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Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

Executive Summary

The main aim of the investor is to minimize the risk involved in investment &

maximize the return. Today there are number of options available to investor like Post

Office investment, Bank Deposit, nsurance, !utual "und, #tock !arket etc...

Technical analysis is a financial markets techni$ue that claims the ability to

forecast the future direction of security prices throu%h the study of past market data,

primarily price and volume.

This proect is about a brief introduction to Technical 'nalysis, different price

patterns and trends in financial markets and attempt to exploit that patterns.etc( The

contents in this proect are made simple so as to make a layman understands the terms

used in the Technical 'nalysis.

The core area of this proect focuses )hat a technical analysts may employ

models and tradin% rules based, for example, on price transformations, such as the

*elative #tren%th ndex, movin% avera%es, throu%h reco%nition of chart patterns. This

proect contains some elementary statistics )hich are used in calculation )hich help

in dra)in% inferences.

The obective of the study helps to predict or forecast the short, intermediate &

lon% term price movements. +hen to buy and sell stock by analyzin% technical

indicators. 'nd helps to measure to the rate of chan%e bet)een the current price and

price in past and to identify overbou%ht& oversold re%ion. The art of technical

analysis for it is an art is to identify trend chan%es at an early sta%e and to maintain aninvestment an investment posture until the )ei%ht of the evidence indicates that the

trend has been reversed.

Technical 'nalysis also provides a comprehensive study on stock historical

price charts and predicts the future trend in the market. But still there is much

controversial opinion on the validity of technical tradin% rule. t re$uires more study

to prove the usefulness of technical analysis in investors buy/sell/hold decision

makin%.

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INTRODUCTION

ABOUT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

Technical analysis is a financial markets techni$ue that claims the ability to

forecast the future direction of security prices throu%h the study of past market data,

primarily price and volume. n its purest form, technical analysis considers only the

actual price behavior of the market or instrument, on the assumption that price reflectsall relevant factors before an investor becomes a)are of them throu%h other channels.

Technical analysts may employ models and tradin% rules based, for example,

on price transformations, such as the *elative #tren%th ndex, movin% avera%es,

re%ressions, inter-market and intra-market price correlations, cycles or, classically,

throu%h reco%nition of chart patterns.

Genera !e"cri#ti$n

Technical analysts or technicians/ seek to identify price patterns and trends in

financial markets and attempt to exploit those patterns. +hile technicians use various

methods and tools, the study of price charts is primary. Technicians especially search

for archetypal patterns, such as the )ell-kno)n head and shoulders reversal pattern,

and also study such indicators as price, volume, and movin% avera%es of the price.

!any technical analysts also follo) indicators of investor psycholo%y.

0ritics ar%ue that these 1patterns1 are simply random effects on )hich humans

impose causation. They state that human see patterns that aren1t there and then ascribe

value to them.

Technical analysts also extensively use indicators, )hich are typically

mathematical transformations of price or volume. These indicators are used to help

determine )hether an asset is trendin%, and if it is, its price direction. Technicians alsolook for relationships bet)een price, volume, and in the case of futures, open interest.



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2xamples include the relative stren%th index, and !'0D. Other avenues of study

include correlations bet)een chan%es in options 3implied volatility4 and put5call ratios

)ith price.

Technicians seek to forecast price movements such that lar%e %ains from

successful trades exceed more numerous but smaller losin% trades, producin% positive

returns in the lon% run throu%h proper risk control and money mana%ement.

Technical analysis is fre$uently contrasted )ith fundamental analysis, the

study of economic factors that some analysts say can influence prices in financial

markets. Pure technical analysis holds that prices already reflect all such influencesbefore investors are a)are of them, hence the study of price action alone. #ome

traders use technical or fundamental analysis exclusively, )hile others use both types

to make tradin% decisions.

Lac% $& evi!ence

0ritics of technical analysis include )ell kno)n fundamental analysts. "or

example, Peter 6ynch once commented, 70harts are %reat for predictin% the past.7

+arren Buffet has said, 7 realized technical analysis didn1t )ork )hen turned the

charts upside do)n and didn1t %et a different ans)er7 and 7f past history )as all there

)as to the %ame, the richest people )ould be librarians8.

!ost academic studies say technical analysis has little predictive po)er, but

some studies say it may produce excess returns. "or example, measurable forms of

technical analysis, such as non-linear prediction usin% neural net)orks, have been

sho)n to occasionally produce statistically si%nificant prediction results. ' "ederal

*eserve )orkin% paper re%ardin% support and resistance levels in short-term forei%n

exchan%e rates 7offers stron% evidence that the levels help to predict intraday trend

interruptions,7 althou%h the 7predictive po)er7 of those levels )as 7found to vary

across the exchan%e rates and firms examined.7



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E&&icient mar%et 'y#$t'e"i"

The efficient market hypothesis 2!9/ contradicts the basic tenets of

technical analysis, by statin% that past prices cannot be used to profitably predict

future prices. Thus it holds that technical analysis cannot be effective. 2conomist

2u%ene "ame published the seminal paper on the 2!9 in the :ournal of "inance in

;, and said 7n short, the evidence in support of the efficient markets model is

extensive, and contradictory evidence is sparse8. 2!9 advocates say that if prices

$uickly reflect all relevant information, no method includin% technical analysis/ can7beat the market.7 Developments )hich influence prices occur randomly and are

unkno)able in advance.

Technicians say that 2!9 i%nores the )ay markets )ork, in that many

investors base their expectations on past earnin%s or track record, for example.

Because future stock prices can be stron%ly influenced by investor expectations,

technicians claim it only follo)s that past prices influence future prices.

Ran!$m (a% 'y#$t'e"i"

The random )alk hypothesis may be derived from the )eak-form efficient

markets hypothesis, )hich is based on the assumption that market participants take

full account of any information contained in past price movements.7The problem is

that once such re%ularity is kno)n to market participants, people )ill act in such a

)ay that prevents it from happenin% in the future8.

Hi"t$ry

The principles of technical analysis derive from the observation of financial

markets over hundreds of years. The oldest kno)n example of technical analysis )as

a method used by :apanese traders as early as the ;?th century, )hich evolved into the

use of candlestick techni$ues, and is today a main chartin% tool. !any more technical



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tools and theories have been developed and enhanced in recent decades, )ith an

increasin% emphasis on computer-assisted techni$ues.

)rinci#e" $& tec'nica anay"i"

Technicians say that a market1s price reflects all relevant information, so their

analysis looks more at 7internals7 than at 7externals7 such as ne)s events. Price action

also tends to repeat itself because investors collectively tend to)ard patterned

behavior -- hence technicians1 focus on identifiable trends and conditions.

*ar%et acti$n !i"c$unt" everyt'in+

On most of the sizable return days the information that the press cites as the

cause of the market move is not particularly important. Press reports on adacent days

also fail to reveal any convincin% accounts of )hy future profits or discount rates

mi%ht have chan%ed. Our inability to identify the fundamental shocks that accounted

for these si%nificant market moves is difficult to reconcile )ith the vie) that such

shocks account for most of the variation in stock returns.

)rice" m$ve in tren!"

Technical analysts believe that prices trend. Technicians say that markets

trend up, do)n, or side)ays flat/. 'n example of a security that had an apparent

trend is 'O6 from @ovember A>>; throu%h 'u%ust A>>A. ' technical analyst or trend

follo)er reco%nizin% this trend )ould look for opportunities to sell this security. 'O6

consistently moves do)n)ard in price. 2ach time the stock rose, sellers )ould enter

the market and sell the stock hence the 7zi%-za%7 movement in the price. n other

)ords, each time the stock ed%ed lo)er, it fell belo) its previous relative lo) price.

Hi"t$ry ten!" t$ re#eat it"e&

Technical analysts believe that investors collectively repeat the behavior of the

investors that preceded them. Technical analysis is not limited to chartin%, yet is

al)ays concerned )ith price trends. "or example, many technicians monitor surveysof investor sentiment.. Technicians use these surveys to help determine )hether a



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trend )ill continue or if a reversal could develop they are most likely to anticipate a

chan%e )hen the surveys report extreme investor sentiment.

Rue,-a"e! tra!in+

*ule-based tradin% is an approach to make one1s tradin% plans by strict and

clear-cut rules. Cnlike some other technical methods or most fundamental analysis, it

defines a set of rules that determines all trades, leavin% minimal discretion. "or

instance, a trader mi%ht make a set of rules statin% that he )ill take a lon% position

)henever the price of a particular instrument closes above its >-day movin% avera%e,

and shortin% it )henever it drops belo).

C$m-inin+ Tec'nica Anay"i" (it' $t'er *ar%et .$reca"t *et'$!"

:ohn !urphy in his book 7Technical 'nalysis of the "inancial !arkets7, says

that the principal sources of information available to technicians are price, volume

and open interest. Other data, such as indicators and sentiment analysis are consideredsecondary. Technical analysis is also often combined )ith $uantitative analysis and

economics. "or example, neural net)orks may be used to help identify inter market

relationships. ' fe) market forecasters combine financial astrolo%y )ith technical

analysis.

C'artin+ term" an! in!icat$r"

+idely-kno)n technical analysis concepts includeE

Breakout - )hen a price passes throu%h and stays above an area of support or

resistance

0ommodity 0hannel ndex - identifies cyclical trends

!omentum - the rate of price chan%e

!ovin% avera%e - la%s behind the price action

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*elative #tren%th ndex *#/ - oscillator sho)in% price stren%th

*esistance - an area that brin%s on increased sellin%

AN OERIE0 O. STOC1 *AR1ET:

' stock market is a private or public market for the tradin% of company stock and

derivatives of company stock at an a%reed price both of these are securities listed on

a stock exchan%e as )ell as those only traded privately.

De&initi$n:

The expression 1stock market1 refers to the market that enables the tradin% of

company stocks collective shares/, other securities, and derivatives. Bonds are still

traditionally traded in an informal, over-the-counter market kno)n as the bond

market. 0ommodities are traded in commodities markets, and derivatives are traded in

a variety of markets but, like bonds, mostly 1over-the-counter1/.

*ar%et #artici#ant":

!any years a%o, )orld)ide, buyers and sellers )ere individual investors, such

as )ealthy businessmen, )ith lon% family histories to particular corporations. Over

time, markets have become more 7institutionalized7 buyers and sellers are lar%ely

institutions e.%., pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, hed%e funds,

investor %roups, and banks/.

The rise of the institutional investor has brou%ht )ith it some improvements in

market operations. Thus, the %overnment )as responsible for 7fixed7 fees bein%

markedly reduced for the 1small1 investor, but only after the lar%e institutions had

mana%ed to break the brokers1 solid front on fees they then )ent to 1ne%otiated1 fees,

but only for lar%e institutions/.

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Im#$rtance $& "t$c% mar%et:

1. .uncti$n an! #ur#$"e:

The stock market is one of the most important sources for companies to raise

money. This allo)s businesses to %o public, or raise additional capital for expansion.

The li$uidity that an exchan%e provides affords investors the ability to $uickly and

easily sell securities. This is an attractive feature of investin% in stocks, compared to

other less li$uid investments such as real estate.

2. Reati$n $& t'e "t$c% mar%et t$ t'e m$!ern &inancia "y"tem:

The financial system in most )estern countries has under%one a remarkable

transformation. One feature of this development is disintermediation. ' portion of the

funds involved in savin% and financin% flo)s directly to the financial markets instead

of bein% routed via banks1 traditional lendin% and deposit operations. The %eneral

public1s hei%htened interest in investin% in the stock market, either directly or throu%h

mutual funds, has been an important component of this process. #tatistics sho) that in

recent decades shares have made up an increasin%ly lar%e proportion of households1

financial assets in many countries.

23 T'e St$c% *ar%et4 in!ivi!ua inve"t$r" 5 &inancia ri"%:

*iskier lon%-term savin% re$uires that an individual possess the ability to mana%e

the associated increased risks. #tock prices fluctuate )idely, in marked contrast to the

stability of bank deposits or bonds. This is somethin% that could affect not only the

individual investor or household, but also the economy on a lar%e scale. This is

certainly more important no) that so many ne)comers have entered the stock market,

or have ac$uired other 1risky1 investments.

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Irrati$na -e'avi$r:

#ometimes the market tends to react irrationally to economic ne)s, even if

that ne)s has no real affect on the technical value of securities itself. Therefore, the

stock market can be s)ayed tremendously in either direction by press releases,

rumors, euphoria and mass panic. Over the short-term, stocks and other securities can

be battered or buoyed by any number of fast market-chan%in% events, makin% the

stock market difficult to predict.

63 T'e Cra"'e":

' stock market crash is often defined as a sharp dip in share prices of e$uities

listed on the stock exchan%es. n parallel )ith various economic factors, a reason for

stock market crashes is also due to panic. Often, stock market crashes end up )ith

speculative economic bubbles.

St$c% mar%et in!ex:

The movements of the prices in a market or section of a market are captured in

price indices called stock market indices, of )hich there are many, e.%., the #&P, the

"T#2 and the 2uro next indices. #uch indices are usually market capitalization the

total market value of floatin% capital of the company/ )ei%hted, )ith the )ei%hts

reflectin% the contribution of the stock to the index. The constituents of the index are

revie)ed fre$uently to include5exclude stocks in order to reflect the chan%in%

business environment.

Derivative in"trument":

"inancial innovation has brou%ht many ne) financial instruments )hose pay-

offs or values depend on the prices of stocks. #ome examples are exchan%e-traded

funds 2T"s/, stock index and stock options, e$uity s)aps, sin%le-stock futures, and

stock index futures. These last t)o may be traded on futures exchan%es )hich are

distinct from stock exchan%esFtheir history traces back to commodities futures

exchan%es/, or traded over-the-counter. 's all of these products are only derivedfrom

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stocks, they are sometimes considered to be traded in a hypothetical/ derivatives

market, rather than the hypothetical/ stock market.

Levera+e! Strate+ie":

#tock that a trader does not actually o)n may be traded usin% short sellin%

mar%in buyin% may be used to purchase stock )ith borro)ed funds or, derivatives

may be used to control lar%e blocks of stocks for a much smaller amount of money

than )ould be re$uired by outri%ht purchase or sale.

73 S'$rt "ein+:

n short sellin%, the trader borro)s stock usually from his brokera%e )hich

holds its clients1 shares or its o)n shares on account to lend to short sellers/ then sells

it on the market, hopin% for the price to fall. The trader eventually buys back the

stock, makin% money if the price fell in the meantime or losin% money if it rose.

2xitin% a short position by buyin% back the stock is called 7coverin% a short position.7

This strate%y may also be used by unscrupulous traders to artificially lo)er the price

of a stock. 9ence most markets either prevent short sellin% or place restrictions on

)hen and ho) a short sale can occur.

83 *ar+in -uyin+:

n mar%in buyin%, the trader borro)s money at interest/ to buy a stock and

hopes for it to rise. !ost industrialized countries have re%ulations that re$uire that ifthe borro)in% is based on collateral from other stocks the trader o)ns outri%ht, it can

be a maximum of a certain percenta%e of those other stocks1 value. ' mar%in call is

made if the total value of the investor1s account cannot support the loss of the trade.

*e%ulation of mar%in re$uirements by the "ederal *eserve/ )as implemented after

the 0rash of ;


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Ne( i""uance:

Global issuance of e$uity and e$uity-related instruments totaled H> billion

in A>>I, a A>K. nitial public offerin%s

POs/ by C# issuers increased AA;J )ith AKK offerin%s that raised HI billion, and

POs in 2urope, !iddle 2ast and 'frica 2!2'/ increased by KKKJ, from H < billion

to HK< billion.

Inve"tment "trate+ie":

One of the many thin%s people al)ays )ant to kno) about the stock market is,79o) do make money investin%L7 There are many different approaches t)o basic

methods are classified as either &un!amenta anay"i" $r tec'nica anay"i".

"undamental analysis refers to analyzin% companies by their financial statements

found in #20 "ilin%s, business trends, %eneral economic conditions, etc. Tec'nica

anay"i"studies price actions in markets throu%h the use of charts and $uantitative

techni$ues to attempt to forecast price trends re%ardless of the company1s financial

prospects.

Taxati$n:

'ccordin% to each national or state le%islation, a lar%e array of fiscal

obli%ations must be respected re%ardin% capital %ains, and taxes are char%ed by the

state over the transactions, dividends and capital %ains on the stock market, in

particular in the stock exchan%es. 9o)ever, these fiscal obli%ations may vary from

urisdiction to urisdiction because, amon% other reasons, it could be assumed thattaxation is already incorporated into the stock price throu%h the different taxes

companies pay to the state, or that tax free stock market operations are useful to boost

economic %ro)th.



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RESEARCH DESIGN:

*esearch desi%n is the blue print of the study. t provides a frame)ork under

)hich the research has been conducted. t includes title of the study, problem

statement, obectives, scope & limitations of the study, methods used for data

collection and interpretation and an overvie) of chapter scheme.

837 Tite $& t'e )r$9ect

' #tudy on Technical analysis of cement sector in ndia.

838 Statement $& )r$-em

Technical analysts or technicians/ seek to identify price patterns and trends in

financial markets and attempt to exploit those patterns the main problem is that these

patterns are simply random effects on )hich humans impose causation.

832 Revie( $& Literature

@eftci ;


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n a comprehensive and influential study Brock, 6akonishok and 6ebaron

;


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83; *et'$!$$+y

The data collected for the research purpose are secondary data. 0losin% prices

of scripts )ere collected throu%h @ational #tock 2xchan%e )ebsite. The data

employed in this study comprises of five year observations on the 0ement #ector

companies 0losin% price.

SECONDARY DATA:

#econdary data refers to those data that has already been collected and

analyzed by someone else. n other )ords secondary data is the informationthat already exists some)here havin% been collected for another purpose. t this

study secondary data )as collected from various sources likeE

+eb sites

Text Books

Business ma%azines.



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83< Stati"tica T$$" U"e! in Anay"i" $& Stu!y:

;. !ovin% 'vera%e.A. *elative stren%th index.

7= *$vin+ Avera+e3

!ovin% avera%e is an indicator that sho)s the avera%e value of a security1s price

over a period of time. To find the >-day movin% avera%e you )ould add up the

closin% prices but not al)ays(more later/ from the past > days and divide them by

>. 'nd because prices are constantly chan%in% it means the movin% avera%e )ill

move as )ell.

The most commonly used movin% avera%es are the A>, K>, >, ;>>, and A>>-day

avera%es. 2ach movin% avera%e provides a different interpretation on )hat the stock

price )ill do. !ovin% avera%es )ith different time spans each tell a different story.

The shorter the time span, the more sensitive the movin% avera%e )ill be to price

chan%es. The lon%er the time span, the less sensitive or the more smoothed the

movin% avera%e )ill be. !ovin% avera%es are used to emphasize the direction of a

trend and smooth out price and volume fluctuations or that can confuse interpretation.

The %eneral assumption behind all movin% avera%es is that once the stock price

moves above the avera%e it may have substantial momentum behind it and is )orth

buyin%. The opposite is true if the price of a security moves belo) the movin%

avera%e.

Typically, )hen a stock price moves belo) its movin% avera%e it is a bad si%n

because the stock is movin% on a ne%ative trend. The opposite is true for stocksthat

exceed their movin% avera%e - in this case, hold on for the ride.

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8=Reative "tren+t' in!ex:

There are a fe) different tools that can be used to interpret the stren%th of a

stock. One of these is the *elative #tren%th ndex*#/, )hich is a comparison

bet)een the days that a stock finishes up and the days it finishes do)n. This indicator

is a bi% tool in momentum tradin%.

The *# is a reasonably simple model that anyone can use. t is calculated

usin% the follo)in% formula.

RSI > 7?? , @7??/7 RS=

*# 'v%. of n-day up closes//'v%. of n-day do)n closes/

The *# ran%es from > to ;>>. 't around the => levels, a stock is considered

overbou%htand you should consider sellin%. n abull market some believe that ?> is a

better level to indicate an overbou%ht stock since stocks often trade at hi%her

valuations durin% bull markets. 6ike)ise, if the *# approaches K>, a stock is

considered oversold and you should consider buyin%. '%ain, make the adustment to

A> in abear market.

The smaller the number of days used, the more volatile the *# is and the

more often it )ill hit extremes. ' lon%er term *# is more rollin%, fluctuatin% a lot

less. Different sectors and industries have varyin% threshold levels )hen it comes to

the *#. #tocks in some industries )ill %o as hi%h as =-?> before droppin% back,

)hile others have a tou%h time breakin% past =>. ' %ood rule is to )atch the *# over

the lon% term one year or more/ to determine at )hat level the historical *# has

traded and ho) the stock reacted )hen it reached those levels.

83 Overvie( $& Re#$rt

http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rsi.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/overbought.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bullmarket.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/oversold.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rsi.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/overbought.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bullmarket.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/oversold.asphttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp


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C'a#ter "c'eme:

C'a#ter 7: Intr$!ucti$n

This chapter includes ntroduction of Technical analysis and 0ement sector.

C'a#ter 8: Re"earc' !e"i+n

*esearch desi%n is the blue print of the study. t provides a frame)ork under )hich

the research has been conducted. t includes title of the study, problem statement,

obectives, scope & limitations of the study, methods used for data collection and

interpretation and an overvie) of chapter scheme.

C'a#ter 2: In!u"try #r$&ie

This chapter covers the industry profile.

C'a#ter 6: Anay"i" an! Inter#retati$n $& !ata

This chapter includes the data collected for the purpose of research and the

interpretation of the data, tables and %raphs are used )herever necessary.

C'a#ter : Summary $& .in!in+"4 C$ncu"i$n" 5Rec$mmen!ati$n"

This chapter provides maor findin%s and conclusions of the study for it also includes

the recommendation made by the researcher.

Bi-i$+ra#'y

Annexure

63 INDUSTRY )RO.ILE

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INTRODUCTION TO CE*ENT SECTOR

ndia is today the second lar%est producer of cement in )orld )ith an installed

capacity of close to ; million tonnes per year. J per annum. !ore than

J of production comes from lar%e cement plants. There are a total of ;K> lar%e and

more than K> small cement manufacturin% units in the country. !ore than ?>J of

the cement-manufacturin% units use modern environment friendly Qdry8 process.

The forms of cement producedE

Ordinary Portland 0ement

Portland Pozzolana 0ement

Portland #la% 0ement

Blended 0ement

!aor players in ndian cement sectorE

9eidelber%

6afar%e

talcementi

9olcim

Gurat 'mbua 0ement

'00

Cltratech 0ement

ndia 0ements

0entury 0ements

:aypee Group

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!adras 0ements

Dalima cements

ndias per capita cement productionE ;K> k% per annum. +orld avera%e of per

capita cement productionE !ore than A?> k% per annum.

Bottlenecks of 0ement ndustryE

' comparison of the ener%y efficiency of ndian cement industry )ith that of

other developed nations sho)s ndian companies are la%%in%.

*e%ional imbalances in cement production.

9i%h transportation cost involved.

have taken five 0ement #ector 0ompanies )hich are as follo)sE

;. '00

A. C6T*'T209.

K. G*'#!.

I.B*6' #CP2*

.'!BC:'

;. ACC:

'00 6imited is ndias foremost manufacturer of cement and ready mix

concrete )ith a country)ide net)ork of factories and marketin% offices. 2stablished

in ;


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the ndian market. t is the only cement company that fi%ures in the list of 0onsumer

#uperBrands of ndia. 'mon% the first companies in ndia to include commitment to

environment protection as a corporate obective, '00 has )on several prizes and

accolades for environment friendly measures taken at its plants and mines. The

company has also been felicitated for its acts of %ood corporate citizenship.

'00 )as the first recipient of '##O09'!s first ever @ational ')ard for

outstandin% performance in promotin% rural and a%ricultural development activities in

;>A. Over the years, there

have been many a)ards and felicitations for achievements in *ural and community

development, #afety, 9ealth, Tree plantation, afforestation, clean minin%,

2nvironment a)areness and protection.

A. ULTRATECHE

Cltratech 0ement 6imited, a Grasim subsidiary has an annual capacity of ;=

million tonnes. t manufactures and markets Ordinary Portland 0ement, Portland

Blast "urnace #la% 0ement and Portland Pozzolana 0ement.

CltraTech has five inte%rated plants, five %rindin% units and three terminals F

t)o in ndia and one in #ri 6anka. These include an inte%rated plant and t)o %rindin%

units of the erst)hile @armada 0ement 0ompany 6imited, a subsidiary, )hich hasbeen amal%amated )ith the company in !ay A>>N.CltraTech is the country1s lar%est

exporter of cement clinker. The company exports over A. million tonnes per annum,

)hich is about K> per cent of the country1s total exports. The export markets span

countries around the ndian Ocean, 'frica, 2urope and the !iddle 2ast.

The cement division of 6&T )as demer%ed in A>>I after Grasim made the K>

per cent open offer for e$uity shares, %ainin% control over the ne) company,

christened CltraTech. *eady !ix 0oncrete is likely to see substantial %ro)th in the

The Administrative management college, Bangalore. 2$


21/70


comin% years. *eco%nizin% the opportunities that this business )ill offer, CltraTech

has commenced settin% up of *eady !ix 0oncrete plants at various places in the

country. CltraTech1s subsidiaries areE Dakshin 0ements 6imited and CltraTech

0eylinco Private/ 6imited.

K. GRASI*:

Grasim ndustries 6imited, a fla%ship company of the 'ditya Birla Group,

ranks amon% ndia1s lar%est private sector companies, )ith consolidated net revenues

of *s.;I; billion and a consolidated net profit of *s.A> billion"RA>>=/.

#tartin% as a textiles manufacturer in ;


22/70


'll of Grasim1s units have earned #O >A and ;I>>; certifications.

Product $uality, innovation and eco-friendliness are a hallmark of all the company1s

divisions.

3 BIRLA SU))ER

t is a unit of Grasim Birla #uper 0ement is a %rindin% unit of ;. !illion Tons

capacity )ith a modern technolo%y manufacturin% process involves a level of

sophistication & ne) to the 0ement industry.

The technolo%y )as supplied by 1rupp Polysis7 of Germany such as *oller

Press, Grindin% !ill. 2lectronic Packer enables for automatic packin% & )ei%hin% of0ement Ba%s. Cnloadin% of ra) material 0linker/, )hich is bein% received from

rail)ay, +a%ons are unloaded by atomised 1+a%on Tippler1. 'll the process of

manufacturin% and packin% are atomized & is controlled throu%h electronic devices &

P60 at 0entral 0ontrol *ooms Plant, Packin% Plant & +a%on Tippler.

Three %rades of Products i.e. OP0 IK Grade, OP0 K & PP0 are

manufactured. The brand names of these $ualities are 1*aashree1, 1Birla #uper1 &

1Birla Plus1 respectively.

The plant po)er is connected to ;KA S Po)er supply of !#2B %rid &

havin% connected load of ;AN> +. 'll 2lectrical & nstruments e$uipment is of

latest desi%n & hi%h efficiency.

The unit has )on the @ational ')ard for the 72xcellence in 2ner%y conservation7

from the 0 for.

the A>>>-1>> & A>>;-1>A consecutively for the outstandin% savin% in ener%y.The unit has ba%%ed Nati$na A(ar! for 12ner%y 0onservation & 2ner%y

!ana%ement1 or%anised by 0 for t)ice i.e., A>>>-1>> & A>>;-1>A.



23/70


!ana%ement of 1Birla #uper 0ement1 takes keen interest in reduction of 1ener%y cost1

by implementin% ener%y conservation activities and mana%in% plant operatin% times to

avail the maximum benefits from the #tate 2lectricity Board in 1Po)er factor1, 1@i%ht

0onsumption rebate& 1Bulk discount1.

"ollo)in% are the maor 2nvironmental & #afety 'ctivities done at our plant.

nclusion of PP0 %rade 0ement to utilize )aste fly ash from po)er plant.

'tomized handlin% of fly ash throu%h air ti%ht tankers to avoid fu%itive natural

escape of fly ash to environment.

Pneumatic unloadin% systems for dust free unloadin% of fly ash from tankers.

nstallation of additional t)o dust collectors at +5T to avoid dust emission.

nstallation of %ypsum shed of AU>>> !T to avoid land contamination.

Development of rain )ater harvestin% reservoir.

0overin% of belt conveyors to avoid dust emission durin% transportation

=A*BUFA CE*ENT

Am-u9a Cement")as set up in ;


24/70


2nvironment policy is built around t)o simple truths. One, no cement plant can

flourish at the cost of the environment. 's one of the countrys lar%est producers of

cement, )ith a lar%e presence around the country, )e have an obli%ation to protect the

environment )e function in.

'lso, as )e discovered, bein% environmentally conscious, almost never interfered

)ith runnin% a profitable business. n fact its $uite the contrary.

Our efforts to achieve )orld standards in environment protection, for instance,

have had the happy outcome of substantially improvin% efficiency and profitability.

The fact is, a cleaner environment isnt ust better for the people, it reduces )ear and

tear on plants and machinery as )ell. Thus directly contributin% to the bottom line.

Besides dust in cement plants is nothin% but cement itself, )hich )e capture and ba%.

Our approach has made us the one of the )orlds most environment friendly

cement companys. 'nd the most profitable.



25/70


63 ANALSIS AND DATA INTER)RETATION:

Cacuati$n:

7= ACC Lt!: *OEING AERAGE

MONTH

CLOSINGPRICE

SUM OF 12MONTHS

AVERAGE

SUM OF 3MONTHS

AVERAGE

Apr-05 365.7

May-05 30.02!5

"#$-05 37!.!65 115%203%73.3

3

"#&-05 %1!.712 1155113503.6

7

A#'-05 %5%.265 115603

353%.3

3S(p-05 %76.661 1156!5 3565

O)*-05 %5!.!5 1157735!5.6

7

N+,-05 %!1.!27 1157!3626.3

3

()-05 537.302 115!703656.6

7

"a$-06 550.105 116062367.3

3

F(-06 5!1.0! 11615% 371

Mar-06 7%6.%5 553.1555 %7.763 1162%% 37%Apr-06 !20.%61 6%07.!165 533.!!3 11633% 377

May-06 72.66 6!00.555

575.0%63 116%23

307.67

"#$-06 7%6.121 7266.711605.55!

3 11651533.3

3

"#&-06 15.035 7662.03%63.502

11660636.6

7

A#'-06 .531 0!6.367%.6!1

7 1166!3!!.3

3

S(p-06 !50.75! 570.3!

71%.1!!

1167!0 3!30



26/70


O)*-06 !%.125 !0!%.573757.1

1 11623!60.6

7

N+,-06 10%.%02 !651.0% 0%.25% 116!7%3!!1.3

3

()-06 1071.675 1015.%21%.75

1 1170653!021.6

7

"a$-07 1063.631 106!.!%7!1.57

! 1171573!052.3

3

F(-07 1005.3! 11113.2%7!26.103

! 1172%! 3!03

Mar-07 77%.1%! 111%0.!%6!2.%12

2 11733! 3!113

Apr-07 773.1! 10!!%.30% !16.1!2 117%2! 3!1%3

May-07 73.%2! 10!!5.065

!16.255% 11751

3!172.67

"#$-07 35.1%3 110%.07 !23.673! 117610 3!203.33

"#&-07 105!.651 1132.703!%%.05

6 1177013!233.6

7

A#'-07 1000.50! 11%%0.61!53.3!0

1 1177!33!26%.3

3

S(p-07 112%.0% 11613.!62!67.30

2 1175 3!2!5

O)*-07 11%%.627 1177%.%6%!1.205

3 117!773!325.6

7

N+,-07 1061.566 1177.62!2.302

3 1106!3!356.3

3

()-07 1053.10% 1176!.057!0.75%

111603!36.6

7

"a$-0 73.152 1157.57!6%.1

5 112523!%17.3

3

F(-0 77%.20! 113%7.3!!%5.616

5 113%% 3!%%

Mar-0 7!.572 11362.21!%6.!01

11%353!%7.3

3

Apr-0 0!.!55 113!.!57!%!.!13

1 115263!50.6

7

May-

0 6!%.103 1121!.631

!3%.!6!

3 11616

3!53.6

7

"#$-0 61.516 11003.00% !16.!17 11703!56!.3

3

"#&-0 5%0.7%1 10%%.0!%73.67%

5 117!!3!5!!.6

7

A#'-0 5!.755 10073.3% 3!.%%5 11!13!630.3

3

S(p-0 601.31! !550.61!7!5.%

! 11!3 3!661

O)*-0 515.3!2 !21.3%7%3.%%

7 11!0753!6!1.6

7

N+,-0 %%1.01! 300.37

6!1.736

% 11!167

3!722.3

3()-0 %67.3%2 7715.075 6%2.!22 11!25 3!752.6



27/70


! 7

"a$-0! %!!.!3 73%1.53611.21

1 11!3503!73.3

3

F(-0! 5%5.61 7113.25%

5!2.771

2 11!%%2 3!1%

Mar-0! 5%!.%% 673.122572.760

2 11!532 3!%%

Apr-0! 620.3 663.555556.!62

! 11!622 3!7%

May-0! 60.067 666!.51!

555.7!33 11!711

3!!03.67

"#$-0! 0.!76 65!.!7!571.66%

! 11!033!!3%.3

3

"#&-0! 0.0152 7127.25325!3.!37

11!!%3!!6%.6

7

A#'-0! 23.126 7360.62%2 613.35% 11!!6 3!!!5.33

S(p-0! 02.2!7 7561.6022630.133

5 12007 %0026

O)*-0! 21.67 767.2655.657

% 120170%0056.6

7

N+,-0! 7%.605 175.%7%261.2!

5 120262%007.3

3

()-0! 3.56% 5%6.6!62712.22%

7 120353%0117.6

7

"a$-10 !22.207 !6.!7327%7.%1%

% 120%%5%01%.3

3

F(-10 6.2% !30!.6032775.00

3 120537 %017!

Mar-10 !70.0! !730.253210.5%

% 120627 %020!

83=RSI



28/70


MONTH

CLOSINGPRICE GAIN LOSS

Apr-05 365.7

May-05 30.02!51%.32!

5

"#$-05 37!.!65 0.06%5

"#&-05 %1!.712 3!.7%7

A#'-05 %5%.265 3%.553

S(p-05 %76.661 22.3!6

O)*-05 %5!.!5 16.711

N+,-05 %!1.!27 31.!77

()-05 537.302 %5.375

"a$-06 550.105 12.03

F(-06 5!1.0! %0.!%

Mar-06 7%6.%5155.36

1

Apr-06 !20.%6117%.01

1

May-06 72.66 %7.7!3

"#$-06 7%6.121 126.5%7


SUM

571.536

5

1!1.115

5AVERAGE

3.102%3

12.7%103

RS 2.!!05

RSI

!6.76%!5

2"


29/70


MONTHCLOSINGPRICE GAIN LOSS

"#&-06 15.035

A#'-06 .531 73.%!6

S(p-06 !50.75! 62.22

O)*-06 !%.125 33.366

N+,-06 10%.%02 6%.277

()-06 1071.675 23.273

"a$-07 1063.631 .0%%F(-07 1005.3! 5.2%2

Mar-07 77%.1%! 231.2%

Apr-07 773.1! 0.33

May-07 73.%2! !!.61

"#$-07 35.1%3 3.26

"#&-07 105!.65122%.50

A#'-07 1000.50! 5!.1%2

S(p-07 112%.0%123.53

1

SUM 70%.2! 3!5.2%

AVERAGE %6.!526

26.35227

RS

1.7172!

RSI 6%.05

MONTH


O)*-07 11%%.627

N+,-07 1061.566 3.061

()-07 1053.10% .%62

"a$-0 73.152 17!.!52

F(-0 77%.20! !.!%3

Mar-0 7!.572 15.363

Apr-0 0!.!55 20.33

May-0 6!%.103 115.52"#$-0 61.516 75.57

The Administrative management college, Bangalore. 2#


30/70


"#&-0 5%0.7%1 77.775

A#'-0 5!.755 %!.01%

S(p-0 601.31! 11.56%

O)*-0 515.3!2 5.!27N+,-0 %%1.01! 7%.373

()-0 %67.3%2 26.323

SUM 122.6%7

7!!.!32

AVERAGE

.176%67

53.32

RS

0.010221

RSI 1.01175!

MONTH


"a$-0! %!!.!3

F(-0! 5%5.61 %5.6

Mar-0! 5%!.%% 3.3

Apr-0! 620.3 70.!%

May-0! 60.067 5!.67!

"#$-0! 0.!76 12.!0!

"#&-0! 0.0152 0.!60

A#'-0! 23.126 15.110

S(p-0! 02.2!7 20.2!

O)*-0! 21.67 1!.31

N+,-0! 7%.605 73.073

()-0! 3.56% !.!5!

"a$-10 !22.207 3.6%3

F(-10 6.2% 35.!67

Mar-10 !70.0! 3.5



31/70


*$vin+ Avera+e

7= ACC:

S'$rt Term *$vin+ Avera+e:


SUM

600.!!

130.2!

AVERAGE

%0.065!!

.721!7

RS

%.5!3677

RSI

2.12267

31


32/70


n the above chart blue color sho)s the closin% price and red colorsho)s the !ovin% avera%ei.e. Kmonths/

!ovin% avera%es are used alon% )ith the price of the scrip.

n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%e indicatesthe possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "esi%nal is %enerated durin% ,"ebruary , :uly& October.

Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibility ofthe further rise. 9ence, the -uysi%nal is %enerated durin% 'pril, !ay &December

The movin% avera%e is continuously fallin% from October to :anuary.

The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from 'u%ust to @ovember.

L$n+ Term *$vin+ Avera+e:



33/70


This chart is similar to previous chart but it is lon% term movin% avera%e.

n the above chart, -uecolor indicates closin% price.Re!color indicates lon%

term movin% avera%e i.e., ;Amonths !S/.


n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%e indicates the

possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "e si%nal is %enerated durin%

December & October.

Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibility of the

further rise. 9ence, the -uysi%nal is %enerated durin% #eptember & :anuary.

The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from October to :anuary.

The movin% avera%e is continuously fallin% from October to 'u%ust .

ULTRATECH



34/70


*OING AERAGE

MONTH

CLOSINGPRICE

SUM OF 12MONTHS AVG

SUM OF 3MONTHS AVG

Apr-05 355.1%

May-05 337.!6

"#$-05 327.613 1020.73!3%0.2%6

3

"#&-05 370.57 1036.163%5.3!5

3

A#'-05 %06.115 110%.315 36.105

S(p-05 %51.!7 122.6 %0!.56

O)*-05 %25.% 123.%!3 %27.31

N+,-05 %%.335 1325.713%%1.!0%

3

()-05 %35.!36 130!.671 %36.557

"a$-06 %.1!7 1372.%6%57.%!

3

F(-06 56!.171 1%!3.30% %!7.76

Mar-06 616.3% 5233.2!2%36.107

7 167%.20255.067

3

Apr-06 767.36 56%5.53%70.%61

5 1!53.3!1651.130

3

May-06 71.711 6026.263

502.1

6 2102.!31 700.!77

"#$-06 6%%.52 63%3.23252.602

7 2130.67!710.226

3

"#&-06 70%.! 6677.535556.%61

3 206.136!.3!%

3

A#'-06 751.37! 7022.7!!55.233

3 2100.51700.23

7

S(p-06 2.3%5 73!!.166616.5!7

2 22%.61% 761.53

O)*-06 77.75 751.516 65%.2!3 2%57.%7% 1!.15

N+,-06 !3.2 2!7.001

6!1.%16

25!!.!15

66.63

3

()-06 !!!.32 60.3573.365

% 2770.! !23.63

"a$-07 10.!3 !%61.017.%23

% 2!2.033 !!%.011

F(-07 1005.%3% !!7.3%%2%.77

7 30!3.6%71031.21

6

Mar-07 7.731 1006!.2%13!.103

% 23.05!61.01!

3

Apr-07 76!.1 10071.0353!.252

! 2563.3%55%.%%

3

May-07 16.16 1016!.1%%7.%2

3 237%.7277!1.575

7

"#$-07 22.!61 103%7.51! 62.2!3 2%0.!57 02.!5



35/70


3 7

"#&-07 !26.16 1056.7!70.733

1 2565.!%5 55.315

A#'-07 !1.!56 1070!.37%

!2.%%7

26%1.05

0.361

7

S(p-07 1006.773 107.02!07.316

22%.!7!%1.632

3

O)*-07 105.3! 1106.!1!22.%07

6 2!57.56 !5.56

N+,-07 !!3.% 1116.%71!30.705

! 305!.012101!.67

1

()-07 !.63% 11157.75!2!.15

% 30%0.731013.62

%

"a$-0 !02.37 10!71.72!!1%.310

2%.71!61.623

7

F(-0 76.!23 10%3.21 !03.6015 276.3!% !22.7!

Mar-0 27.036 101.523!06.7!3

6 2606.7!6 6.!32

Apr-0 7!3.605 10!05.!% !0.2! 2%!7.56%32.521

3

May-0 6.72 10777.!1%!.15!

5 230!.%2376!.07

7

"#$-0 611.366 10566.31!0.526

6 20!3.7536!7.!17

7

"#&-0 570.775 10210.!2650.!10

5 170.!23 623.6%1

A#'-0 607.677 !!26.6%727.220

6 17!.1 5!6.606

S(p-0 563.!35 !%3.0!7!0.317

% 17%2.3750.7!5

7

O)*-0 %07.06 32.03736.002

5 157.672 526.22%

N+,-0 321.511 160.1%160.011

12!2.506%30.35

3

()-0 336.%5 750.352 625.6!6 1065.%16355.13

7

"a$-0! 3!.6!2 6!!5.207

52.!33

! 10%.0%

3%!.3%!

3

F(-0! %22.%76 65%0.765%5.063

3 11%!.01333.00%

3

Mar-0! %!.%7 6203.211516.!3%

3 1301.655 %33.5

Apr-0! 555.0 5!65.%1%%!7.117

1%67.771 %!.257

May-0! 623.677 5!00.30!%!1.6!2

% 166.!72 556.32%

"#$-0! 715.513 600%.%56500.371

3 1!%.!! 631.666

"#&-0! 7%6.%! 610.17

515.01%

2 205.67!

6!5.226

3A#'-0! 7%5.221 6317.71% 526.%76 2207.223 735.7%1



36/70


2

S(p-0! 757.127 6510.!065%2.575

5 22%.377%!.612

3

O)*-0! 0!.7%5 6!13.5!1

576.132

6 2312.0!3

770.6!7

7

N+,-0! 76!.115 7361.1!5613.%32

! 2335.!777.662

3

()-0! !20.0%5 7!%%.3!5662.032

! 2%!.!0532.!6

3

"a$-10 !73.6 52.571710.71%

3 2663.02 7.676

F(-10 !!3.275 !0!!.3775.20

27.1 !62.3!6

Mar-10 1110.1 !71!.!30!.!!

6 3077.2%31025.7%

RSI

MONTH


Apr-05 355.1%

May-05 337.!6 17.15%

"#$-05 327.613 10.373

"#&-05 370.57 %2.!7%

A#'-05 %06.115 35.52

S(p-05 %51.!7 %5.63

O)*-05 %25.% 26.57

N+,-05 %%.335 22.!35()-05 %35.!36 12.3!!



37/70


"a$-06 %.1!7 52.261

F(-06 56!.171 0.!7%

Mar-06 616.3% %7.663

Apr-06 767.36 150.552

May-06 71.711 %.675

"#$-06 6%%.52 7%.12!

SUM %7.75 1!.30

AVERAGE31.!166

712.6205

3

RS2.52!%

RSI 71.662!%

MONTH


"#&-06 70%.!

A#'-06 751.37! %6.%!

S(p-06 2.3%5 76.!66

O)*-06 77.75 %!.%05

N+,-06 !3.2 16.07

()-06 !!!.32 105.5"a$-07 10.!3 !.573

F(-07 1005.%3% 3.%5!

Mar-07 7.731216.70

3

Apr-07 76!.1 1!.551

May-07 16.16 %7.636

"#$-07 22.!61 6.1%5

"#&-07 !26.16103.20

7

A#'-07 !1.!56 3%.212

S(p-07 1006.77311%.1

7

SUM 655.0353.!2

5

AVERAGE%3.7205

3 23.5!5

RS1.52!5

RSI

6%.!%6

6



38/70


MONTH


O)*-07 105.3!

N+,-07 !!3.% 65.%3!

()-07 !.63% %.766

"a$-0 !02.37 5.7!7

F(-0 76.!23 25.!1%

Mar-0 27.036 %!.7

Apr-0 7!3.605 33.%31

May-0 6.7210%.2

3

"#$-0 611.366 77.%16

"#&-0 570.775 %0.5!1

A#'-0 607.677 36.!02

S(p-0 563.!35 %3.7%2

O)*-0 %07.06156.7

5

N+,-0 321.511 5.5%!

()-0 336.%5 15.33%

SUM 52.236 77%.23

AVERAGE 3.%2%51.6153

3

RS0.067%6

RSI6.32037

7

MONT

H

CLOSING

PRICE GAIN LOSS"a$-0! 3!.6!2



39/70


F(-0! %22.%76 32.7%

Mar-0! %!.%7 67.011

Apr-0! 555.0 66.321

May-0! 623.677 67.6!"#$-0! 715.513 !1.36

"#&-0! 7%6.%! 30.!76

A#'-0! 7%5.221 1.26

S(p-0! 757.127 11.!06

O)*-0! 0!.7%5 52.61

N+,-0! 76!.115 %0.63

()-0! !20.0%5 150.!3

"a$-10 !73.6 53.23

F(-10 !!3.275 1!.%07

Mar-10 1110.1 116.25

SUM 762.306 %1.!

AVERAGE 50.20% 2.7!32

RS1.1!%3

3

RSI !%.7!



40/70


8= Utratec': *OEING AERAGE


n the above chart, V axis indicates month and the R axis indicates theprice of scrip.

n the above chart, -uecolor indicates closin% price.Re!colorindicates lon% term movin% avera%e i.e.,Kmonths !S/.


n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%eindicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "esi%nal is%enerated durin% :anuary, October & December.

Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibilityof the further rise. 9ence, the -uysi%nal is %enerated durin% :uly &

@ovember.

The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from :une to :anuary.




41/70


This chart is similar to previous chart but it is lon% term movin%avera%e.

n the above chart, -uecolor indicates closin% price.Re!colorindicates lon% term movin% avera%e i.e., ;Amonths !S/.


n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%eindicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "esi%nal is%enerated durin% December,& :anuary.

Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibilityof the further rise. 9ence, the -uysi%nal is %enerated durin% :uly, !ay& :anuary.

The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from :uly to :anuary.



42/70


GRASI*

*OING AERAGE

MONTHS CLOSING

SUM OF 12MONTHS AVG

SUM OF 3MONTHS AVG

Apr-05 1205.62

May-05 1135.2

"#$-05 10!7.57 3%3.%!5 11%6.165

"#&-05 1112.!15 33%5.72 1115.26067

A#'-05 1273.2%1 3%3.7%3 1161.2%767

S(p-05 1335.712 3721.6 12%0.62267

O)*-05 1206.03 31%.!!1 1271.66367

N+,-05 125.0! 326.% 1275.616

()-05 1370.511 361.6%7 127.21567"a$-06 1%36.01 %0!1.627 1363.7567

F(-06 1612.16 %%1!.3%5 1%73.115

Mar-06 1!16.51 15!7.362 1332.202 %!65.352 1655.11733

Apr-06 227.231 1705!.!65 1%21.663 507.565 1!35.55

May-06 2131.03% 1055.71! 150%.6%33 6325.73 210.5!%33

"#$-06 1761.%%6 171!.57 155!.!6% 6170.711 2056.!0367

"#&-06 1!6!.61% 1!576.277 1631.356% 562.0!% 1!5%.03133

A#'-06 212.%%3 20%5.%7! 1707.1233 5!13.503 1!71.16767

S(p-06 2%00.336 21550.103 17!5.%1! 6552.3!3 21%.131

O)*-06 261%.23 22!5.3% 1!13.1!57 71!7.062 23!!.02067N+,-06 2725.2%3 2%3!.%!3 2033.207 773!.62 257!.!5%

()-06 2720.5 257%.562 21%5.7135 060.106 266.702

"a$-07 232.57 271%5.11% 2262.0!2 27.3!3 275!.%6%33

F(-07 2626.07 215.35 23%6.5321 17!.237 2726.%1233

Mar-07 202.% 232%.707 2360.3!23 75%1.%!7 2513.3233

Apr-07 22!!.265 23%5.7%1 2362.1%51 700.1!2 2336.06%

May-07 2%!0.26 270%.!!3 23!2.02 672.3!1 22!0.7!7

"#$-07 2%5!.233 2!%02.7 2%50.2317 72%.7% 2%16.26133

"#&-07 263.0! 302!6.255 252%.67! 712.60 260%.20267

A#'-07 25!.!11 30!73.723 251.1%36 12.233 2727.%11

S(p-07 3267.263 31%0.65 2653.375 !!0.263 2!!6.75%33

O)*-07 366%.025 32!0.3!2 27%0.66 !7!1.1!! 3263.733

N+,-07 3675.!% 33%1.0!7 220.0!1% 10607.236 3535.7%533

()-07 3670.%2% 3%7!0.!%1 2!!.2%51 11010.3!7 3670.13233

"a$-0 3266.77 35225.15 2!35.%2! 10613.15! 3537.71!67

F(-0 263.657 35%62.72 2!55.2273 !00.6 3266.!56

Mar-0 2731.006 36110.!% 300!.2%12 61.%5 2!53.1667

Apr-0 250.!0 363!2.537 3032.711% 175.571 2725.1!033

May-0 223.3 3616.0! 3015.507% 75!5.752 2531.!1733

"#$-0 2152.317 357!.173 2!!.!311 7017.063 233!.021

"#&-0 1752.%65 3%76.5%! 2!7.37!1 61.62 2062.7333



43/70


A#'-0 1!.5!3 33!7.231 22%.76!3 5!3.375 1!6%.%533

S(p-0 1!22.3%3 32552.311 2712.6!26 5663.%01 17.0033

O)*-0 1336.15 30225.101 251.75% 52%7.751 17%!.25033

N+,-0 !%%.76 27%!%.02! 22!1.16!1 %20%.03% 1%01.3%%67()-0 1116.236 2%!3!.%1 207.3201 33!7.!27 1132.6%233

"a$-0! 12%6.0!3 22!1!.1%7 1!0!.!2! 3307.205 1102.%0167

F(-0! 1356.253 21%11.7%3 17%.311! 371.52 123!.52733

Mar-0! 1%72.303 20153.0% 167!.%2 %07%.6%! 135.21633

Apr-0! 16%5.506 1!217.63 1601.%6! %%7%.062 1%!1.35%

May-0! 1!6.71 1!20.51 1576.70!2 510%.51! 1701.50633

"#$-0! 2325.5! 1!0!3.72 15!1.1%5 5!57.05 1!5.!35

"#&-0! 2603.763 1!!%5.0 1662.0! 6!16.062 2305.35%

A#'-0! 2655.73 20612.27 1717.6!2 755.135 252.3733

S(p-0! 2720.265 21%10.1!2 17%.127 7!7!.11 265!.!37O)*-0! 23%2.10 22%15.%5 167.!571 771.156 2572.7167

N+,-0! 225.3 23755.!!7 1!7!.666% 73%7.761 2%%!.25367

()-0! 2%1.3 2505.5!! 20.2166 70%6.33% 23%.77

"a$-10 2701.!%5 2651%.%51 220!.5376 7%06.171 2%6.72367

F(-10 2663.123 2721.321 231.%%3% 773.!06 25!%.63533

Mar-10 2%.76 2!1!7.77 2%33.1%2 213.2 2737.!%267

RSI

MONTH


Apr-05 1205.62

May-05 1135.2 70.3%

"#$-05 10!7.57 37.6!3

"#&-05 1112.!15 15.32

A#'-05 1273.2%1 160.326

S(p-05 1335.712 62.%71

O)*-05 1206.0312!.67

%

N+,-05 125.0! 7!.06

()-05 1370.511 5.%13

"a$-06 1%36.01 65.507

F(-06 1612.16176.7!

Mar-06 1!16.51

303.70

2Apr-06 227.231 361.71



44/70


3

May-06 2131.03%1%7.1!

7

"#$-06 1761.%%6

36!.5

SUM1310.31

75%.5

AVERAGE7.35%5

3 50.3

RS1.73667

1

RSI63.%5!2

5

MONHCLOSINGPRICE GAIN LOSS

"#&-06 1!6!.61%

A#'-06 212.%%3212.2

!

S(p-06 2%00.336217.!

3

O)*-06 261%.23213.!%

7

N+,-06 2725.2%3 110.!6

()-06 2720.5 %.663

"a$-07 232.57 111.!!

F(-07 2626.07206.%

3

Mar-07 202.%5%3.2%

7

Apr-07 22!!.265216.%2

5

May-07 2%!0.261!1.02

1

"#$-07 2%5!.233 31.053

"#&-07 263.0!%03.5

6

A#'-07 25!.!11 3.17

S(p-07 3267.263%07.35

2

SUM206.27

3 7.62%

AVERAGE13!.0%

!52.57%!

3



45/70


RS 2.6%5%6

RSI72.566

2

MONTH


O)*-07 366%.025

N+,-07 3675.!% 11.!23

()-07 3670.%2% 5.52%

"a$-0 3266.77%03.63

7

F(-0 263.657 %03.13

Mar-0 2731.006132.65

1

Apr-0 250.!0150.0!

May-0 223.3 2!7.07

"#$-0 2152.317131.52

1

"#&-0 1752.%653!!.5

2

A#'-0 1!.5!3236.12

S(p-0 1!22.3%3 66.25

O)*-0 1336.15

55.52

N+,-0 !%%.763!1.!3

!

()-0 1116.236 171.36

SUM %1!.%11 2!67.2

AVERAGE

27.!6073

1!7.133

RS

0.1%13%

!RSI

12.3%3

MONTH


"a$-0! 12%6.0!3

F(-0! 1356.253 110.16

Mar-0! 1%72.303 116.05

Apr-0! 16%5.506

173.20

3May-0! 1!6.71 3%1.20



46/70


%

"#$-0! 2325.5!33.7

!

"#&-0! 2603.763

27.17

%

A#'-0! 2655.73 52.02

S(p-0! 2720.265 6%.%2

O)*-0! 23%2.1037.15

7

N+,-0! 225.3 56.72

()-0! 2%1.3 133.%5

"a$-10 2701.!%523.10

7

F(-10 2663.123 3.22

Mar-10 2%.7615.63

7

SUM2076.36

6 %73.6!!

AVERAGE13.%2%

%31.57!!

3

RS%.3330

2

RSI1.%2%0

%

2= GRASI*:




47/70



n the above chart, -uecolor indicates closin% price.Re!colorindicates lon% term movin% avera%e i.e., K months !S/.


n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%eindicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "esi%nal is%enerated durin% December, October & :une.

Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibility

of the further rise. 9ence, the -uysi%nal is %enerated durin% :uly,may ,& 'u%ust

"rom :anuary to October there is a risin% trend and from !arch toDecember there is a fallin% trend.


This chart is similar to previous chart but it is lon% term movin%avera%e.



48/70


n the above chart, -uecolor indicates closin% price.Re!colorindicates lon% term movin% avera%e i.e., ;A months !S/.


n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%eindicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "esi%nal is%enerated durin% 'u%ust, October and :une.

Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibilityof the further rise. 9ence, the -uysi%nal is %enerated durin% !arch &:anuary.

The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from !ay to October.

The movin% avera%e is continuously fallin% in the month of !arch to:anuary..

BIRLA SU)ER

*OING AERAGE

MONTH

CLOSINGPRICE

SUM OF 12MONTHS AVG

SUM OF 3MONTHS AVG

Apr-06 6.23

May-06 6!.17!

"#$-06 52.503 1!.!6563.3216

7

"#&-06 51.657 2%1.6220.5%06

7

A#'-06 55.%11 22.75 76.25

S(p-06 5%.!6! 21%.5%71.5133

3

O)*-06 5%.7!5 216.3272.2773

3

N+,-06 %.2%3 213.%171.13!3

3

()-06 %5.22 203.2! 67.763

"a$-07 5%.077 202.3!7

67.%656

7F(-07 50.102 1!7.70% 65.!013



49/70


3

Mar-07 %3. 6%.3!5%.032%

2 1!3.3%!6%.%%!6

7

Apr-07 50.2 630.306 52.5255 1!.267 66.0!

May-07 51.675 612.0251.066

3 1!5.6565.23

3

"#$-07 56.03 616.32!51.3607

5 201.7!367.26%3

3

"#&-07 56.1! 620.62 51.735 21%.0!5 71.365

A#'-07 50.5! 616.0%151.3367

5 21%.%5 71.%!5

S(p-07 56.5!2 617.66% 51.%72 21!.%02 73.13%

O)*-07 5!.5 622.36!51.6%0

222.727%.2!06

7

N+,-07 76.%2 650.5%6

5%.2121

7 2%3.102 1.03%

F(-0 71.7 676.!6%56.%136

7 26%.212.0706

7

Mar-0 5!.616 62.50356.752

5 267.236!.076

7

Apr-0 75.3%7 707.7% 5.!7! 23.03 !%.361

May-0 73.035 736.!561.%07!

2 27!.6!!3.2326

7

"#$-0 67.%3 75%.1762.%1

7 275.%1 !1.27

"#&-0 63.!73 766.%76 63.73 27!.3

!3.27!3

3

A#'-0 71.05 71.%!665.12%6

7 275.5%1 !1.%7

S(p-0 63.76 7!.1265.7651

7 266.32 .7!%

O)*-0 %2.727 71.31!65.10!!

2 2%1.626 0.5%2

N+,-0 31.63 756.5!63.0%!1

7 20!.5166!.36

7

()-0 31.03 72.1260.6766

7 16!.%!656.%!6

7

"a$-0! 33.0%5 6%.7%5

57.0620

13.665

%6.2216

7

F(-0! 33.355 6%6.%53.666

7 12!.2!3%3.0!76

7

Mar-0! 33.%62 620.2%651.671

7 130.!2%3.6306

7

Apr-0! %3.1!7 5.0!6 %!.00 1%3.05!%7.663

3

May-0! 52.15 567.2%6 %7.2705 162.1!!5%.0663

3

"#$-0! 63.%2 563.13%6.!31!

2 1!2.26% 6%.0

"#&-0! 5.56 55.066 %6.5055 217.6572.5526

7



50/70


A#'-0! 66.2!2 553.30 %6.10! 2%0.753 0.251

S(p-0! 75.35 56%.72%7.0651

7 263.!17.!726

7

O)*-0! 7.135 600.1!

50.015

3 27.633

!2.776

7

N+,-0! 77.77 6%6.20%53.503

3 2!7.65% !!.21

()-0! 1.361 6!6.5355.0%%5

312.723 10%.2%1

"a$-10 !.!52 753.%%262.76

3 327.32510!.10

3

F(-10 72.!% 7!3.02766.055

322.13107.376

7

Mar-10 72.23 32.36!.3656

7 317.076 105.6!2

RSI

MONTH


Apr-06 6.23

May-06 6!.17! 0.!6

"#$-06 52.503 16.676

"#&-06 51.657 0.%6

A#'-06 55.%11 3.75%

S(p-06 5%.!6! 0.%%2

O)*-06 5%.7!5 0.17%

N+,-06 %.2%3 6.552

()-06 %5.22 2.!61

"a$-07 5%.077 .7!5

F(-07 50.102 3.!75

Mar-07 %3. 6.21%



51/70


MONTH


Apr-07 50.2

May-07 51.675 1.%75

"#$-07 56.03 %.355

"#&-07 56.1! 0.16

A#'-07 50.5! 5.6

S(p-07 56.5!2 6.002

O)*-07 5!.5 2.!0

N+,-07 76.%2 16.!2F(-0 71.7 %.72

Mar-0 5!.616 12.0%

SUM 31.2 22.%0%

AVERAGE 3.12 2.2%0%

RS

1.%2022

RSI 5.62


SUM 13.%%5 37.%

AVERAGE

1.120%17

0.51733

RS

2.163663

RSI 6.3!

51


52/70


MONT

H

CLOSING

PRICE GAIN LOSS

Apr-0 75.3%7

May-0 73.035 2.312

"#$-0 67.%3 5.552

"#&-0 63.!73 3.51

A#'-0 71.05 7.077

S(p-0 63.76 7.17%

O)*-0 %2.727 21.1%!

N+,-0 31.63 10.6%

()-0 31.03 0.33

"a$-0! 33.0%5 2.015

F(-0! 33.355 0.31

Mar-0! 33.%62 0.107

SUM !.50! 50.561

AVERAGE

0.7!2%17

%.213%17

RS 0.107

RSI

15.2!

MONT

H

CLOSING

PRICE GAIN LOSS

Apr-0! %3.1!7

May-0! 52.15 .!

"#$-0! 63.%2 11.235

"#&-0! 5.56 %.56%

A#'-0! 66.2!2 7.%36

S(p-0! 75.35 !.05

O)*-0! 7.135 2.75



53/70


N+,-0! 77.77 0.25

()-0! 1.361 3.%%

"a$-10 !.!52 .5!1

F(-10 72.!% 17.012

Mar-10 72.23 0.117

BIRLA SUPER

MOVING AVERAGE


SUM %2.!6 21.!51

AVERAGE

3.52167

1.2!25

RS

1.!5271

RSI

66.1!6%7

53


54/70


Short term moving average

n the above chart WV axis sho)s the months and WR axis sho)s the price

scrip

n the above chart Blue colour indicates the closin% Price and red sho)s theavera%e

n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%e indicates thepossibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "esi%nal is %enerated in "ebruary andDecember

Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibilityof the further rise. 9ence, the -uysi%nal is %enerated 'u%ust and

'pril.

The movin% avera%e continuously fallin% in :uly and December

The !ovin% avera%e continuously risin% in 'pril and December

Long term



55/70


This chart is similar to previous chart but it is lon% term movin% avera%e.

n the above chart, -uecolor indicates closin% price.Re!color indicates lon%term movin% avera%e i.e., ;>months !S/.


n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%e indicates thepossibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "esi%nal is %enerated durin% 'pril,&December.

Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibility of thefurther rise. 9ence, the -uysi%nal is %enerated durin% 'u%ust, &,'pril

The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from 'pril to December

A*BUFA CE*ENT



56/70


*OING AERAGE

M0NTHCLOSINGPRICE

SUM OF 12MONTHS AVG

SUM OF 3MONTHS AVG

Apr-05 %1!.!07

May-05 %60.1!7

"#$-05 2!!.5! 117!.6!3 3!3.231

"#&-05 61.!7 21.756 273.!17

A#'-05 110.33 15%1.! 513.!63

S(p-05 71.7%0% 131%.0%0% %3.0135

O)*-05 71.0%25 1323.112! %%1.0376

N+,-05 77.075 21!.70% 73.2!013

()-05 1.0312 22!.1612 76.3727"a$-06 .11 2%6.22!32 2.076%%

F(-06 6.%605 255.60232 5.20077

Mar-06 !6.1 2!!%.3%6722%!.52

! 271.%515 !0.%33

Apr-06 11%.377 26.167222%.06

1 2!7.715 !!.23!5

May-06 106.1205 233%.7%0221!%.561

7 317.375 105.7!2

"#$-06 !1.!06 2127.05722177.25%

312.%035 10%.13%5

"#&-06 103.311! 216.3!!1210.6!!

! 301.33% 100.%%61

A#'-06 10!.1% 10!7.20!12!1.%3%0

! 30%.357! 101.%526

S(p-06 115.12% 11%0.5!272!5.0%!3

! 327.575! 10!.1!2

O)*-06 120.5!5 11!0.1%522!!.177

7 3%%.5! 11%.!53

N+,-06 13%.7523 12%7.1002103.!%

2 370.%713 123.%!0%

()-06 13.!25 1305.703210.0

6 3!%.2723 131.%2%1

"a$-07 1%1.05 135.672113.223

2 %1%.7623 13.25%1

F(-07 133.355 1%05.5727117.131

1 %13.365 137.73

Mar-07 107.%%7 1%16.13711.011

6 31.7 127.2!57

Apr-07 111.!52 1%13.7137117.0!

5 352.75% 117.5%7

May-07 11.7 1%26.373211.6%

% 33.17! 112.7263

"#$-07 11%.16! 1%%.6362

120.71!

7 3%%.!01 11%.!67"#&-07 130.27 1%76.1513 123.012 363.776 121.257



57/70


6

A#'-07 12!.!6 1%!6.!!7312%.7%!

37%.!2 12%.!!%

S(p-07 1%3.527 1525.%003

127.116

7 %0%.3% 13%.7

O)*-07 1%6.11% 1551.616712!.301

% %20.32%% 1%0.101

N+,-07 1%7.0!0! 1563.!553130.32!

6 %37.%2!3 1%5.0!

()-07 1%.!5 1573.!1! 131.16 %%2.7!1 1%7.5!73

"a$-0 131.1! 156%.653130.37

%27.7!!% 1%2.5!!

F(-0 11.73 1550.03612!.16!

7 3!!.%%65 133.1%

Mar-0 121.53 156%.11!

130.3%3

3 372.07 12%.02!

Apr-0 116.762 156.!2!130.7%%

2 357.03 11!.01

May-0 106.7 1557.01!12!.751

7 3%5.162 115.05%

"#$-0 5.5% 152.3!0127.365

! 30!.172 103.0573

"#&-0 7!.3! 1%76.!52123.07!

% 271.7!! !0.5!!67

A#'-0 3.3!7 1%30.363 11!.1!7 2%.326 2.77533

S(p-0 1.602 136.%311%.036

6 2%%.3 1.%6267

O)*-0 61.025 122.652%106.7

7 226.02% 75.3%133

N+,-0 56.%02 11!1.!635!!.3302

! 1!!.02! 66.3%3

()-0 6%.%!2 1107.566!2.2!71

7 11.!1! 60.63!67

"a$-0! 70.5 10%6.3277.1!3!

2 1!1.%7% 63.2%67

F(-0! 70.226 !!7.153.1512

5 205.2! 6.%3267

Mar-0! 6.2 !%%.565

7.7137

5 20!.06 6!.6!533

Apr-0! 7.!26 !06.72!75.5607

5 217.%32 72.%7733

May-0! 3.!55 3.1%73.6511

7 231.161 77.05367

"#$-0! !5.5!3 !3.677%.%!

2 25.%7% 6.15

"#&-0! !6.17 !10.656 75. 275.726 !1.!067

A#'-0! 101.50% !2.76377.3!6!

2 2!3.275 !7.7533

S(p-0! !!.23 !%6.3!1

7.65!

2 2!6.!12 !.!7067O)*-0! !3.5%5 !7.!11 1.575! 2!%.27! !.0!3



58/70


2

N+,-0! 7.2%5 100!.75%%.1%61

7 20.02 !3.3%

()-0! !7. 10%3.15

6.!2!1

7 27.67 !2.!267

"a$-10 101.035 1073.605!.%670

26.16 !5.3!33

F(-10 10!.222 1112.601!2.7167

5 30.1%5 102.715

Mar-10 115.5!7 115!.!1!6.65!

3 325.5% 10.61

RSI

M0NTH


Apr-05 %1!.!07

May-05 %60.1!7 %0.2!

"#$-05 2!!.5!160.60

"#&-05 61.!7237.61

!

A#'-05 110.33111.3

6

S(p-05 71.7%0%110.5

!



59/70


O)*-05 71.0%25 0.6!7!

N+,-05 77.075 6.0%5

()-05 1.03123.!%%3

2

"a$-06 .117.071

F(-06 6.%605 1.6%!5

Mar-06 !6.110.%20

5

Apr-06 11%.377 17.%!6

May-06 106.1205 .2565

"#$-06 !1.!061%.21%

5

SUM

1203.63%

1531.635

AVERAGE

0.2%227 102.10!

RS

0.75%!

RSI

%%.00%22

MONT

H

CLOSING

PRICE GAIN LOSS"#&-06 103.311!

A#'-06 10!.1% 5.21

S(p-06 115.12% 5.!%

O)*-06 120.5!5 5.%71

N+,-06 13%.75231%.157

3

()-06 13.!25 %.1727

"a$-07 1%1.05 2.16

F(-07 133.355 7.73

Mar-07 107.%%7 25.!0Apr-07 111.!52 %.505

May-07 11.7 6.2

"#$-07 11%.16! %.611

"#&-07 130.27 16.65

A#'-07 12!.!6 0.%1

S(p-07 1%3.527 13.5%1

SUM 7!.3051 3!.0!

AVERAGE

5.27007 2.606



60/70


RS

2.0272

RSI 66.!

MONTH


O)*-07 1%6.11%

N+,-07 1%7.0!0! 0.27!5

()-07 1%.!5 1.7!6

"a$-0 131.1!17.070

5

F(-0 11.73 13.01

Mar-0 121.53 2.7!2

Apr-0 116.762 %.76

May-0 106.7 !.!2

"#$-0 5.5% 21.33

"#&-0 7!.3! 6.151

A#'-0 3.3!7 %.00

S(p-0 1.602 1.7!5

O)*-0 61.025 20.577

N+,-0 56.%02 %.623

()-0 6%.%!2 .0!

SUM 16.!61 !!.275

AVERAGE

1.131207

6.61!167

RS

0.170!!

RSI 1%.5!5

The Administrative management college, Bangalore. $


61/70


SUM 61.576 16.55!

AVERAGE

%.105067

1.103!33

RS

3.7152

RSI 7.07


MONTH


"a$-0! 70.5

F(-0! 70.226 0.35%

Mar-0! 6.2 1.!%6

Apr-0! 7.!26 10.6%6

May-0! 3.!55 5.02!

"#$-0! !5.5!3 11.63

"#&-0! !6.17 0.55

A#'-0! 101.50% 5.326

S(p-0! !!.23 2.27%

O)*-0! !3.5%5 5.65

N+,-0! 7.2%5 6.3

()-0! !7. 10.6%3

"a$-10 101.035 3.1%7

F(-10 10!.222 .17

Mar-10 115.5!7 6.375

1


62/70


AMBUJA CEMENT

MOVING AVERAGE

Short term



63/70



n the above chart, -uecolor indicates closin% price.Re!color

indicates lon% term movin% avera%e i.e.,Kmonths !S/.


n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%eindicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "esi%nal is%enerated durin% :une,:uly, 'u%ust

Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibilityof the further rise. 9ence, the -uysi%nal is %enerated durin% !ay eptember.

The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from :uly to #eptember.

Long term


n the above chart, -uecolor indicates closin% price.Re!colorindicates lon% term movin% avera%e i.e.,;Amonths !S/.




64/70


n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%eindicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "esi%nal is%enerated durin% ,:uly &, 'u%ust

Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibilityof the further rise. 9ence, the -uysi%nal is %enerated durin% !ay eptember.

The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from :uly to #eptember.

3 Summary $& .in!in+"4 Su++e"ti$n" 5 C$ncu"i$n:

.INDINGSACC:

n the chart, movin% avera%e short term & lon% term/ )as fluctuatin% month

by month. t )as risin% from :uly to October & fallin% from november to

:anuary.

Durin% the month of 'pril the shares )ere overbou%ht, so it is the ri%ht time to

sell the share.

Durin% the month of :anuary the shares )ere oversold, so it is ri%ht time to

buy the share

GRASI*:



65/70


The movin% avera%e of K months & ;A months, sho)s t sho)s risin% trend

from December to October. t sho)s fallin% trend from @ovember to :anuary.

The :anuary month )as overbou%ht re%ion the investor can sell the scrip.

The !arch month )as over sold re%ion, the investor can buy the scri.

ULTRATECH:

The movin% avera%e of K months & ;A months )as risin% from 'pril to

December. t )as fallin% from October to :anuary.

The 'pril !onth )as overbou%ht re%ion the investor can sell the scrip.

The :anuary month )as oversold, re%ion, the investor can buy the scrip.

BIRLA SU)ER:


December. t )as fallin% from !ay to December.

The December !onth )as overbou%ht re%ion the investor can sell the scrip.

The #eptember month )as oversold, re%ion, the investor can buy the scrip.



66/70


A*BUFA:


December. t )as fallin% from !ay to December.

The 'u%ust !onth )as overbou%ht re%ion the investor can sell the scrip.

The :une month )as oversold, re%ion, the investor can buy the scrip.

SUGGESTIONS

t is very difficult for an investor to select any scrip for investment in stock

market. Before investin%, the investor should %o for a detailed study of the

scrip, )hich includesE "undamental analysis of the company & its return for

past K years.

ACC

'ccordin% !ovin%-'vera%e, the prices of the scrip is fallin% from October to

:anuary & the #hort-Term 'vera%e intersect in :une #o, in future the investor

is been advised to sell the share.

'ccordin% to *elative #tren%th ndex *#/, the *# lies bet)een ?> &

re%ion & is been in decreasin% trend. There fore in future the prices may come

do)n very drastically, so investor is been advised to sell the share.



67/70


GRASI*


:anuary & the #hort-Term 'vera%e intersect in :une so, in future the investor


'ccordin% to *elative #tren%th ndex *#/, the *# lies bet)een NK & ?;

re%ion & is been in increasin% trend. There fore in future the prices may come

up very drastically, so investor is been advised to buy the share.

ULTRATECH:


:anuary & the #hort-Term 'vera%e intersect in une #o, in future the investor


'ccordin% to *elative #tren%th ndex *#/, the *# lies bet)een NI &


68/70


'ccordin% to *elative #tren%th ndex *#/, the *# lies bet)een ? & NN

re%ion & is been in decreasin% trend. There fore in future the prices may come

do)n very drastically, so investor is been advised to sell the share.

A*BUFA:

'ccordin% !ovin%-'vera%e, the prices of the scrip is fallin% from :uly to

#eptember & the #hort-Term 'vera%e intersect in october #o, in future the

investor is been advised to sell the share. 'ccordin% to *elative #tren%th ndex *#/, the *# lies bet)een II & =?

re%ion & is been in increasin% trend. Therefore in future the prices may come

up very drastically, so investor is been advised to buy the share.

CONCLUSION

n ndian scenario the investments are spread over Bank Deposits, #avin%s 0ertificate,

Post Office, 2$uity !arkets and the latest !utual "und. #ince !utual "unds are

subect to market risk the investor take help of advisory services for financial

plannin% )hich helps the investor to take calculated risk. Technical analysis is a %ood

indicator that sho)s the trend movement as )ell as the varyin% de%ree of movin%

avera%e movement, *ate of chan%e and *elative stren%th indicates. Technical analysis

may be used for more than supplement of fundamental analysis.

The recent correction in the stock market has left many investors unsettled. t is $uite

common to see many investors movin% to side lines every time the market turns

volatile or corrects itself. t is sure as the market starts rallyin% a%ain, some of them

)ill move back $uickly but )ould be )illin% to move out even more $uickly at the

next si%n of do)nside volatility.

The Administrative management college, Bangalore. "


69/70


Technical analysis can offer %reat insi%ht, but if used improperly, they can also

produce false si%nals. +hile trend lines have become a very popular aspect of

technical analysis, they are merely one tool for establishin%, analyzin%, and

confirmin% a trend. Trend lines should not be the final arbiter, but should serve merely

as a )arnin% that a chan%e in trend may be very useful.

n this proect, the market is fallin% tremendously in the month of :une & :uly. #o, the

tools )hich )ere used also sho)in% the do)n)ard trend. +e can predict that the

investor can sell the share.

BIBLIOGRA)HY:

Re&erence B$$%"3

#ecurity 'nalysis & Portfolio !ana%ement

--By. Punithavathy Pandian.

nvestment 'nalysis and Portfolio !ana%ement

--By. Prasanna 0handra

#ecurity 'nalysis & Portfolio !ana%ement

--By. "ischer and :ordan

"inancial !ana%ement

--By. !. R. han & P. . :ain

The Administrative management college, Bangalore. #


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0e-"ite"3

))).nseindia.com ))).stockcharts.com

))).)ikipedia.com

))).acclimited.com

))).%rasim.com

))).ultratechcement.com
http://www.wikipedia.com/http://www.acclimited.com/http://www.grasim.com/http://www.wikipedia.com/http://www.acclimited.com/http://www.grasim.com/

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