rate monitor report & quarterly u.s. property & casualty...

Prepared by Aon Benfield Analytics

Rate Monitor Report and Quarterly U.S. Property & Casualty Profitability Analysis Fourth Quarter 2015

Aon Benfield | Analytics | Market Analysis Proprietary & Confidential 2

Table of contents

Section 1 Rate trends

Section 2 Quarterly performance metrics and analysis

Section 3 Year-to-date (YTD) performance metrics and analysis

Section 4 Additional information


Overall rate trends

The pricing environment in commercial casualty, commercial property, and personal lines all grew incrementally more competitive

– Some of the competition is due to a continued trend of non-U.S. based groups and Lloyd’s moving into or further penetrating the U.S. primary insurance market

– It is also a reflection of existing U.S. carriers increasing their appetite and expanding into new lines of business

Lines of business under the most rate pressure include E&S, commercial property, workers’ compensation, and larger professional liability accounts

Some carriers are looking to deploy capital to areas of insurance with less rate pressure including smaller professional liability accounts, A&H, cyber, and environmental

In most segments, rate increases were below long-term cost trends

For the first time in several years, carriers have cited a lack of discipline from competitors

While the U.S. market is challenging, rates have generally held better than international markets


Aon Benfield commercial casualty rate indices

For the first time in almost five years, the majority of carriers reported an overall rate decline in commercial casualty lines – Overall, commercial casualty lines were

down slightly, anywhere from -0.2% to -3.5% – Cyber liability remained the lone bright spot

for carriers with rates up measurably

Competition on large accounts remains elevated – Carriers are now taking defensive measures

to lock in their larger accounts by offering rate decreases and early renewals

The increased competition in commercial casualty is coming from existing insurers increasing their appetite as well as new entrants to the market (including non-U.S. based insurance / reinsurance groups and Lloyd’s)

Standard: Chubb Limited., American International Group, Inc., Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., Travelers Companies Inc., XL Group plc, W.R. Berkley Corporation and CNA Financial Corporation Specialty: Arch Capital Group Ltd, Allied World Assurance Company Holdings, AG, Markel Corporation, RLI Corp., W.R. Berkley Corporation and CNA Financial Corporation. Some groups report a Commercial Line rate change which includes both property and casualty.

Aon Benfield commercial casualty indices

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2008

, Q4

2009

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2009

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2009

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2009

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2015

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All Co. Avg

Specialty Co. Avg

Standard Co. Avg


Comparison of commercial casualty rate indices

Commercial casualty rate indices Casualty lines rate changes by quarter as reported

Most carriers are reporting that rates are not keeping pace with long term cost trends, except on “poorer performing accounts”

Some carriers continue to seek niches where business is more adequately priced including accident & health, smaller professional liability accounts as well as cyber and environmental liability

-16%

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

2008

, Q4

2009

, Q1

2009

, Q2

2009

, Q3

2009

, Q4

2010

, Q1

2010

, Q2

2010

, Q3

2010

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2011

, Q1

2011

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2011

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2011

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2012

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2012

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2012

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2013

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2013

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2014

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2014

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Aon Benfield All Co AvgCIAB (GL)CLIPSMarket Scout

Aon Benfield Company Sample

Year Qtr CIAB (GL)Market Scout CLIPS All Co. Avg

Specialty Co. Avg

Standard Co. Avg

2008 Q4 -5.8% -9.0% -3.0% -3.6% -4.4% -2.6%2009 Q1 -4.2% -8.0% 0.0% -0.6% -0.8% -0.5%2009 Q2 -4.9% -6.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 1.2%2009 Q3 -4.7% -5.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.9%2009 Q4 -5.6% -4.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5%2010 Q1 -4.9% -4.3% 0.0% -0.1% -1.0% 0.7%2010 Q2 -6.3% -3.3% -1.0% -1.5% -2.5% -0.1%2010 Q3 -5.4% -3.7% -1.0% -1.2% -1.7% -0.6%2010 Q4 -2.2% -4.7% -1.0% -1.2% -2.1% -0.6%2011 Q1 -2.8% -4.7% 0.0% 0.1% -0.5% 0.4%2011 Q2 -1.0% -3.7% 1.5% 1.3% 0.0% 1.8%2011 Q3 0.3% -1.3% 2.0% 2.5% 0.9% 3.3%2011 Q4 2.2% 0.7% 3.0% 3.7% 2.0% 4.6%2012 Q1 3.4% 2.0% 5.0% 5.1% 4.3% 5.4%2012 Q2 4.3% 3.7% 6.0% 6.1% 5.6% 6.6%2012 Q3 4.2% 4.7% 6.0% 7.2% 6.6% 7.7%2012 Q4 3.3% 4.7% 7.0% 7.0% 6.8% 7.3%2013 Q1 4.5% 4.7% 7.0% 6.5% 6.4% 7.2%2013 Q2 3.5% 5.0% 6.0% 6.2% 5.9% 7.1%2013 Q3 2.9% 4.3% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.4%2013 Q4 2.3% 3.7% 5.0% 5.1% 5.1% 5.8%2014 Q1 1.5% 2.7% 4.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.7%2014 Q2 0.1% 2.3% 3.0% 3.9% 3.4% 4.1%2014 Q3 0.7% 1.3% 3.0% 3.4% 2.9% 3.6%2014 Q4 -0.5% 0.7% 2.0% 2.3% 2.9% 1.8%2015 Q1 -2.3% 0.3% 2.0% 2.0% 2.8% 1.3%2015 Q2 -3.1% 0.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.6% 1.0%2015 Q3 -2.9% 0.0% -0.2% 0.6% 1.1% 0.7%2015 Q4 -3.5% -3.0% -- -0.2% -0.2% -0.1%

Annual2008 -10.0% -11.1% -5.0% -5.8% -6.2% -4.7%2009 -4.9% -6.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5%2010 -4.7% -4.0% -0.8% -1.0% -1.8% -0.1%2011 -0.3% -2.3% 1.6% 1.9% 0.6% 2.5%2012 3.8% 3.8% 6.0% 6.3% 5.8% 6.8%2013 3.3% 4.4% 6.0% 6.0% 5.8% 6.6%2014 0.4% 1.8% 3.0% 3.5% 3.4% 3.6%2015 -2.9% -0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 1.3% 0.7%


Comparison of personal lines rate indices

Personal lines rate indices Personal lines rate changes by quarter as reported

The pricing environment in personal lines has continued to grow incrementally more competitive

Homeowner rates continued their downward trend, driven by the absence of wind driven events and additional market capacity

Personal auto rates were generally flat, compared to up slightly in previous quarters

Source: The Aon Benfield Homeowners rate index is based on approved rate filings for the top twenty insurance groups in each state.

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

2009

, 4Q

2010

, 1Q

2010

, 2Q

2010

, 3Q

2010

, 4Q

2011

, 1Q

2011

, 2Q

2011

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2011

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2012

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2012

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2012

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2013

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2014

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Aon Benfield All Co Avg (HO only - Filed)Market Scout Barometer (Personal Lines)

Year QtrMarket Scout

(Personal Lines)Aon Benfield (HO-

only)2009 Q4 -- 6.0%2010 Q1 -- 7.0%2010 Q2 -- 7.6%2010 Q3 -- 7.4%2010 Q4 -- 6.4%2011 Q1 -- 6.4%2011 Q2 -- 6.0%2011 Q3 -- 6.4%2011 Q4 -- 6.8%2012 Q1 1.7% 6.7%2012 Q2 1.7% 6.8%2012 Q3 2.7% 6.9%2012 Q4 3.7% 7.4%2013 Q1 3.7% 7.6%2013 Q2 3.7% 6.8%2013 Q3 3.3% 6.9%2013 Q4 3.0% 6.3%2014 Q1 2.3% 5.7%2014 Q2 3.3% 5.3%2014 Q3 3.0% 4.1%2014 Q4 2.7% 3.6%2015 Q1 2.0% 3.7%2015 Q2 1.0% 2.6%2015 Q3 1.7% 3.1%2015 Q4 -0.7% 2.7%

Annual2008 -- 3.5%2009 -- 6.0%2010 -- 6.4%2011 -- 6.8%2012 2.4% 7.4%2013 3.4% 6.3%2014 2.8% 3.6%2015 1.0% 2.7%


Comparison of commercial property rate indices

Commercial property rate indices Commercial property lines rate changes by quarter as reported

During 2015, overall commercial property rates are down approximately 5%, but the larger accounts continue to remain under more intense pressure

Similar to casualty, some carriers are beginning to shift their business towards smaller accounts to achieve more stable results

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2009

, 4Q

2010

, 1Q

2010

, 2Q

2010

, 3Q

2010

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2011

, 1Q

2011

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2011

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2011

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CIAB (Comm Prop - Written)

Market Scout Barometer (Comm Prop - Written)

Year QtrCIAB (Comm Prop -

Written)

Market Scout Barometer (Comm

Property)2009 Q4 -5.3% -5.0%2010 Q1 -5.6% -4.3%2010 Q2 -7.0% -4.0%2010 Q3 -5.2% -4.0%2010 Q4 -4.9% -4.7%2011 Q1 -2.0% -4.7%2011 Q2 2.4% -3.0%2011 Q3 3.0% -0.3%2011 Q4 5.7% 2.0%2012 Q1 6.7% 3.0%2012 Q2 7.6% 4.7%2012 Q3 6.0% 6.3%2012 Q4 5.7% 5.0%2013 Q1 6.8% 5.7%2013 Q2 6.0% 5.7%2013 Q3 3.9% 5.3%2013 Q4 2.0% 3.7%2014 Q1 0.0% 2.7%2014 Q2 -2.7% 2.3%2014 Q3 -1.7% 1.3%2014 Q4 -2.3% 1.0%2015 Q1 -4.2% 1.0%2015 Q2 -5.5% 0.0%2015 Q3 -5.4% 0.7%2015 Q4 -3.6% -2.3%

Annual2008 -10.6% -13.1%2009 -3.8% -5.8%2010 -5.6% -4.3%2011 2.3% -1.5%2012 6.5% 4.8%2013 4.7% 5.1%2014 -1.7% 1.8%2015 -4.6% -0.2%


Cumulative commercial property rate indices

The above rate indices may not yet fully reflect some of the rate decreases reported by carriers in commercial property which range from 5 – 9%

– For the first time in several years, carriers have cited a lack of discipline from competitors in some lines of business, e. g. construction

However, most carriers reported that U.S. rates have generally fared better than international rates which experienced double digit rate declines in some lines (e.g. energy)

Cumulative commercial property rate indices

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

CIAB (Comm Prop - Written)

Market Scout Barometer (Comm Prop - Written)


Table of contents






Profitability analysis observations

In the fourth quarter, just over one-half (51%) of the P&C groups beat their initial quarterly consensus earnings estimates (3Q2016: 65%)

– Several sectors (Large Cap, Small Cap and Reinsurance) had 70% or more groups beating their consensus estimates

– Less than 30% of the companies in the Specialty and Personal sectors beat their initial quarterly consensus estimates

The YTD combined ratio (CR) increased marginally to 93.5% (vs. 92.1% 2014) despite overall favorable loss reserve development in five of the six sectors and a modest amount of catastrophe losses

– The largest increase in the CR was a 6.0pp increase in the Reinsurance sector, which can be primarily attributed to losses from the Tianjin port explosion and less favorable reserve development

– The CR of the Large Cap sector (increase of 2.0pp), was skewed by one group which recognized significant adverse reserve development in the fourth quarter of 2015

– The Small Cap sector saw the largest decrease (3.4pp), driven by increased favorable reserve development, lower catastrophe losses and lower attritional loss ratios


Profitability analysis observations

It appears the industry as a whole is reaching the inflection point in reserve releases

– Many P&C groups reported lower reserve redundancies and a number of groups reported adverse reserve development in 2015

Annualized ROE slipped to 7.6% (vs. 9.4% 4Q 2014)

– Profitability was impacted by decreased investment income and unrealized losses, increased expenses associated with M&A as well as the aforementioned Tianjin port explosion, winter storms and less favorable reserve development

Total equity (excluding Berkshire) decreased 5.3% YTD overall

– Driven by; share repurchases and dividends of $32B, unrealized losses of $17B and foreign exchange losses of $4B, which more than offset net income of $26B

Overall earned premiums for 2015 increased 2.3% YOY

– Primary drivers of growth included acquisitions and organic growth in Accident & Health, as well as Excess & Surplus lines

– Due to declining pricing, the Reinsurance sector was the only sector to have negative growth


Miss Beat

% Beat EPS

Target

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Large Cap (6)

Commercial (7)

Personal (9)

Specialty (14)

Small Cap Specialty (7)

Reinsurance (10)

Industry (53) 51

70

71

29

22

57

27

7

5

4

2

4

5

26

3

2

10

7

3

1 83

4Q 2015 actual vs. estimated EPS by sector

Note: There are 54 insurance and reinsurance groups included in this report. However, an EPS estimate was not available for 1 group. The number next to each sector represents the number of groups in that sector. “Miss” or “Beat” refers to the number of groups that did not meet (Miss) or exceeded (Beat) the consensus EPS estimate.

Missed Target Est. Beat Target Est.

EPS estimated vs. actual


4Q 2015 profitability – 54 insurance and reinsurance groups

Notes: 1) Quarterly % change year over year (i.e. Percentage change from 4th Quarter 2014 vs. 4th Quarter 2015) 2) Represents a sample of 11 groups which focus on “Commercial Casualty” business 3) NWP (Trailing Twelve Months) / Equity

Equity (ex Berkshire)

Equity P&C Earned Premium Change¹

NWP / Equity3 Combined Ratio

Comm Lines & Casualty Rate Change2

QuarterChng

0.930.97

1.00 0.99 0.97

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015

4.3%

2.1%

4.1%

0.3%

4.3%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015

91.6% 92.1%94.7% 93.3% 93.9%

50%

65%

80%

95%

110%

Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015

($Bi

llion)

2.3% 2.0%1.1% 0.6%

-0.2%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015

($Bi

llion)

+1.0% -0.5% -0.6% -0.6%

550

575

600

625

Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015

+1.2% -2.0% -1.6% -3.0%

300

325

350

375

400

Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015

QuarterChng


CY Quarter YOY Point Change

4Q 2015 profitability – 54 insurance and reinsurance groups

Note: CY Quarter = Current Year Quarter; YOY Point Change = Percentage point change from 4th Quarter 2014 vs. 4th Quarter 2015

Return on Equity P&C Earned Premium Change Combined Ratio

Reserve Development to Premium Catastrophe Losses to Premium Combined Ratio ex-Cat & Reserve Development

+0.2

+4.2

+0.5

+1.5

-5.9

+0.5

-3.2

50% 65% 80% 95% 110% 125%

SCSpec

Spec

Industry

Reins

Pers

Comm

LargeCap

+2.9

-1.1

-1.4

-1.5

-1.8

-2.7

-5.8

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Comm

Spec

Industry

LargeCap

Reins

Pers

SCSpec

-10.6%

+9.2

+0.5

-0.3

+0.4

+1.1

-4.8

+2.5

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

LargeCap

Pers

Comm

Industry

SCSpec

Spec

Reins

+1.3

+7.3

+1.3

+2.2

-1.1

+1.0

+3.8

50% 65% 80% 95% 110% 125%

Pers

LargeCap

SCSpec

Industry

Spec

Comm

Reins

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Reins

LargeCap

Spec

SCSpec

Industry

Pers

Comm

+6.7

+1.3

+0.7

+1.3

+0.0

-0.5

-0.3

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Pers

Industry

Comm

LargeCap

SCSpec

Spec

Reins

YOY Chng

YOY Chng

YOY Chng

YOY Chng

YOY Chng


Table of contents






YTD 4Q 2015 profitability – 54 insurance and reinsurance groups

Notes: 1) Quarterly % change year over year (i.e. Percentage change from YTD 4th Quarter 2014 vs. YTD 4th Quarter 2015) 2) Represents a sample of 11 groups which focus on “Commercial Casualty” business 3) NWP (Trailing Twelve Months) / Equity

Equity P&C Earned Premium Change1

NWP / Equity3 Combined Ratio

Comm Lines & Casualty Rate Change2

Equity (ex Berkshire)

+5.3% -5.3%

325

350

375

400

Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015

YTD Chng

0.990.97

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

Q4 2014 Q4 2015

5.6%

2.6%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Q4 2014 Q4 2015

92.1% 93.5%

50%

65%

80%

95%

110%

125%

Q4 2014 Q4 2015

($Bi

llion)

YTD Chng

3.5%

0.9%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2014 2015

($Bi

llion)

+6.4% -0.7%

550

575

600

625

Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015


CY Quarter YOY Point Change

YTD 4Q 2015 profitability – 54 insurance and reinsurance groups Return on Equity P&C Earned Premium Change Combined Ratio

Reserve Development to Premium Catastrophe Losses to Premium Combined Ratio ex-Cat & Reserve Development

+1.1

-1.1

-1.2

+0.6

+0.1

+0.7

+2.6

50% 65% 80% 95% 110% 125%

Spec

Pers

SCSpec

Industry

Comm

LargeCap

Reins

+1.9

+2.0

-1.3

-3.4

+1.4

+0.1

+6.0

50% 65% 80% 95% 110% 125%

Pers

LargeCap

Comm

SCSpec

Industry

Spec

Reins

+2.3

+1.4

-1.0

-1.8

-2.0

-2.2

-3.1

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

SCSpec

Comm

LargeCap

Industry

Reins

Pers

Spec

+1.4

-0.0

-1.0

-0.8

+0.2

-0.8

+2.2

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

LargeCap

Pers

Comm

SCSpec

Industry

Spec

Reins

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Reins

LargeCap

Industry

Spec

SCSpec

Pers

Comm

+3.0

-0.4

+0.5

-1.5

+1.2

-0.1

-0.2

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Pers

Comm

Industry

SCSpec

Reins

LargeCap

Spec

YOY Chng

YOY Chng

YOY Chng

YOY Chng

YOY Chng


Table of contents






Objectives

A primary objective of this report is to provide an update on U.S. P&C rate trends

– Casualty rate trends are derived from a variety of public sources and represent Aon Benfield’s best estimate of casualty rate changes

– The Aon Benfield Homeowners rate index is based on approved rate filings for the top twenty insurance groups in each state

– The Aon Benfield rate change indices are compared to other rate change indices including: CIAB, CLIPS and Market Scout

The report also provides insight into the profitability of the U.S. P&C Industry

– The U.S. P&C Industry is represented by 54 public insurance and reinsurance groups

– The groups are predominantly U.S. non-life and have been categorized into six sectors


Insurance and reinsurance groups by sector

Notes: 1) Estimated EPS not available 2) First Acceptance Corporation and Global Indemnity plc financial results were unavailable at the time of this report, therefore they were excluded

Sector Group Sector Group Sector GroupLargeCap American International Group, Inc. SCSpec AMERISAFE, Inc. Comm Cincinnati Financial CorporationLargeCap Allstate Corporation SCSpec Baldwin & Lyons, Inc. Comm CNA Financial CorporationLargeCap Berkshire Hathaway Inc. SCSpec EMC Insurance Group Inc. Comm Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc.LargeCap Chubb Corporation SCSpec Kingsway Financial Services Inc.1 Comm Old Republic International CorporationLargeCap Progressive Corporation SCSpec Employers Holdings, Inc. Comm XL Group plcLargeCap Travelers Companies, Inc. SCSpec National Interstate Corporation Comm Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited

SCSpec United Fire Group, Inc. Comm Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.Spec Allied World Assurance Company Holdings, AG SCSpec Hallmark Financial Services, Inc.Spec American Financial Group, Inc. Reins Aspen Insurance Holdings LimitedSpec AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. Pers Donegal Group Inc. Reins AXIS Capital Holdings LimitedSpec Arch Capital Group Ltd. Pers Erie Indemnity Company Reins Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd.2

Spec Argo Group International Holdings, Ltd. Pers Kemper Corporation Reins Everest Re Group, Ltd.Spec Assurant, Inc. Pers Horace Mann Educators Corporation Reins PartnerRe Ltd.Spec ProAssurance Corporation Pers Infinity Property and Casualty Corporation Reins RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd.Spec Markel Corporation Pers Mercury General Corporation Reins Validus Holdings, Ltd.Spec Navigators Group, Inc. Pers State Auto Financial Corporation Reins Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd.Spec OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. Pers Safety Insurance Group, Inc. Reins Maiden Holdings, Ltd.Spec RLI Corp. Pers Hilltop Holdings Inc. Reins Alleghany CorporationSpec Selective Insurance Group, Inc.Spec W.R. Berkley CorporationSpec White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.


Contacts

Stephen Mildenhall Global CEO of Analytics Aon Singapore Innovation & Analytics Center +65.6231.6481 [email protected]

Brian Alvers Head of Americas Actuarial Aon Benfield Analytics +1.312.381.5355 [email protected]

Greg Heerde Head of Americas Analytics Aon Benfield Analytics +1.312.381.5364 [email protected]

Mike McClane Market Analysis - Americas Aon Benfield Analytics +1.215.751.1596 [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]





About Aon Benfield

Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world’s leading reinsurance intermediary and full service capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world’s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals’ expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com.

© Aon Benfield Inc. 2016. This document is intended for general information purposes only and should not be construed as advice or opinions on any specific facts or circumstances. This analysis is based upon information from sources we consider to be reliable, however Aon Benfield does not warrant the accuracy of the data or calculations herein. The content of this document is made available on an “as is” basis, without warranty of any kind. Aon Benfield disclaims any legal liability to any person or organization for loss or damage caused by or resulting from any reliance placed on that content. Members of the Aon Benfield Analytics will be pleased to consult on any specific situations and to provide further information regarding the matters discussed herein.

Sources: Commercial Lines Insurance Pricing Survey (CLIPS), Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers (CIAB), Market Scout, SNL Financial, LC and Aon Benfield Analytics

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