lewis, The New York Times, October 9, 2005
“The flood did not discriminate by race or class. It did discriminate historically: it took out everything but the old city. If you asked an architecture critic…to design a flood of this size in New Orleans, he would have given you something like this one.”
-Michael Lewis, The New York Times, October 9, 2005
The following slides illustrate resettlement patterns in the City on a biannual basis from January 2006 through January 2009. These maps demonstrate how repopulation has radiated outward from areas which recovered quickly after the storm.
In each of these maps, red represents areas in which activity is less than 20% of its pre-Katrina level. Green represents areas in which activity is greater than 80% of its pre-Katrina level. Yellow and orange display areas in transition between these levels.
Boundaries of New Orleans City Council Districts are also displayed.
Estimated Single Family Home Value = $177,960(assumes in livable condition)
6,502 units occupied pre-Katrina but now vacant.
Source: www.city-data.com, GCR & Associates, Inc.
The impact of Hurricane Katrina on the communities, people and economy of the Gulf Coast was colossal.
There is a renewed respect for the necessity of preparedness, investment, and prudence: Preparedness - getting people out of harms way and
harnessing the resources required for an efficient response to emergency situations.
Investment – mitigating loss through improvements to flood control structures and coastal restoration initiatives.
Prudence – building “smarter” communities and more secure structures.
Through Federal assistance, over $15 billion will be invested to prevent flooding from storm surges in the New Orleans area.
The Domenici-Landrieu Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act of 2006 will provide billions of dollars for coastal restoration through a sharing of the federal oil and gas revenues from the Outer Continental Shelf.
Smart Growth policies are being incorporated into community planning initiatives to ensure the development of sustainable neighborhoods and buildings.
Living in a coastal area is inherently dangerous.
History has taught us that mitigating routine risks can increase the potential of catastrophic loss from extraordinary events – such was the case with Hurricane Katrina.
If a community relies on structural improvements for protection, they cannot fail – they must be built to withstand the impact of extraordinary events.
The ultimate measure of our success will be based upon a few fundamental principles: Safety – Can we ensure the well being of our citizenry
and the protection of our assets? Quality of Life – Can we provide a sense of confidence
and security to the communities that we protect? Prosperity – Can we foster and attract investment to
increase prosperity and facilitate economic stability and growth?
These are the questions that communities throughout the Gulf Coast are struggling to answer in the wake of the hurricanes of recent years.
For more information:Gregory C. [email protected]
2021 Lakeshore Drive, Ste. 500New Orleans, LA 70122800.259.6192 | 504.304.2500www.gcrConsulting.com