measuring and benchmarking competitiveness presentation by · 2016-03-29 · measuring and...
TRANSCRIPT
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Ireland’s Experience with
Measuring and Benchmarking
Competitiveness
Presentation by
Declan Hughes,
Head, Competitiveness Division, Forfás
& Secretariat, National Competitiveness Council
at the launch of the
OECD-MENA Competitiveness Centre, Tunisia
31March 2010
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Agenda
1. Irish Economy in Context
2. Benchmarking Competitiveness
3. Ireland’s National Competitiveness Council
4. Competitiveness Pyramid
5. Changes in Focus over Time
6. Conclusions
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National Training Agency
Tanaiste and
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Agenda
1. Irish Economy in Context
2. Benchmarking Competitiveness
3. Ireland’s National Competitiveness Council
4. Competitiveness Pyramid
5. Changes in Focus over Time
6. Conclusions
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A Snapshot of the Irish Economy
A small island, off an island, off the North West Coast of Europe but…
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A Snapshot of the Irish Economy
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Rapid Transformation of the Irish Economy
MAY 1997
1988 1997 2004 2010
• Modern enterprise base
• Strong investment
(infrastructure, education,
health, research)
• Positive demographics
• Cost base rapidly realigning
with EU trading partners
But
• Domestic and International
recession
• High private debt
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Ireland’s Economic Success – Key Factors
► Pro-active industrial policy – export oriented MNCs
► Change in outlook since 1960’s – GATT/WTO
► EU Membership – Structural Funds, Single Market, EMU
► Investment in education and skills
► Investment in critical infrastructure
► Social partnership agreements in the 1980s
► Tax reform – investment and work
► Restructuring of the economy
► Development of R & D activities
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Our success as an exporting country is of vital importance
9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Neth
erl
ands
Hung
ary
Irela
nd G
NP
Luxe
mbo
urg
Irela
nd G
DP
Germ
any
Sw
eden
Fin
land
Den
mar
k
Pola
nd
EU
-15
Ital
y
Port
ug
al
Fra
nce UK
Spain
Exports to Non-EU Countries Exports to EU Countries
Source: Eurostat, External Trade
Exports of goods, intra-EU and extra-EU (as a % of GDP), 2008
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How have we been doing?
10
Contribution of Net Exports to Irish Economic Growth, 2001 - 2009
Source: NCC Calculations; Central Statistics Office, Annual National Accounts
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Q1+Q2+Q3
Net Exports Investment Government Consumption
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11
11
Source: Central Bank of Ireland; January 2000=100.
Harmonised Competitiveness Indicator, 2000-2009
Cost competitiveness has weakened in recent years
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
Jan-0
0
Jul-
00
Jan-0
1
Jul-
01
Jan-0
2
Jul-
02
Jan-0
3
Jul-
03
Jan-0
4
Jul-
04
Jan-0
5
Jul-
05
Jan-0
6
Jul-
06
Jan-0
7
Jul-
07
Jan-0
8
Jul-
08
Jan-0
9
Jul-
09
Axis
Title
Nominal HCI Real HCI
Imp
rov
em
en
tD
ete
rio
rati
on
Impact of Irish Inflation
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How have we been doing?
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Services
Total
Merchandise
Ireland’s Share of World Trade: Total, Merchandise and Services (%), 2000-08
Source: World Trade Organisation
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13
There is no return to domestic led growth Our debt burden grew rapidly and we are now highly indebted
€0
€10,000
€20,000
€30,000
€40,000
€50,000
€60,000
Slo
venia
Italy
Finla
nd
Gre
ece
Belg
ium
Port
uga
l
France
Euro
are
a-1
3
Aust
ria
Germ
any
Spain
Neth
erl
ands
Irela
nd
Luxe
mbo
urg
2009 Q4 2004
Source: ECB
Household Borrowing per Capita, December 2009
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Government debt is rising sharply
Source: Eurostat, Economy and Finance European Commission, Autumn Economic Forecasts December 2009
General Government Consolidated Debt (as a % of GDP), 2000-2011F
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
F
2011
F
Euroarea Ireland UK
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Irish exports holding up relatively well as world trade contracts in 2009
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Japan
Germ
any
Italy
Euro
are
a
OE
CD
Fra
nce
US
Canada
UK
Irela
nd
2004-2007 2008 2009F 2010F
Percentage Change in Volume of Exports of Goods and Services
Source; OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report, March 2009. ESRI, QEC, Spring 2009.
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Current Competitiveness
► Ireland retains a wide range of competitive
strengths
►Cost competitiveness is beginning to improve
►Growing unemployment a new long term challenge
►High levels of outward migration a key risk
►Government resolute focus on:
• Restoring stability to the public finances
• Repairing the banking system
• Restoring competitiveness and investing in creating new
employment opportunities.
► Irish economy is adjusting to the new realities
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Agenda
1. Irish Economy in Context
2. Benchmarking Competitiveness
3. Ireland’s National Competitiveness Council
4. Competitiveness Pyramid
5. Changes in Focus over Time
6. Conclusions
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Measuring and Benchmarking Competitiveness – early actions
Focus of Forfás competitiveness benchmarking 1995 (drawing
on M Porter’s Competitive Advantage of Nations)
►direct and indirect costs, e.g., labour, electricity
► indirect costs and quality of infrastructure, e.g., ports,
roads, workforce
►company level competitive capability and facilities
► inter-firm competitiveness
► fiscal and regulatory framework
►coherence among government ministries/agencies in
developing/implementing policy on wide range of areas
Main focus on costs, prices and real exchange rate
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Forfás long-term enterprise policy review 1996, key
dimensions of competitiveness analysis
►competitiveness potential - costs, education, skills…
►competitiveness performance- trade, investment
►competitiveness process - strategic management
Identified need for Council on Competitiveness
► involving the social partners
►benchmark progress annually & identify areas of weakness
►make recommendations on improving competitiveness
Measuring and Benchmarking Competitiveness – early actions cont’d
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Agenda
1. Irish Economy in Context
2. Benchmarking Competitiveness
3. Ireland’s National Competitiveness Council
4. Competitiveness Pyramid
5. Changes in Focus over Time
6. Conclusions
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National Competitiveness Council (NCC)
►Established 1997, independent body reporting to the
Prime Minister
►Provide a rigorous and agreed approach to the
monitoring and assessment of Ireland competitiveness
• Annual benchmarking report
• Annual assessment of key competitiveness issues
►Operate under auspices of Forfás, providing research,
benchmarking and technical expertise
►Membership of the Council is a mix of industry, unions,
academia and the public sector, with Government
Ministries in attendance
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NCC First Benchmark Report
►1998 – pragmatic definition of competitiveness as
‘…success in international markets that translates into
general increases in welfare’
►Prices, costs and effective exchange rates only one
element of longer-term competitiveness assessment
► Ireland ‘competing’ in two spheres:
• international trade
• mobile investment
►Sustainable economic growth dependent on performance
of enterprises in international markets, which is a
function of the competitiveness of the operating
environment and inputs in the country
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NCC First Benchmark Report, cont’d
►125 indicators, 29 countries/EU/OECD, six thematic areas
• Human resource development (35)
• Business Services (28)
• Infrastructure (46)
• SME competitiveness and performance (6)
• Public administration (5)
• Socioeconomic performance (5)
►Eleven priority policy areas incl: education and labour
markets, trade, EMU, costs, tax, innovation, telecom and
information society
Over time recognised need to clarify linkages and
inputs/outcomes – Competitiveness Pyramid
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Agenda
1. Irish Economy in Context
2. Benchmarking Competitiveness
3. Ireland’s National Competitiveness Council
4. Competitiveness Pyramid
5. Changes in Focus over Time
6. Conclusions
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The NCC Competitiveness Pyramid
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Methodology
Use internationally comparable metrics
• OECD, the EU, the UN and the WTO
• specialist international bodies, WEF and IMD
• national sources Central Bank, the CSO, ESRI, Forfás
Benchmark against 17 countries
• Eurozone peers (Finland, France, Ger, Italy, Nethers and Spain)
• other non-Eurozone (Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK),
• two newer EU members (Hungary and Poland)
• five non-European global leaders/similar size countries (Japan,
South Korea, New Zealand, Singapore and the US)
• Relevant peer group average, OECD-28, EU-15 or Eurozone average
• Averages weighted country population or GDP as relevant
• ‘Traffic light’ system
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Sustainable Growth
• National Income
• Quality of Life
• Environmental
Sustainability
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Benchmarking Ireland’s Performance Essential Conditions
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Essential Conditions
Business Performance
- Investment
- Trade
Productivity and
Innovation
- Productivity
- Innovation
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Prices and Costs
- Prices
- Pay Costs
- Non-Pay Costs
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Labour Supply
- Overview
- Employment
- Labour Supply
Characteristics
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Benchmarking Ireland’s Performance Policy Inputs
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Business Environment - Taxation - Finance - Regulation & Competition - Labour Market Regulation - Social Capital
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Physical and Economic Infrastructure - Investment - Transport - ICT - Housing
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Knowledge
Infrastructure
- Pre-primary and
primary
- Secondary
- Tertiary and LLL
- R&D
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Agenda
1. Irish Economy in Context
2. Benchmarking Competitiveness
3. Ireland’s National Competitiveness Council
4. Competitiveness Pyramid
5. Changes in Focus over Time
6. Conclusions
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Changes in Indicators Used
►Benchmark indicators do change to better
reflect stage of development
• definitions of success change over time, reflecting
economic and social context and understanding of
issues
• less focus on input indicators to outcomes
• less reliance on perception indicators
• use of more composite indicators
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Changes in Indicators Used
►Recent reports, more emphasis on indicators
assessing essential inputs and sustainable growth
outcomes
• sustainable growth - more emphasis on income, environment
and quality of life
• essential conditions - more emphasis on pay and non-pay
costs and on business performance indicators relating to
trade, investment, employment and entrepreneurship
• policy inputs - greater focus on competition and regulation,
taxation and finance, with reduction in some areas such as
cluster development, business formation management and
innovation, in part due to data availability issues.
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How the Council’s Focus and Policy Advice has evolved
Reports serve two broad purposes
• identify priority areas for action to improve competitiveness;
• provide reference material for policy makers in refining actions
needed to improve competitiveness.
1998-2000
• Council warned ‘competitive position not yet based on solid
foundations...danger signs such as skill shortages, infrastructural
bottlenecks, lack of investment in telecommunications’
• input to significant national decisions on National Development
Plan for capital investment, National Spatial Strategy, expansion in
funding for education, training and R&D
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How the Council’s Focus and Policy Advice has evolved cont’d
2001-2005, the Council highlighted:
• tightening of the labour market
• increases in costs crowding out internationally trading
activities
• weakening export performance
• policy advice focus on productivity growth, skills and
innovation, prices and regulation and competition in
markets
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How the Council’s Focus and Policy Advice has evolved cont’d
2006-2007
• Council concerns as to he un-sustainability of
economic growth
• rapid rise in private sector debt
• construction and domestic demand as the main drivers
of growth
• advice focused on the key messages of firm-level
productivity, innovation and costs and competition in
locally trading services.
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How the Council’s Focus and Policy Advice has evolved cont’d
2008-2009
• Council role with Forfás and others in monitoring and
building consensus on the dynamics of change and
options for corrective action – 2 high-level
conferences 2008, 7 statements in 2009
• Mid-2009. Noted progress on the public finances and
the banking stabilisation but called for focus on
• cost competitiveness
• wage adjustment
• lowering energy costs
• supporting competition
• investment prioritisation
• R&D
• Ireland’s reputation
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How the Council’s Focus and Policy Advice has evolved cont’d
►End of 2009 – Council recommended policy focus on macro
issues of restoring stability to public finances and banking
and focus on costs and measures to boost productivity
growth and export performance
►Focus of advice
• return to productivity and export-led growth
• broaden the tax base to provide a more sustainable basis for the
public finances
• greater competition in locally trading services
• investment in education and support innovation
• investment in productive capacity of cities as drivers of growth
• allow necessary adjustment to happen in the property market
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Agenda
1. Irish Economy in Context
2. Benchmarking Competitiveness
3. Ireland’s National Competitiveness Council
4. Competitiveness Pyramid
5. Changes in Focus over Time
6. Conclusions
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Conclusions
Competitiveness measurement initially based on costs and labour and
exchange rates but understanding of the dynamics of enterprise and
longer term development broadened that perspective:
• enterprises rather than nations are basis of competition
• comparative productivity levels at the firm level matter to winning
market share
• that the productivity performance of each of the inputs to
enterprises matter
• as pace of globalisation increases, basis for comparative advantage
and for competitiveness will be dynamic
• competitiveness is important not just for its own sake, but to
achieve our broader national economic and social development
objectives
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Conclusions cont’d
Benchmarking is useful to inform policymaking,
notwithstanding:
• natural lags in collating comparable official statistics across
selected countries;
• given uniqueness of each country, not realistic or even desirable
for any country to seek to outperform other countries on all
measures
• customise indicators to stage of development and circumstances
• are no generic strategies to achieve national competitiveness
• trade, investment even competitiveness between countries is not
a zero-sum game
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Conclusions cont’d
Measuring and benchmarking competitiveness
►has a precise objective – to identify weaknesses
and to determine corrective actions
► is needed at national level, especially for
governments, trade unions and business
associations to share a common and agreed
baseline assessment of potential and
performance
►helps identify the key areas for policy action
and to learn from the best practice as to
solutions and policy options.
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Conclusions cont’d
Systematic measuring and benchmarking of competitiveness
• helps identify most important areas for a broader and deeper
analysis of key issues
• helps identify linkages between indicators, policy domains and
policy actors
Benchmarking is not to duplicate or substitute for the work
of existing advisory bodies or ministries, rather
• add value in terms of providing common base for analysis and
discussion
• provide a common platform for action
• basis for ensuring that we are dealing with the most important
issues
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Conclusions cont’d
Do not have to be the best at everything to be
competitive, but we do need to have the right
combinations of policies so that we create the
right environment for long term sustainable
growth