me quarterly property sentiment snapshot. · the me quarterly property sentiment report provides...

ME quarterly property sentiment snapshot.Quarterly insights into how Australians feel about the residential property market.

SIXTH SURVEY, Q3 JUNE 2020

ME QUARTERLY PROPERTY SENTIMENT SNAPSHOT | 2

About this snapshotThe ME Quarterly Property Sentiment Report provides timely insights into the sentiment of Australians towards the residential property market based on a survey of 1,000 Australian adults in the property market who do not work in the market research or public relations industries.

The survey is designed, developed and produced quarterly by industry super fund-owned bank ME with fieldwork conducted by Pure Profile.

This edition presents the findings from the sixth edition – Q3 of the 2020 calendar year, conducted in June 2020.

The report tracks changes overtime in property sentiment and in doing so, highlights the ongoing – and potentially shifting – differences between ages, locations, property status, intentions and experiences in terms of:

• overall property market sentiment • price expectations • impacts on future property plans • impacts on finances, wealth, and savings behaviour • perceived worries and opportunities • impact of recent events For analysis, the sample is broken down into investors, owner occupiers and first home buyers in the following proportions to provide accurate results within each cohort:

• 555 – Owner occupied property owners • 369 – Investment property owners • 225 - First home buyers The data has been weighted to be nationally representative across age, gender, and location.

For further information.Matthew Read General Manager Communications

T 0432 130 338 E [email protected]

Level 28, 360 Elizabeth Street Melbourne, VIC 3000 Australia

mebank.com.au


Overall property sentimentPositive property sentiment increased six percentage points in June (Q3) compared to April (Q2) this year. Sentiment varies by age, property status and property intentions.

Figure 1. Overall property sentimentOverall, how do you feel about the property market?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

37

3535

28

42

33

26

42

34

24

4144 44

29

27

39

20 21

■ Neutral ■ Positive ■ Negative

Q22019

Q32019

Q42019

Q12020

Q22020

Q32020


0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Owner occupier

Investor

First Home Buyer

■ Positive ■ Neutral ■ Negative

35 44 2146 32 2246 40 14

44 29 2740 34 26

27 38 3530 37 33

32 35 33

31 43 26

51 30 1945 38 17

26 49 24

29 44 27

34 35 30

36 48 16

32 41 27

37 40 23

27 38 35Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

21 51 28

35 28 37

48 32 19

27 52 21

43 24 34

48 33 19

Intend to buy

Intend to sell

Intend to do nothing

32 41 27

33 47 20

24 49 2725 47 28

58 18 24

49 27 24

44 23 3333 26 41

63 22 15

52 30 18

51 30 1953 23 24

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020


Figure 3. Property sentiment by property statusOverall, how do you feel about the property market?

Figure 4. Property sentiment by property intentions Overall, how do you feel about the property market?

Figure 2. Property sentiment by ageOverall, how do you feel about the property market?

75+ years

55–74 years

40–54 years

25–39 years

18–24 years

34 36 303946

28 331836

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

42 29 29

27 51 2233 57 1039 40 2136 47 17

29 46 2432 42 2639 46 15

30 47 2344 37 1940 38 22

38 33 29

51 25 2443 35 22

38 2537

23 56 21

19 50 31

25 47 28

37 37 26

35 1748

34 49 17

33 51 15

29 44 26

40 37 23

42 30 28

27 41 32

31 44 25


0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


House price expectations Overall, more people are predicting house prices to decline or stay the same, and less are expecting them to rise over the next 12 months; however, expectations vary based on property status and location.

■ Down ■ Stay the same ■ Up ■ Not sure

11

2928

32

17

14

30

38

13

10

30

47

1013 13

10

25

41

31

55

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Q22019

Q32019

Q42019

Q12020

Q22020

Q32020

2026

26

Figure 5. Overall house price expectationsWhat do you think is likely to happen to the value of your property in the next 12 months?


Figure 7. House price expectations by state*What do you think is likely to happen to the value of your property in the next 12 months?

NSW Metro

VIC Metro

QLD Metro

WA Metro

SA Metro

27%24%56%57%32%24%

25%20%67%57%38%33%

29%19%57%57%44%36%

19%10%43%25%30%21%

22%17%56%46%45%36%

32%38%

11%15%

22%41%

35%40%

7%6%

18%36%

34%38%

9%8%

15%24%

38%51%

14%28%

15%26%

27%45%

4%12%

5%21%

29%25%

23%22%

33%25%

30%27%

17%27%

27%25%

28%27%

25%24%

22%31%

33%25%

30%36%

46%39%

30%29%

31%32%

36%31%

13%13%10%6%

13%9%

10%13%8%

10%17%7%

8%15%9%

10%19%10%

11%14%14%11%

10%14%

21%9%9%11%14%11%Q2 2019

Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

■ Up ■ Down ■ Stay the same ■ Not sure

24%19%

57%

48%38%

27%

26%

21%52%

48%

37%32%

27%20%

56%46%

40%

38%

26%38%

9%

12%14%

27%

33%

44%12%

12%

19%30%

37%46%

10%13%

22%

29%

37%29%

25%

31%33%

36%

32%

26%27%

32%

32%30%

18%20%

22%24%

24%

20%

13%13%

10%

10%14%

11%

8%

9%8%

8%

12%8%

17%14%

12%17%

14%

13%

Owner occupier

Investor

First Home Buyer

■ Up ■ Down ■ Stay the same ■ Not sure

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Figure 6. House price expectations by property statusWhat do you think is likely to happen to the value of your property in the next 12 months?

* Please note, survey sample sizes for other metro areas are smaller and are therefore not included.


Property intentionsME asked people in the property market what their property plans are over the next 12 months and found overall more people are planning to hold. Intentions vary by age, income and property status.

Figure 8. Overall property plansWhat are your property plans in the next 12 months?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

58

34

12

59

33 34

15

5865 61

3629

10 1014

63

31

11

■ Neither buy nor sell property ■ To buy property ■ To sell property

Q22019

Q32019

Q42019

Q12020

Q22020

Q32020


Figure 10. Property plans by incomeWhat are your property plans in the next 12 months?

Figure 9. Property plans by ageWhat are your property plans in the next 12 months?

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

■ To buy property ■ To sell property■ Neither buy nor sell property

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

75+ years

55–74 years

40–54 years

25–39 years

18–24 years

37%40%

51%34%45%41%

50%45%45%53%44%52%

37%28%38%39%29%29%

13%12%20%9%15%17%

22%35610%5

17%12%

13%12%

13%6%

9%11%15%

16%10%

16%

11%10%

15%18%

11%12%

11%11%

14%14%

11%9%

5%8%3%

6%7%

50%56%42%57%50%53%

46%49%48%42%50%38%

59%67%56%54%66%62%

80%81%72%78%78%76%

95%94%88%94%88%90%

15%18%21%22%24%26%

27%27%36%28%29%35%

37%31%41%39%28%29%

45%37%41%45%38%39%

45%39%38%36%45%43%

10%10%

10%9%9%6%

6%11%

14%9%7%

14%

14%5%

15%17%

12%16%

9%12%

16%18%

13%11%

10%14%14%22%

17%14%

78%75%71%71%

70%70%

68%67%57%64%67%53%

56%66%55%53%65%59%

50%55%51%49%57%54%

53%56%55%55%51%52%

Under $50,000

$50,001 to $75,000

$75,001 to $100,000

$100,001 to $125,000

Over $125,000

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020


Figure 11. Property plans by property statusWhat are your property plans in the next 12 months?

Owner occupier

Investor

First Home Buyer

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020 22%

18%27%28%24%22%

39%17%51%37%44%44%

51%42%51%46%42%38%

10%8%

15%17%

13%11%

39%17%51%

29%27%23%

1%3%

2%2%

1%

74%78%67%63%71%71%

39%17%51%48%42%39%

49%57%48%53%56%61%


Effect on financesChanges in house prices influenced respondents’ financial situation in a variety of ways, both positive and negative.

Figure 12. Overall effect on finances*What impact have recent property price movements in your area had on these aspects of your financial situation?

* Respondents had the choice of answering positive, negative or neutral. We have removed neutral responses from the chart for the sake of simplicity.

27%net negative 1%

net negative 4%

net negative 1%

28%

24%net negative 4% 28%



36%21%

38%21%

net positive 15%

net positive 17%

28%net negative 2%

net negative 3%

net negative 10%

30%


net negative 4% 27% 23%

net positive 4%22% 26%

Q2 2019

Q3 2019

37%20% net positive 17%Q4 2019

36%18% net positive 18%Q1 2020

Q2 2019

Q3 2019

net positive 9%20% 29%Q4 2019


Q2 2019

Q3 2019

25%net negative 3% 28% Q4 2019

20%net negative 8% 28% Q1 2020

Q2 2019

Q3 2019

33% net positive 6%27% Q4 2019


Q2 2019

Q3 2019


25%20% net positive 5%

net positive 20%

Q2 2020

net positive 1%


17%

net negative 8%

net negative 17% 34% Q2 2020

21%31% Q2 2020

21%25% Q2 2020

38%18% Q3 2020

20% 22%Q3 2020

18%31% Q3 2020

25%28% Q3 2020

22%23% Q3 2020


Sense of wealth

Willingness to spend on discretionary items like entertainment or eating out

Savings behaviour

General financial confidence

Debt situation

■ Negative ■ Positive


19%23%

27%

21%37%

29%

31%34%

31%

33%26%

23%

39%28%

36%

21%20%21%

■ Negative impact ■ Positive impact

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019

29% 28%Q1 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019

23% 31%Q1 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019

16% 33%Q1 2020

27%16% Q2 2020

31%25% Q2 2020

21% 21%Q2 2020

24%23% Q3 2020

24%28% Q3 2020

21% 19%Q3 2020

%

Owner occupier

Investor

First Home Buyer

23% 35%26% 26%

29% 22%

22% 41%34% 31%

31% 34%

42% 23%39% 24%

33%

Owner occupier

Investor

First Home Buyer28%Q2 2019

Q3 2019Q4 2019

36% 28%Q1 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019

24% 34%Q1 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019

19% 28%Q1 2020

17% 34%Q2 2020

25% 36%Q2 2020

21% 26%Q2 2020

29% 27%Q3 2020

31% 27%Q3 2020

25% 23%Q3 2020


Figure 13. Sense of wealth by property status*What impact have recent property price movements in your area had on this aspect of your financial situation?

Figure 14. General financial confidence by property status*What impact have recent property price movements in your area had on this aspect of your financial situation?

26%27%

27%

25%36%

33%

33%41%

32%

25%21%

20%

30%26%

27%

23%34% 22%

29% 19%

22% 22%

19%24%

Owner occupier

Investor

First Home BuyerQ2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020

Q1 2020

Q1 2020

41%14%

38%21%

28%16%

Q2 2020

Q2 2020

Q2 2020

17%32%

20%35%

17%27%

Q3 2020

Q3 2020

Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019


Figure 15. Willingness to spend on discretionary items by property status*What impact have recent property price movements in your area had on this aspect of your financial situation?

18%20%

25%

19%30%30%

24%23%

24%

16%

24%28%

30%26%

20%

37%32%

30%

20%26%

17%

Owner occupier

Investor

First Home BuyerQ2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019

19%Q1 2020

26%Q1 2020

27%Q1 2020

17%

26%

18%

21%Q2 2020

28%Q2 2020

13%Q2 2020

18%

24%

17%

22%Q3 2020

26%Q3 2020

19%Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019


Figure 16. Debt situation by property status*What impact have recent property price movements in your area had on this aspect of your financial situation?



20% 34%19% 33%

20% 29%

18% 42%28% 39%

24% 41%

23% 40%20% 47%

21% 40%

Owner occupier

Investor

First Home BuyerQ2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019

24% 37%Q1 2020

20% 37%Q1 2020

14 35%Q1 2020

38% 21%Q2 2020

42% 22%Q2 2020

29% 17%Q2 2020

21% 40%Q3 2020

19% 42%Q3 2020

15 33%Q3 2020

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019

Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019


Figure 17. Savings behaviour by property status*What impact have recent property price movements in your area had on this aspect of your financial situation?



Perceived worries Many worries eased quarter, in particular ‘I’m worried about how COVID-19 will impact the value of my property’ (down nine percentage points since the last quarter to 55%).

Figure 18. Overall worries and opportunities for property owners Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

64%

55%

62%

57%

55%

50%

64%

56%

49%

42%

44%

33%

39%

33%

48%

41%

44%

35%

40%

36%

I’m worried I’ll soon be forced to switch from an ‘interest only’ to ‘principle and interest’ home loan, increasing my loan repayments Q2 2019

I’m worried I will owe more on a property than it’s worth Q2 2019

I’m worried about the value of my property falling Q2 2019

I’m worried about how COVID-19 will impact the value of my property

Q2 2019

Q3 2019

Q4 2019

Q1 2020

Q2 2020

Q3 2020

Q2 2019

Q3 2019

Q4 2019

Q1 2020

Q2 2020

Q3 2020

Q2 2019

Q3 2019

Q4 2019

Q1 2020

Q2 2020

Q3 2020

Q2 2020

Q3 2020

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 100%

■ Agree


AffordabilityHousing affordability remains a key concern, with 90% agreeing it is a big issue, unchanged since the last quarter.

Figure 19. Housing affordability Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Housing affordability is a big issue in Australia.

93%

89%

92%

90%

90%

Housing affordability is a big issue in Australia Q3 2019

Q4 2019

Q1 2020

Q2 2020

Q3 2020

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 100%

■ Agree


Impact of recent events Events such COVID-19 pandemic and the economic downturn together with government support measures have influenced sentiment in the real estate market.

Figure 20. Influence of low interest rates Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Record low interest rates have made buying or investing in property more attractive to me.

Figure 21. Impact of the economic climate on refinancing Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: I’m worried it is going to become more difficult to refinance my home loan in this economy.

Figure 22. Price fall expectations due to COVID-19* Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: I expect to see property prices fall as a result of COVID-19.

* Please note, survey sample sizes for other metro and regional areas are smaller and are therefore not included

65%58%

67%75% 79%

66%55%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Total Owneroccupiedproperty

owner

Investorproperty

owner

First Home Buyer

Intendto buy

Intendto sell

Do nothing

Property status Property intentions■ Agree

54%

51%

56%

48%

50%

52%

54%

56%

Total Owner occupiedproperty owner

Investor property owner

■ Agree

Owneroccupiedpropertyowner

Investorpropertyowner

FirstHome Buyer

Intendto buy

Intendto sell

Donothing

Property status Property intentions

73% 73%75%

73% 73%69%

77%

71% 70%72%

81%

76%

68%

72%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

Location

MetroTotal Regional NSWMetro

VICMetro

QLDMetro

WAMetro

SAMetro

■ Agree

ME QUARTERLY PROPERTY SENTIMENT SNAPSHOT | 16* Please note, survey sample sizes for other metro and regional areas are smaller and are therefore not included

Figure 23. Buying consideration due to COVID-19* Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: I am spending a lot more time thinking about and looking at properties for sale because of COVID-19.

Figure 24. Hopes for bargain buys* Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: I hope to see lots of bargain properties for sale if the economy worsens.

Figure 25. Influence of new working from home arrangements on regional buys* Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: I think new working from home arrangements will influence more people to buy in regional areas.



FirstHome Buyer

Intendto buy

Intendto sell

Donothing

Property status Property intentionsLocation


VICMetro

QLDMetro

WAMetro

SAMetro

39% 41%35%

44%52%

35%

18%

32% 31%

43%50%

69%61%

18%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

■ Agree



FirstHome Buyer

Intendto buy

Intendto sell

Donothing



VICMetro

QLDMetro

WAMetro

SAMetro

66% 66% 65% 69% 71%

56% 59% 64%57%

66%

82% 79%

61% 57%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

■ Agree



FirstHome Buyer

Intendto buy

Intendto sell

Donothing



VICMetro

QLDMetro

WAMetro

SAMetro

68% 67% 71% 69%75%

59% 56%62%

69% 69% 65%71% 70% 67%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

■ Agree


Figure 26. Consideration for regional buys to save money and improve lifestyle* Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: ‘I am more likely to consider buying property in a regional area after COVID-19 to save money and improve my lifestyle.

Figure 27. Interest in Homebuilder grant* Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: I am interested in applying for the new HomeBuilder grant ($25K towards a renovation or a new build).

Figure 28. Opinion on Homebuilder increasing activity* Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: I think the Home BuilderGrant will significantly increase activity in the property market.



FirstHome Buyer

Intendto buy

Intendto sell

Donothing



VICMetro

QLDMetro

WAMetro

SAMetro

45% 42%

52%47% 48%

39%

25%

37%45%

60%54%

50%

37%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

■ Agree



FirstHome Buyer

Intendto buy

Intendto sell

Donothing



VICMetro

QLDMetro

WAMetro

SAMetro

40% 41%37% 40%

46% 46%

33%41%

52%58%

54%

24%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

■ Agree



FirstHome Buyer

Intendto buy

Intendto sell

Donothing



VICMetro

QLDMetro

WAMetro

SAMetro

58% 56%63%

51%

61%58% 59%

52%57% 56%

66% 65%60%

55%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

■ Agree


Figure 29. Confidence since COVID-19 restrictions have eased* Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Now that COVID-19 restrictions are easing, I feel more confident about buying or selling property.



FirstHome Buyer

Intendto buy

Intendto sell

Donothing



VICMetro

QLDMetro

WAMetro

SAMetro

50% 47%

57%48% 47%

53%46%

38%

48% 47%

62% 63%58%

39%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

■ Agree

me quarterly property sentiment snapshot. · the me quarterly property sentiment report provides...

Documents